scholarly journals Number needed to treat for net effect of anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation

EP Europace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
WY Ding ◽  
JM Rivera-Caravaca ◽  
F Marin ◽  
G Li ◽  
V Roldan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Major Bleeding ◽  
Real World ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Baseline Risk ◽  
Number Needed To Treat ◽  
Bleeding Events ◽  
Risk Increase

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background The benefit of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in atrial fibrillation (AF) must be balanced against any potential risk of harm. We aimed to evaluate the "NNT for net effect" (NNTnet) using CARS in anticoagulated patients with AF. Methods We used patient-level data from the real-world Murcia AF Project and AMADEUS clinical trial. Baseline risk of stroke was calculated using CARS while major bleeding was estimated from prior studies. Stroke and major bleeding events at 1-year were determined. NNTnet was calculated as a reciprocal of the net effect of ARR with OAC (NNTnet= 1 / (ARRstroke - ARIbleeding)). Results 3,511 patients were included (1,306 [37.2%] real-world patients and 2,205 [62.8%] clinical trial). The absolute 1-year stroke risk was similar across both cohorts and the main results are presented in the Table. In both cohorts, the NNTnet was significantly lower in patients with an excess stroke risk of ≥2% by CARS. Among real-world patients with a very high (>10%) baseline stroke risk, the use of OAC was associated with an ARRstroke of 10.9% and ARIbleeding of 1.2%, generating an overall NNTnet of 11. In the clinical trial, the use of OAC was associated with an ARRstroke of 11.0% and ARIbleeding of 0.6%, generating an overall NNTnet of 10. Conclusion Overall, the NNTnet approach in AF incorporates information regarding baseline risk of stroke and major bleeding, and relative effects of OAC with the potential to include multiple additional outcomes and weighting of events based on their perceived effects by individual patients. This simple and intuitive metric may be useful to improve communication and optimise the patient-centred management of AF. NNT in Real-World and Clinical Trial Real-World Clinical Trial Ischaemic stroke risk at 1-year Baseline risk without anticoagulation (%) 5.7% (95% CI 5.5 - 6.0) 5.1% (95% CI 4.9 - 5.3) Anticoagulation-mediated risk (%) 1.7% (95% CI 1.1 - 2.6) 1.3% (95% CI 0.8 - 1.8) Absolute risk reduction (%) 4.0% 3.8% NNTbenefit 25 27 Major bleeding risk at 1-year Baseline risk without anticoagulation (%) 2.3% 2.3% Anticoagulation-mediated risk (%) 3.3% (95% CI 2.4 - 4.4) 3.9% (95% CI 3.1 - 4.8) Absolute risk increase (%) 1.0% 1.6% NNTharm 100 63 NNTnet 34 46

scholarly journals Prediction of Residual Stroke Risk in Anticoagulated Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: mCARS

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (15) ◽  
pp. 3357
Author(s):  
Wern Yew Ding ◽  
José Miguel Rivera-Caravaca ◽  
Francisco Marin ◽  
Christian Torp-Pedersen ◽  
Vanessa Roldán ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Real World ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Oral Anticoagulants ◽  
Absolute Risk Reduction ◽  
The Real ◽  
Anticoagulated Patients

Our ability to evaluate residual stroke risk despite anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation (AF) is currently lacking. The Calculator of Absolute Stroke Risk (CARS) has been proposed to predict 1-year absolute stroke risk in non-anticoagulated patients. We aimed to determine whether a modified CARS (mCARS) may be used to assess the residual stroke risk in anticoagulated AF patients from ‘real-world’ and ‘clinical trial’ cohorts. We studied patient-level data of anticoagulated AF patients from the real-world Murcia AF Project and AMADEUS clinical trial. Individual mCARS were estimated for each patient. None of the patients were treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants. The predicted residual stroke risk was compared to actual stroke risk. 3503 patients were included (2205 [62.9%] clinical trial and 1298 [37.1%] real-world). There was wide variation of CARS for each category of CHA2DS2-VASc score in both cohorts. Average predicted residual stroke risk by mCARS (1.8 ± 1.8%) was identical to actual stroke risk (1.8% [95% CI, 1.3–2.4]) in the clinical trial, and broadly similar in the real-world (2.1 ± 1.9% vs. 2.4% [95% CI, 1.6–3.4]). AUCs of mCARS for prediction of stroke events in the clinical trial and real-world were 0.678 (95% CI, 0.598–0.758) and 0.712 [95% CI, 0.618–0.805], respectively. mCARS was able to refine stroke risk estimation for each point of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in both cohorts. Personalised residual 1-year absolute stroke risk in anticoagulated AF patients may be estimated using mCARS, thereby allowing an assessment of the absolute risk reduction of treatment and facilitating a patient-centred approach in the management of AF. Such identification of patients with high residual stroke risk could help target more aggressive interventions and follow-up.

Number needed to treat for net effect of anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation: Real‐World vs . Clinical Trial Evidence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wern Yew Ding ◽  
José Miguel Rivera‐Caravaca ◽  
Francisco Marín ◽  
Guowei Li ◽  
Vanessa Roldán ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Real World ◽  
Number Needed To Treat ◽  
Clinical Trial Evidence ◽  
Trial Evidence

scholarly journals Novel tool for predicting residual stroke risk in atrial fibrillation: mCARS

EP Europace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
WY Ding ◽  
JM Rivera-Caravaca ◽  
F Marin ◽  
C Torp-Pedersen ◽  
V Roldan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Real World ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
The Real ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Aggressive Interventions

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Recently, CARS was proposed to predict 1-year absolute stroke risk in non-anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to determine whether a modified CARS (mCARS) may be used to assess the residual stroke risk in anticoagulated AF patients. Methods We studied patient-level data of anticoagulated AF patients from the real-world Murcia AF Project and AMADEUS clinical trial. Individual mCARS was estimated for each patient using an estimated 64% risk reduction with anticoagulation. Results 3,503 patients were included (2,205 [62.9%] clinical trial and 1,298 [37.1%] real-world). In the clinical trial cohort, the median age was 71 (IQR 65-77) and CHA2DS2-VASc score 3 (IQR 2-4). In the real-world cohort, the median age was 76 (IQR 70-81) and CHA2DS2-VASc score 4 (IQR 3-5). At 1-year, there were 40 and 31 stroke events in the clinical trial and real-world cohorts, respectively. Average predicted residual stroke risk by mCARS was identical to actual stroke risk (1.8 [±1.8%] vs. 1.8% [95% CI, 1.3-2.4]) in the clinical trial, and broadly similar in the real-world (2.1 [±1.9%] vs. 2.4% [95% CI, 1.6-3.4]). Additionally, these values were comparable across the subgroups stratified by CHA2DS2-VASc score in both cohorts. AUCs of mCARS for prediction of stroke events in the clinical trial and real-world were 0.678 (95% CI, 0.598-0.758) and 0.712 (95% CI, 0.618-0.805), respectively. In an exploratory analysis, we found that mCARS was able to refine stroke risk estimation for each point of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in both cohorts. Conclusion Personalised residual 1-year absolute stroke risk in anticoagulated AF patients may be estimated using mCARS. Such patients with high residual stroke risk may benefit from more aggressive interventions and follow-up. Absolute 1-year stroke risk Clinical Trial Real-World Median (IQR) Range Median (IQR) Range CHA2DS2-VASc score 0 NA 0.9 (0.6 - 1.3) 0.2 - 1.4 CHA2DS2-VASc score 1 1.1 (0.7 - 1.4) 0.2 - 2.0 1.4 (0.9 - 1.7) 0.2 - 13.0 CHA2DS2-VASc score 2 2.0 (1.5 - 2.4) 0.3 - 10.8 2.1 (1.5 - 2.6) 0.3 - 10.8 CHA2DS2-VASc score 3 2.6 (2.1 - 3.4) 0.4 - 13.3 2.8 (2.5 - 3.4) 0.9 - 13.3 CHA2DS2-VASc score 4 3.6 (2.8 - 5.6) 0.3 - 18.1 3.9 (3.3 - 5.0) 1.1 - 21.0 CHA2DS2-VASc score 5 6.7 (3.6 - 14.0) 1.9 - 20.9 4.8 (3.9 - 12.2) 1.2 - 21.0 CHA2DS2-VASc score 6 13.6 (5.5 - 15.8) 2.4 - 21.8 12.8 (4.8 - 16.7) 2.2 - 21.8 CHA2DS2-VASc score 7 15.7 (14.5 - 17.4) 4.5 - 21.9 15.6 (5.9 - 17.5) 4.1 - 23.5 CHA2DS2-VASc score 8 16.5 (14.0 - 18.5) 13.1 - 20.3 16.9 (15.7 - 19.5) 13.6 - 21.0 IQR, interquartile range; NA, not applicable.

scholarly journals Stroke risk based on classification of atrial fibrillation: real-world vs clinical trial

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
W.Y Ding ◽  
J.M Rivera-Caravaca ◽  
F Marin ◽  
V Roldan ◽  
G.Y.H Lip
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Real World ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Clinical Classification ◽  
Temporal Rhythm ◽  
Anticoagulated Patients ◽  
Trial Participants

Abstract Background The most widely accepted clinical classification of atrial fibrillation (AF) is according to temporal rhythm-based patterns, reflecting the notion that most patients initially suffer from transient episodes that prolong over time due to atrial substrate remodelling as the disease progresses. Therefore, it may be speculated that patients with extended episodes of “continuous” AF (persistent, long-standing persistent and permanent AF) may be at higher risk of stroke complications compared to paroxysmal AF (pAF). However, the risk of stroke according to clinical classification of AF remains poorly defined. In this study, we assessed the impact of AF type on stroke risk in patients with AF from “real-world” and “clinical trial” cohorts. Methods Post-hoc analysis of patient-level data from the Murcia AF Project and AMADEUS trial. All patients were anticoagulated. Patients were grouped into those with pAF and non-pAF. pAF was defined as AF that terminates spontaneously or with intervention within seven days of onset. Non-pAF was defined as AF that lasted longer than seven days, including persistent, long-standing persistent and permanent AF subtypes. Study endpoint was the incidence rate of ischaemic stroke. A modified CHA2DS2-VAS“c” score that applied one additional point for a “c” criterion of continuous AF (i.e. non-pAF) was calculated. Results 5,917 patients were included; 1,361 (23.0%) real-world and 4,556 (77.0%) clinical trial. Real-world patients had a median age of 76 (interquartile range [IQR] 71–81) years with 51.3% females compared to a median age of 71 (IQR 64–77) years with 33.5% females among clinical trial participants. Baseline demographics were comparable in both groups in the real-world cohort but clinical trial participants with non-pAF were older, predominantly male and had more comorbidities compared to those with pAF. Crude stroke rates were comparable between the groups in real-world patients (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.72 [95% CI, 0.37–1.28], p=0.259) though clinical trial participants with non-pAF (vs. pAF) had a significantly higher crude rate of stroke events (IRR 4.66 [95% CI, 2.41–9.48], p<0.001). Using multivariable cox regression analysis, AF type was not independently associated with stroke risk in the real-world (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.41 [95% CI, 0.80–2.50], p=0.239) and clinical trial (adjusted HR 1.17 [95% CI, 0.62–2.20], p=0.621) cohorts, after accounting for known risk factors using the CHA2DS2-VASc score. Using receiver operating characteristic curves analysis, we found no significant improvement in the CHA2DS2-VAS“c” compared to CHA2DS2-VASc score in either cohort (p>0.05). Conclusion Overall, there was no association between the temporal rhythm-based patterns of AF and stroke risk among anticoagulated patients, suggesting that this should not be a consideration when assessing the need for anticoagulation in AF. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Abstract 261: Applying Clinical Trial Data to Real-World: Apixaban, Dabigatran, and Rivaroxaban

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alpesh Amin ◽  
Michael Stokes ◽  
Ning Wu ◽  
Elyse Gatt ◽  
Dinara Makenbaeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Clinical Outcome ◽  
Intracranial Hemorrhage ◽  
Major Bleeding ◽  
Real World ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
The Real

BACKGROUND: Data from randomized controlled trials and a real-world sample of non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients were combined to estimate the absolute effect of each new oral anticoagulant (NOAC, apixaban, dabigatran, and rivaroxaban) versus warfarin on stroke and major bleeding rates in real-world clinical practice. METHODS: Non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients were selected from Medco healthplans during 2007-2010. Reference rates for stroke and major bleeding excluding intracranial hemorrhage (to avoid double counting) were calculated for real-world Medco patients during warfarin use. Real-world event rates for NOACs were estimated by multiplying the corresponding relative risk from the randomized clinical trials by each reference rate. Absolute risk reductions and numbers needed to treat (NNT) or numbers needed to harm (NNH) for each NOAC vs. warfarin were then estimated. Reduction in net clinical outcome was calculated by summing the absolute risk reductions for stroke and major bleeding excluding intracranial hemorrhage for each NOAC versus warfarin. RESULTS: Each NOAC resulted in a reduction in stroke events compared with warfarin in the real-world (TABLE). Apixaban was the only NOAC to reduce the rate of major bleeding excluding intracranial hemorrhage compared with warfarin. The NNT to avoid one net clinical outcome (stroke plus major bleeding excluding intracranial hemorrhage) per year was 32 and 84 for apixaban and dabigatran, respectively. Rivaroxaban resulted in an increase in net clinical outcome (NNH=166). CONCLUSIONS: If relative risk reductions from randomized clinical trials persist in the real-world, apixaban would result in the greatest clinical benefit versus warfarin of all NOACs in terms of stroke and major bleeding excluding intracranial hemorrhage events avoided.

scholarly journals A Systematic Review of Network Meta-Analyses and Real-World Evidence Comparing Apixaban and Rivaroxaban in Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 107602961989876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan R. Hill ◽  
Belinda Sandler ◽  
Evelien Bergrath ◽  
Dušan Milenković ◽  
Ajibade O. Ashaye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Major Bleeding ◽  
Real World ◽  
Health Care Expenditure ◽  
Bleeding Events ◽  
Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Real World Evidence ◽  
Evidence Review ◽  
Major Bleeding Events ◽  
Meta Analyses

There is no direct evidence comparing the 2 most commonly prescribed direct oral anticoagulants, apixaban and rivaroxaban, used for stroke prevention in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). A number of network meta-analyses (NMAs) of randomized control trials and real-world evidence (RWE) studies comparing the efficacy, effectiveness, and safety of apixaban and rivaroxaban have been published; however, a comprehensive evidence review across the available body of evidence is lacking. In this study, we aimed to systematically review and evaluate the clinical outcomes of apixaban and rivaroxaban using a combination of data gleaned from both NMAs and RWE studies. The review identified 21 NMAs and 5 RWE studies. The data demonstrated that apixaban was associated with fewer major bleeding events compared to rivaroxaban. There was no difference in the efficacy/effectiveness profiles between these treatments. Bleeding is a serious complication of anticoagulation therapy for the management of NVAF, and is associated with increased rates of hospitalization, morbidity, mortality, and health-care expenditure. The majority of studies in this comprehensive evidence review suggests that apixaban has a lower risk of major bleeding events compared to rivaroxaban in patients with NVAF.

Long-term bleeding risk prediction in ‘real world’ patients with atrial fibrillation: Comparison of the HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding risk scores

2017 ◽  
Vol 117 (10) ◽  
pp. 1848-1858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Roldán ◽  
Vicente Vicente ◽  
Mariano Valdés ◽  
Gregory Y. H. Lip ◽  
María Asunción Esteve-Pastor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Major Bleeding ◽  
Real World ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Bleeding Events ◽  
Bleeding Score ◽  
Better Than

SummaryRisk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) based on clinical factors alone generally have only modest predictive value for predicting high risk patients that sustain events. Biomarkers might be an attractive prognostic tool to improve bleeding risk prediction. The new ABCBleeding score performed better than HAS-BLED score in a clinical trial cohort but has not been externally validated. The aim of this study was to analyze the predictive performance of the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED score in an independent “real-world” anticoagulated AF patients with long-term follow-up. We enrolled 1,120 patients stable on vitamin K antagonist treatment. The HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding scores were quantified. Predictive values were compared by c-indexes, IDI, NRI, as well as decision curve analysis (DCA). Median HAS-BLED score was 2 (IQR 2–3) and median ABC-Bleeding was 16.5 (IQR 14.3–18.6). After 6.5 years of follow-up, 207 (2.84%/year) patients had major bleeding events, of which 65 (0.89%/year) had intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) and 85 (1.17%/year) had gastrointestinal bleeding events (GIB). The c-index of HAS-BLED was significantly higher than ABC-Bleeding for major bleeding (0.583 vs 0.518; p=0.025), GIB (0.596 vs 0.519; p=0.017) and for the composite of ICH-GIB (0.593 vs 0.527; p=0.030). NRI showed a significant negative reclassification for major bleeding and for the composite of ICH-GIB with the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED. Using DCAs, the use of HAS-BLED score gave an approximate net benefit of 4% over the ABC-Bleeding score. In conclusion, in the first “real-world” validation of the ABC-Bleeding score, HAS-BLED performed significantly better than the ABC-Bleeding score in predicting major bleeding, GIB and the composite of GIB and ICH.Note: The review process for this manuscript was fully handled by Christian Weber, Editor in Chief.Supplementary Material to this article is available online at www.thrombosis-online.com.

P4800Estimated effect of NOACs compared to Vitamin K Antagonists in real-world atrial fibrillation patients: Data from FANTASIA Registry

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M A Esteve Pastor ◽  
J M Rivera-Caravaca ◽  
V Roldan ◽  
I Roldan Rabadan ◽  
J Muniz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Adverse Events ◽  
Vitamin K ◽  
Major Bleeding ◽  
Real World ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Vitamin K Antagonists ◽  
Oral Anticoagulants ◽  
Stroke Rate ◽  
All Cause Mortality

Abstract Background Despite of the effectiveness and safety profile of Non-vitamin K Antagonists Oral Anticoagulants (NOACs) even in real-world (RW) Atrial Fibrillation (AF) patients, Vitamin K Antagonists (VKAs) have remained widely used in clinical practice worldwide but the comparison with acenocoumarol therapy in RW is unknown. Purpose To estimate the potential absolute benefit in clinical adverse events if the AF patients anticoagulated with VKA therapy had been treated with NOACs. Methods We analyzed anticoagulated AF patients who were prospectively recruited into the multicentre FANTASIIA registry. Patients were treated with VKAs for at least 6 months prior to inclusion. The estimation of clinical adverse events avoided was calculated applying absolute risk reductions, relative risk reductions and hazard ratios from the meta-analysis of RW use of NOACs relative to VKAs. Results We analyzed 1,470 patients under VKA therapy (mean age 74.1±9.5 years; 56.4% male). Stroke rate with acenocoumarol treatment was 0.88%/year. The estimated rates for stroke using NOACs would be 0.80%/year for Dabigatran 150 mg; 0.76%/year for Rivaroxaban and 0.74%/year for Apixaban instead of VKA. No significant differences were observed between the different NOACs and VKA in stroke rate. Major bleeding with acenocoumarol was 3.40%/year. The estimated rates for major bleeding using NOACs would be 2.75%/year for Dabigatran 150 mg; 3.37%/year for Rivaroxaban and 2.18%/year for Apixaban instead of VKA. Apixaban was the only NOAC that showed a significant estimated reduction rates (p=0.046). Finally, the all-cause mortality rate with acenocoumarol was 4.69%/year. The estimated rates of all-cause mortality using NOACs would be 3.28%/year for Dabigatran 150mg; 4.88%/year for Rivaroxaban and 2.67%/year for Apixaban. Dabigatran and Apixaban showed significant estimated reduction rates with the highest reduction with Apixaban (Table). Annual Rate reduction of adverse events Conclusion The absolute estimated effect of NOACs in the AF patients anticoagulated with VKA showed a significant reduction in adverse clinical events. Apixaban performed the highest estimated reduction in major bleeding and all-cause mortality in comparison with acenocoumarol.

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