The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Tokhir Mirzoev ◽  
Rafael Portillo ◽  
Luis-Felipe Zanna
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Transfer Problem ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Short Run

The authors develop a tractable two-sector New Keynesian model to analyse the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. The analysis distinguishes between spending the aid (increasing expenditures and/or cutting revenues) and absorbing the aid—using the aid to finance a higher current account deficit. The standard treatment of the transfer problem implicitly assumes spending equals absorption. Here, a policy mix that results in spending but not absorbing the aid, a common reaction, generates demand pressures and results in an increase in real interest rates. It can also lead to a temporary real depreciation. Certain features of low-income countries, such as limited domestic financial markets, make a real depreciation more likely. The analysis presented in the chapter can help understand the experience of Uganda in the early 2000s.

Implementation Errors and Incomplete Information

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Portillo ◽  
Filiz Unsal ◽  
Stephen O’Connell ◽  
Catherine Pattillo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Incomplete Information ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Policy Frameworks

This chapter shows that limited effects of monetary policy can reflect shortcomings of existing policy frameworks in low-income countries rather than (or in addition to) the structural features often put forward in policy and academic debates. The chapter focuses on two pervasive issues: lack of effective frameworks for implementing policy, so that short-term interest rates display considerable unintended volatility, and poor communication about policy intent. The authors introduce these features into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model with incomplete information. Implementation errors result from insufficient accommodation to money demand shocks, creating a noisy wedge between actual and intended interest rates. The representative private agent must then infer policy intentions from movements in interest rates and money. Under these conditions, even exogenous and persistent changes in the stance of monetary policy can have weak effects, even when the underlying transmission (as might be observed under complete information) is strong.

Perspectives on inflation Targeting Regime in Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indirect Control ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Private And Public

The paper analyzes monetary policy of the Bank of Russia from 2008 to 2014. It presents the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators testifying to inability of the Bank of Russia to transit to inflation targeting regime. It is shown that the presence of short-term interest rates in the top borders of the percentage corridor does not allow to consider the key rate as a basic tool of monetary policy. The article justifies that stability of domestic prices is impossible with-out exchange rate stability. It is proved that to decrease excessive volatility on national consumer and financial markets it is reasonable to apply a policy of managing financial account, actively using for this purpose direct and indirect control tools for the cross-border flows of the private and public capital.

Determinants of Treasury-LIBOR Swap Spreads

2005 ◽  
Vol 08 (04) ◽  
pp. 687-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. K. Malhotra ◽  
Vivek Bhargava ◽  
Mukesh Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Swap Spreads

Using data from the Treasury versus London Interbank Offer Swap Rates (LIBOR) for October 1987 to June 1998, this paper examines the determinants of swap spreads in the Treasury-LIBOR interest rate swap market. This study hypothesizes Treasury-LIBOR swap spreads as a function of the Treasury rate of comparable maturity, the slope of the yield curve, the volatility of short-term interest rates, a proxy for default risk, and liquidity in the swap market. The study finds that, in the long-run, swap spreads are negatively related to the yield curve slope and liquidity in the swap market. We also find that swap spreads are positively related to the short-term interest rate volatility. In the short-run, swap market's response to higher default risk seems to be higher spread between the bid and offer rates.

scholarly journals The Short Run Effects of Health Aid in Low Income Countries:Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keneni Gutema Negeri
Keyword(s):  
Health Status ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Health Coverage ◽  
Health Aid ◽  
Short Run

Abstract Background The effect of health targeted aid in developing countries is debatable. This paper examines the short run effect of health aid on health status in low income countries of the world. Method The study estimates the short run effect of health aid on health status in low income countries. Infant mortality rate was used as a proxy for health status and a panel data was constructed from 34 countries for the period between 2000 and 2017. For the estimation, first difference GMM and System GMM were employed. Results The estimation results confirm the argument that health aid has a beneficial and statistically significant short run effect on the health status of low income countries: doubling health aid saves the lives of 20 infants per 10,000 live births. Conclusion From the findings of this paper it can be concluded that health aid could be one of the best tools with which the broader health status gap currently observed between high income and low income groups, could be eliminated and hence the target of Universal Health Coverage is met. However, recipient countries need to find ways of promoting domestic factors that have favorable impact on health sector as they cannot persistently relay up on external resources.

A Decade After the 2009 Global Recession: Macroeconomic Developments

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150011
Author(s):  
Wee Chian Koh ◽  
Shu Yu
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Global Recession ◽  
The Impact

Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well. However, the impact of the global recession varied across economies. EMDEs with stronger pre-crisis fundamentals — such as large foreign exchange reserves, sound fiscal positions, and low inflation — suffered milder growth slowdowns, in part due to their greater capacity to engage in monetary and fiscal stimulus. Low-income countries were also resilient, as foreign aid and inflows of remittances remained relatively stable. In contrast, EMDEs that were heavily dependent on short-term capital flows — such as portfolio investment and cross-border bank lending — fared less well, especially those in Europe and Central Asia. A key lesson for EMDEs is the need to strengthen macroeconomic frameworks and create policy space to prepare for future global downturns.

Interplays Between Methane Emission and Agricultural Output

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 56-69
Author(s):  
Ramesh Chandra Das ◽  
Arundhati Mukherjee
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Methane Generation ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

There have been debates among the so-called developed economies and less developed and emerging economies on the issue of ‘who is responsible for' the emission of excessive greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the ambient environment. While methane emissions from agriculture and livestock is one of the important elements of GHGs, it is also required for growth of the agriculture and allied activities for all economic categories. The present study, under this backdrop, examines long run and short run linkages between methane emissions and agriculture outputs for high and low to upper middle-income countries for the period 1981-2012. The results show that the series of methane emissions and agriculture output are cointegrated in the 15 member Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) group, low income and middle income countries signifying the responsibilities of these income groups in methane emissions. The responsible countries in the OECD are USA, UK, Japan, Germany, and Italy. Further, in short run dynamics, the Granger Causality results show that methane emissions make a cause to agriculture output for 15OECD and low-income countries, and agricultural output is a cause to methane generation for middle and all low to upper middle income countries. China, India, and Brazil cannot be blamed for making excessive methane generation as both the series are not cointegrated for them.

scholarly journals The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 87-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Galí
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
The State ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Future Research ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Keynesian Economics ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

In August 2007, when the first signs emerged of what would come to be the most damaging global financial crisis since the Great Depression, the New Keynesian paradigm was dominant in macroeconomics. Ten years later, tons of ammunition has been fired against modern macroeconomics in general, and against dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that build on the New Keynesian framework in particular. Those criticisms notwithstanding, the New Keynesian model arguably remains the dominant framework in the classroom, in academic research, and in policy modeling. In fact, one can argue that over the past ten years the scope of New Keynesian economics has kept widening, by encompassing a growing number of phenomena that are analyzed using its basic framework, as well as by addressing some of the criticisms raised against it. The present paper takes stock of the state of New Keynesian economics by reviewing some of its main insights and by providing an overview of some recent developments. In particular, I discuss some recent work on two very active research programs: the implications of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and the interaction of monetary policy and household heterogeneity. Finally, I discuss what I view as some of the main shortcomings of the New Keynesian model and possible areas for future research.

2016 Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust - Review of Interest Rate Structure

Policy Papers ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (50) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Credit Facility ◽  
Rate Structure ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Mechanism

This paper reviews the interest rate structure that would apply to the PRGT in 2017–18. Based on the interest rate setting mechanism agreed in 2009, the interest rate for the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) would be zero and the rate for the Standby Credit Facility (SCF) would be 0.25 percent. The interest rate for the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) was set permanently at zero in July 2015. Since the current mechanism was agreed, the Executive Board has granted successive exceptional interest waivers on all outstanding Fund concessional credit, setting all interest rates charged at zero percent. These waivers have been extended three times, providing interest rate relief to many low-income countries at a time when they faced considerable headwinds from the global economic environment. A strong case remains for maintaining zero rates on Fund concessional credit at the current global economic juncture. The global outlook for LICs has not significantly improved since the last review and downside risks remain significant. At the same time, many Directors noted at the last review in 2014 that the possibility of a prolonged period of very low interest rates warrants an early re-examination of the mechanism, including an exit strategy from repeated application of the waiver, with the objective of safeguarding the self-sustaining capacity of the PRGT. The paper seeks to respond to this call. It proposes that the PRGT interest rate mechanism be amended to accommodate anomalies created by a prolonged period of very low interest rates. Specifically, a new threshold is proposed whereby both the ECF and the SCF rate would be set at zero when the 12-month average SDR rate is less than or equal to 0.75 percent. This proposal will likely keep all PRGT interest rates under the mechanism at zero through at least 2020 given current market expectations while incurring only minimal subsidy costs and eliminating the need for continual waivers. In addition, staff proposes to waive interest rate charges on outstanding legacy balances under the Exogenous Shocks Facility (ESF), which are not determined via the interest rate mechanism, until the next review.

Institutional Reforms, Financial Development and Sovereign Debt: Britain 1690–1790

2006 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 906-935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Sussman ◽  
Yishay Yafeh
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Glorious Revolution ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Glorious Revolution ◽  
The Cost

We revisit the evidence on the relations between institutions, the cost of government debt, and financial development in Britain (1690–1790) and find that interest rates remained high and volatile for four decades after the Glorious Revolution, partly due to wars and instability; British interest rates co-moved with those in Holland; Debt per capita remained lower in Britain than in Holland until around 1780; and Britain did not borrow at lower rates than European countries with more limited protection of property rights. We conclude that, in the short run, institutional reforms are not rewarded by financial markets.

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