Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach*

2012 ◽  
Vol 127 (3) ◽  
pp. 1469-1513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gauti B. Eggertsson ◽  
Paul Krugman
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Lost Decade ◽  
Debt Deflation

Abstract In this article we present a simple new Keynesian–style model of debt-driven slumps—that is, situations in which an overhang of debt on the part of some agents, who are forced into rapid deleveraging, is depressing aggregate demand. Making some agents debt-constrained is a surprisingly powerful assumption. Fisherian debt deflation, the possibility of a liquidity trap, the paradox of thrift and toil, a Keynesian-type multiplier, and a rationale for expansionary fiscal policy all emerge naturally from the model. We argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical episodes, including Japan’s lost decade (now in its 18th year) and the Great Depression itself.

Credit supply shocks and the Great Depression in Germany

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Breitenlechner ◽  
Daniel Gründler ◽  
Gabriel P Mathy ◽  
Johann Scharler
Keyword(s):  
Great Depression ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Expansion Phase ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Credit Supply ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Structural Vector

Abstract At the peak of the Great Depression in mid-1931, Germany experienced a severe banking crisis. We study to what extent credit constraints contributed to the downturn by fitting a structural vector autoregressive model with data from January 1925 to September 1935. Adverse credit supply shocks contributed strongly to the downturn especially at the time of the 1931 banking crisis. Before that, credit supply shocks had also contributed to the expansion phase preceding the depression. We also find that aggregate demand and U.S. business cycle shocks were the primary drivers of the German Great Depression.

War and the Next Lesson

Money ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Kenneth Galbraith ◽  
James K. Galbraith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
World War I ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
The United States ◽  
World War ◽  
John Maynard Keynes ◽  
The Great Depression

This chapter examines the lessons of World War II with respect to money and monetary policy. World War I exposed the fragility of the monetary structure that had gold as its foundation, the great boom of the 1920s showed how futile monetary policy was as an instrument of restraint, and the Great Depression highlighted the ineffectuality of monetary policy for rescuing the country from a slump—for breaking out of the underemployment equilibrium once this had been fully and firmly established. On the part of John Maynard Keynes, the lesson was that only fiscal policy ensured not just that money was available to be borrowed but that it would be borrowed and would be spent. The chapter considers the experiences of Britain, Germany, and the United States with a lesson of World War II: that general measures for restraining demand do not prevent inflation in an economy that is operating at or near capacity.

scholarly journals Atif Mian and Amir Sufi. House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again. University of Chicago Press. USA. 2014. 192 pages.

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-260
Author(s):  
Asad Zaman Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Recent Book ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
University Of Chicago Press

This is a review and a summary of some of the key arguments presented by Mian and Sufi in their recent book “House of Debt.” It highlights the contribution of Mian and Sufi by showing how they have solved the mystery of why there was a huge drop in aggregate demand during the Great Depression of 1929 and also following the recent Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08. The article shows how major economists like Keynes, Friedman, Lucas and others tried and failed to provide an adequate explanation of this mystery. The key to the mystery is the huge amount of levered debt present during both of these economic crises. The solution suggested by Mian and Sufi is to replace interest based debt by equity based contracts in financial markets. This solution resonates strongly with Islamic teachings on finance. These links are also highlighted in this article. JEL classification: B22, E12, E32 Keywords: Great Depression, Global Financial Crisis, Debt-Deflation, Levered Debt

scholarly journals New Keynesian Liquidity Trap and Conventional Fiscal Stance: An Estimated DSGE Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 152-169
Author(s):  
Olatunji Abdul Shobande ◽  
Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Transmission Channel ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables

Abstract The study investigates the effect of New Keynesian liquidity trap on fiscal stance in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan economies. We developed our DSGE model in the context of an optimal and persistent interactive fiscal policy, which allows us to track the transmission channel through which shocks are distributed among real economic variables. The evidence suggests that zero lower bound mitigates the ability of monetary policy to absorb the effect of exogenous shock on the macroeconomic variables while expansionary fiscal policy was able to absorb the shock persistence transmitted from the nominal interest rate.

Tunisian Fiscal Policy Effects in a New Keynesian Model With Price Rigidity and Monopolistic Competition

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-31
Author(s):  
Slah Slimani
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper applies a multivariate neo-Keynesian DSGE model to study the effects of changes in Tunisian public spending on the business cycle, private consumption, wages, interest rate, and inflation rate in the presence of monopolistic competition and price nominal short-term rigidity. The main finding of this paper shows a Tunisian pro-cyclical fiscal policy. Expansionary public spending has two initial effects. The output increases due to the usual increase in labor supply, and aggregate demand increases due to an incomplete crowding out of private consumption. By increasing aggregate demand, the central bank increases the nominal interest rate, which moves in concert with inflation in order to counteract inflationary pressures. Households reduce their consumer spending at the same time as the real interest rate increases. Some companies are responding to the change in the interest rate by reducing their expenses, their employment demands, and their capital utilization rates.

scholarly journals Post-2008 Brazilian fiscal policy: an interpretation through the analysis of fiscal multipliers

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-124
Author(s):  
Celso José Costa Junior ◽  
Alejandro C. García Cintado ◽  
Armando Vaz Sampaio
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Brazilian Government ◽  
The Government

Abstract The global crisis that erupted in 2007 led many countries to embark on countercyclical fiscal policies as a way to cushion the blow of a depressed aggregate demand. Advocates of discretionary measures emphasize that fiscal policy can indeed stimulate the economy. The main goal of this work is to assess whether the fiscal policies pursued by the Brazilian government in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, succeeded in bringing the economy back on track in a sustainable fashion. To this end, the fiscal multipliers of five different shocks are studied in a small open-economy New Keynesian framework. Our results point to the government spending and public investment as the most effective fiscal tools for combating the crisis. However, the highest fiscal multiplier turned out to be the one associated with excise tax reductions.

scholarly journals Is this 'it'? An outline of a theory of depressions

2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 451-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
FERNANDO J. CARDIM DE CARVALHO
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The United States ◽  
Main Mechanism ◽  
Downward Movement ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Level Of Activity ◽  
The Us ◽  
Debt Deflation

ABSTRACT The crisis initiated in the United States in 2007, and spread worldwide in 2008, has been compared to the Great Depression of the 1930s. They have in common a deep fall in the level of activity (although in the 2010s government intervention was able to contain the fall before it could reach the dimensions of the 1930s), followed by a period where recovery is uncertain and fragile, as has been the case both in the US and in Western Europe. The paper outlines a theory of depression that comprises both aspects. The theory draws on the theoretical contributions of Keynes, Fisher, Minsky and Leijonhufvud, proposing that the concept of "corridor of stability" may help to explain how an initial adverse aggregate shock may lead to a contractionary spiral, where debt deflation is main mechanism to explain the downward movement of the economy and why one should expect a period of weak and volatile recovery to follow it.

Was Debt Deflation Operative during the Great Depression?

2005 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Fackler ◽  
Randall E. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Great Depression ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Debt Deflation
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