scholarly journals Trends in Attempts to Quit Smoking in England Since 2007: A Time Series Analysis of a Range of Population-Level Influences

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 1476-1483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Beard ◽  
Sarah E Jackson ◽  
Robert West ◽  
Mirte A G Kuipers ◽  
Jamie Brown
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Point Of Sale ◽  
Quit Smoking ◽  
Quit Attempts ◽  
Motivation To Quit ◽  
High Motivation ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Aim To quantify population-level associations between quit attempts and factors that have varied across 2007–2017 in England. Methods Data from 51 867 past-year smokers participating in the Smoking Toolkit Study (a monthly cross-sectional survey of individuals aged 16+) were aggregated over an 11-year period. Time series analysis was undertaken using ARIMAX modeling. The input series were: (1) prevalence of smoking reduction using (a) e-cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy; (2) prevalence of roll-your-own tobacco use; (3) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non-daily smoking; (4) mass media expenditure; (5) average expenditure on smoking; (6) characteristics in the form of (a) prevalence of high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) proportion from lower social grades, and (d) average number of cigarettes smoked; and (7) implementation of tobacco control policies. Results There was a decline in the prevalence of quit attempts from 44.6% to 33.8% over the study period. The partial point-of-sale ban was associated with a temporary increase in quit attempt prevalence (Badjusted = 0.224%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.061 to 0.388). Quit attempts were positively associated with the prevalence of high motivation to quit (Badjusted = 0.165%;95% CI 0.048 to 0.282) and negatively associated with the mean age of smokers (Badjusted = −1.351%; 95% CI −2.168 to −0.534). All other associations were nonsignificant. Conclusion Increases in the prevalence of high motivation to quit was associated with higher prevalence of attempts to quit smoking, while an increase in the mean age of smokers was associated with lower prevalence. The introduction of the partial point-of-sale ban appeared to have a temporary positive impact. Implications This study provides insight into how monthly changes in a wide range of population-level factors are associated with changes in quit attempts over an extended time period in a country with a strong tobacco control climate. The findings suggest a need for intervention or policy to stimulate quit attempts in older smokers. Otherwise, increases in the mean age of a smokers appears likely to undermine wider efforts to promote quit attempts in a population.

scholarly journals Population‐level predictors of changes in success rates of smoking quit attempts in England: a time series analysis

Addiction ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 115 (2) ◽  
pp. 315-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Beard ◽  
Sarah E. Jackson ◽  
Robert West ◽  
Mirte A. G. Kuipers ◽  
Jamie Brown
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Success Rates ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Quit Attempts

scholarly journals Impact of Canadian tobacco packaging policy on use of a toll-free quit-smoking line: an interrupted time-series analysis

CMAJ Open ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. E59-E65 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. B. Baskerville ◽  
K. S. Brown ◽  
N. C. Nguyen ◽  
L. Hayward ◽  
R. D. Kennedy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Quit Smoking ◽  
Tobacco Packaging

The effect of season and the introduction of rams on oestrous activity in Somali, Nandi, Merino, Karakul and New Zealand Romney Marsh ewes in Kenya

1986 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. Carles ◽  
W. A. K. Kipngeno
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Oestrous Cycle ◽  
Significant Source ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Mean

ABSTRACTA study was made of the levels of oestrous activity of two indigenous breeds of sheep (Somali and Nandi) and three exotic breeds of sheep (Merino, Karakul and New Zealand Romney Marsh) over a period of 3 years, in an equatorial environment. Breed was the only significant source of variation for the length of the oestrous cycle (P < 0·01). The mean lengths of the oestrous cycle were 17·2 (s.d. 3·21), 17·5 (s.d. 2·24), 17·9 (s.d. 2·99), 17·5 (s.d. 2·57) and 16·5 (s.d. 3·41) days for the Somali, Nandi, Merino, Karakul and Romney Marsh breeds, respectively.The mean percentage of ewes of the different breeds showing oestrus in 20-day periods were 69·8 (s.d. 22·57), 49·9 (s.d. 18·67), 63·4 (s.d. 25·70), 79·2 (s.d. 20·30) and 33·2 (s.d. 23·50) % for the Somali, Nandi, Merino, Karakul and Romney Marsh breeds, respectively. Time-series analysis did not detect any evidence of seasonal variation in oestrous activity, although there was an indication that the Merino and Romney Marsh breeds showed a marked increase in oestrous activity following, the introduction of rams. It was concluded that the variation in level of oestrous activity was short term and random.

scholarly journals Do New Zealand Māori and Pacific ‘walk the talk’ when it comes to stopping smoking? A qualitative study of motivation to quit

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marewa Glover ◽  
Vili Nosa ◽  
Dudley Gentles ◽  
Donna Watson ◽  
Janine Paynter
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Pacific People ◽  
Effective Strategies ◽  
Quit Smoking ◽  
Stop Smoking ◽  
Quit Attempts ◽  
Motivation To Quit ◽  
Motivating Reasons

Introduction: In March 2011, the New Zealand government committed to the goal of reducing the prevalence of current smokers to less than 5% by 2025. Smoking prevalence is significantly higher for Māori and Pacific peoples. To ensure a proportionately larger decrease in smoking prevalence for Māori and Pacific peoples by 2025, more effective strategies for prompting cessation among these groups are needed. Aim: This study aimed to identify what motivates Māori and Pacific people to quit smoking so that communications and mass media quit campaigns can be more effective at triggering quitting among them. Method: A qualitative approach utilising focus groups (N = 168) was used to ask participants to rank reasons why people say they should quit smoking (the ‘talk’) which we compared with participants’ reasons for actually quitting (the ‘walk’). The results were plotted on a scatter graph using a method devised by the authors. Results: Health, children and pregnancy were perceived to be strong motivating reasons to quit and they were frequently cited as triggering past quit attempts. Cost was plotted high for Pacific but low for Māori especially for talk. ‘It stinks’ was cited as triggering past quit attempts, but was not perceived as a reason to quit. Conclusion: Emotionally important reasons and more immediate reasons for quitting are likely to be more effective at prompting Māori and Pacific peoples to stop smoking.

scholarly journals Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001–2011

2014 ◽  
Vol 92 (6) ◽  
pp. 413-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie A Wakefield ◽  
Kerri Coomber ◽  
Sarah J Durkin ◽  
Michelle Scollo ◽  
Megan Bayly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Control Policies ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Forecasting Modelling of Cockles in Malaysia by Using Time Series Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.30) ◽  
pp. 488
Author(s):  
Hani Nabihah Aziz ◽  
Mohd Saifullah Rusiman ◽  
Siti Noor Asyikin Mohd Razali ◽  
Abdul Wahab Abdulla ◽  
Nur Amira Azmi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Linear Method ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Cyclic Pattern ◽  
Mangrove Estuary ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Blood Cockle

Cockle farmed in Malaysia are from Anadara genes and Arcidae family which known as blood cockle. Normally, it was found in the farmed around mangrove estuary areas in the muddy and sandy shores. This study aims to predict the production of cockle to ensure sure the cockle supplies are synchronised with the demand. Then, based on the demand, the prediction result could be used to make decision either to import or export the cockle. The data were taken from the Department of Fisheries Malaysia (DFM) and it has cyclic pattern data. There are two methods used in this study which are Holt-Linear method and Auto regressive moving average (ARMA). In determining the best fitted model between the two methods, the mean square error (MSE) values will be compared and the lowest value of MSE will assign as the best model. Result shows that ARMA(1,1) is the best model compared to Holt-Linear. Therefore, ARMA(1,1) model will be used to forecast the production of cockle in Malaysia.

scholarly journals Impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control on global cigarette consumption: quasi-experimental evaluations using interrupted time series analysis and in-sample forecast event modelling

BMJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. l2287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J Hoffman ◽  
Mathieu J P Poirier ◽  
Susan Rogers Van Katwyk ◽  
Prativa Baral ◽  
Lathika Sritharan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Cigarette Consumption ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Annual Consumption ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
National Estimates

Abstract Objective To evaluate the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) on global cigarette consumption. Design Two quasi-experimental impact evaluations, using interrupted time series analysis (ITS) and in-sample forecast event modelling. Setting and population 71 countries for which verified national estimates of cigarette consumption from 1970 to 2015 were available, representing over 95% of the world’s cigarette consumption and 85% of the world’s population. Main outcome measures The FCTC is an international treaty adopted in 2003 that aims to reduce harmful tobacco consumption and is legally binding on the 181 countries that have ratified it. Main outcomes were annual national estimates of cigarette consumption per adult from 71 countries since 1970, allowing global, regional, and country comparisons of consumption levels and trends before and after 2003, with counterfactual control groups modelled using pre-intervention linear time trends (for ITS) and in-sample forecasts (for event modelling). Results No significant change was found in the rate at which global cigarette consumption had been decreasing after the FCTC’s adoption in 2003, using either ITS or event modelling. Results were robust after realigning data to the year FCTC negotiations commenced (1999), or to the year when the FCTC first became legally binding in each country. By contrast to global consumption, high income and European countries showed a decrease in annual consumption by over 1000 cigarettes per adult after 2003, whereas low and middle income and Asian countries showed an increased annual consumption by over 500 cigarettes per adult when compared with a counterfactual event model. Conclusions This study finds no evidence to indicate that global progress in reducing cigarette consumption has been accelerated by the FCTC treaty mechanism. This null finding, combined with regional differences, should caution against complacency in the global tobacco control community, motivate greater implementation of proven tobacco control policies, encourage assertive responses to tobacco industry activities, and inform the design of more effective health treaties.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document