scholarly journals Delay in the Effect of Restricting Community Mobility on the Spread of COVID-19 During the First Wave in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shan He ◽  
Jooyoung Lee ◽  
Benjamin Langworthy ◽  
Junyi Xin ◽  
Peter James ◽  
...  

Abstract Background It remains unclear how changes in human mobility shaped the transmission dynamic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during its first wave in the United States. Methods By coupling a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model with reported case data and Google mobility data at the county level, we found that changes in movement were associated with notable changes in reported COVID-19 incidence rates about 5 to 7 weeks later. Results Among all movement types, residential stay was the most influential driver of COVID-19 incidence rate, with a 10% increase 7 weeks ago reducing the disease incidence rate by 13% (95% credible interval, 6%–20%). A 10% increase in movement from home to workplaces, retail and recreation stores, public transit, grocery stores, and pharmacies 7 weeks ago was associated with an increase of 5%–8% in the COVID-10 incidence rate. In contrast, parks-related movement showed minimal impact. Conclusions Policy-makers should anticipate such a delay when planning intervention strategies restricting human movement.

Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (25) ◽  
pp. 5600-5604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mercy Guech-Ongey ◽  
Edgar P. Simard ◽  
William F. Anderson ◽  
Eric A. Engels ◽  
Kishor Bhatia ◽  
...  

Abstract Trimodal or bimodal age-specific incidence rates for Burkitt lymphoma (BL) were observed in the United States general population, but the role of immunosuppression could not be excluded. Incidence rates, rate ratios, and 95% confidence intervals for BL and other non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), by age and CD4 lymphocyte count categories, were estimated using Poisson regression models using data from the United States HIV/AIDS Cancer Match study (1980-2005). BL incidence was 22 cases per 100 000 person-years and 586 for non-BL NHL. Adjusted BL incidence rate ratio among males was 1.6× that among females and among non-Hispanic blacks, 0.4× that among non-Hispanic whites, but unrelated to HIV-transmission category. Non-BL NHL incidence increased from childhood to adulthood; in contrast, 2 age-specific incidence peaks during the pediatric and adult/geriatric years were observed for BL. Non-BL NHL incidence rose steadily with decreasing CD4 lymphocyte counts; in contrast, BL incidence was lowest among people with ≤ 50 CD4 lymphocytes/μL versus those with ≥ 250 CD4 lymphocytes/μL (incidence rate ratio 0.3 [95% confidence interval = 0.2-0.6]). The bimodal peaks for BL, in contrast to non-BL NHL, suggest effects of noncumulative risk factors at different ages. Underascertainment or biological reasons may account for BL deficit at low CD4 lymphocyte counts.


PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e3616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob P. Leinweber ◽  
Hui G. Cheng ◽  
Catalina Lopez-Quintero ◽  
James C. Anthony

BackgroundCannabis use and cannabis regulatory policies recently re-surfaced as noteworthy global research and social media topics, including claims that Mexicans have been sending cannabis and other drug supplies through a porous border into the United States. These circumstances prompted us to conduct an epidemiological test of whether the states bordering Mexico had exceptionally large cannabis incidence rates for 2002–2011. The resulting range of cannabis incidence rates disclosed here can serve as 2002–2011 benchmark values against which estimates from later years can be compared.MethodsThe population under study is 12-to-24-year-old non-institutionalized civilian community residents of the US, sampled and assessed with confidential audio computer-assisted self-interviews (ACASI) during National Surveys on Drug Use and Health, 2002–2011 (aggregaten ∼ 420,000) for which public use datasets were available. We estimated state-specific cannabis incidence rates based on independent replication sample surveys across these years, and derived meta-analysis estimates for 10 pre-specified regions, including the Mexico border region.ResultsFrom meta-analysis, the estimated annual incidence rate for cannabis use in the Mexico Border Region is 5% (95% CI [4%–7%]), which is not an exceptional value relative to the overall US estimate of 6% (95% CI [5%–6%]). Geographically quite distant from Mexico and from states of the western US with liberalized cannabis policies, the North Atlantic Region population has the numerically largest incidence estimate at 7% (95% CI [6%–8%]), while the Gulf of Mexico Border Region population has the lowest incidence rate at 5% (95% CI [4%–6%]). Within the set of state-specific estimates, Vermont’s and Utah’s populations have the largest and smallest incidence rates, respectively (VT: 9%; 95% CI [8%–10%]; UT: 3%; 95% CI [3%–4%]).DiscussionBased on this study’s estimates, among 12-to-24-year-old US community residents, an estimated 6% start to use cannabis each year (roughly one in 16). Relatively minor variation in region-wise and state-level estimates is seen, although Vermont and Utah might be exceptional. As of 2011, proximity to Mexico, to Canada, and to the western states with liberalized policies apparently has induced little variation in cannabis incidence rates. Our primary intent was to create a set of benchmark estimates for state-specific and region-specific population incidence rates for cannabis use, using meta-analysis based on independent US survey replications. Public health officials and policy analysts now can use these benchmark estimates from 2002–2011 for planning, and in comparisons with newer estimates.


Author(s):  
Abolfazl Mollalo ◽  
Kiara M. Rivera ◽  
Behzad Vahedi

Prediction of the COVID-19 incidence rate is a matter of global importance, particularly in the United States. As of 4 June 2020, more than 1.8 million confirmed cases and over 108 thousand deaths have been reported in this country. Few studies have examined nationwide modeling of COVID-19 incidence in the United States particularly using machine-learning algorithms. Thus, we collected and prepared a database of 57 candidate explanatory variables to examine the performance of multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network in predicting the cumulative COVID-19 incidence rates across the continental United States. Our results indicated that a single-hidden-layer MLP could explain almost 65% of the correlation with ground truth for the holdout samples. Sensitivity analysis conducted on this model showed that the age-adjusted mortality rates of ischemic heart disease, pancreatic cancer, and leukemia, together with two socioeconomic and environmental factors (median household income and total precipitation), are among the most substantial factors for predicting COVID-19 incidence rates. Moreover, results of the logistic regression model indicated that these variables could explain the presence/absence of the hotspots of disease incidence that were identified by Getis-Ord Gi* (p < 0.05) in a geographic information system environment. The findings may provide useful insights for public health decision makers regarding the influence of potential risk factors associated with the COVID-19 incidence at the county level.


2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 661-666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahed Tish ◽  
Ghaith Habboub ◽  
Min Lang ◽  
Quinn T. Ostrom ◽  
Carol Kruchko ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVESpinal schwannoma remains the third most common intradural spinal tumor following spinal meningioma and ependymoma. The available literature is generally limited to single-institution reports rather than epidemiological investigations. As of 1/1/2004, registration of all benign central nervous system tumors in the United States became mandatory after the Benign Brain Tumor Cancer Registries Amendment Act took action, which provided massive resources for United States population-based epidemiological studies. This article describes the epidemiology of spinal schwannoma in the United States from January 1, 2006, through December 31, 2014.METHODSIn this study, the authors utilized the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States, which corresponds to 100% of the American population. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Program of Cancer Registries and the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program provide the resource for this data registry. The authors included diagnosis years 2006 to 2014. They used the codes per the International Coding of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd Edition: histology code 9560/0 and site codes C72.0 (spinal cord), C70.1 (spinal meninges), and C72.1 (cauda equina). Rates are per 100,000 persons and are age-adjusted to the 2000 United States standard population. The age-adjusted incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals are calculated by age, sex, race, and ethnicity.RESULTSThere were 6989 spinal schwannoma cases between the years 2006 and 2014. The yearly incidence eminently increased between 2010 and 2014. Total incidence rate was 0.24 (95% CI 0.23–0.24) per 100,000 persons. The peak adjusted incidence rate was seen in patients who ranged in age from 65 to 74 years. Spinal schwannomas were less common in females than they were in males (incidence rate ratio = 0.85; p < 0.001), and they were less common in blacks than they were in whites (IRR = 0.52; p < 0.001) and American Indians/Alaska Natives (IRR = 0.50; p < 0.001) compared to whites. There was no statistically significant difference in incidence rate between whites and Asian or Pacific Islanders (IRR = 0.92; p = 0.16).CONCLUSIONSThe authors’ study results demonstrated a steady increase in the incidence of spinal schwannomas between 2010 and 2014. Male sex and the age range 65–74 years were associated with higher incidence rates of spinal schwannomas, whereas black and American Indian/Alaska Native races were associated with lower incidence rates. The present study represents the most thorough assessment of spinal schwannoma epidemiology in the American population.


2020 ◽  
pp. 204748731989962 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Goodall ◽  
Justin D Salciccioli ◽  
Alun Huw Davies ◽  
Dominic Marshall ◽  
Joseph Shalhoub

Aims The aim was to assess trends in peripheral arterial disease (PAD) incidence and mortality rates in European Union(15+) countries between 1990 and 2017. Methods and Results This observational study used data obtained from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. Age-standardised mortality and incidence rates from PAD were extracted from the Global Health Data Exchange for EU15+ countries for the years 1990–2017. Trends were analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis. Between 1990 and 2017, the incidence of PAD decreased in all 19 EU15+ countries for females, and in 18 of 19 countries for males. Increasing PAD incidence was observed only for males in the United States (+1.4%). In 2017, the highest incidence rates were observed in Denmark and the United States for males (213.6 and 202.3 per 100,000, respectively) and in the United States and Canada for females (194.8 and 171.1 per 100,000, respectively). There was a concomitant overall trend for increasing age-standardised mortality rates in all EU15+ countries for females, and in 16 of 19 EU15+ countries for males between 1990 and 2017. Italy (–25.1%), Portugal (–1.9%) and Sweden (–0.6%) were the only countries with reducing PAD mortality rates in males. The largest increases in mortality rates were observed in the United Kingdom (males +140.4%, females +158.0%) and the United States (males +125.7%, females +131.2%). Conclusions We identify shifting burden of PAD in EU15+ countries, with increasing mortality rates despite reducing incidence. Strong evidence supports goal-directed medical therapy in reducing PAD mortality – population-wide strategies to improve compliance to optimal goal-directed medical therapy are warranted.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yana Puckett ◽  
Alejandra Mallorga-Hernández ◽  
Adriana M. Montaño

Abstract Background Mucopolysaccharidoses (MPS) are rare, inherited lysosomal storage disorders characterized by progressive multiorgan involvement. Previous studies on incidence and prevalence of MPS mainly focused on countries other than the United States (US), showing considerable variation by country. This study aimed to identify MPS incidence and prevalence in the US at a national and state level to guide clinicians and policy makers. Methods This retrospective study examined all diagnosed cases of MPS from 1995 to 2015 in the US using the National MPS Society database records. Data included year of birth, patient geographic location, and MPS variant type. US population information was obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics. The incidence and prevalence rates were calculated for each disease. Incidence rates were calculated for each state. Results We obtained information from 789 MPS patients during a 20-year period. Incidence of MPS in the US was found to be 0.98 per 100,000 live births. Prevalence was found to be 2.67 per 1 million. MPS I, II, and III had the highest incidence rate at birth (0.26/100,000) and prevalence rates of 0.70–0.71 per million. Birth incidences of MPS IV, VI, and VII were 0.14, 0.04 and 0.027 per 100,000 live births. Conclusions This is the most comprehensive review of MPS incidence and prevalence rates in the US. Due to the large US population and state fragmentation, US incidence and prevalence were found to be lower than other countries. Nonetheless, state-level studies in the US supported these figures. Efforts should be focused in the establishment of a national rare disease registry with mandated reporting from every state as well as newborn screening of MPS.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanya Libby ◽  
Paula Clogher ◽  
Elisha Wilson ◽  
Nadine Oosmanally ◽  
Michelle Boyle ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Shigella causes an estimated 500 000 enteric illnesses in the United States annually, but the association with socioeconomic factors is unclear. Methods We examined possible epidemiologic associations between shigellosis and poverty using 2004–2014 Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) data. Shigella cases (n = 21 246) were geocoded, linked to Census tract data from the American Community Survey, and categorized into 4 poverty and 4 crowding strata. For each stratum, we calculated incidence by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and FoodNet site. Using negative binomial regression, we estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing the highest to lowest stratum. Results Annual FoodNet Shigella incidence per 100 000 population was higher among children &lt;5 years old (19.0), blacks (7.2), and Hispanics (5.6) and was associated with Census tract poverty (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 3.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.5–3.8) and household crowding (IRR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.7–1.9). The association with poverty was strongest among children and persisted regardless of sex, race/ethnicity, or geographic location. After controlling for demographic variables, the association between shigellosis and poverty remained significant (IRR, 2.3; 95% CI, 2.0–2.6). Conclusions In the United States, Shigella infections are epidemiologically associated with poverty, and increased incidence rates are observed among young children, blacks, and Hispanics.


Neurology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 95 (5) ◽  
pp. e519-e531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank J. Wolters ◽  
Lori B. Chibnik ◽  
Reem Waziry ◽  
Roy Anderson ◽  
Claudine Berr ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo determine changes in the incidence of dementia between 1988 and 2015.MethodsThis analysis was performed in aggregated data from individuals >65 years of age in 7 population-based cohort studies in the United States and Europe from the Alzheimer Cohort Consortium. First, we calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates for all-cause dementia, and then defined nonoverlapping 5-year epochs within each study to determine trends in incidence. Estimates of change per 10-year interval were pooled and results are presented combined and stratified by sex.ResultsOf 49,202 individuals, 4,253 (8.6%) developed dementia. The incidence rate of dementia increased with age, similarly for women and men, ranging from about 4 per 1,000 person-years in individuals aged 65–69 years to 65 per 1,000 person-years for those aged 85–89 years. The incidence rate of dementia declined by 13% per calendar decade (95% confidence interval [CI], 7%–19%), consistently across studies, and somewhat more pronouncedly in men than in women (24% [95% CI 14%–32%] vs 8% [0%–15%]).ConclusionThe incidence rate of dementia in Europe and North America has declined by 13% per decade over the past 25 years, consistently across studies. Incidence is similar for men and women, although declines were somewhat more profound in men. These observations call for sustained efforts to finding the causes for this decline, as well as determining their validity in geographically and ethnically diverse populations.


2014 ◽  
Vol 121 (3) ◽  
pp. 527-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haley Gittleman ◽  
Quinn T. Ostrom ◽  
Paul D. Farah ◽  
Annie Ondracek ◽  
Yanwen Chen ◽  
...  

Object Pituitary tumors are abnormal growths that develop in the pituitary gland. The Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS) contains the largest aggregation of population-based data on the incidence of primary CNS tumors in the US. These data were used to determine the incidence of tumors of the pituitary and associated trends between 2004 and 2009. Methods Using incidence data from 49 population-based state cancer registries, 2004–2009, age-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 population for pituitary tumors with ICD-O-3 (International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, Third Edition) histology codes 8040, 8140, 8146, 8246, 8260, 8270, 8271, 8272, 8280, 8281, 8290, 8300, 8310, 8323, 9492 (site C75.1 only), and 9582 were calculated overall and by patient sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, and age at diagnosis. Corresponding annual percent change (APC) scores and 95% confidence intervals were also calculated using Joinpoint to characterize trends in incidence rates over time. Diagnostic confirmation by subregion of the US was also examined. Results The overall annual incidence rate increased from 2.52 (95% CI 2.46–2.58) in 2004 to 3.13 (95% CI 3.07–3.20) in 2009. Associated time trend yielded an APC of 4.25% (95% CI 2.91%–5.61%). When stratifying by patient sex, the annual incidence rate increased from 2.42 (95% CI 2.33–2.50) to 2.94 (95% CI 2.85–3.03) in men and 2.70 (95% CI 2.62–2.79) to 3.40 (95% CI 3.31–3.49) in women, with APCs of 4.35% (95% CI 3.21%–5.51%) and 4.34% (95% CI 2.23%–6.49%), respectively. When stratifying by race, the annual incidence rate increased from 2.31 (95% CI 2.25–2.37) to 2.81 (95% CI 2.74–2.88) in whites, 3.99 (95% CI 3.77–4.23) to 5.31 (95% CI 5.06–5.56) in blacks, 1.77 (95% CI 1.26–2.42) to 2.52 (95% CI 1.96–3.19) in American Indians or Alaska Natives, and 1.86 (95% CI 1.62–2.13) to 2.03 (95% CI 1.80–2.28) in Asians or Pacific Islanders, with APCs of 3.91% (95% CI 2.88%–4.95%), 5.25% (95% CI 3.19%–7.36%), 5.31% (95% CI –0.11% to 11.03%), and 2.40% (95% CI –3.20% to 8.31%), respectively. When stratifying by Hispanic ethnicity, the annual incidence rate increased from 2.46 (95% CI 2.40–2.52) to 3.03 (95% CI 2.97–3.10) in non-Hispanics and 3.12 (95% CI 2.91–3.34) to 4.01 (95% CI 3.80–4.24) in Hispanics, with APCs of 4.15% (95% CI 2.67%–5.65%) and 5.01% (95% CI 4.42%–5.60%), respectively. When stratifying by age at diagnosis, the incidence of pituitary tumor was highest for those 65–74 years old and lowest for those 15–24 years old, with corresponding overall age-adjusted incidence rates of 6.39 (95% CI 6.24–6.54) and 1.56 (95% CI 1.51–1.61), respectively. Conclusions In this large patient cohort, the incidence of pituitary tumors reported between 2004 and 2009 was found to increase. Possible explanations for this increase include changes in documentation, changes in the diagnosis and registration of these tumors, improved diagnostics, improved data collection, increased awareness of pituitary diseases among physicians and the public, longer life expectancies, and/or an actual increase in the incidence of these tumors in the US population.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew M. Watson ◽  
Kristin Haraldsdottir ◽  
Kevin Biese ◽  
Leslie Goodavish ◽  
Bethany Stevens ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Context: As sports reinitiate around the country, the incidence of COVID-19 among youth soccer athletes remains unknown. Objective: To determine the incidence of COVID-19 among youth soccer athletes and the risk mitigation practices utilized by youth soccer organizations. Design: Retrospective cohort. Participants: Youth soccer club directors throughout the United States. Main Outcome Measures: Surveys were completed in late August 2020 regarding phase of return to soccer (individual only, group non-contact, group contact), date of reinitiation, number of players, cases of COVID-19, and risk reduction procedures being implemented. Case and incidence rates were compared to national pediatric data and county data from the prior 10 weeks. A negative binomial regression model was developed to predict club COVID-19 cases with local incidence rate and phase of return as covariates and the log of club player-days as an offset. Results: 124 respondents had reinitiated soccer, representing 91,007 players with a median duration of 73 days (IQR: 53-83 days) since restarting. Of the 119 that had progressed to group activities, 218 cases of COVID-19 were reported among 85,861 players. Youth soccer players had a lower case rate and incidence rate than children in the US (254 v. 477 cases per 100,000; incidence rate ratio [IRR]=0.511, 95% CI = [0.40-0.57], p&lt;0.001) and the general population from the counties where data was available (268 v. 864 cases per 100,000; IRR=0.202 [0.19–0.21], p&lt;0.001). After adjusting for local COVID-19 incidence, there was no relationship between club COVID-19 incidence and phase of return (non-contact: b=0.35±0.67, p=0.61; contact: b=0.18±0.67, p=0.79). Soccer clubs reported utilizing a median of 8 (IQR: 6-10) risk reduction procedures. Conclusions: The incidence of COVID-19 among youth soccer athletes is relatively low when compared to the background incidence among children in the United States in summer of 2020. No relationship was identified between club COVID-19 incidence and phase of return to soccer.


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