scholarly journals An Analysis of Future Private Timber Supply Potential in Western Oregon

2003 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 166-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randall R. Schillinger ◽  
Darius M. Adams ◽  
Gregory S. Latta ◽  
Adrienne K. van Nalts
Keyword(s):  
Land Values ◽  
Forest Industry ◽  
Net Returns ◽  
Density Control ◽  
Commercial Thinning ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Minimum Age ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Riparian Protection ◽  
Nipf Owners

Abstract Projections of potential supply with volume-flow and market-based models suggest that western Oregon forest industry owners could sustain cut at recent levels, stemming the 40 yr declining trend in their harvest. NIPF owners could raise harvests to near historical peak levels. These harvests would entail oscillating long-run inventories under the market projection and stable to declining inventories in the even-flow case. Average clearcut age would decline over the projection. Forest industry management would shift toward plantations with thinning and early density control. NIPF management would continue to depend on natural regeneration with increased use of commercial thinning. Simulated riparian protection policies lower harvest roughly in proportion to the land base reduction, raise log prices, and drive up the price of land not subject to restrictions. The present value of future net returns to private timberland owners would decline. A policy to extend the minimum age of clearcut harvest could have large near-term impacts on both industrial and NIPF owners. Prices rise sharply, and harvest declines in the near term. In the longer term, the policy acts like an enforced supply expansion, raising harvest and depressing prices. Timberland owners lose both in terms of income and in the reduction of bare land values due to lower product prices and harvest timing restrictions. West. J. Appl. For. 18(3):166–174.

An Analysis of Future Softwood Timber Supply in Western Washington

1994 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 81-87
Author(s):  
Darius M. Adams ◽  
Ralph J. Alig ◽  
James A. Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Private Forest ◽  
Land Loss ◽  
Private Lands ◽  
Data Rates ◽  
Forest Practices ◽  
Minimum Age ◽  
Western Washington ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Private Management ◽  
Forest Practice

Abstract Western Washington faces many changes in its private timber resources, in policies regulating private forest practices, and in management directions on public lands that could markedly alter future timber supplies. Assuming stability of forest practice regulations extant in early 1992 and in past trends in private management, future nonfederal softwood harvest could change little from the average levels of the 1980s. A 70% reduction in national forest harvests could reduce total western Washington cut by less than 10%. Our analysis demonstrates the impacts of uncertainties in this projection, including the basic inventory data, rates of land loss, rates of private management intensification, and future forest practice regulations. A key feature in all scenarios is the limited volume of older timber from which to draw near-term harvest on private lands. Thus, conditions or regulations affecting the availability of older timber or the minimum age of harvest have large near-term harvest impacts. West. J. Appl. For. 9(3):81-87.

scholarly journals An Agricultural Value Tax as an Alternative to Land Use Tax or Market Value Tax on Land

1975 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-143
Author(s):  
Fred C. White ◽  
Bill R. Miller ◽  
Charles A. Logan
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Value Assessment ◽  
Marginal Product ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Net Returns ◽  
Agricultural Use ◽  
Income Stream

A use-value assessment tax requires a system by which agricultural land values may be established. Land value in agricultural use can in principle be determined from the land's income-generating ability. The value of agricultural land can be based upon the capitalized income stream, which implies that net income attributable to land resource, or more theoretically, its value of the marginal product, can be capitalized into economic value. A major weakness in the process of determining net returns to land is the requirement that returns to other production inputs can be determined accurately. To be exact, the marginal productivity of every input must be known.

Rent Capture in an Individual Transferable Quota Fishery

1992 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 497-503 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Quentin Grafton
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Economic Rent ◽  
Net Returns ◽  
Individual Transferable Quota ◽  
Long Run

The problem of capturing economic rent in a fishery regulated by an individual transferable quota scheme is addressed using a profit tax and a quota tax as two methods of rent collection. Using a theoretical model of a fishery with representative fishers employing different harvesting functions, the effects of the taxes are evaluated with respect to their ability to capture rent, flexibility to adjust to changes in the fishery, effects upon economic efficiency, the burden of taxation on different fishers, and ease of implementation. A quota tax is shown to be preferred over a comparable profit tax by those fishers who earn the highest average net returns on quota owned. A quota tax also has the potential to allow fishers to capture the full benefits of efficiency improvements. The profit tax can allow for greater risk sharing between the regulator and fishers and is able to capture the entire rent in the fishery in both the short and long run.

The Next Generation's Forest: Woodland Owners' Attitudes Toward Estate Planning and Land Preservation in Connecticut

1994 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephpen H. Broderick ◽  
Kenneth P. Hadden ◽  
Brian Heninger
Keyword(s):  
New England ◽  
Mail Survey ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Estate Planning ◽  
Land Protection ◽  
Southern New England ◽  
Extension System ◽  
Nipf Owners ◽  
The University

Abstract The tremendous escalation in property values during the 1980s created new problems and issues in the education of southern New England NIPF owners. Among these was an increased need for education on estate planning and land protection techniques. This paper describes the approach taken by the University of Connecticut Cooperative Extension System and several partners to assess NIPF owners' knowledge levels and needs in these areas. It reports on the results of a mail survey to NIPFs and on the implications those results have for future research and educational efforts. The results and implications should be applicable in other states where high land values and land fragmentation are important issues. North. J. Appl. For. 11(2):47-52.

WHAT DOES THE 2°C TARGET IMPLY FOR A GLOBAL CLIMATE AGREEMENT IN 2020? THE LIMITS STUDY ON DURBAN PLATFORM SCENARIOS

2013 ◽  
Vol 04 (04) ◽  
pp. 1340008 ◽  
Author(s):  
ELMAR KRIEGLER ◽  
MASSIMO TAVONI ◽  
TINO ABOUMAHBOUB ◽  
GUNNAR LUDERER ◽  
KATHERINE CALVIN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Policy ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Emissions Intensity ◽  
Near Term

This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model-based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2°C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Platform scenarios investigated in the LIMITS study — all assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels as well as different long-term concentration targets — exhibit a probability of exceeding the 2°C limit of 22–41% when reaching 450 (450–480) ppm CO 2 e , and 35–59% when reaching 500 (480–520) ppm CO 2 e in 2100. Forcing and temperature show a peak and decline pattern for both targets. Consistency of the resulting temperature trajectory with the 2°C target is a societal choice, and may be based on the maximum exceedance probability at the time of the peak and the long run exceedance probability, e.g., in the year 2100. The challenges of implementing a long-term target after a period of fragmented near-term climate policy can be significant as reflected in steep reductions of emissions intensity and transitional and long-term economic impacts. In particular, the challenges of adopting the target are significantly higher in 2030 than in 2020, both in terms of required emissions intensity decline rates and economic impacts. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives.

Policy barriers to sustainable agriculture

1989 ◽  
Vol 4 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 135-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas L. Young
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Resource Depletion ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Incremental Change ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Farm Programs ◽  
Near Term

AbstractU.S. agriculture, which has developed in a mixed environment of private initiative and government support, is very successful by many measures. American farmers produce record levels of food and fiber per farm worker at very low budgetary cost to consumers. Recently, however, concern about resource depletion and agrichemical pollution has caused critics to question the environmental sustainability of the agricultural production system. Furthermore, pressures to trim the growing contribution of agricultural subsidies to the national budget deficit have led legislators and others to question the sustainability of the federal farm programs. Low agrichemical input or sustainable agricultural practices, such as nitrogen-fixing legumes in rotation with cereals, could reduce environmental damage. The selectivity and structure of historical farm programs, however, have economically favored conventional systems. Farm programs subsidize only about half the total value of agricultural products. Feed and food grains, cotton, and dairy products receive the lion's share of payments. Soil-building crops like forage legumes, most edible legumes, hay, and pasture are excluded. Secondly, the structure of commodity programs favors intensive production of program crops supported by high fertilizer and pesticide applications. This incentive emanates from the policy of computing the farm-wide deficiency payment for a program crop proportionately to the farm's historical “base” acreage and “established” yield for the crop. The leading farm program crops of corn, wheat, cotton, and soybeans occupied slightly over 60 percent of cropped acres and received at least 65 percent of all U.S. agricultural pesticides and fertilizer in the mid 19809s. Despite budget pressures and environmental concerns, near term termination of farm programs or decoupling them from production of particular commodities is unlikely. Fears about aggravating financial stress, reducing land values, and harming agrichemical supply businesses in program crop-growing regions will promote cautious incremental change. Recent promising signs of “creeping decoupling” include the 1986 freeze on established yields, the gradual reduction in target prices, the permitting of multi-year grass or legume plantings as set aside acreage, and the loosening of base acreage restrictions within the 1988 Drought Relief Bill.

Forecasting Kansas land values using net farm income

2017 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allen M. Featherstone ◽  
Mykel R. Taylor ◽  
Heather Gibson
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capitalization Rate ◽  
One Year

Purpose With the decline of US net farm income from $123.8 billion in 2013 to $71.5 billion forecasted for 2016, concern has developed regarding the future path of agricultural land values. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between net farm income, cash rents and land values in the state of Kansas and provides insight regarding future land values. Design/methodology/approach This study estimates partial adjustment models for cash rent and land values and uses those results to infer long-run capitalization rates and earnings multipliers. These models are used to forecast Kansas land values through 2018 and also the long-run price of farmland given 2016 expectations. Findings Land adjusts to changes in Kansas net farm income slowly with a one-year elasticity of 6.7 percent. The long-run elasticity is 96.9 percent which is very close to the 100 percent suggested by the theoretical income capitalization model. The long-run multiplier for income in Kansas is 21.71 which implies a capitalization rate of 4.61 percent. The estimated results suggest that Kansas land values would peak in 2016 and begin to slowly decline. If market conditions were to remain the same, land values would ultimately decrease to $1,171 per acre, a 28 percent decline from current levels. Originality/value Declines of the magnitude in estimated land values could negatively affect the financial condition of the sector. Factors such as a change in the long-run capitalization rate or unexpected supply or demand shocks for agricultural commodities globally could certainly alter the long-term prospects. However, current expectations as of March 2016 suggest that farmers will face difficult conditions over the next few years.

scholarly journals Comparison of Long-Run Net Returns of Conventional and Organic Crop Rotations

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 7891
Author(s):  
Michael R. Langemeier ◽  
Xiaoyi Fang ◽  
Michael O’Donnell
Keyword(s):  
Crop Rotation ◽  
Small Proportion ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Downside Risk ◽  
Crop Rotations ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Net Returns ◽  
Long Run

This study compares the long-run net returns to land of conventional corn/soybean and corn/soybean/wheat crop rotations to that of an organic corn/soybean/wheat crop rotation. The net returns to land for the organic crop rotation were found to be approximately $68 and $74 per acre higher than those of the conventional corn/soybean and conventional corn/soybean/wheat crop rotations, respectively. Average net return estimates are sensitive to price, yield, and cost assumptions. Organic crop prices would have to drop more than 17.8 percent and organic crop yields would have to drop more than 16.8 percent before the conventional corn/soybean crop rotation was more profitable than the organic corn/soybean/wheat crop rotation. These percentage changes are relatively small compared to the historical relationships between organic and conventional crop prices and yields. A risk model was used to examine the trade-off between expected net returns and downside risk. Converting even a small proportion of acreage to an organic corn/soybean/wheat crop rotation improves net returns and reduces downside risk compared to only utilizing conventional crop rotations.

scholarly journals Future Prospects for Private Timber Harvest in Eastern Oregon

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darius M. Adams ◽  
Gregory S. Latta
Keyword(s):  
Public Lands ◽  
Timber Harvest ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Forest Industry ◽  
Private Land ◽  
Riparian Protection ◽  
Private Forestland ◽  
Historical Levels ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract Projections of eastern Oregon private sawtimber harvest are developed using a market model linked to a subplot level projection of growth and inventory. The “base” projection envisions nearly a 50% drop in forest industry harvest relative to recent historical levels, while nonindustrial private forestland harvest remains roughly stable. In this scenario the region would lose nearly one-third of its remaining lumber mills and processing capacity within the first 30 years of the projection. Log prices would show little long-term trend. Simulations of two hypothetical public policies show the impacts of changes in public harvest and the private land base. In a case of expanded riparian protection, which reduces the harvestable private land base by about 11%, private harvest falls by roughly 18% between 2003 and 2033. Large harvest reductions are projected on industrial lands because of limited merchantable inventories. A restoration thinning program on public lands that raises public harvest by 40 million board feet per year over 20 years, sustains recent mill numbers for the next 25 years (although total harvest continues to decline). Substitution of public harvest for private harvest would enable continuation of a higher private cut for several years after the thinning program has ended.

Timber Harvesting by Nonindustrial Private Forest Landowners in Western Oregon

1995 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 66-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Cleaves ◽  
Max Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Timber Harvesting ◽  
Private Forest ◽  
Partial Cutting ◽  
Commercial Thinning ◽  
Natural Tendency ◽  
Nipf Owners ◽  
Nonindustrial Private Forest ◽  
Farm Ownership ◽  
Acquisition Method ◽  
Nipf Landowners

Abstract A survey of nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) landowners in Western Oregon was analyzed to gain insights about their harvesting activity. Past participation in harvesting, harvest type, and future intentions for harvest were related to ownership size, tenure, residence, form of organization, method of acquisition, occupation, age, and income. Thirty percent of the respondents reported harvesting at least once during the 1979-1989 period. Higher rates of harvest participation were found for larger ownership sizes, longer tenure, corporate organization, farm ownership, and higher personal income. At least some of the influence of size on reported participation came from the natural tendency of larger ownerships to have a greater variety of acres eligible for harvest. Ownership size combined with a variety of demographic factors--tenure, residence, form of organization, acquisition method, occupation, and income--influenced whether the harvest was a clearcut or a commercial thinning. Commercial thinning and thinning/clearcutting combination harvests were more common than clearcutting. Landowners were generally willing to harvest in the future; more than two-thirds of the NIPF acreage is controlled by owners with definite harvest plans. Owners who reported no intentions to harvest had little past harvesting activity. The predominance of thinning and other forms of partial cutting by smaller NIPF owners may indicate opportunities to improve the condition of NIPFs through assistance in selective cutting. West. J. Appl. For. 10(2):66-71.

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