scholarly journals Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa

2005 ◽  
Vol 360 (1463) ◽  
pp. 2183-2194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sukaina Bharwani ◽  
Mike Bithell ◽  
Thomas E Downing ◽  
Mark New ◽  
Richard Washington ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Seasonal Climate

Seasonal climate outlooks provide one tool to help decision-makers allocate resources in anticipation of poor, fair or good seasons. The aim of the ‘Climate Outlooks and Agent-Based Simulation of Adaptation in South Africa’ project has been to investigate whether individuals, who adapt gradually to annual climate variability, are better equipped to respond to longer-term climate variability and change in a sustainable manner. Seasonal climate outlooks provide information on expected annual rainfall and thus can be used to adjust seasonal agricultural strategies to respond to expected climate conditions. A case study of smallholder farmers in a village in Vhembe district, Limpopo Province, South Africa has been used to examine how such climate outlooks might influence agricultural strategies and how this climate information can be improved to be more useful to farmers. Empirical field data has been collected using surveys, participatory approaches and computer-based knowledge elicitation tools to investigate the drivers of decision-making with a focus on the role of climate, market and livelihood needs. This data is used in an agent-based social simulation which incorporates household agents with varying adaptation options which result in differing impacts on crop yields and thus food security, as a result of using or ignoring the seasonal outlook. Key variables are the skill of the forecast, the social communication of the forecast and the range of available household and community-based risk coping strategies. This research provides a novel approach for exploring adaptation within the context of climate change.

scholarly journals Impacts of Rainfall and Temperature Changes on Smallholder Agriculture in the Limpopo Province, South Africa

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 2872
Author(s):  
Sydney Shikwambana ◽  
Ntokozo Malaza ◽  
Karabo Shale
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Moisture Index

The intensity and frequency in the recurrence of extreme climate events are compounding the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, who have always lacked the resources to adapt. The increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall are exacerbating water scarcity challenges through drought recurrence. There is an urgent need for pathways that lead towards Sustainable Development Goals, mainly Goals 1 (no poverty) and 2 (zero hunger) in poor rural communities. This study assessed rainfall and temperature trends from 1960 to 2018 and their impacts on crop production in the Mopani and Vhembe Districts of Limpopo Province, South Africa. Trend analysis was used to analyse rainfall patterns, as well as the trends in temperature recorded for the past 58 years. The climate moisture index (CMI) and runoff estimates were used to assess the degree of aridity and water availability, respectively. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remotely sensed data were used to assess the changes over time. The total annual rainfall has declined significantly while annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly during the period under observation. An aridity index of −0.70 calculated for the study areas classifies the districts as dry and water scarce. The results of the analysis also indicate that the districts are climate change hot spots, and are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The changes are compounding water and food insecurity. Policy and decision-makers should focus on enhancing adaptation and resilience initiatives in the study areas through systematic, transformative, and integrated approaches, such as scenario planning, circular economy, and nexus planning.

South Africa’s increasing climate variability and its effect on food production

2021 ◽  
pp. 003072702110049
Author(s):  
Mashudu Tshikovhi ◽  
Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Fixed Effects Panel Regression ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of increasing climate variability on food production in South Africa, focusing on maize and wheat yields. A two-way fixed effects panel regression model was used to assess the climate variability impacts, analysing secondary data for the period 2000 to 2019 for nine provinces in South Africa. The study found that increasing climate variability has a negative impact on maize and wheat production in South Africa. Specifically, the results indicated a negative correlation between mean annual temperature with both maize and wheat yields. A decrease in precipitation affected maize yields negatively, while the impact on wheat yields was positive, although insignificant. This analysis, therefore, depicted that crop yields generally increase with more annual precipitation and decrease with higher temperatures. The study recommends that funding initiatives to educate farmers on increasing climate variability and its effects on farming activities in South Africa should be prioritised.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal patterns and movement analysis of pigs from smallholder farms and implications for African swine fever spread, Limpopo province, South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 82 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Folorunso O. Fasina ◽  
Japhta M. Mokoele ◽  
B. Tom Spencer ◽  
Leo A.M.L. Van Leengoed ◽  
Yvette Bevis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Network Analyses ◽  
Critical Control Points ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Disease Dispersal

Infectious and zoonotic disease outbreaks have been linked to increasing volumes of legal and illegal trade. Spatio-temporal and trade network analyses have been used to evaluate the risks associated with these challenges elsewhere, but few details are available for the pig sector in South Africa. Regarding pig diseases, Limpopo province is important as the greater part of the province falls within the African swine fever control area. Emerging small-scale pig farmers in Limpopo perceived pig production as an important means of improving their livelihood and an alternative investment. They engage in trading and marketing their products with a potential risk to animal health, because the preferred markets often facilitate potential longdistance spread and disease dispersal over broad geographic areas. In this study, we explored the interconnectedness of smallholder pig farmers in Limpopo, determined the weaknesses and critical control points, and projected interventions that policy makers can implement to reduce the risks to pig health. The geo-coordinates of surveyed farms were used to draw maps, links and networks. Predictive risks to pigs were determined through the analyses of trade networks, and the relationship to previous outbreaks of African swine fever was postulated. Auction points were identified as high-risk areas for the spread of animal diseases. Veterinary authorities should prioritise focused surveillance and diagnostic efforts in Limpopo. Early disease detection and prompt eradication should be targeted and messages promoting enhanced biosecurity to smallholder farmers are advocated. The system may also benefit from the restructuring of marketing and auction networks. Since geographic factors and networks can rapidly facilitate pig disease dispersal over large areas, a multi-disciplinary approach to understanding the complexities that exist around the animal disease epidemiology becomes mandatory.

scholarly journals Perceptions of Climate Change and Drivers of Insect Pest Outbreaks in Vegetable Crops in Limpopo Province of South Africa

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mutondwa Masindi Phophi ◽  
Paramu Mafongoya ◽  
Shenelle Lottering
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Bivariate Analysis ◽  
Vegetable Production ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Pest Outbreaks

Vegetable production is a source of income for smallholder farmers in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Vegetable production is constrained by the negative impacts of climate change and pests. This study assessed farmers’ awareness of climate change, farmers’ knowledge of insect pests and factors that influence insect pests’ prevalence. The data were collected using quantitative and qualitative methods. The data were subjected to descriptive and bivariate analysis. About 84.5% of smallholder farmers were aware of climate change. Late rainfall (24.4%), long dry spells (15%) and increased drought frequency (19.4%) were highlighted as dominant indicators of climate change by farmers. Aphids (22.2%), Bagrada hilaris (12.5%) and Spodoptera frugiperda (10.2%) were the most prevalent insect pests within the Vhembe District. Warmer winters, dry spells and high temperatures were perceived by farmers to influence insect pests’ prevalence within the district. It can be concluded that farmers are aware of climate change and climatic factors influencing pest prevalence within the district. Pest risk maps are needed to improve the preparedness of the government and farmers in controlling insect pests under changing climates.

scholarly journals Are smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate variability supported by climatological evidence? Case study of a semi-arid region in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 571-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maropene Tebello Rapholo ◽  
Lawrence Diko Makia
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Arid Region ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Semi Arid Region ◽  
Semi Arid

Purpose Literature contends that not much is known about smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and the impacts thereof on agricultural practices in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Africa in particular. The purpose of this study is to examine the perceptions of smallholder farmers from Botlokwa (a semi-arid region in South Africa) on climate variability in relation to climatological evidence. Design/methodology/approach The study area is in proximity to a meteorological station and comprises mainly rural farmers, involved in rain-fed subsistence agriculture. Focus group discussions and closed-ended questionnaires covering demographics and perceptions were administered to 125 purposely sampled farmers. To assess farmers’ perceptions of climate variability, their responses were compared with linear trend and variability of historical temperature and rainfall data (1985-2015). Descriptive statistics were used to provide insights into respondents’ perceptions. Findings About 64% of the farmers perceived climate variability that was consistent with the meteorological data, whereas 36% either held contrary observations or were unable to discern. Age, level of education, farming experience and accessibility to information influenced the likelihood of farmers to correctly perceive climate variability. No significant differences in perception based on gender were observed. This study concludes that coping and adaption strategies of over one-third of the farmers could be negatively impacted by wrong perceptions of climate variability. Originality/value This study highlights discrepancies in perceptions among farmers with similar demographic characteristics. To guarantee sustainability of the sector, intervention by government and other key stakeholders to address underlying factors responsible for observed discrepancies is recommended.

the Sustainable Harvesting of Edible Insects in South Africa, with Reference to Indigenous Knowledge, African Science, Western Science and Education

2007 ◽  
Vol 36 (S1) ◽  
pp. 145-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rob Toms
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Indigenous Knowledge ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Knowledge Systems ◽  
Food Plants ◽  
Western Science ◽  
Edible Insects ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Sustainable Harvesting

AbstractIn our ongoing research on edible insects in the Limpopo Province of South Africa, we have found evidence of the unsustainable harvesting of edible insects and the food plants of certain insects. The decline in the edible insect industry, together with the need for food security provides a strong incentive to investigate possible causes of problems using different knowledge systems. Any solution to these problems needs to take Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) into account if it hopes to be successful and sustainable. We have found that different communities have different explanations for the same phenomena. Some of these explanations correspond with the explanations for the same phenomena in Western science. Where areas of overlap between IKS and Western science exist, these can be used in education in such a way that recommendations for sustainable harvesting can be developed with reference to African science. In this process, the area of overlap between the systems may grow as information from one system is incorporated in another. In this contribution the overlapping roles of IKS, African science and Western science are explored in the teaching of the sustainable harvesting of Indigenous resources for food security and conservation. This creates opportunities to teach relevant science in such a way that the concerned communities can benefit through better food security and the conservation of culturally important plants and animals.

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