Temporal Trends in Disease Emergence and Re-emergence: World Regions, 1850–2006

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Cliff ◽  
M.R. Smallman-Raynor ◽  
P. Haggett ◽  
D.F. Stroup ◽  
S.B. Thacker
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Disease Emergence ◽  
Global Expansion ◽  
Geographical Scale ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Hiv Aids

In Chapters 4–8, we have examined a series of processes that, often working in combination, have served to precipitate the emergence and re-emergence of infectious and parasitic disease agents in the human population. In this chapter, we conclude our survey with an analysis of temporal trends in disease emergence and re-emergence since 1850. The discussion is informed by long-term shifts in the underlying causes of mortality encapsulated in Omran’s model of epidemiological transition (Section 1.4.1), paying particular attention to the manner in which sample infectious and parasitic diseases have waxed and waned at a variety of geographical scales from the global to the local over the last ∼150 years. Our choice of examples strikes a balance between coverage of geographical regions and epidemiological environments, and coverage of important diseases that we have not so far examined in detail. Our consideration is structured by geographical scale: (1) At the global level, we discuss three major human diseases that have undergone phases of rapid global expansion since 1850—plague, cholera, and HIV/AIDS (Section 9.2). (2) At the regional level, we examine twentieth-century trends in general infectious disease mortality in the advanced economies of Europe, North America, and the South Pacific, 1901–75, before looking at time sequences for sample emerging (Ebola–Marburg) and cyclically re-emerging (meningococcal) diseases in sub-Saharan Africa (Section 9.3). (3) At the national level, we use Hall’s (1993) data to establish the main trends in morbidity due to infectious diseases in Australia, 1917–91 (Section 9.4). (4) At the local level, we extend our examination of long-term disease trends in London, described for the pre-1850 period in Section 2.4, into the late twentieth century (Section 9.5). The chapter is concluded in Section 9.6. In this section, we examine long-term trends in three major human infectious diseases that have undergone phases of global expansion in the last 150 years: plague (Section 9.2.1); cholera (Section 9.2.2); and HIV/AIDS (Section 9.2.3).

scholarly journals Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 687-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
RICHARD S.J. TOL ◽  
KRISTIE L. EBI ◽  
GARY W. YOHE
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Absolute Poverty ◽  
Control Programs ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Sub Saharan

We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are closely related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Malaria deaths will first increase, because of population growth and climate change, but then fall, because of development. This pattern is robust to the choice of scenario, parameters, and starting conditions; and it holds for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever as well. However, the timing and level of the mortality peak is very sensitive to assumptions. Climate change is important in the medium term, but dominated in the long term by development. As climate can only be changed with a substantial delay, development is the preferred strategy to reduce infectious diseases even if they are exacerbated by climate change. Development can, in particular, support the needed strengthening of disease control programs in the short run and thereby increase the capacity to cope with projected increases in infectious diseases over the medium to long term. This conclusion must, however, be viewed with caution, because development, even of the sort envisioned in the underlying socio-economic scenarios, is by no means certain.

Disease Emergence and Re-emergence Prior to 1850

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Cliff ◽  
M.R. Smallman-Raynor ◽  
P. Haggett ◽  
D.F. Stroup ◽  
S.B. Thacker
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Prolonged Exposure ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Infectious Agents ◽  
Disease Emergence ◽  
European Expansion ◽  
Geographical Scale ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Human Infections

Infectious diseases have been evolving since the dawn of humankind. In Section 1.3, we noted some of the palaeopathological studies that have extended our knowledge of the occurrence of human infections back into pre-history, while recent genetic studies have indicated that the agents of diseases such as malaria (Plasmodium spp.) and leprosy (Mycobacterium leprae) first emerged in the human species many thousands of years ago (Carter and Mendis 2002; Monot et al. 2005). For the most part, however, our knowledge of the long history of disease emergence is based on the written record of earlier ages. In the present chapter, in so far as the historical evidence allows, we provide a brief and necessarily highly selective overview of disease emergence and cyclical re-emergence from the beginning of the written record to the mid-nineteenth century. McMichael (2004) identifies four great historical transitions in the relationship of humans and microbes that, since the initial advent of agriculture and livestock herding, have promoted the emergence and re-emergence diseases. These four transitions, each associated with a progressive increase in the geographical scale of operation (local → continental → intercontinental → global), are: (i) First historic transition (5,000–10,000 years ago). A local transition when early agrarian-based settlements brought humans into contact with sylvatic enzootic pathogens. As described under the ‘domestic-origins hypothesis’ in Section 1.3.2, close and prolonged exposure to domesticated animals and urban pests (for example, rodents and flies) resulted in the cross-species transmission of the ancestral agents of many modern-day human infectious diseases, including influenza, measles, smallpox, tuberculosis, and typhoid. (ii) Second historic transition (1,500–3,000 years ago). A continental-level transition fuelled by the military and trade contacts of early Eurasian civilizations which resulted in the cross-civilization transmission of infectious agents. In the wake of this historical transition, a trans- European ‘equilibration’ of infectious agents occurred and the diseases became endemic to the population. (iii) Third historic transition (200–500 years ago). An intercontinental transition associated with European expansion, resulting in the transoceanic spread of infectious agents.

Inequalities in urban areas: innovative approaches to complex issues

2002 ◽  
Vol 30 (59_suppl) ◽  
pp. 34-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roderick J. Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Social Development ◽  
Social Determinants ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Environmental Policies ◽  
Human Settlement ◽  
Negative Impacts

Urbanization, a characteristic of the twentieth century, is a profound transformation of human settlement processes and their outcomes, which has not been well understood in terms of both positive and negative impacts. This paper argues that the interrelations between urban planning, health, social, and environmental policies have been poorly articulated until now. Although sectoral approaches have often applied remedial and corrective measures to overcome unsatisfactory conditions in urban areas, today we know that infectious diseases stemming from insanitary conditions are not the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Europe. Nonetheless diverse forms of ill health remain associated with place of work and residence. Therefore, in order to deal with the complexity and diversity of urban areas there is an urgent need to move from conventional, sectoral approaches based on biomedical models of health to coordinated action stemming from an ecological interpretation of health including its social determinants. This kind of approach is presented in order to promote health and social development at the local level.

scholarly journals Genetics of Sub-Saharan African Human Population: Implications for HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald Mboowa
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Susceptible Host ◽  
Host Genetics ◽  
Evolutionary Forces ◽  
Host Genetic ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Hiv Aids

Sub-Saharan Africa has continued leading in prevalence and incidence of major infectious disease killers such as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. Epidemiological triad of infectious diseases includes susceptible host, pathogen, and environment. It is imperative that all aspects of vertices of the infectious disease triad are analysed to better understand why this is so. Studies done to address this intriguing reality though have mainly addressed pathogen and environmental components of the triad. Africa is the most genetically diverse region of the world as well as being the origin of modern humans. Malaria is relatively an ancient infection in this region as compared to TB and HIV/AIDS; from the evolutionary perspective, we would draw lessons that this ancestrally unique population now under three important infectious diseases both ancient and exotic will be skewed into increased genetic diversity; moreover, other evolutionary forces are also still at play. Host genetic diversity resulting from many years of malaria infection has been well documented in this population; we are yet to account for genetic diversity from the trio of these infections. Effect of host genetics on treatment outcome has been documented. Host genetics of sub-Saharan African population and its implication to infectious diseases are an important aspect that this review seeks to address.

scholarly journals Development of sustainable research excellence with a global perspective on infectious diseases: Centre de Recherches Médicales de Lambaréné (CERMEL), Gabon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Ramharter ◽  
Selidji T. Agnandji ◽  
Ayôla A. Adegnika ◽  
Bertrand Lell ◽  
Ghyslain Mombo-Ngoma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Medical Research ◽  
Medical Care ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Sub Saharan

SummaryMedical research in sub-Saharan Africa is of high priority for societies to respond adequately to local health needs. Often enough it remains a challenge to build up capacity in infrastructure and human resources to highest international standards and to sustain this over mid-term to long-term periods due to difficulties in obtaining long-term institutional core funding, attracting highly qualified scientists for medical research and coping with ever changing structural and political environments. The Centre de Recherches Médicales de Lambaréné (CERMEL) serves as model for how to overcome such challenges and to continuously increase its impact on medical care in Central Africa and beyond. Starting off as a research annex to the Albert Schweitzer Hospital in Lambaréné, Gabon, it has since then expanded its activities to academic and regulatory clinical trials for drugs, vaccines and diagnostics in the field of malaria, tuberculosis, and a wide range of poverty related and neglected tropical infectious diseases. Advancing bioethics in medical research in Africa and steadily improving its global networks and infrastructures, CERMEL serves as a reference centre for several international consortia. In close collaboration with national authorities, CERMEL has become one of the main training hubs for medical research in Central Africa. It is hoped that CERMEL and its leitmotiv “to improve medical care for local populations” will serve as an inspiration to other institutions in sub-Saharan Africa to further increase African capacity to advance medicine.

‘In search of lost time’, ‘friendship and archaeology’: a personal reminiscence of Ludovic Mann, Joseph Harrison Maxwell and George Applebey – my father

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement) ◽  
pp. 7-22
Author(s):  
George Applebey
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Rock Art ◽  
Personal Reminiscence ◽  
Lost Time

In this paper, I will reflect on my personal memories of Ludovic Mann, friend and mentor to my late father George Applebey, whose archaeological career is also a focus of the paper. They both worked together on Mann's most famous excavations at Knappers Farm, and the nearby painting of the Cochno Stone rock-art panel. However, these are only two examples of their long-term collaboration and friendship, and this paper will explore the broader context within which they worked. This will include consideration of other collaborators, such as J Harrison Maxwell, part of the ‘Ludovic Group’ in the first half of the twentieth century. The important role that all three men played in the development of Scottish archaeology is noted. The paper concludes with developments following Mann's death in 1955 including George Applebey's emergence as a noted amateur archaeologist in his own right, and the fate of the Mann and Applebey collections.

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