scholarly journals Correction to ‘Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics'

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1963) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard B. Sherley ◽  
Barbara J. Barham ◽  
Peter J. Barham ◽  
Kate J. Campbell ◽  
Robert J. M. Crawford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Marine Predator

scholarly journals Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics

2018 ◽  
Vol 285 (1871) ◽  
pp. 20172443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard B. Sherley ◽  
Barbara J. Barham ◽  
Peter J. Barham ◽  
Kate J. Campbell ◽  
Robert J. M. Crawford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Prey Availability ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Forage Fish ◽  
Chick Survival ◽  
Marine Predator ◽  
Management Interventions

Global forage-fish landings are increasing, with potentially grave consequences for marine ecosystems. Predators of forage fish may be influenced by this harvest, but the nature of these effects is contentious. Experimental fishery manipulations offer the best solution to quantify population-level impacts, but are rare. We used Bayesian inference to examine changes in chick survival, body condition and population growth rate of endangered African penguins Spheniscus demersus in response to 8 years of alternating time–area closures around two pairs of colonies. Our results demonstrate that fishing closures improved chick survival and condition, after controlling for changing prey availability. However, this effect was inconsistent across sites and years, highlighting the difficultly of assessing management interventions in marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, modelled increases in population growth rates exceeded 1% at one colony; i.e. the threshold considered biologically meaningful by fisheries management in South Africa. Fishing closures evidently can improve the population trend of a forage-fish-dependent predator—we therefore recommend they continue in South Africa and support their application elsewhere. However, detecting demographic gains for mobile marine predators from small no-take zones requires experimental time frames and scales that will often exceed those desired by decision makers.

Fundamentals of Nonparametric Bayesian Inference

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subhashis Ghosal ◽  
Aad van der Vaart
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Nonparametric Bayesian

Spatiotemporal distribution of foraging in a marine predator: behavioural drivers of hotspot formation

2020 ◽  
Vol 635 ◽  
pp. 187-202
Author(s):  
T Brough ◽  
W Rayment ◽  
E Slooten ◽  
S Dawson
Keyword(s):  
Time Of Day ◽  
Spatiotemporal Distribution ◽  
Temporal Effects ◽  
Marine Predator ◽  
Marine Predators ◽  
Additive Mixed Models ◽  
Density Analysis ◽  
The Times ◽  
Passive Acoustic ◽  
Spatial Locations

Many species of marine predators display defined hotspots in their distribution, although the reasons why this happens are not well understood in some species. Understanding whether hotspots are used for certain behaviours provides insights into the importance of these areas for the predators’ ecology and population viability. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of foraging behaviour in Hector’s dolphin Cephalorhynchus hectori, a small, endangered species from New Zealand. Passive acoustic monitoring of foraging ‘buzzes’ was carried out at 4 hotspots and 6 lower-use, ‘reference areas’, chosen randomly based on a previous density analysis of visual sightings. The distribution of buzzes was modelled among spatial locations and on 3 temporal scales (season, time of day, tidal state) with generalised additive mixed models using 82000 h of monitoring data. Foraging rates were significantly influenced by all 3 temporal effects, with substantial variation in the importance and nature of each effect among locations. The complexity of the temporal effects on foraging is likely due to the patchy nature of prey distributions and shows how foraging is highly variable at fine scales. Foraging rates were highest at the hotspots, suggesting that feeding opportunities shape fine-scale distribution in Hector’s dolphin. Foraging can be disrupted by anthropogenic influences. Thus, information from this study can be used to manage threats to this vital behaviour in the locations and at the times where it is most prevalent.

High predatory efficiency and abundance drive expected ecological impacts of a marine invasive fish

2020 ◽  
Vol 637 ◽  
pp. 195-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
EM DeRoy ◽  
R Scott ◽  
NE Hussey ◽  
HJ MacIsaac
Keyword(s):  
Invasive Species ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Ecological Impact ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Marine Predator ◽  
Eastern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Red Grouper ◽  
Per Capita

The ecological impacts of invasive species are highly variable and mediated by many factors, including both habitat and population abundance. Lionfish Pterois volitans are an invasive marine species which have high reported detrimental effects on prey populations, but whose effects relative to native predators are currently unknown for the recently colonized eastern Gulf of Mexico. We used functional response (FR) methodology to assess the ecological impact of lionfish relative to 2 functionally similar native species (red grouper Epinephelus morio and graysby grouper Cephalopholis cruentata) foraging in a heterogeneous environment. We then combined the per capita impact of each species with their field abundance to obtain a Relative Impact Potential (RIP). RIP assesses the broader ecological impact of invasive relative to native predators, the magnitude of which predicts community-level negative effects of invasive species. Lionfish FR and overall consumption rate was intermediate to that of red grouper (higher) and graysby grouper (lower). However, lionfish had the highest capture efficiency of all species, which was invariant of habitat. Much higher field abundance of lionfish resulted in high RIPs relative to both grouper species, demonstrating that the ecological impact of lionfish in this region will be driven mainly by high abundance and high predator efficiency rather than per capita effect. Our comparative study is the first empirical assessment of lionfish per capita impact and RIP in this region and is one of few such studies to quantify the FR of a marine predator.

Unifying Bayesian Inference and Vector Space Models for Improved Decipherment

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Dou ◽  
Ashish Vaswani ◽  
Kevin Knight ◽  
Chris Dyer
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Vector Space ◽  
Vector Space Models

How do academics assess the results of multiple experiments?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olmo Van den Akker ◽  
Linda Dominguez Alvarez ◽  
Marjan Bakker ◽  
Jelte M. Wicherts ◽  
Marcel A. L. M. van Assen
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Individual Participant Data ◽  
Additional Experiment ◽  
Underlying Theory ◽  
Individual Participant ◽  
Vote Counting

We studied how academics assess the results of a set of four experiments that all test a given theory. We found that participants’ belief in the theory increases with the number of significant results, and that direct replications were considered to be more important than conceptual replications. We found no difference between authors and reviewers in their propensity to submit or recommend to publish sets of results, but we did find that authors are generally more likely to desire an additional experiment. In a preregistered secondary analysis of individual participant data, we examined the heuristics academics use to assess the results of four experiments. Only 6 out of 312 (1.9%) participants we analyzed used the normative method of Bayesian inference, whereas the majority of participants used vote counting approaches that tend to undervalue the evidence for the underlying theory if two or more results are statistically significant.

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