Why Fit Models to Data?

2021 ◽  
pp. 105-108
Author(s):  
Timothy E. Essington
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Mathematical Form ◽  
Mathematical Ecology ◽  
Statistical Tools ◽  
Ecological Understanding ◽  
Null Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Aid Decision

“Why Fit Models to Data?” is a brief introductory chapter that sets the stage for the forthcoming chapters and serves as a link between Part 1, which contains the introductory chapters on mathematical ecology, and Part 2, which contains the statistical analyses of the models presented in Part 1: Part 1 illustrated how models can be used to make inferences about the real world, to help clarify ecological understanding, aid decision-making, and evaluate risk. However, if models are presented as hypotheses written in mathematical form, then it becomes possible to use statistical methods to determine which hypotheses have the greatest support. Part 2 will focus on developing statistical tools so that the reader will be able to express hypotheses as mathematical models, fit the models to data, and assess the degree of support for each. The chapter also illustrates the limitations of null-hypothesis testing in decision-making in high-dimensional, multicausal systems.

Awareness and Decision Making in Professional Ethics

2000 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronny Swain
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Professional Ethics ◽  
Ethical Decision Making ◽  
Code Of Ethics ◽  
Professional Autonomy ◽  
Ethical Awareness ◽  
Ethical Decisions ◽  
The Right ◽  
Aid Decision

The paper describes the development of the 1998 revision of the Psychological Society of Ireland's Code of Professional Ethics. The Code incorporates the European Meta-Code of Ethics and an ethical decision-making procedure borrowed from the Canadian Psychological Association. An example using the procedure is presented. To aid decision making, a classification of different kinds of stakeholder (i.e., interested party) affected by ethical decisions is offered. The author contends (1) that psychologists should assert the right, which is an important aspect of professional autonomy, to make discretionary judgments, (2) that to be justified in doing so they need to educate themselves in sound and deliberative judgment, and (3) that the process is facilitated by a code such as the Irish one, which emphasizes ethical awareness and decision making. The need for awareness and judgment is underlined by the variability in the ethical codes of different organizations and different European states: in such a context, codes should be used as broad yardsticks, rather than precise templates.

Visualizations to Aid Decision-Making in the ACCP Value Framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Jones ◽  
Marie Ivanco ◽  
Shaun Deacon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Aid Decision

Perioperative mortality after pancreatectomy: A risk score to aid decision-making

Surgery ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 152 (3) ◽  
pp. S120-S127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizaveta Ragulin-Coyne ◽  
James E. Carroll ◽  
Jillian K. Smith ◽  
Elan R. Witkowski ◽  
Sing Chau Ng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Perioperative Mortality ◽  
Aid Decision

New Method of Knowledge Acquisition of Aid Decision-Making for Missile-Launching

2014 ◽  
Vol 1006-1007 ◽  
pp. 685-688
Author(s):  
Guo Bao Ding ◽  
Hao Xing ◽  
Lian Bing Wang ◽  
Dan Li
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Knowledge Acquisition ◽  
Power Supply System ◽  
Supply System ◽  
Pulse Power Supply ◽  
Causal Knowledge ◽  
Diagram Method ◽  
New Knowledge ◽  
Knowledge Acquisition Methods ◽  
Aid Decision

Acquiring causal knowledge of abnormity is essential to Missile-Launching reliably. There are lots of Knowledge Acquisition methods. But it is absence for usage and maintenance support process. So it is necessary to start the research on new knowledge acquisition technology of aid Decision-Making for Missile-Launching. Based on the Usage and Maintenance-Support Process, this thesis acquires knowledge with the ESD and CESD (Converse Event Sequence Diagram) method. First, this thesis gives the concept of CESD. Then, in order to adapt the CESD model of the complex systems more effectively, this paper expands the CESD framework and provides a software frame of computer aided ESD study. Finally, the operation of pulse power supply system is analyzed on the basis of the improved ESD and CESD. This sample shows the applicability of ESD and CESD methodology in knowledge acquisition technology of aid Decision-Making for Missile-Launching.

The Demand for, and Avoidance of, Information

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Golman ◽  
George Loewenstein ◽  
Andras Molnar ◽  
Silvia Saccardo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Behavioral Theory ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
New Information ◽  
Attention Demand ◽  
Aid Decision

Management scientists recognize that decision making depends on the information people have but lack a unified behavioral theory of the demand for (and avoidance of) information. Drawing on an existing theoretical framework in which utility depends on beliefs and the attention paid to them, we develop and test a theory of the demand for information encompassing instrumental considerations, curiosity, and desire to direct attention to beliefs one feels good about. We decompose an individual’s demand for information into the desire to refine beliefs, holding attention constant, and the desire to focus attention on anticipated beliefs, holding these beliefs constant. Because the utility of resolving uncertainty (i.e., refining beliefs) depends on the attention paid to it and more important or salient questions capture more attention, demand for information depends on the importance and salience of the question(s) it addresses. In addition, because getting new information focuses attention on one’s beliefs and people want to savor good news and ignore bad news, the desire to obtain or avoid information depends on the valence (i.e., goodness or badness) of anticipated beliefs. Five experiments (n = 2,361) test and find support for these hypotheses, looking at neutrally valenced as well as ego-relevant information. People are indeed more inclined to acquire information (a) when it feels more important, even if it cannot aid decision making (Experiments 1A and 2A); (b) when a question is more salient, manipulated through time lag (Experiments 1B and 2B); and (c) when anticipated beliefs have higher valence (Experiment 2C). This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis.

INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS COURSE TERTIARY STUDENTS’ UNDERSTANDING OF P-VALUES

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
ROBYN REABURN
Keyword(s):  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Statistics Education ◽  
Introductory Statistics ◽  
P Values ◽  
Testing Procedures ◽  
Research Journal ◽  
Null Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Statistics Course ◽  
Teaching Programs

This study aimed to gain knowledge of students’ beliefs and difficulties in understanding p-values, and to use this knowledge to develop improved teaching programs. This study took place over four consecutive teaching semesters of a one-semester tertiary statistics unit. The study was cyclical, in that the results of each semester were used to inform the instructional design for the following semester. Over the semesters, the following instructional techniques were introduced: computer simulation, the introduction of hypothetical probabilistic reasoning using a familiar context, and the use of alternative representations. The students were also encouraged to write about their work. As the interventions progressed, a higher proportion of students successfully defined and used p-values in Null Hypothesis Testing procedures. First published May 2014 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

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