Confidence and the Propagation of Demand Shocks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
George-Marios Angeletos ◽  
Chen Lian
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Feedback Loop ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Nominal Rigidity ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Private Spending ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract We revisit the question of why shifts in aggregate demand drive business cycles. Our theory combines intertemporal substitution in production with rational confusion, or bounded rationality, in consumption and investment. The first element allows aggregate supply to respond to shifts in aggregate demand without nominal rigidity. The second introduces a “confidence multiplier,” that is, a positive feedback loop between real economic activity, consumer expectations of permanent income, and investor expectations of returns. This mechanism amplifies the business-cycle fluctuations triggered by demand shocks (but not necessarily those triggered by supply shocks); it helps investment to comove with consumption; and it allows front-loaded fiscal stimuli to crowd in private spending.

Business-cycle fluctuations in economic activity

2021 ◽  
pp. 105-125
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Two Phases

This chapter explains what the business cycle is and what causes business-cycle fluctuations. We call fluctuations in economic activity around the long-term growth trend ‘the business cycle’. The business cycle consists of two phases. The first is a period of strong economic activity. The second, following the first, is a period of weak economic activity. We call the first phase of the business cycle an ‘expansion’ and the second phase a ‘contraction’ or ‘recession’. The chapter explains what causes business cycles, and examines the empirical evidence on the lengths and strengths of the typical business cycle. It finds that expansions typically last longer than recessions. The chapter also shows that the length of expansions has increased during recent decades.

scholarly journals Business Cycles in Algerian Economy: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-100
Author(s):  
Abdelsalam BOUKHEROUFA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

The main objective of this paper is to highlight the most important shocks that drives the business cycles in the Algerian economy. Using Bayesian estimation techniques, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) using four time series of the Algerian macroeconomics. Through this estimated model, which succeeded in capturing the dynamics of the Algerian economy data, we found three main results: First, the main causes of business cycle fluctuations in the Algerian economy are aggregate demand shocks. Second, the of government spending shock play the most important role in output fluctuations. Third, empirical results show evidences of procyclical in government spending policies.

Albert Aftalion's Macrodynamic Theory of Endogenous Business Cycles

1997 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecile Dangel ◽  
Alain Raybaut
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Endogenous Business Cycles ◽  
Careful Specification ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Monetary Business Cycles ◽  
Desperate Attempt

Albert Aftalion is certainly one of the best known French economists of the first half of the twentieth century. The influence he exerted during his lifetime over the scientific community of his homeland was considerable, and he was promptly acknowledged abroad to be one of the leading theorists of the business cycle. While he is best known as one of the inventors of the acceleration principle (Haberler 1937), we will focus on Aftalion's endogenous explanation of non-monetary business cycles and, more specifically, on the theoretical framework supporting Les crises périodiques de surproduction. Though this work can be seen as a mere “(desperate) attempt” to reconcile the law of markets with general overproduction (Abraham-Frois 1987), we argue instead that Aftalion's failure to construct an equilibrium theory of aggregate overproduction can be traced back to his inadequate treatment of aggregate demand. According to him, long roundabout processes are what generate cyclical fluctuations within a setting in which commodities produced and brought to the market always find an outlet. In other words, the law of markets implies market clearing where declines in prices instead of involuntary stock-building occur in the event of a crisis. How demand behaves in such a setting requires careful specification, which is precisely what is lacking in Aftalion's model.

DO GLOBAL CRUDE OIL MARKET SHOCKS HAVE DIFFERENTIAL EFFECTS ON US REGIONS?

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1978-2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bebonchu Atems ◽  
Mark Melichar
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Industrial Composition ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Market Shocks

The paper investigates whether US regions respond differently to shocks in the crude oil market. We disentangle oil market shocks into distinct demand and supply shocks and examine the response of regional personal income to these shocks. Results indicate that for most regions, oil supply shocks decrease real personal income. Except for the Rocky Mountains and the Southwest, global aggregate demand shocks are recessionary, typically about a year and a half after the shock. When we split our data into oil-producing and non-oil-producing regions, we find that global aggregate demand shocks have no effect on oil-producing regions but cause a decrease in income in non-oil-producing regions. Our analysis further indicates that oil-specific demand shocks have positive and persistent impacts on oil-producing regions but are recessionary in non-oil-producing regions. We also document significant asymmetries in the regional responses to small versus large oil shocks. In addition, the paper shows that regional differences in industrial composition explain some of the variation in the responses of real regional personal income to oil shocks.

scholarly journals A Theory of Demand Shocks

2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 2050-2084 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido Lorenzoni
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Aggregate Productivity ◽  
Productivity Shocks ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Public Signal ◽  
Heterogeneous Productivity

This paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations regarding aggregate productivity. Agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks, they observe their own productivity and a noisy public signal regarding aggregate productivity. The public signal gives rise to “noise shocks,” which have the features of aggregate demand shocks: they increase output, employment, and inflation in the short run and have no effects in the long run. Numerical examples suggest that the model can generate sizable amounts of noise-driven volatility. (JEL D83, D84, E21, E23, E32)

ASYMMETRY AND THE AMPLITUDE OF BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS: A QUANTITATIVE INVESTIGATION OF THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL FRICTIONS

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manoj Atolia ◽  
John Gibson ◽  
Milton Marquis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Quantitative Investigation ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Key Features ◽  
The Business Cycle

We examine the quantitative significance of financial frictions that reduce firms' access to credit in explaining asymmetric business cycles characterized by disproportionately severe downturns. Using rate spread data to calibrate the severity of these frictions, we successfully match several key features of U.S. data. Specifically, although output and consumption are relatively symmetric (with output being slightly more asymmetric), investment and hours worked display significant asymmetry over the business cycle. We also demonstrate that our financial frictions are capable of significantly amplifying adverse shocks during severe downturns. Although the data suggest that these frictions are only active occasionally, our results indicate that they are still a significant source of macroeconomic volatility over the business cycle.

Synchronisation of Regional Business Cycles of Eastern Polish Provinces with the National Cycle in the Context of Regional Economic Structures

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-171
Author(s):  
Rafał Warżała
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Regional Variation ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Band Pass ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Regional Perspective

The objective of the article is to determine the degree of regional variation among provinces located in so-called Eastern Poland. The criterion for such variation is the structure of the generated GDP and the course of fluctuations in business cycles related to it. The analysis of economy structures in such provinces, as well as application of band-pass filters, used for separating the course of cyclical fluctuations, enabled the evaluation of the degree of structural discrepancies and business cycle discrepancies in five examined provinces. The analysis of cycle morphology in a regional perspective confirmed significant discrepancies in the course of the business cycle fluctuations in comparison to the cycle for Poland in general. The relation between the structure of the generated regional product and its co-convergence with the reference cycle is also visible. Regions characterised by a much higher or much lower share of agriculture in the GDP show different sensitivity to business cycle changes. Furthermore, these regions of Eastern Poland which have industries with a clearly pro-export nature (Warmia and Mazury, Podlasie and Podkarpackie) retain their separate character in the course of the fluctuations of the business cycle, differing from other regions included in the examined area of the country.

scholarly journals Business-Cycle Anatomy

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (10) ◽  
pp. 3030-3070 ◽  
Author(s):  
George-Marios Angeletos ◽  
Fabrice Collard ◽  
Harris Dellas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Propagation Mechanism ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Medium Scale ◽  
Nominal Rigidity ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
Macroeconomic Time Series ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Rule Out

We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role: technology or other shocks that map to TFP movements; news about future productivity; and inflationary demand shocks of the textbook type. Models aimed at accommodating demand-driven cycles without a strict reliance on nominal rigidity appear promising. (JEL C22, E10, E32)

scholarly journals Statistical analysis of business cycle fluctuations in Poland before and after the crisis

Equilibrium ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Łukasz Lenart ◽  
Błażej Mazur ◽  
Mateusz Pipień
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Inference Method ◽  
Statistical Tools ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Polish Economy

The main objective of the paper is to investigate properties of business cycles in the Polish economy before and after the recent crisis. The essential issue addressed here is whether there is statistical evidence that the recent crisis has affected the properties of the business cycle fluctuations. In order to improve robustness of the results, we do not confine ourselves to any single inference method, but instead use different groups of statistical tools, including non-parametric methods based on subsampling and parametric Bayesian methods. We examine monthly series of industrial production (from January 1995 till December 2014), considering the properties of cycles in growth rates and in deviations from long-run trend. Empirical analysis is based on the sequence of expanding-window samples, with the shortest sample ending in December 2006. The main finding is that the two frequencies driving business cycle fluctuations in Poland correspond to cycles with periods of 2 and 3.5 years, and (perhaps surprisingly) the result holds both before and after the crisis. We, therefore, find no support for the claim that features (in particular frequencies) that characterize Polish business cycle fluctuations have changed after the recent crisis. The conclusion is unanimously supported by various statistical methods that are used in the paper, however, it is based on relatively short series of the data currently available.

scholarly journals Should the EMU stop enlarging?

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 459-477
Author(s):  
Tanja Broz
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
New Eu Member States ◽  
Over Time

The aim of this research is to assess what would happen with the business cycle synchronization in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), if all new EU member states introduced the euro. In addition, the paper aims to explore how business cycle correlations have evolved over time. The assumption is that, if business cycles in the EMU members are not correlated and the state of integration remains as it is, the ECB?s one-size-fits-all policy will require members to follow policies which are politically difficult to implement. Hence, we are analyzing whether the EMU should stop accepting new entrants in order to stop deteriorating mutual business cycle correlation. Results based on correlations of shocks between the EMU and individual countries and their sizes show that correlation of supply shocks would remain relatively high if all members introduced the euro, but low correlation of demand shocks, different sizes of shocks and transmission of shocks still remain as significant problems.

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