scholarly journals Evaluating risk, safety and efficacy of novel reproductive techniques and therapies through the EuroGTP II risk assessment tool

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 1821-1838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esteve Trias ◽  
Martine Nijs ◽  
Ioana Adina Rugescu ◽  
Francesco Lombardo ◽  
Gueorgui Nikolov ◽  
...  

Abstract STUDY QUESTION Can risks associated with novelties in assisted reproduction technologies (ARTs) be assessed in a systematic and structured way? SUMMARY ANSWER An ART-specific risk assessment tool has been developed to assess the risks associated with the development of novelties in ART (EuroGTP II-ART). WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY How to implement new technologies in ART is well-described in the literature. The successive steps should include testing in animal models, executing pre-clinical studies using supernumerary gametes or embryos, prospective clinical trials and finally, short- and long-term follow-up studies on the health of the offspring. A framework categorizing treatments from experimental through innovative to established according to the extent of the studies conducted has been devised. However, a systematic and standardized methodology to facilitate risk evaluation before innovations are performed in a clinical setting is lacking. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION The EuroGTP II-ART risk assessment tool was developed on the basis of a generic risk assessment algorithm developed for tissue and cell therapies and products (TCTPs) in the context of the project ‘Good Practices for demonstrating safety and quality through recipient follow-up European Good Tissue and cells Practices II (EuroGTP II)’. For this purpose, a series of four meetings was held in which eight ART experts participated. In addition, several tests and simulations were undertaken to fine-tune the final tool. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The three steps comprising the EuroGTP II methodology were evaluated against its usefulness and applicability in ART. Ways to improve and adapt the methodology into ART risk assessment were agreed and implemented. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Assessment of the novelty (Step 1), consisting of seven questions, is the same as for other TCTPs. Practical examples were included for better understanding. Identification of potential risks and consequences (Step 2), consisting of a series of risks and risk consequences to consider during risk assessment, was adapted from the generic methodology, adding more potential risks for processes involving gonadic tissues. The algorithm to score risks was also adapted, giving a specific range of highest possible risk scores. A list of strategies for risk reduction and definition of extended studies required to ensure effectiveness and safety (Step 3) was also produced by the ART experts, based on generic EuroGTP II methodology. Several explanations and examples were provided for each of the steps for better understanding within this field. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION A multidisciplinary team is needed to perform risk assessment, to interpret results and to determine risk mitigation strategies and/or next steps required to ensure the safety in the clinical use of novelties. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This is a dynamic tool whose value goes beyond assessment of risk before implementing a novel ART in clinical practice, to re-evaluate risks based on information collected during the process. STUDY FUNDING / COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study was called EUROGTP II and was funded by the European Commission (Grant agreement number 709567). The authors declare no competing interests concerning the results of this study.

Author(s):  
James B O'Keefe ◽  
Elizabeth J Tong ◽  
Thomas H Taylor ◽  
Ghazala D Datoo O'Keefe ◽  
David C Tong

Objective: To determine whether a risk prediction tool developed and implemented in March 2020 accurately predicts subsequent hospitalizations. Design: Retrospective cohort study, enrollment from March 24 to May 26, 2020 with follow-up calls until hospitalization or clinical improvement (final calls until June 19, 2020) Setting: Single center telemedicine program managing outpatients from a large medical system in Atlanta, Georgia Participants: 496 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in isolation at home. Exclusion criteria included: (1) hospitalization prior to telemedicine program enrollment, (2) immediate discharge with no follow-up calls due to resolution. Exposure: Acute COVID-19 illness Main Outcome and Measures: Hospitalization was the outcome. Days to hospitalization was the metric. Survival analysis using Cox regression was used to determine factors associated with hospitalization. Results: The risk-assessment rubric assigned 496 outpatients to risk tiers as follows: Tier 1, 237 (47.8%); Tier 2, 185 (37.3%); Tier 3, 74 (14.9%). Subsequent hospitalizations numbered 3 (1%), 15 (7%), and 17 (23%) and for Tiers 1-3, respectively. From a Cox regression model with age ≥ 60, gender, and self-reported obesity as covariates, the adjusted hazard ratios using Tier 1 as reference were: Tier 2 HR=3.74 (95% CI, 1.06-13.27; P=0.041); Tier 3 HR=10.87 (95% CI, 3.09-38.27; P<0.001). Tier was the strongest predictor of time to hospitalization. Conclusions and Relevance: A telemedicine risk assessment tool prospectively applied to an outpatient population with COVID-19 identified both low-risk and high-risk patients with better performance than individual risk factors alone. This approach may be appropriate for optimum allocation of resources.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samaneh Asgari ◽  
Fatemeh Moosaie ◽  
Davood Khalili ◽  
Fereidoun Azizi ◽  
Farzad Hadaegh

Abstract Background: High burden of chronic cardio-metabolic disease (CCD) including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been reported in the Middle East and North Africa region. We aimed to externally validate a Europoid risk assessment tool designed by Alssema et al, including non-laboratory measures, for the prediction of the CCD in the Iranian population. Methods: The predictors included age, body mass index, waist circumference, use of antihypertensive, current smoking, and family history of cardiovascular disease and or diabetes. For external validation of the model in the Tehran lipids and glucose study (TLGS), the Area under the curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness of fit test were performed for discrimination and calibration, respectively. Results: Among 1310 men and 1960 women aged 28-85 years, 29.5% and 47.4% experienced CCD during the 6 and 9-year follow-up, respectively. The model showed acceptable discrimination, with an AUC of 0.72(95% CI: 0.69-0.75) for men and 0.73(95% CI: 0.71-0.76) for women. The calibration of the model was good for both genders (min HL P=0.5). Considering separate outcomes, AUC was highest for CKD (0.76(95% CI: 0.72-0.79)) and lowest for T2DM (0.65(95% CI: 0.61-0.69)), in men. As for women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.82(95% CI: 0.78-0.86)) and lowest for T2DM (0.69(95% CI: 0.66-0.73)). The 9-year follow-up demonstrated almost similar performances compared to the 6-year follow-up. Conclusion: This model showed acceptable discrimination and good calibration for risk prediction of CCD in short and long-term follow-up in the Iranian population.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samaneh Asgari ◽  
Fatemeh Moosaie ◽  
Davood Khalili ◽  
Fereidoun Azizi ◽  
Farzad Hadaegh

Abstract Background: High burden of chronic cardio-metabolic disorders including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been reported in the Middle East and North Africa region. We aimed to externally validate a non-laboratory risk assessment tool for the prediction of the chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in the Iranian population. Methods: The predictors included age, body mass index, waist circumference, use of antihypertensive, current smoking, and family history of cardiovascular disease and/or diabetes. For external validation of the model in the Tehran lipids and glucose study (TLGS), the Area under the curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness of fit test were performed for discrimination and calibration, respectively. Results: Among 1310 men and 1960 women aged 28-85 years, 29.5% and 47.4% experienced chronic cardio-metabolic disorders during the 6 and 9-year follow-up, respectively. The model showed acceptable discrimination, with an AUC of 0.72(95% CI: 0.69-0.75) for men and 0.73(95% CI: 0.71-0.76) for women. The calibration of the model was good for both genders (min HL P=0.5). Considering separate outcomes, AUC was highest for CKD (0.76(95% CI: 0.72-0.79)) and lowest for T2DM (0.65(95% CI: 0.61-0.69)), in men. As for women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.82(95% CI: 0.78-0.86)) and lowest for T2DM (0.69(95% CI: 0.66-0.73)). The 9-year follow-up demonstrated almost similar performances compared to the 6-year follow-up. Using Cox regression in place of logistic multivariable analysis, model’s discrimination and calibration were reduced for prediction of chronic cardio-metabolic disorders; the issue which had more effect on the prediction of incident CKD among women. Moreover, adding data of educational levels and marital status did not improve, the discrimination and calibration in the enhanced model.Conclusion: This model showed acceptable discrimination and good calibration for risk prediction of chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in short and long-term follow-up in the Iranian population.


2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e15135-e15135
Author(s):  
Laura W. Musselwhite ◽  
Thomas S. Redding ◽  
Kellie J. Sims ◽  
Meghan O'Leary ◽  
Elizabeth R. Hauser ◽  
...  

e15135 Background: Refining screening to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk may promote screening effectiveness. We applied the National Cancer Institute (NCI) CRC Risk Assessment Tool to estimate 5- and 10-year CRC risk in an average-risk Veterans cohort undergoing screening colonoscopy with follow-up. Methods: This was a prospective evaluation of predicted to actual risk of CRC using the NCI CRC Risk Assessment Tool in male Veterans undergoing screening colonoscopy with a median follow-up of 10 years.Family, medical, dietary and physical activity histories were collected at enrollment and used to calculate absolute 5- and 10-year CRC risk, and to compare tertiles of expected to observed CRC risk. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: For 2,934 male Veterans with complete data (average age 62.4 years, 15% minorities), 1.3% (N=30) and 1.7% (N=50) were diagnosed with CRC within 5 and 10 years of survey completion. The area under the curve for predicting CRC was 0.69 (95% CI; 0.61-0.78) at 5 years and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.59-0.75) at 10 years. We calculated the sensitivity (0.60, 95% CI; 0.45-0.73), specificity (0.67, 95% CI; 0.65-0.69) positive predictive value (0.031, 95% CI; 0.02-0.04) and negative predictive value (0.99, 95% CI; 0.98-0.99). Conclusions: The NCI CRC Risk Assessment Tool was well-calibrated at 5 years and overestimated CRC risk at 10 years, had modest discriminatory function, and a high NPV in a cohort of ethnically diverse male Veterans. This tool reliably excludes 10-year CRC in low-scoring individuals and may inform patient-provider decision making when the benefit of screening is uncertain. [Table: see text]


2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caelin Rose ◽  
Wendy Wainwright ◽  
Michael Downing ◽  
Mary Lesperance

AbstractObjective:The Bereavement Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) was designed to consistently communicate information affecting bereavement outcomes; to predict the risk for difficult or complicated bereavement based on information obtained before the death; to consider resiliency as well as risk; and to assist in the efficacy and consistency of bereavement service allocation. Following initial development of the BRAT's 40 items and its clinical use, this study set out to test the BRAT for inter-rater reliability along with some basic validity measures.Method:Case studies were designed based on actual patients and families from a hospice palliative care program. Bereavement professionals were recruited via the internet. Thirty-six participants assessed BRAT items in 10 cases and then estimated one of 5 levels of risk for each case. These were compared with an expert group's assignment of risk.Results:Inter-rater reliability for the 5-level risk scores yielded a Fleiss’ kappa of 0.37 and an intra-class correlation (ICC) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.5-0.9). By collapsing scores into low and high risk groups, a kappa of 0.63 and an ICC of 0.66 (95% CI 0.5-0.9) was obtained. Participant-estimated risk scores yielded a kappa of 0.24. Although opinion varied on the tool's length, participants indicated it was well organized and easy to use with potential in assessment and allocation of bereavement services. Limitations of the study include a small sample size and the use of case studies. Limitations of the tool include the subjectivity of some items and ambiguousness of unchecked items.Significance of results:The collapsed BRAT risk levels show moderately good inter-rater reliability over clinical judgement alone. This study provides introductory evidence of a tool that can be used both prior to and following a death and, in conjunction with professional judgment, can assess the likelihood of bereavement complications.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Michalcova ◽  
Karel Vasut ◽  
Marja Airaksinen ◽  
Katarina Bielakova

Abstract Background Falls are common undesirable events for older adults in institutions. Even though the patient’s fall risk may be scored on admission, the medication-induced fall risk may be ignored. This study developed a preliminary categorization of fall-risk-increasing drugs (FRIDs) to be added as a risk factor to the existing fall risk assessment tool routinely used in geriatric care units. Methods Medication use data of older adults who had experienced at least one fall during a hospital ward or a nursing home stay within a 2-year study period were retrospectively collected from patient records. Medicines used were classified into three risk categories (high, moderate and none) according to the fall risk information in statutory summaries of product characteristics (SmPCs). The fall risk categorization incorporated the relative frequency of such adverse drug effects (ADEs) in SmPCs that were known to be connected to fall risk (sedation, orthostatic hypotension, syncope, dizziness, drowsiness, changes in blood pressure or impaired balance). Also, distribution of fall risk scores assessed on admission without considering medications was counted. Results The fall-experienced patients (n = 188, 128 from the hospital and 60 from nursing home records) used altogether 1748 medicaments, including 216 different active substances. Of the active substances, 102 (47%) were categorized as high risk (category A) for increasing fall risk. Fall-experienced patients (n = 188) received a mean of 3.8 category A medicines (n = 710), 53% (n = 375) of which affected the nervous and 40% (n = 281) the cardiovascular system. Without considering medication-related fall risk, 53% (n = 100) of the patients were scored having a high fall risk (3 or 4 risk scores). Conclusion It was possible to develop a preliminary categorization of FRIDs basing on their adverse drug effect profile in SmPCs and frequency of use in older patients who had experienced at least one documented fall in a geriatric care unit. Even though more than half of the fall-experienced study participants had high fall risk scores on admission, their fall risk might have been underestimated as use of high fall risk medicines was common, even concomitant use. Further studies are needed to develop the FRID categorization and assess its impact on fall risk.


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