The Demand for, and Avoidance of, Information

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Golman ◽  
George Loewenstein ◽  
Andras Molnar ◽  
Silvia Saccardo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Behavioral Theory ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
New Information ◽  
Attention Demand ◽  
Aid Decision

Management scientists recognize that decision making depends on the information people have but lack a unified behavioral theory of the demand for (and avoidance of) information. Drawing on an existing theoretical framework in which utility depends on beliefs and the attention paid to them, we develop and test a theory of the demand for information encompassing instrumental considerations, curiosity, and desire to direct attention to beliefs one feels good about. We decompose an individual’s demand for information into the desire to refine beliefs, holding attention constant, and the desire to focus attention on anticipated beliefs, holding these beliefs constant. Because the utility of resolving uncertainty (i.e., refining beliefs) depends on the attention paid to it and more important or salient questions capture more attention, demand for information depends on the importance and salience of the question(s) it addresses. In addition, because getting new information focuses attention on one’s beliefs and people want to savor good news and ignore bad news, the desire to obtain or avoid information depends on the valence (i.e., goodness or badness) of anticipated beliefs. Five experiments (n = 2,361) test and find support for these hypotheses, looking at neutrally valenced as well as ego-relevant information. People are indeed more inclined to acquire information (a) when it feels more important, even if it cannot aid decision making (Experiments 1A and 2A); (b) when a question is more salient, manipulated through time lag (Experiments 1B and 2B); and (c) when anticipated beliefs have higher valence (Experiment 2C). This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis.

scholarly journals Cognitive Control of Working Memory: A Model-Based Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 721
Author(s):  
Russell J. Boag ◽  
Niek Stevenson ◽  
Roel van Dooren ◽  
Anne C. Trutti ◽  
Zsuzsika Sjoerds ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Working Memory ◽  
Cognitive Control ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Decision Time ◽  
Control Processes ◽  
Prepotent Response ◽  
New Information ◽  
Empirical Performance ◽  
Flow Of Information

Working memory (WM)-based decision making depends on a number of cognitive control processes that control the flow of information into and out of WM and ensure that only relevant information is held active in WM’s limited-capacity store. Although necessary for successful decision making, recent work has shown that these control processes impose performance costs on both the speed and accuracy of WM-based decisions. Using the reference-back task as a benchmark measure of WM control, we conducted evidence accumulation modeling to test several competing explanations for six benchmark empirical performance costs. Costs were driven by a combination of processes, running outside of the decision stage (longer non-decision time) and showing the inhibition of the prepotent response (lower drift rates) in trials requiring WM control. Individuals also set more cautious response thresholds when expecting to update WM with new information versus maintain existing information. We discuss the promise of this approach for understanding cognitive control in WM-based decision making.

Is an Emoji Worth a Thousand Words? The Effect of Emoji Usage on Nonprofessional Investors’ Perceptions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilda E. Carrillo ◽  
Robin Pennington ◽  
Yibo (James) Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Positive Emotions ◽  
Research Community ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Verbal Cues ◽  
Nonprofessional Investors

Emojis act as non-verbal cues to disambiguate and communicate affect and are increasingly used in online corporate disclosures. Emotion work, a concept founded in social psychology, suggests that individuals adjust their behavior as emotions are evoked or suppressed. Despite the growing evidence that emojis may influence judgments and decisions due to their deliberate expression of context and affect, the accounting research community has yet to investigate emojis’ impact. We experimentally explore whether emojis can soften nonprofessional investors’ perceptions of bad news or enhance perceptions of good news. We find that emojis modestly suppress participants’ positive emotions on positive news, influencing their investment-related judgments and decision-making. Subsequent data collection fails to replicate the initial findings in a less experienced participant pool, suggesting that investing experience may play a role. Our study enhances our understanding of the unintended consequences of emojis and introduces a sociology-based principle into the accounting literature.

scholarly journals Using Eye-Tracking to Understand Decision-Making in Conjoint Experiments

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-101
Author(s):  
Libby Jenke ◽  
Kirk Bansak ◽  
Jens Hainmueller ◽  
Dominik Hangartner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Eye Tracking ◽  
Cognitive Processing ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Absolute Number ◽  
Choice Data ◽  
Attribute Importance ◽  
New Information ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Conjoint experiments are popular, but there is a paucity of research on respondents’ underlying decision-making processes. We leverage eye-tracking methodology and a series of conjoint experiments, administered to university students and local community members, to examine how respondents process information in conjoint surveys. There are two main findings. First, attribute importance measures inferred from the stated choice data are correlated with attribute importance measures based on eye movement. This validation test supports the interpretation of common conjoint metrics, such as average marginal component effects (AMCEs), as measures of attribute importance. Second, when we experimentally increase the number of attributes and profiles in the conjoint table, respondents view a larger absolute number of cells but a smaller fraction of the total cells displayed. Moving from two to three profiles, respondents search more within-profile, rather than within-attribute, to build summary evaluations. However, respondents’ stated choices remain fairly stable regardless of the number of attributes and profiles in the conjoint table. Together, these patterns speak to the robustness of conjoint experiments and are consistent with a bounded rationality mechanism. Respondents adapt to complexity by selectively incorporating relevant new information to focus on important attributes, while ignoring less relevant information to reduce cognitive processing costs.

The Good News-Bad News Effect: Asymmetric Processing of Objective Information about Yourself

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Eil ◽  
Justin M Rao
Keyword(s):  
Negative Feedback ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Bayes Rule ◽  
Past Work ◽  
Objective Information ◽  
New Information ◽  
Accuracy And Precision ◽  
News Effect

We study processing and acquisition of objective information regarding qualities that people care about, intelligence and beauty. Subjects receiving negative feedback did not respect the strength of these signals, were far less predictable in their updating behavior and exhibited an aversion to new information. In response to good news, inference conformed more closely to Bayes' Rule, both in accuracy and precision. Signal direction did not affect updating or acquisition in our neutral control. Unlike past work, our design varied direction and agreement with priors independently. The results indicate that confirmation bias is driven by direction; confirmation alone had no effect. (JEL D82, D83)

scholarly journals The Testing of Belief-Adjustment Model and Framing Effect on Non-Professional Investor’s Investment Decision-Making

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Taufan Hanafi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Framing Effect ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Information Order ◽  
Adjustment Model ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Belief Adjustment

This study aims to find out the effect of belief-adjustment model and framing effect on non-professional investor’s investment decision making. The designs of experiment used in  this study are the presentation pattern of 2x2x2, disclosure pattern (step-by-step and end-of-sequence), disclosure evidence of information order (good news followed by bad news and  bad news followed by good news), and framing effect (framing condition according to the information and framing condition with the reversed information). The research hypotheses in this study are tested using parametric test. The dependent variable used in this study is investment decision making, while, the independent variables used in this study are belief-adjustment model and framing effect. The number of participants involved in this study is 80 undergraduate students of STIE Perbanas Surabaya majoring in Accounting or Management. The results indicate that there are significant differences in decision making and recency effect occurs between the investors who receive good news followed by bad news and the investors who receive bad news followed by good news in the step-by-step disclosure pattern with framing condition according to the information. The results of this study also show that primacy effect occurs between the investors who receive good news followed by bad news and the investors who receive bad news followed by good news in the step-by-step disclosure pattern with framing condition in reversed information.

scholarly journals How People Update Beliefs about Climate Change: Good News and Bad News

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cass R Sunstein ◽  
Sebastian Bobadilla-Suarez ◽  
Stephanie C. Lazzaro ◽  
Tali Sharot
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
International Agreement ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
New Information ◽  
Politics And Law ◽  
New Evidence

102 Cornell L. Rev. 1431 (2017)People are frequently exposed to competing evidence about climate change. We examined how new information alters people’s beliefs. We find that people who are not sure that man-made climate change is occurring, and who do not favor an international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, show a form of asymmetrical updating: They change their beliefs in response to unexpected good news (suggesting that average temperature rise is likely to be less than previously thought) and fail to change their beliefs in response to unexpected bad news (suggesting that average temperature rise is likely to be greater than previously thought). By contrast, people who strongly believe that manmade climate change is occurring, and who favor an international agreement, show the opposite asymmetry: They change their beliefs far more in response to unexpected bad news (suggesting that average temperature rise is likely to be greater than previously thought) than in response to unexpected good news (suggesting that average temperature rise is likely to be smaller than previously thought). The results suggest that exposure to varied scientific evidence about climate change may increase polarization within a population due to asymmetrical updating. We explore the implications of our findings for how people will update their beliefs upon receiving new evidence about climate change, and also for other beliefs relevant to politics and law.

scholarly journals Model Belief Adjustment dalam Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi Berdasarkan Informasi Nonakuntansi

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 149
Author(s):  
Anita Anggraeni ◽  
Luciana Spica Almilia
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Recency Effect ◽  
T Test ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Mix Design ◽  
Sequence Information ◽  
Investment Decision Making

<p><em>The purpose of this study is to examine is there any difference on investment decision making among participant that received good news information followed by bad news compared with participant that received bad news information followed by good news on the SbS and EoS information disclosure pattern, also long and short information series. The experiment design in this study is 2x2x2 mix design subject, which is the information disclosure pattern (step by Step and End of Sequence), information order (good news followed by bad news), and information series (long and short infomation series). The Independent Sample t-test used to examined the research hypothesis. The amount of participant involved on this study are 96 college students in STIE Perbanas Surabaya in Accountant and Management major. The result show that there were difference on investment decision making among participant that received good news information followed by bad news compared with participant that received bad news information followed by good news on the SbS information disclosure pattern and long information series and also occurs recency effect.</em></p><p align="center"><strong>Abstrak <br /></strong></p><p>Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menguji perbedaan keputusan investasi antara partisipan yang menerima informasi good news diikuti bad news dibandingkan dengan partisipan yang menerima informasi bad news diikuti good news, baik pada pola penyajian SbS maupun EoS dan seri informasi panjang dan pendek. Penelitian ini menggunakan metoda eksperimen 2x2x2 mix design, yaitu pola penyajian (step by step dan end of sequence) dan urutan informasi (good news diikuti bad news dan bad news diikuti good news) dan seri informasi (informasi panjang dan informasi pendek). Independent Sample t test digunakan untuk menguji hipotesis penelitian. Jumlah partisipan dalam penelitian ini adalah 96 mahasiswa Akuntansi dan Manajemen STIE Perbanas Surabaya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi dan terjadi recency effect bagi partisipan yang menerima good news diikuti bad news dibandingkan dengan partisipan yang menerima informasi bad news diikuti bad news pada pola penyajian SbS dan seri informasi panjang.<em><br /></em></p>

scholarly journals The Examination Belief Adjustment Model against Overconfidence Investor Decision Making Investments

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farita Dewi Rofiyah ◽  
Luciana Spica Almilia
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Of Experiments ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Recency Effects ◽  
Short Series ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Belief Adjustment

This study tested the model of belief adjustment in investment decision. This study aims to examine the difference in the final judgement given by investors using belief adjustment considering on the pattern of presentation (Step by Step and End of Sequence), order of information, series information and the level of overconfidence againts investment decision making. Design of Experiments in this study is that pattern of presentation 2x2x2x2 , Step by Step and End of Sequence, order of information (good news followed by bad news and bad news followed by good news), series information (long series dan short series) and the level of overconfidence. The research hypothesis of research in this study were tested by Independent Sample t-test. The result in this study showed the recency effect on the pattern of presentation of the Step by Step for information long series and short series. This is also reflected in the End of Sequence showed no effects occur on the order of a long series and recency effects occur in a short series.

scholarly journals Mitigation of order-effects on investment decision making

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Auravita Astania ◽  
Luciana Spica Almilia
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Order Effect ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Sequence Length ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Formation Pattern ◽  
Belief Adjustment

This study attests the belief-adjustment model to examine whether there are differences in investment decision making between the participants who obtain good news fol-lowed by bad news and those who obtain bad news followed by good news on the in-formation pattern which is processed based on end-of-sequence and long series infor-mation. The experiment design in this study is the pattern of presentation 1x1x2 end-of-Sequence, a long series information and directions of evidence (good news followed by bad news and bad news followed by good news). The research hypotheses were tested using Mann Whitney test. The variables used in this research are investment decision, pattern of presentation in end-of-sequence, length of the series of information, and order of evidence. The participants involved in this research are 47 students (ba-chelor program) of STIE Perbanas Surabaya majoring in Accounting and Manage-ment who are taking or have taken courses of Financial Statement Analysis and/or Investment Management and Capital Markets. The results show that there is no sig-nificant difference in the judgment between the participants who obtain good news followed by bad news and those who obtain bad news followed by good news. In addi-tion, there is no order-effect occurring in investment decision making.

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