Low-dose glucocorticoid should be withdrawn or continued in systemic lupus erythematosus? A systematic review and meta-analysis on risk of flare and damage accrual
Abstract Objective To assess the risk of flare and damage accrual after low dose glucocorticoids (GC) discontinuation in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods We performed a comprehensive literature search of PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library and Scopus databases from inception to July 2020 for studies concerning relapses/damage accrual in SLE patients. Pooled incidence rates of flare and time to flare with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) after GC withdrawal were calculated. Summary risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI of flare/organ damage accrual risk were computed using a random or fixed effects model. Results 738 SLE patients with GC discontinuation in 17 publications were eligible for the final analysis. In the primary meta-analysis, the pooled incidence of flare was 24% (95% CI 21-27%) and 13% (95% CI 8-18%) for global and major flare respectively. Pooled time to flare was 21.08 (95% CI 9.32-32.85) months. In the secondary meta-analysis, GC discontinuation showed an increased risk of flare comparing with GC continuation [RR (95% CI) =1.38 (1.01-1.89)], but the risk of major flares was not increased (RR = 1.77, 95% CI 0.40-7.83). Moreover, GC withdrawal was associated with a borderline reduction of risk in SDI increase in comparison with GC continuation (RR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.38 - 1.09). Conclusion GC discontinuation leads to a slightly increased risk of flare, however no increase in major flare and a borderline reduction of risk in further damage in SLE patients. Baseline screening for candidate patients and long-term follow up after GC withdrawal are needed to reliably evaluate the organ damage increase.