Climate Variability in Tallgrass Prairie at Multiple Timescales: Konza Prairie Biological Station

Climate is a fundamental driver of ecosystem structure and function (Prentice et al. 1992). Historically, North American grassland and forest biomes have fluctuated across the landscape in step with century- to millennialscale climate variability (Axelrod 1985; Ritchie 1986). Climate variability of at decadal scale, such as the severe drought of the 1930s in the Central Plains of North America, caused major shifts in grassland plant community composition (Weaver 1954, 1968). However, on a year-to-year basis, climate variability is more likely to affect net primary productivity (NPP; Briggs and Knapp 1995; Knapp et al. 1998; Briggs and Knapp 2001). This is especially true for grasslands, which have recently been shown to display greater variability in net primary production in response to climate variability than forest, desert, or arctic/alpine systems (Knapp and Smith 2001). Although the basic relationships among interannual variability in rainfall, temperature, and grassland NPP have been well studied (Sala et al. 1988; Knapp et al. 1998; Alward et al. 1999), the linkages to major causes of climate variability at quasi-quintennial (~5 years) or interdecadal (~10 year) timescales in the North American continental interior, such as solar activity cycles, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the North Pacific Index (NP), are less well understood. In this chapter, we will examine how interannual, quasi-quintennial, and interdecadal variation in annual precipitation and mean annual temperature at a tallgrass prairie site (Konza Prairie Biological Station) may be related to indexes of solar activity, ENSO, NAO, and NP, and in turn how these indexes may be related to aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP). Specifically, we present (1) period-spectrum analyses to characterize the predominant timescales of temperature and precipitation variability at Konza Prairie, (2) correlation analyses of quantitative indexes of the major atmospheric processes with Konza temperature and precipitation records, and (3) the implications of variation in major atmospheric processes for seasonal and interannual patterns of ANPP. The Konza Prairie Biological Station (KNZ), which lies in the Flint Hills (39º05' N, 96º35' W), is a 1.6-million-ha region spanning eastern Kansas from the Nebraska border to northeastern Oklahoma (figure 20.1). This region is the largest remaining tract of unbroken tallgrass prairie in North America (Samson and Knopf 1994) and falls in the more mesic eastern portion of the Central Plains grasslands.