The Propensity Interpretation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Gillies
Keyword(s):  
Single Case ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Interpretation Of Probability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Propensity Interpretation ◽  
Single Case Propensity ◽  
Case Propensity

The propensity interpretation of probability was introduced by Popper in 1957, and the chapter begins with a discussion of Popper’s initial account of propensities and a comparison with Peirce’s related ideas. The original propensity interpretation had a number of strands, some of which could be accepted while others were rejected. This meant that the propensity interpretation could be, and was, developed in different ways by different philosophers of science. One point at issue was whether propensities were objective probabilities of single events. This led to a distinction between (i) single-case propensity theories, and (ii) long-run propensity theories. Another problem concerned the relation between propensities and causes – if propensities had a causal import, because of what is known as the Humphreys’ paradox they might not satisfy the standard axioms of probability. The chapter concludes by discussing how propensities might be connected to observed frequencies via the theory of statistical testing.

Probability and Propensities

2019 ◽  
pp. 182-190
Author(s):  
Paul Humphreys
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Formal Theory ◽  
Empirical Theory ◽  
Empirical Interpretation ◽  
Propensity Interpretation ◽  
Single Case Propensity ◽  
Case Propensity ◽  
Mathematical Interpretation

Retrospective reflections are provided on the papers “Why Propensities Cannot Be Probabilities,” “Some Considerations on Conditional Chances,” and “Probability Theory and Its Models” by Paul Humphreys. A discussion of whether probability theory is a mathematical or an empirical theory is provided and the point made that mathematical theories are not revised but replaced when used as models of empirical phenomena. Probability theory qua formal theory has a mathematical interpretation but any empirical interpretation, contra Quine, is completely detachable. A replacement for Quine’s web metaphor is suggested. The author assesses Donald Gillies’ response to Humphreys’ Paradox, and reasons not to abandon the single case propensity interpretation of probabilities are given. Responses to the paradox by Mauricio Suárez, Isabelle Drouet, Leslie Ballentine, and David Miller are discussed, and an argument given that the temporal evolution approach is primary for absolute propensities.

A single case propensity theory of explanation

Synthese ◽  
1974 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Fetzer
Keyword(s):  
Single Case ◽  
Single Case Propensity ◽  
Case Propensity ◽  
Propensity Theory

BSC and long-term deployment: an actors' perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-396
Author(s):  
Pierre-Laurent Bescos ◽  
Aude Deville ◽  
Philippe Foulquier
Keyword(s):  
Balanced Scorecard ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Actor Network Theory ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Balanced Scorecard ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Human Actors

PurposeThis paper examines the roles of the balanced scorecard (BSC) in a long-term perspective and with a large deployment along numerous hierarchical levels. For this purpose, we use a longitudinal analysis of an implementation in a mutual insurance company.Design/methodology/approachWe combine actor–network theory (ANT) with interventionist research (IVR) to analyze the interrelation between human and non-human actors. Our study is based on various materials like interviews, meeting reports, graphs and so on.FindingsThe BSC is considered as a non-human actor which influences the human actors and provides specific benefits from a long-term use, due to various roles played by this tool (a mediator role, completed by a role of translator and revealer).Research limitations/implicationsResearch based on larger cross-sectional studies are necessary to more deeply validate our results based on a single case study.Practical implicationsThis paper gives some insights on processes and on actors an organization can mobilize to maintain the benefits provided by a large BSC use in the long run.Originality/valueIn line with the ANT concepts, our main contribution is to explain the outcomes of an innovation in management accounting by the consequences of adaptation mechanisms grounded on actors, translations, alliances and trials of strength.

scholarly journals MACROSCOPIC OBSERVABLES AND THE BORN RULE, I: LONG RUN FREQUENCIES

2008 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 1173-1190 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. P. LANDSMAN
Keyword(s):  
Quantum Mechanics ◽  
Quantum System ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Born Rule ◽  
C Algebra ◽  
C Algebras ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Frequency Interpretation ◽  
Continuous Fields ◽  
The One

We clarify the role of the Born rule in the Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics by deriving it from Bohr's doctrine of classical concepts, translated into the following mathematical statement: a quantum system described by a noncommutative C*-algebra of observables is empirically accessible only through associated commutative C*-algebras. The Born probabilities emerge as the relative frequencies of outcomes in long runs of measurements on a quantum system; it is not necessary to adopt the frequency interpretation of single-case probabilities (which will be the subject of a sequel paper). Our derivation of the Born rule uses ideas from a program begun by Finkelstein [17] and Hartle [21], intending to remove the Born rule as a separate postulate of quantum mechanics. Mathematically speaking, our approach refines previous elaborations of this program — notably the one due to Farhi, Goldstone, and Gutmann [15] as completed by Van Wesep [50] — in replacing infinite tensor products of Hilbert spaces by continuous fields of C*-algebras. Furthermore, instead of relying on the controversial eigenstate-eigenvalue link in quantum theory, our derivation just assumes that pure states in classical physics have the usual interpretation as truthmakers that assign sharp values to observables.

THE MORBIDITY WITH A TEMPORARY INCAPACITY FOR WORK IN RUSSIA DURING THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) PANDEMIC OUTBREAK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.G. Gazimova ◽  
◽  
A.S. Shastin ◽  
V.O. Ruzakov
Keyword(s):  
Population Health ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Average Duration ◽  
Single Case ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak has had a global impact on all spheres of social life and population health. A study of the influence of a novel coronavirus infection COVID-19 on the working population health is an up-to-date issue. The objective is to assess changes in the morbidity with a temporary incapacity for work during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. Methods. We have analyzed the data on the morbidity with a temporary incapacity for work obtained from the unified interdepartmental information and statistical system. The change in the rates in 2020 is determined regarding the long-run annual average over 2015-2019 years. We ranked the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Results. In 2020, there was an increase in all three indicators of a temporary incapacity for work nationwide and in all federal districts. We compared two indicators: “the number of days of temporary incapacity per 100 workers” and “the number of cases of temporary incapacity per 100 workers”. It has emerged that the first indicator is higher both nationwide and in all federal districts than the second one, which is typical for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Conclusion. In 2020, there was an increase in the morbidity with a temporary incapacity for work in the Russian Federation as a whole and in all federal districts. It was evaluated according to the indicators: “the number of cases of temporary incapacity per 100 workers”, “the number of days of temporary incapacity per 100 workers” and “an average duration of a temporary incapacity for work”. There was a decrease in the number of cases and days of temporary incapacity for work per 100 employees in five constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Moreover, a decrease in the average duration of a single case was found in six regions. A reduction in the admission number may be the reason for an increase in the duration of a single case of a temporary incapacity for work. Additionally, the limited availability of an elective care is also a determining factor

Assessment of a rainwater harvesting system for pollutant mitigation at a commercial location in Raleigh, NC, USA

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinne E. Wilson ◽  
William F. Hunt ◽  
Ryan J. Winston ◽  
Patrick Smith
Keyword(s):  
Water Conservation ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Low Impact Development ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Pollutant Concentrations ◽  
Low Concentrations ◽  
Nitrite Nitrate

Low Impact Development (LID) and Water Sensitive Urban Design have as one of their tenets the use of rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems to provide water for use on site. Historically implemented in arid or semi-arid regions, RWH has recently surged in popularity in more humid regions, such as the southeastern USA, due to increased interest in water conservation during severe drought conditions. An LID commercial site in Raleigh, NC, incorporated RWH with other stormwater control measures to mitigate runoff quantity and improve runoff quality. A 57,900-liter RWH tank used for landscape irrigation was monitored to determine influent and effluent water quality. Samples were analyzed for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN), nitrite-nitrate (NOX), orthophosphate (Ortho-P) and total suspended solids (TSS). Low concentrations were observed for all pollutants monitored; for example, influent and effluent TP concentrations were 0.02 and 0.03 mg/L, respectively. Statistical testing showed significant increases in TAN and organic nitrogen (ON) concentrations by 33 and 38%, respectively, from inflow to outflow. NOX and TSS concentrations decreased significantly by 23 and 55%, respectively. Concentrations of all other pollutants were not significantly different between the inflow and outflow. Influent concentrations to the RWH tank were less than previously published rainfall pollutant concentrations, indicating potentially irreducible concentrations onsite. While a single case study, this RWH system appears to offer some pollutant mitigation, especially for TSS.

Popper and the Quantum Theory

1995 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
pp. 163-176
Author(s):  
Michael Redhead
Keyword(s):  
Quantum Mechanics ◽  
Quantum Theory ◽  
Quantum Logic ◽  
Scientific Discovery ◽  
Von Neumann ◽  
Interpretation Of Probability ◽  
Propensity Interpretation

Popper wrote extensively on the quantum theory. In Logic der Forschung (LSD) he devoted a whole chapter to the topic, while the whole of Volume 3 of the Postscript to the Logic of Scientific Discovery is devoted to the quantum theory. This volume entitled Quantum Theory and the Schism in Physics (QTSP) incorporated a famous earlier essay, ‘Quantum Mechanics without “the Observer”’ (QM). In addition Popper's development of the propensity interpretation of probability was much influenced by his views on the role of probability in quantum theory, and he also wrote an insightful critique of the 1936 paper of Birkhoff and von Neumann on nondistributive quantum logic (BNIQM).

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