Examining Internal and External Contributors to Greenland Climate Variability Using CCSM3

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9745-9773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather J. Andres ◽  
W. R. Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Solar Insolation ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
External Sources ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Greenland climate variability is connected to internal and external sources of global climate forcing in six millennium simulations using Community Climate System Model, version 3. The external forcings employed are consistent with the protocols of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. Many simulated internal climate modes are characterized over the years 850–1850, including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), the east Atlantic pattern (EA), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Atlantic sea ice extent, and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Lagged correlation and multivariate regression methods connect Greenland temperatures and precipitation to these internal modes and external sources of climate variability. Greenland temperature and precipitation are found to relate most strongly to North Atlantic sea ice extent, the AMO, and the AMOC, that are themselves strongly interconnected. Furthermore, approximately half of the multidecadal variability in Greenland temperature and precipitation are captured through linear relationships with volcanic aerosol optical depth, solar insolation (including total solar irradiance and local orbital variability), the NAO, the EA, and the PDO. Relationships are robust with volcanic aerosol optical depth, solar insolation, and an index related to latitudinal shifts of the North Atlantic jet. Differences attributable to model resolution are also identified in the results, such as lower variability in the AMOC and Greenland temperature in the higher-resolution simulations. Finally, a regression model is applied to simulations of the industrial period to show that natural sources alone only explain the variability in simulated Greenland temperature and precipitation up to the 1950s and 1970s, respectively.

scholarly journals A 120 000-year record of sea ice in the North Atlantic?

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 2031-2051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niccolò Maffezzoli ◽  
Paul Vallelonga ◽  
Ross Edwards ◽  
Alfonso Saiz-Lopez ◽  
Clara Turetta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
First Year ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Nordic Seas ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Although it has been demonstrated that the speed and magnitude of the recent Arctic sea ice decline is unprecedented for the past 1450 years, few records are available to provide a paleoclimate context for Arctic sea ice extent. Bromine enrichment in ice cores has been suggested to indicate the extent of newly formed sea ice areas. Despite the similarities among sea ice indicators and ice core bromine enrichment records, uncertainties still exist regarding the quantitative linkages between bromine reactive chemistry and the first-year sea ice surfaces. Here we present a 120 000-year record of bromine enrichment from the RECAP (REnland ice CAP) ice core, coastal east Greenland, and interpret it as a record of first-year sea ice. We compare it to existing sea ice records from marine cores and tentatively reconstruct past sea ice conditions in the North Atlantic as far north as the Fram Strait (50–85∘ N). Our interpretation implies that during the last deglaciation, the transition from multi-year to first-year sea ice started at ∼17.5 ka, synchronously with sea ice reductions observed in the eastern Nordic Seas and with the increase in North Atlantic ocean temperature. First-year sea ice reached its maximum at 12.4–11.8 ka during the Younger Dryas, after which open-water conditions started to dominate, consistent with sea ice records from the eastern Nordic Seas and the North Icelandic shelf. Our results show that over the last 120 000 years, multi-year sea ice extent was greatest during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 and possibly during MIS 4, with more extended first-year sea ice during MIS 3 and MIS 5. Sea ice extent during the Holocene (MIS 1) has been less than at any time in the last 120 000 years.

scholarly journals Seasonal forecast of sea ice extent in the Barents sea

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
N. I. Glok ◽  
G. V. Alekseev ◽  
A. E. Vyazilova
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Main Component ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Earlier, the authors established a close relationship between the temperature of water coming from the North Atlantic and the sea ice extent (SIE) in the Barents Sea, which accounts for up to 75 % of the inter-annual variability of the monthly SIE from January to June. In turn, temperature variations of the incoming Atlantic water are affected from anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the low latitudes of the North Atlantic. These dependences served as the basis for the development of a forecast method. The empirical orthogonal functions decomposition of the SIE set from January to June for 1979–2014 was used. The main component of decomposition reflects 83 % of the inter-annual variability of SIE from January to June. Regression model of forecast is based on the relation of the main component with SST anomalies taking into account the delay. Comparison of prognostic and actual values of the climatic component for each of the 6 months showed the correctness of forecasts with a lead time of 27 to 32 months is 83 %, and for the prediction of the initial values of SIE 79 %. Appealing to the second predictor — SST anomalies in the Norwegian Sea allowed to improve the quality of the forecast of the observed values of SIE. At the same time, the forecast advance time was reduced to 9–14 months.

scholarly journals Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao-Yuan Yang ◽  
Jiping Liu ◽  
Yongyun Hu ◽  
Radley M. Horton ◽  
Liqi Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 CMIP5 models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations. For the models having large biases and using full-field initialization, the predicted sea ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint, deteriorating the decadal predictive skill. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the north Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the north Atlantic (particularly at a lead-time of 3–7 years), but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the north Atlantic at a lead-time of 6–8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any time scales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead-time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the MMEE outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer time scales, which is not the case for the Antarctic.

scholarly journals Impact of Labrador sea-ice extent on the North Atlantic oscillation

2004 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 603-612 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nils Gunnar Kvamstø ◽  
Paul Skeie ◽  
David B. Stephenson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Understanding cyclone variability in the Barents Sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Madonna ◽  
Gabriel Hes ◽  
Clio Michel ◽  
Camille Li ◽  
Peter Yu Feng Siew
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
The North ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

<p>Extratropical cyclones are a key player for the global energy budget as they transport a large amount of moisture and heat from mid- to high-latitudes. One of the main corridors for cyclones entering the Arctic from the North Atlantic is the Barents Sea, a region that has experienced the largest decrease in winter sea ice during the past decades. On the one hand, some studies showed that moisture transported by cyclones to the Arctic can lead to drastic temperature increases and sea ice melt. On the other hand, it has been suggested that the location of the sea ice edge can influence the tracks of cyclones. Therefore, it is crucial to understand what controls cyclone tracks through the Barents Sea into the Arctic to explain and potentially predict climate variability at high latitudes.</p><p>To address this question, we track cyclones from 1979 to 2018 in the ERA-Interim data set, characterizing and quantifying them depending on their genesis location and path. The focus is on cyclones entering the Barents Sea from the North Atlantic as they carry the most moisture into the Arctic. Despite a clear declining trend in sea ice in the Barents Sea, our results show neither significant changes in cyclone frequency nor in their tracks. However, we find that the large-scale flow and in particular the presence or absence of blocking in the Barents Sea influence the cyclone frequency in this region, providing a potential mechanism that controls high latitude climate variability.</p>

scholarly journals 120,000 year record of sea ice in the North Atlantic

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niccolò Maffezzoli ◽  
Paul Vallelonga ◽  
Ross Edwards ◽  
Alfonso Saiz-Lopez ◽  
Clara Turetta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Nordic Seas ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Although it has been demonstrated that the speed and magnitude of recent Arctic sea ice decline is unprecedented for the past 1,450 years, few records are available to provide a paleoclimate context for Arctic sea ice extent. Here we present a 120 kyr record of bromine enrichment from the RECAP ice core, coastal East Greenland, and reconstruct past sea ice conditions in the North Atlantic as far north as the entrance of the Arctic Ocean (50–85° N). Bromine enrichment has been previously employed to reconstruct first-year sea ice (FYSI) in the Canadian Arctic over the last glacial cycle. We find that during the last deglaciation, the transition from multi-year sea ice (MYSI) to FYSI started at ∼ 17.6 kyr, synchronous with sea ice reductions observed in the eastern Nordic seas (Müller and Stein, 2014; Hoff et al., 2016) and with the increase of North Atlantic ocean temperature (Dokken and Jansen, 1999). FYSI reached its maximum extent at 12.4–11.8 kyr, after which open-water conditions started to dominate, as supported by sea ice records from the eastern Nordic seas and the North Icelandic shelf. Our results show that over the last 120,000 years, sea ice extent was greatest during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 and MIS4, with decreased levels during MIS3 and the onset of the last glacial period (late-MIS5). Sea ice extent during the last 10 kyr (Holocene/MIS1) has been less than at any time in the last 120 kyr.

scholarly journals Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2429-2452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao-Yuan Yang ◽  
Jiping Liu ◽  
Yongyun Hu ◽  
Radley M. Horton ◽  
Liqi Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3–7 years), but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6–8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

The North Atlantic Ocean as a Modulator of Vegetation Greening/Browning in the Northern High Latitudes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard F. Borchert ◽  
Alexander J. Winkler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>Vegetation in the northern high latitudes shows a characteristic pattern of persistent changes as documented by multi-decadal satellite observations. The prevailing explanation that these mainly increasing trends (greening) are a consequence of external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing, i.e., due to the ubiquitous effect of CO2-induced fertilization and/or warming of temperature-limited ecosystems, however does not explain why some areas also show decreasing trends of vegetation cover (browning). We propose here to consider the dominant mode of multi-decadal internal climate variability in the north Atlantic region, the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), as the missing link in the explanation of greening and browning trend patterns in the northern high latitudes. Such a link would also imply potential for decadal predictions of ecosystem changes in the northern high latitudes.</p><p>An analysis of observational and reanalysis data sets for the period 1979-2019 shows that locations characterized by greening trends largely coincide with warming summer temperature and increasing precipitation. Wherever either cooling or decreasing precipitation occurs, browning trends are observed over this period. These precipitation and temperature patterns are significantly correlated with a North Atlantic sea surface temperature index that represents the AMV signal, indicating its role in modulating greening/browning trend patterns in the northern high latitudes.</p><p>Using two large ensembles of coupled Earth system model simulations (100 members of MPI-ESM-LR Grand Ensemble and 32 members of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Large Ensemble), we separate the greening/browning pattern caused by external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing from that caused by internal climate variability associated with the AMV. These sets of model simulations enable a clean separation of the externally forced signal from internal variability. While the greening and browning patterns in the simulations do not agree with observations in terms of magnitude and location, we find consistent internally generated greening/browning patterns in both models caused by changes in temperature and precipitation linked to the AMV signal. These greening/browning trend patterns are of the same magnitude as those caused by the external forcing alone. Our work therefore shows that internally-generated changes of vegetation in the northern lands, driven by AMV, are potentially as large as those caused by external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing. We thus argue that the observed pattern of greening/browning in the northern high latitudes could originate from the combined effect of rising CO<sub>2</sub> as well as the AMV.</p>

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