scholarly journals Nomogram for Predicting COVID-19 Disease Progression Based on Single-Center Data: Observational Study and Model Development (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Fan ◽  
Bo Hao ◽  
Shuo Yang ◽  
Bo Shen ◽  
Zhixin Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Lasso Regression ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Calibration Curves ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Critical Patients

BACKGROUND In late December 2019, a pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan and spread worldwide rapidly. Currently, no specific medicine is available to treat infection with COVID-19. OBJECTIVE The aims of this study were to summarize the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 175 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection who were hospitalized in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 1 to January 31, 2020, and to establish a tool to identify potential critical patients with COVID-19 and help clinical physicians prevent progression of this disease. METHODS In this retrospective study, clinical characteristics of 175 confirmed COVID-19 cases were collected and analyzed. Univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to select variables. Multivariate analysis was applied to identify independent risk factors in COVID-19 progression. We established a nomogram to evaluate the probability of progression of the condition of a patient with COVID-19 to severe within three weeks of disease onset. The nomogram was verified using calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS A total of 18 variables were considered to be risk factors after the univariate regression analysis of the laboratory parameters (<i>P</i>&lt;.05), and LASSO regression analysis screened out 10 risk factors for further study. The six independent risk factors revealed by multivariate Cox regression were age (OR 1.035, 95% CI 1.017-1.054; <i>P</i>&lt;.001), CK level (OR 1.002, 95% CI 1.0003-1.0039; <i>P</i>=.02), CD4 count (OR 0.995, 95% CI 0.992-0.998; <i>P</i>=.002), CD8 % (OR 1.007, 95% CI 1.004-1.012, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), CD8 count (OR 0.881, 95% CI 0.835-0.931; <i>P</i>&lt;.001), and C3 count (OR 6.93, 95% CI 1.945-24.691; <i>P</i>=.003). The areas under the curve of the prediction model for 0.5-week, 1-week, 2-week and 3-week nonsevere probability were 0.721, 0.742, 0.87, and 0.832, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the model had good prediction ability within three weeks of disease onset. CONCLUSIONS This study presents a predictive nomogram of critical patients with COVID-19 based on LASSO and Cox regression analysis. Clinical use of the nomogram may enable timely detection of potential critical patients with COVID-19 and instruct clinicians to administer early intervention to these patients to prevent the disease from worsening.

scholarly journals Nomogram for Predicting COVID-19 Disease Progression Based on Single-Center Data: Observational Study and Model Development

10.2196/19588 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. e19588
Author(s):  
Tao Fan ◽  
Bo Hao ◽  
Shuo Yang ◽  
Bo Shen ◽  
Zhixin Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Lasso Regression ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Calibration Curves ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Critical Patients

Background In late December 2019, a pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan and spread worldwide rapidly. Currently, no specific medicine is available to treat infection with COVID-19. Objective The aims of this study were to summarize the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 175 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection who were hospitalized in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 1 to January 31, 2020, and to establish a tool to identify potential critical patients with COVID-19 and help clinical physicians prevent progression of this disease. Methods In this retrospective study, clinical characteristics of 175 confirmed COVID-19 cases were collected and analyzed. Univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to select variables. Multivariate analysis was applied to identify independent risk factors in COVID-19 progression. We established a nomogram to evaluate the probability of progression of the condition of a patient with COVID-19 to severe within three weeks of disease onset. The nomogram was verified using calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic curves. Results A total of 18 variables were considered to be risk factors after the univariate regression analysis of the laboratory parameters (P<.05), and LASSO regression analysis screened out 10 risk factors for further study. The six independent risk factors revealed by multivariate Cox regression were age (OR 1.035, 95% CI 1.017-1.054; P<.001), CK level (OR 1.002, 95% CI 1.0003-1.0039; P=.02), CD4 count (OR 0.995, 95% CI 0.992-0.998; P=.002), CD8 % (OR 1.007, 95% CI 1.004-1.012, P<.001), CD8 count (OR 0.881, 95% CI 0.835-0.931; P<.001), and C3 count (OR 6.93, 95% CI 1.945-24.691; P=.003). The areas under the curve of the prediction model for 0.5-week, 1-week, 2-week and 3-week nonsevere probability were 0.721, 0.742, 0.87, and 0.832, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the model had good prediction ability within three weeks of disease onset. Conclusions This study presents a predictive nomogram of critical patients with COVID-19 based on LASSO and Cox regression analysis. Clinical use of the nomogram may enable timely detection of potential critical patients with COVID-19 and instruct clinicians to administer early intervention to these patients to prevent the disease from worsening.

scholarly journals A Prognostic Model for Patients With Gastric Signet Ring Cell Carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 153303382110279
Author(s):  
Qinping Guo ◽  
Yinquan Wang ◽  
Jie An ◽  
Siben Wang ◽  
Xiushan Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Signet Ring Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Signet Ring Cell ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Signet Ring ◽  
Ring Cell ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Background: The aim of our study was to develop a nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (GSRC). Methods: GSRC patients from 2004 to 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly assigned to the training and validation sets. Multivariate Cox regression analyses screened for OS and CSS independent risk factors and nomograms were constructed. Results: A total of 7,149 eligible GSRC patients were identified, including 4,766 in the training set and 2,383 in the validation set. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that gender, marital status, race, AJCC stage, TNM stage, surgery and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for both OS and CSS. Based on the results of the multivariate Cox regression analysis, prognostic nomograms were constructed for OS and CSS. In the training set, the C-index was 0.754 (95% CI = 0.746-0.762) for the OS nomogram and 0.762 (95% CI: 0.753-0.771) for the CSS nomogram. In the internal validation, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.758 (95% CI: 0.746-0.770), while the C-index for the CSS nomogram was 0.762 (95% CI: 0.749-0.775). Compared with TNM stage and SEER stage, the nomogram had better predictive ability. In addition, the calibration curves also showed good consistency between the predicted and actual 3-year and 5-year OS and CSS. Conclusion: The nomogram can effectively predict OS and CSS in patients with GSRC, which may help clinicians to personalize prognostic assessments and clinical decisions.

scholarly journals Factors Associated with Achievement of Inactive Disease in Children with Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Treated with Etanercept

2012 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
NICOLETTA SOLARI ◽  
ELENA PALMISANI ◽  
ALESSANDRO CONSOLARO ◽  
ANGELA PISTORIO ◽  
STEFANIA VIOLA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis ◽  
Clinical Remission ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Inactive Disease ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Univariate Analyses

Objective.To evaluate the rate of inactive disease in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) treated with etanercept, and to identify clinical characteristics associated with attainment of inactive disease.Methods.Clinical charts of patients who were given etanercept between January 2002 and January 2011 were evaluated retrospectively. For each patient, all visits from initiation of etanercept to the last followup evaluation in which the patient was still receiving etanercept were examined to establish whether the patient had reached the state of inactive disease and to identify the first visit in which inactive disease was documented. Clinical characteristics associated with achievement of inactive disease were determined through univariate analyses and Cox regression procedures.Results.A total of 173 patients who received etanercept for a median of 2.2 years (range 0.5–10.5 yrs) were studied. Eighty-seven patients (50.3%) achieved inactive disease after a median of 0.6 years (range 0.1–2.5 yrs) of therapy. At last followup evaluation, 85 patients (49.1%) still had inactive disease and 70 (40.5%) were in clinical remission on medication. The probability of achievement of inactive disease after 6, 12, and 24 months of therapy was 24%, 46% and 57%, respectively. On Cox regression analysis, the attainment of inactive disease was associated with lack of wrist involvement and an age at disease onset < 3.6 years.Conclusion.Around half of our patients with JIA treated with etanercept achieved a state of inactive disease. Children who lacked wrist involvement and were younger at disease onset had a greater likelihood of achieving inactive disease.

scholarly journals Cox Regression Analysis of 1739 Emergency Trauma Patients

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Shen ◽  
Feng Xu ◽  
Du Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Oxygen Saturation ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Revised Trauma Score ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Trauma Score

Abstract BACKGROUND: Trauma is a damage caused by physical harm from external source. It has been one of the major causes of mortality. The purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors related to mortality among emergency trauma patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective study in trauma center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University. The data were obtained from trauma database with patients registered from November 1, 2016 to November 30, 2019.Shapiro–Wilk test, Mann-Whitney test and Likelihood-ratio Chi squared test were used to assess the survival pattern. Cox regressions were performed to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) of variables for death. RESULTS: The total 1739 emergency trauma patients, 44 (2.53%) died during the study period and 1695 (97.47%) were survival. Through univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis, three independent risk factors for emergency death were screened out: pulse (Crude HR: 0.97, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.96-0.98; Adjuste HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.06), pulse oxygen saturation (Crude HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.97; Adjuste HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.97) and Revised Trauma Score (Crude HR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.65-0.74; Adjuste HR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.64-0.97).CONCLUSION: The survival outcome of emergency trauma patients was influenced by many factors. Pulse, pulse oxygen saturation (SpO2 ) and Revised Trauma Score (RTS) were the independent risk factors for mortality. Accurate analysis and judgment of the risk factors can improve cure efficiency and long-term survival rate.

Coagulopathy on the first postoperative day predicting the long-term survival of traumatic brain injury patients

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxing Cui ◽  
Shunnan Ge ◽  
Yingwu Shi ◽  
Xun Wu ◽  
Jianing Luo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Long Term Survival ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Underlying Risk

Abstract Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify the relationship between coagulopathy during the perioperative period (before the operation and on the first day after the operation) and the long-term survival of TBI patients undergoing surgery, as well as to explore the predisposing risk factors that may cause perioperative coagulopathy.Methods: This retrospective study included 447 TBI patients who underwent surgery from January 1, 2015 to April 25, 2019. Clinical parameters, including patient demographic characteristics, biochemical tests, perioperative coagulation function tests (before the operation and on the first day after the operation) and intraoperative factors were collected. Log-rank univariate analysis and Cox regression models were conducted to assess the relationship between perioperative coagulopathy and the long-term survival of TBI patients. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the underlying risk factors for perioperative coagulopathy.Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified age, AIS(head) = 5, GCS ≤ 8, systolic pressure at admission < 90 mmHg and postoperative coagulopathy (all P < 0.05) as independent risk factors for survival following TBI; we were the first to identify postoperative coagulopathy as an independent risk factor. According to multivariate logistic regression analysis, for the first time, abnormal ALT and RBC at admission, preoperative coagulopathy, infusion of colloidal solution > 1100 mL and intraoperative bleeding > 950 mL (all P < 0.005) were identified as independent risk factors for postoperative coagulation following surgery after TBI.Conclusions: Those who suffered from postoperative coagulopathy due to TBI had a higher hazard for poor prognosis than those who did not. Closer attention should be paid to postoperative coagulopathy and more emphasis should be placed on managing the underlying risk factors.

scholarly journals Perioperative risk factors for occurrence of myasthenia gravis after thymectomy in patients with thymoma

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 519-526
Author(s):  
Xin Zhang ◽  
Bin Li ◽  
Jianyong Zou ◽  
Chunhua Su ◽  
Haoshuai Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Myasthenia Gravis ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Previous History ◽  
Tumour Resection ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract OBJECTIVES The goal of this study was to identify the relationship between clinical characteristics and the occurrence of postoperative myasthenia gravis (PMG) in patients with thymomas and to further identify the relationship between PMG and prognosis. METHODS Thymoma patients who had surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between July 2004 and July 2016 were reviewed and those who had no previous symptoms of myasthenia gravis were selected for further investigation. In total, 229 patients were included in the study; their clinical characteristics were gathered and analysed. RESULTS Among the 229 patients, 19 (8.3%) had PMG. The time between the operation and the onset of myasthenia gravis was 134 days on average (range 2–730 days). Patients experiencing PMG showed a lower rate of complete thymoma resection (73.7% vs 91.4%; P = 0.014) and total thymectomy (63.2% vs 82.9%; P = 0.035) compared with those who did not. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression revealed that thymomectomy [odds ratio (OR) 2.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–7.77; P = 0.047] and incomplete tumour resection (OR 3.79, 95% CI 1.20–11.98; P = 0.023) were associated with the occurrence of PMG. Multivariable Cox regression showed that the PMG was not related to overall survival (P = 0.087). CONCLUSIONS This study revealed that incomplete tumour resection and thymomectomy were independent risk factors for PMG in thymoma patients with no previous history of myasthenia gravis.

scholarly journals Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors of Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Spearman Correlation ◽  
Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Objective: To investigate the epidemiobgical characteristics of the elderly with atrial fibrillation (AF) in age, gender, the types of AF and relative causes. And To analyze the risk factors of persistent AF (PeAF), then use them to guide to prevent and treat for AF in the elderly.Methods: Collect the data of elderly patients with AF who were admitted to Liaoning People's Hospital from September 1, 2016 to September 30, 2017, and summarize the epidemiological characteristics of AF in the elderly. The risk factors for PeAF were analyzed by Spearman correlation analysis and mltivariate logistic regression analysis. Result: 1. In the elderly, the number of AF cases increase with age. The group of 75-84 years old was the largest part. The number of older females was larger than male in all ages. It was important to pay more attention to old woman with AF. 2.In the elderly, nonvalvular atrial fibrillation is popular. The top three causes of AF in the elderly were CHD, hypertension and heart failure. In the elderly, comorbidities were frequent, and the management was a major therapeutic objective. 3.CRP, 1eft atria diameter were the independent risk factors for PeAF in the elderly.

scholarly journals Characteristic and Early Discontinuation of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder Trials Registered on ClinicalTrials.gov

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanxia Luo ◽  
Qiong Guo ◽  
Liu Yang ◽  
Yifan Cheng ◽  
Youlin Long ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Obsessive Compulsive Disorder ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Drug Trials ◽  
Obsessive Compulsive ◽  
Early Discontinuation ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Compulsive Disorder ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Objective: This study aimed to analyze the characteristics and reasons of early discontinuation of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov.Methods: OCD trials and relevant publications were searched on ClinicalTrials.gov and PubMed, respectively. The characteristics and details regarding the timely publication of trials were recorded. Cox regression analysis was used to explore factors associated with the early discontinuation of OCD trials.Results: The analysis included 298 OCD therapy trials. Most investigations recruited &lt;100 patients and were more likely to involve adults. Of all OCD studies identified, 67.8% were randomized and 61.4% were blind (single- or double-blind). Universities and hospitals were recorded as the two primary locations in the majority of trials. A total of 155 trials (52%) were completed; however, only 29% of those were published. Of the published trials, &gt;70% were published at least 1 year after completion. Behavioral therapy trials were the most common type of major treatment-aimed OCD trials (39%), followed by drug trials (35.1%) and device/procedure trials (24.7%). The univariate Cox regression analysis indicated that drug trials [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.21–5.43], absence of collaborators (HR = 3.87, 95% CI: 1.62–9.26), and sponsorship by industry (HR = 3.97, 95% CI: 1.49–10.53) were risk factors for early discontinuation of OCD trials. Further multivariate Cox regression showed that drug trials (HR = 3.93, 95% CI: 1.71–9.08) and absence of collaborators (HR = 5.17, 95% CI: 1.97–13.54) were independent risk factors for early trial discontinuation of OCD trials. The sensitivity analysis confirmed these results. Non-drug trials (OR = 3.32, 95% CI: 1.21–9.11), absence of collaborators (OR = 3.25, 95% CI: 1.10–9.60), and non-blinded trials (OR = 5.23, 95% CI: 1.05–26.2) were independent risk factors for unreported results in registry.Conclusion: The diagnosis and prevention of OCD are rarely investigated in trials. Underreporting and delayed reporting remain major problems. The type of intervention and participation of collaborators are associated with early discontinuation of OCD trials.

Effect of cumulative dexamethasone dose during concomitant chemoradiation on lymphopenia in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e14533-e14533
Author(s):  
Stephen Ahn ◽  
Jae-Sung Park ◽  
Jin Ho Song ◽  
Sin-Soo Jeun ◽  
Yong-Kil Hong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
Concomitant Chemoradiation ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

e14533 Background: Lymphopenia frequently occurs after concomitant chemoradiation (CCRT) in patients with glioblastoma (GBM) and is associated with worse overall survival (OS). A few studies have tried to identify risk factors for lymphopenia; however, the results were not clear. We aimed to identify potential risk factors for lymphopenia, focusing on the use of dexamethasone to control cerebral edema in patients with GBM. Methods: The electronic medical records of 180 patients with newly diagnosed GBM treated at our institution between 2009 and 2017 were retrospectively examined. Acute lymphopenia was defined as TLC (total lymphocyte count) less than 1,000 cells/mm3 at 4 weeks after completion of CCRT. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for lymphopenia, and Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for OS. Results: Of the 125 eligible patients, 40 patients (32.0%) developed acute lymphopenia. Female sex and median daily dexamethasone dose > 2mg after initiation of CCRT were independent risk factors for acute lymphopenia on multivariate analysis. Acute lymphopenia, extent of surgical resection, and performance status were associated with OS; however, dexamethasone use itself was not an independent risk factor for poor OS. Conclusions: Female sex, median daily dexamethasone dose > 2 mg after initiation of CCRT until four weeks after completion of CCRT may be associated with acute lymphopenia. However, dexamethasone use itself did not affect OS in patients newly diagnosed with GBM. These results should be validated by further prospective studies controlling for other confounding factors.

Incomplete stent apposition of low-profile visualized intraluminal support stents in the treatment of cerebral aneurysms

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 591-597
Author(s):  
Huan Zhang ◽  
Xiaoping Gao ◽  
Hui Liang ◽  
Yi Ren
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Cerebral Aneurysms ◽  
Thromboembolic Events ◽  
Incomplete Stent Apposition ◽  
Low Profile ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

ObjectiveThis study retrospectively analyzed the risk factors, management strategies, and complications of incomplete stent apposition (ISA) of low-profile visualized intraluminal support (LVIS) stents after initial deployment in the treatment of cerebral aneurysms.MethodsThe clinical characteristics of ISA or wall apposition (WA) of LVIS stent after initial deployment were analyzed. The risk factors of ISA were identified using univariate logistic regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The clinical characteristics of ISA following different management strategies were also shown.ResultsThe retrospective study enrolled 303 patients with 315 LVIS stent-assisted aneurysms. Fifty-nine patients with 59 stents showed ISA after initial deployment. At the end of the study, the presence of ISA was only observed in eight patients (2.5%). The stent-subtended arc angle (>90) and the aneurysm of the internal carotid artery (ICA) were associated with ISA. The stent-subtended arc angle (>90) and stent size (4.5*20 mm) were independent risk factors of ISA. The incidence of thromboembolic events in the ISA group was significantly higher than that in the WA group. After the treatment of ISA, there was no significant difference in good outcomes between patients with ISA and those with WA after initial deployment.ConclusionsISA is more likely to occur at tortuous vessels. The stent-subtended arc angle (>90) and LVIS size (4.5*20 mm) were independent risk factors of ISA. ISA led to significantly increased incidence of thromboembolic events. However, ISA after initial deployment did not affect the patient's prognosis.

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