scholarly journals Volatility and Electoral Shocks

2019 ◽  
pp. 9-26
Author(s):  
Edward Fieldhouse ◽  
Jane Green ◽  
Geoffrey Evans ◽  
Jonathan Mellon ◽  
Christopher Prosser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
British Politics ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Over Time

The General Elections of 2015 and 2017 marked a historically high level of volatility, both at the aggregate level and at the level of the individual voter. In this chapter we describe how this increased volatility is part of a long-term trend in British politics, but one which accelerated markedly after 2010. At the aggregate level, 2015 and 2017 were the two most volatile elections since 1931. At the individual-level, they were the two most volatile elections we have data to measure. Unlike aggregate volatility, which has changed erratically over time, we show that individual-level volatility has been steadily and significantly increasing since 1964. Moreover, unlike many elections when vote flows favouring one party are compensated by counter-flows favouring another, voters in 2015 and 2017 moved systematically, first away from, and then towards the two major parties.

Voting Outcomes in the 1984 Democratic Party Primaries and Caucuses

1987 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Wayne Parent ◽  
Calvin C. Jillson ◽  
Ronald E. Weber
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Scholarly Inquiry ◽  
Level Analysis ◽  
Level Of Analysis

Scholarly inquiry concerning influences on electoral outcomes in the presidential nomination process, though extensive, has been conducted almost exclusively with data collected at the individual level of analysis. The Michigan model of normal vote analysis suggests that long-term influences measured at the aggregate level, such as the sociodemographic, economic, and ideological characteristics of the states, are also important in determining electoral outcomes. We present an aggregate-level analysis of state characteristics that affected the Hart, Jackson, and Mondale vote proportions in the 1984 Democratic caucuses and primaries. Our primary election models explain between 65% and 83% of the variance in candidate vote shares, with sociodemographic and economic factors as the leading indicators. In the caucuses, we find that campaign spending and sociodemographic influences are dominant in models that explain between 38% and 81% of the variance. We conclude with a brief discussion of what our findings mean for future Democratic candidates.

Have World, Country, and Industry Risks Changed over Time? An Investigation of the Volatility of Developed Stock Markets

2005 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 195-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Ferreira ◽  
Paulo M. Gama
Keyword(s):  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Decomposition Method ◽  
World Country ◽  
The Other ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The World ◽  
Developed Stock Markets ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis paper uses a volatility decomposition method to study the time-series behavior of equity volatility at the world, country, and local industry levels. Between 1974 and 2001, there is no noticeable long-term trend in any of the volatility measures. Then in the 1990s there is a sharp increase in local industry volatility compared to market and country volatility. Thus, correlations among local industries have declined. More assets are needed to achieve a given level of diversification, and there is more of a penalty for not being well diversified by industry. Local industry volatility leads the other volatility measures.

scholarly journals Introduction

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Edward Fieldhouse ◽  
Jane Green ◽  
Geoffrey Evans ◽  
Jonathan Mellon ◽  
Christopher Prosser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
British Politics ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Over Time

What has changed in British politics? Volatility. The British party system, and the electorate within it, have become more volatile over time, delivering substantial increases in fragmentation, in 2015, and then the largest two-party share in decades, in 2017. This chapter explains the focus of the book; what we explain, and then how we go about doing so. We focus on long-term changes in volatility, what explains that volatility, and what explains the parties that benefit from this in general elections, specifically focusing on vote outcomes in the 2015 and 2017 Elections through novel explanations combining the effects of electoral shocks in a context of increasing vote switching between elections. The chapter provides an overview of the book.

NAEP Trends: Main NAEP vs. Long-Term Trend

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert E. Beaton ◽  
James R. Chromy
Keyword(s):  
Term Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend

Personality change and environmental concerns

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher James Hopwood ◽  
Ted Schwaba ◽  
Wiebke Bleidorn
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Personality Change ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Big Five Personality ◽  
German Population ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Sustainable Behavior ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Over Time

Personal concerns about climate change and the environment are a powerful motivator of sustainable behavior. People’s level of concern varies as a function of a variety of social and individual factors. Using data from 58,748 participants from a nationally representative German sample, we tested preregistered hypotheses about factors that impact concerns about the environment over time. We found that environmental concerns increased modestly from 2009-2017 in the German population. However, individuals in middle adulthood tended to be more concerned and showed more consistent increases in concern over time than younger or older people. Consistent with previous research, Big Five personality traits were correlated with environmental concerns. We present novel evidence that increases in concern were related to increases in the personality traits neuroticism and openness to experience. Indeed, changes in openness explained roughly 50% of the variance in changes in environmental concerns. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the individual level factors associated with changes in environmental concerns over time, towards the promotion of more sustainable behavior at the individual level.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document