scholarly journals Real time forecasting of near-future evolution

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (74) ◽  
pp. 2268-2278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Gerrish ◽  
Paul D. Sniegowski

A metaphor for adaptation that informs much evolutionary thinking today is that of mountain climbing, where horizontal displacement represents change in genotype, and vertical displacement represents change in fitness. If it were known a priori what the ‘fitness landscape’ looked like, that is, how the myriad possible genotypes mapped onto fitness, then the possible paths up the fitness mountain could each be assigned a probability, thus providing a dynamical theory with long-term predictive power. Such detailed genotype–fitness data, however, are rarely available and are subject to change with each change in the organism or in the environment. Here, we take a very different approach that depends only on fitness or phenotype–fitness data obtained in real time and requires no a priori information about the fitness landscape. Our general statistical model of adaptive evolution builds on classical theory and gives reasonable predictions of fitness and phenotype evolution many generations into the future.

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruichun Liu ◽  
Chengsheng Yang ◽  
Qingliang Wang ◽  
Lingyun Ji

AbstractThe Datong region of China suffers from severe ground fissure (GF) disasters. The Jichechang ground fissure (JGF) is typical among the GFs in Datong and is the most active. To provide scientific guidance for disaster mitigation, understanding the mechanisms governing GF activity in Datong needs to be improved. Here, long-term monitoring data (> 10 years) for the JGF are used to study the characteristics of its activity. The results show that the formation of GFs is mainly controlled by concealed faults. The JGF is mainly active in the vertical direction, with a differential vertical displacement 2.5 times greater than the horizontal displacement. The GF activity is periodic, with a periodicity of 320–420 days, which corresponds to the cycle of local agricultural irrigation. The JGF is especially active in June and July. The vertical activity of this fissure also displays a distinct quasi-periodic step-like displacement acceleration with a duration of 18–38 days. Numerical simulations show that irrigation pumping within 10 km of the JGF has a significant effect on the vertical movement of GFs. These results provide a better understanding of the mechanisms governing GF activity in this area and provide a valuable reference for the study of GFs in other regions.


Author(s):  
Paulo Trigo

The key motivation for this chapter is the perception that within the near future, markets will be composed of individuals that may simultaneously undertake the roles of consumers, producers and traders. Those individuals are economically motivated “prosumer” (producer-consumer) agents that not only consume, but can also produce, store and trade assets. This chapter describes the most relevant aspects of a simulation tool that provides (human and virtual) prosumer agents an interactive and real-time game-like environment where they can explore (long-term and short-term) strategic behaviour and experience the effects of social influence in their decision-making processes. The game-like environment is focused on the simulation of electricity markets, it is named ITEM-game (“Investment and Trading in Electricity Markets”), and it is publically available (ITEM-Game, 2013) for any player to explore the role of a prosumer agent.


2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 424-427
Author(s):  
Hong Wei Gao ◽  
Yong Yao ◽  
Yun Peng Chu ◽  
Dai Guo Chen

By calculating a large span roof structures, get the intrinsic mode and real-time response of the structural under earthquake. The results showed that, the vertical acceleration response of structure is smaller than the horizontal acceleration response under EL-Centro wave and Tangshan wave. The vertical acceleration response is greater than the horizontal acceleration response under Lanzhou wave. The vertical displacement response of structure is greater than the horizontal displacement response under earthquake. Roof Destructed before the steel skeleton damage.


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Murat Yucesahin ◽  
Ibrahim Sirkeci

Syrian crisis resulted in at least 6.1 million externally displaced people 983,876 of whom are in Europe while the rest are in neighbouring countries in the region. Turkey, due to its geographical proximity and substantial land borders with the country, has been the most popular destination for those fleeing Syria since April 2011. Especially after 2012, a sharp increase in the number of Syrian refugees arriving in Turkey was witnessed. This has triggered an exponential growth in academic and public interest in Syrian population. Numerous reports mostly based on non-representative sample surveys have been disseminated whilst authoritative robust analyses remained absent. This study aims to fill this gap by offering a comprehensive demographic analysis of the Syrian population. We focus on the demographic differences (from 1950s to 2015) and demographic trends (from 2015 to 2100) in medium to long term, based on data from World Population Prospects (WPP). We offer a comparative picture to underline potential changes and convergences between populations in Syria, Turkey, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We frame our discussion here with reference to the demographic transition theory to help understanding the implications for movers and non-movers in receiving countries in the near future.


1969 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-169
Author(s):  
Andrés Dapuez

Latin American cash transfer programs have been implemented aiming at particular anticipatory scenarios. Given that the fulfillment of cash transfer objectives can be calculated neither empirically nor rationally a priori, I analyse these programs in this article using the concept of an “imaginary future.” I posit that cash transfer implementers in Latin America have entertained three main fictional expectations: social pacification in the short term, market inclusion in the long term, and the construction of a more distributive society in the very long term. I classify and date these developing expectations into three waves of conditional cash transfers implementation.


2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S439-S439
Author(s):  
Eric Ellorin ◽  
Jill Blumenthal ◽  
Sonia Jain ◽  
Xiaoying Sun ◽  
Katya Corado ◽  
...  

Abstract Background “PrEP whore” has been used both as a pejorative by PrEP opponents in the gay community and, reactively, by PrEP advocates as a method to reclaim the label from stigmatization and “slut-shaming.” The actual prevalence and impact of such PrEP-directed stigma on adherence have been insufficiently studied. Methods CCTG 595 was a randomized controlled PrEP demonstration project in 398 HIV-uninfected MSM and transwomen. Intracellular tenofovir-diphosphate (TFV-DP) levels at weeks 12 and 48 were used as a continuous measure of adherence. At study visits, participants were asked to describe how they perceived others’ reactions to them being on PrEP. These perceptions were categorized a priori as either “positively framed,” “negatively framed,” or both. We used Wilcoxon rank-sum to determine the association between positive and negative framing and TFV-DP levels at weeks 12 and 48. Results By week 4, 29% of participants reported perceiving positive reactions from members of their social groups, 5% negative, and 6% both. Reporting decreased over 48 weeks, but positive reactions were consistently reported more than negative. At week 12, no differences in mean TFV-DP levels were observed in participants with positively-framed reactions compared with those reporting no outcome or only negatively-framed (1338 [IQR, 1036-1609] vs. 1281 [946-1489] fmol/punch, P = 0.17). Additionally, no differences were observed in those with negative reactions vs. those without (1209 [977–1427] vs. 1303 [964–1545], P = 0.58). At week 48, mean TFV-DP levels trended toward being higher among those that report any reaction, regardless if positive (1335 [909–1665] vs. 1179 [841–1455], P = 0.09) or negative (1377 [1054–1603] vs. 1192 [838–1486], P = 0.10) than those reporting no reaction. At week 48, 46% of participants reported experiencing some form of PrEP-directed judgment, 23% reported being called “PrEP whore,” and 21% avoiding disclosing PrEP use. Conclusion Over 48 weeks, nearly half of participants reported some form of judgment or stigmatization as a consequence of PrEP use. However, individuals more frequently perceived positively framed reactions to being on PrEP than negative. Importantly, long-term PrEP adherence does not appear to suffer as a result of negative PrEP framing. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 4597
Author(s):  
Zi-Xuan Yu ◽  
Meng-Shi Li ◽  
Yi-Peng Xu ◽  
Sheraz Aslam ◽  
Yuan-Kang Li

The optimal planning of grid-connected microgrids (MGs) has been extensively studied in recent years. While most of the previous studies have used fixed or time-of-use (TOU) prices for the optimal sizing of MGs, this work introduces real-time pricing (RTP) for implementing a demand response (DR) program according to the national grid prices of Iran. In addition to the long-term planning of MG, the day-ahead operation of MG is also analyzed to get a better understanding of the DR program for daily electricity dispatch. For this purpose, four different days corresponding to the four seasons are selected for further analysis. In addition, various impacts of the proposed DR program on the MG planning results, including sizing and best configuration, net present cost (NPC) and cost of energy (COE), and emission generation by the utility grid, are investigated. The optimization results show that the implementation of the DR program has a positive impact on the technical, economic, and environmental aspects of MG. The NPC and COE are reduced by about USD 3700 and USD 0.0025/kWh, respectively. The component size is also reduced, resulting in a reduction in the initial cost. Carbon emissions are also reduced by 185 kg/year.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masaki Nio ◽  
Motoshi Wada ◽  
Hideyuki Sasaki ◽  
Hiromu Tanaka ◽  
Masatoshi Hashimoto ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Although cancer occurrence following surgery for biliary atresia has gradually increased, the development of cholangiocarcinoma in a native liver survivor of biliary atresia is extremely rare. Case presentation A 3-month-old female patient with the correctable type of biliary atresia underwent a cystoduodenostomy. At 16 years of age, she underwent multiple surgeries including lysis of intestinal adhesions, ileostomy, and gastrojejunostomy at another hospital. At 54 years of age, she underwent lithotomy at the porta hepatis, resection of the residual cystic bile duct with gallbladder, and hepaticojejunostomy in Roux-en-Y fashion. As she approached the age of 63, her computed tomography scan showed no liver tumors. In the following year, she developed cholangiocarcinoma at the porta hepatis and underwent chemotherapy. However, the cancer progressed, and she died before she reached the age of 64 years. Conclusions Cholangiocarcinoma is extremely rare in patients with biliary atresia. However, physicians should follow up patients with biliary atresia as closely as possible, as malignant tumors secondary to biliary atresia may increase in number in the near future because of the growing number of long-term survivors with biliary atresia.


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