scholarly journals Real-time characterization of the molecular epidemiology of an influenza pandemic

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 20130331 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Hedge ◽  
S. J. Lycett ◽  
A. Rambaut

Early characterization of the epidemiology and evolution of a pandemic is essential for determining the most appropriate interventions. During the 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic, public databases facilitated widespread sharing of genetic sequence data from the outset. We use Bayesian phylogenetics to simulate real-time estimates of the evolutionary rate, date of emergence and intrinsic growth rate ( r 0 ) of the pandemic from whole-genome sequences. We investigate the effects of temporal range of sampling and dataset size on the precision and accuracy of parameter estimation. Parameters can be accurately estimated as early as two months after the first reported case, from 100 genomes and the choice of growth model is important for accurate estimation of r 0 . This demonstrates the utility of simple coalescent models to rapidly inform intervention strategies during a pandemic.

eLife ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Mena ◽  
Martha I Nelson ◽  
Francisco Quezada-Monroy ◽  
Jayeeta Dutta ◽  
Refugio Cortes-Fernández ◽  
...  

Asia is considered an important source of influenza A virus (IAV) pandemics, owing to large, diverse viral reservoirs in poultry and swine. However, the zoonotic origins of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic virus (pdmH1N1) remain unclear, due to conflicting evidence from swine and humans. There is strong evidence that the first human outbreak of pdmH1N1 occurred in Mexico in early 2009. However, no related swine viruses have been detected in Mexico or any part of the Americas, and to date the most closely related ancestor viruses were identified in Asian swine. Here, we use 58 new whole-genome sequences from IAVs collected in Mexican swine to establish that the swine virus responsible for the 2009 pandemic evolved in central Mexico. This finding highlights how the 2009 pandemic arose from a region not considered a pandemic risk, owing to an expansion of IAV diversity in swine resulting from long-distance live swine trade.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Reimering ◽  
Sebastian Muñoz ◽  
Alice C. McHardy

AbstractInfluenza A viruses cause seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics in the human population. While the worldwide circulation of seasonal influenza is at least partly understood, the exact migration patterns between countries, states or cities are not well studied. Here, we use the Sankoff algorithm for parsimonious phylogeographic reconstruction together with effective distances based on a worldwide air transportation network. By first simulating geographic spread and then phylogenetic trees and genetic sequences, we confirmed that reconstructions with effective distances inferred phylogeographic spread more accurately than reconstructions with geographic distances and Bayesian reconstructions with BEAST, the current state-of-the-art. Our method extends the state-of-the-art by using fine-grained locations like airports and inferring intermediate locations not observed among sampled isolates. When applied to sequence data of the pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus in 2009, our approach correctly inferred the origin and proposed airports mainly involved in the spread of the virus. In case of a novel outbreak, this approach allows to rapidly analyze sequence data and infer origin and spread routes to improve disease surveillance and control.Author summaryInfluenza A viruses infect up to 5 million people in recurring epidemics every year. Further, viruses of zoonotic origin constantly pose a pandemic risk. Understanding the geographical spread of these viruses, including the origin and the main spread routes between cities, states or countries, could help to monitor or contain novel outbreaks. Based on genetic sequences and sampling locations, the geographic spread can be reconstructed along a phylogenetic tree. Our approach uses a parsimonious reconstruction with air transportation data and was verified using a simulation of the 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic. Applied to real sequence data of the outbreak, our analysis gave detailed insights into spread patterns of influenza A viruses, highlighting the origin as well as airports mainly involved in the spread.


2011 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 982-990 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Xu ◽  
R. McBride ◽  
C. M. Nycholat ◽  
J. C. Paulson ◽  
I. A. Wilson

mBio ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brett W. Jagger ◽  
Matthew J. Memoli ◽  
Zong-Mei Sheng ◽  
Li Qi ◽  
Rachel J. Hrabal ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTThe swine-origin H1N1 influenza A virus emerged in early 2009 and caused the first influenza pandemic in 41 years. The virus has spread efficiently to both the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres and has been associated with over 16,000 deaths. Given the virus’s recent zoonotic origin, there is concern that the virus could acquire signature mutations associated with the enhanced pathogenicity of previous pandemic viruses or H5N1 viruses with pandemic potential. We tested the hypothesis that mutations in the polymerase PB2 gene at residues 627 and 701 would enhance virulence but found that influenza viruses containing these mutations in the context of the pandemic virus polymerase complex are attenuated in cell culture and mice.IMPORTANCEInfluenza A virus (IAV) evolution is characterized by host-specific lineages, and IAVs derived in whole or in part from animal reservoirs have caused pandemics in humans. Because IAVs are known to acquire host-adaptive genome mutations, and since the PB2 gene of the 2009 H1N1 virus is of recent avian derivation, there exists concern that the pathogenicity of the 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic virus could be potentiated by acquisition of the host-adaptive PB2-E627K or -D701N mutations, which have been shown to enhance the virulence of other influenza viruses. We present data from a mouse model of influenza infection showing that such mutations do not increase the virulence of viruses containing the 2009 H1N1 viral polymerase.


2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shikha Garg ◽  
Sonja J. Olsen ◽  
Stefan Fernandez ◽  
Charung Muangchana ◽  
Kamonthip Rungrojcharoenkit ◽  
...  

Abstract Among 368 Thai men who have sex with men with paired serum samples collected before and during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, we determined influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 seroconversion rates (≥4-fold rise in antibody titers by hemagglutination inhibition or microneutralization assays). Overall, 66 of 232 (28%) participants seroconverted after the first year of A(H1N1)pdm09 activity, and 83 of 234 (35%) participants seroconverted after the second year. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 seroconversion did not differ between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected (55 of 2157 [35%]) and HIV-uninfected (71 of 2211 [34%]) participants (P = .78). Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 seroconversion occurred in approximately one third of our Thai study population and was similar among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected participants.


2010 ◽  
Vol 134 (11) ◽  
pp. 1671-1678
Author(s):  
Randall T. Hayden ◽  
Megan T. Wick ◽  
Alicia B. Rodriguez ◽  
Angela M. Caliendo ◽  
Michael J. Mitchell ◽  
...  

Abstract Context.—The recent outbreak of pandemic influenza created enormous economic, logistical, and analytical challenges for clinical laboratories. Laboratory response represented a critical element in the care of affected patients, but little has been published regarding this aspect of the pandemic. Objective.—To assess the overall response of clinical diagnostic laboratories across the United States to the initial phase of the 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic. Design.—A 24-question survey was developed and distributed by e-mail to determine current influenza testing practices and how those practices were changed in response to the outbreak of 2009 H1N1 influenza. The survey was distributed to participants in the College of American Pathologists proficiency testing programs related to viral diagnostics. Survey questions focused on laboratory safety, communication of results, testing volume and resources, and whether changes in resource allocation or laboratory practice were anticipated in preparation for the 2009–2010 influenza season. Results.—A total of 24.3% (931) of laboratories responded to the survey. Overall, few laboratories reported changes in methodology in response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak, although, notably, the number of centers using molecular amplification methods more than doubled, from 41 to 91. Turn-around time for result reporting and safety methods used were largely as expected for individual testing modalities. Shortages in staffing, testing supplies, and personal protective equipment were reported, but most sites were able to maintain operations and did not feel that patient care was negatively affected. Conclusion.—This report provides a comprehensive picture of clinical laboratory responses in the early stages of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. These data should assist in the continued laboratory management of this outbreak and in planning for future emerging infections.


2010 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 575-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Korteweg ◽  
Jiang Gu

The 2009 H1N1 and H5N1 influenza viruses are newly (re-) emerged influenza A viruses (2009 A(H1N1) and A(H5N1), respectively) that have recently posed tremendous health threats in many regions worldwide. With the 2009 outbreak of H1N1 influenza A, the world witnessed the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The disease has rapidly spread across the entire globe, and has resulted in hundreds of thousands of cases with confirmed infection. Although characterized by high transmissibility, the virulence and fatality of the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza virus have thus far remained relatively low. The reverse holds true for A(H5N1) influenza; at a fatality rate that exceeds 60%, it is known to cause severe damage to the human respiratory system, but is not presently capable of efficient transmission from human to human. Apart from the clear differences between the two types of influenza, there are some significant similarities that warrant attention. In particular, the more severe and fatal 2009 A(H1N1) influenza cases have shown symptoms similar to those reported in cases of A(H5N1) influenza. Histopathological findings for these cases, to the extent available, also appear to have similarities for both diseases in terms of damage and severity. Here we review important recent publications in this area, and we discuss some of the key commonalities and contrasts between the two influenza A types in terms of their biology, origins, clinical features, pathology and pathogenesis, and receptors and transmissibility.


2010 ◽  
Vol 167 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weston C. Hymas ◽  
Alan Mills ◽  
Sheri Ferguson ◽  
Janine Langer ◽  
Rosemary C. She ◽  
...  

2012 ◽  
Vol 141 (5) ◽  
pp. 1070-1079 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. B. HONG ◽  
E. Y. CHOI ◽  
S. H. KIM ◽  
G. Y. SUH ◽  
M. S. PARK ◽  
...  

SUMMARYA total of 245 patients with confirmed 2009 H1N1 influenza were admitted to the intensive-care units of 28 hospitals (South Korea). Their mean age was 55·3 years with 68·6% aged >50 years, and 54·7% male. Nine were obese and three were pregnant. One or more comorbidities were present in 83·7%, and nosocomial acquisition occurred in 14·3%. In total, 107 (43·7%) patients received corticosteroids and 66·1% required mechanical ventilation. Eighty (32·7%) patients died within 30 days after onset of symptoms and 99 (40·4%) within 90 days. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the clinician's decision to prescribe corticosteroids, older age, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and nosocomial bacterial pneumonia were independent risk factors for 90-day mortality. In contrast with Western countries, critical illness in Korea in relation to 2009 H1N1 was most common in older patients with chronic comorbidities; nosocomial acquisition occurred occasionally but disease in obese or pregnant patients was uncommon.


2011 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 1582-1585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mookkan Prabakaran ◽  
Tao Meng ◽  
Fang He ◽  
Tan YunRui ◽  
Jia Qiang ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTThe protective immunity of baculovirus displaying influenza virus hemagglutinin (BacHA) against influenza 2009 H1N1 virus infection in a murine model was investigated. The results showed that mice vaccinated with live BacHA or an inactive form of adjuvanted BacHA had enhanced specific antibody responses and induced protective immunity against 2009 H1N1 virus infection, suggesting the potential of baculovirus as a live or inactivated vaccine.


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