Gentrification, mobility patterns and health in Lisbon: a time series’ analysis from 2008 to 2018

Background Mobility patterns have a great impact on health. The use of cars is known to be related with increasing air pollution, noise and accidents, and less active transportation, leading to cardiovascular, oncological or respiratory diseases, among others. Gentrification is a process through which the rising value of a geographical area displaces low-income inhabitants, mostly due to rising rents, mortgages and property taxes. This change has the potential for relocating long-time residents and businesses. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of gentrification in the car influx in the city of Lisbon. Methods A time series' analysis was performed using public ecological data, from 2008 to 2018, of habitation costs per square meter (as a proxy of gentrification) and the number of cars that entered Lisbon through accessing highways. The model was adjusted for confounding factors such as Lisbon's gross income and fuel prices. Results We verified the effect of seasonality in the car influx, with peaks before and after summer - july and october - and a downward trend until 2013 that then inflected and started an upward trend from 2014 to 2018. Habitation costs were positively correlated with car influx into the city (R2=0.773; p < 0.001). In the model, 1€/m2 of increment in housing prices corresponded to 200 more cars that entered the city. Conclusions In Lisbon, gentrification was associated with the increasing number of cars entering the city. These findings may have implications in future policies that regulate housing and mobility. Further research is needed to fully understand the causal pathways of this phenomenon. Key messages Mobility patterns have a great influence on health, and gentrification may influence them. The increase of 1€ per square meter in housing prices lead to an increase of the influx of cars of 200.