scholarly journals Maximum intrinsic rate of population increase in sharks, rays, and chimaeras: the importance of survival to maturity

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián A. Pardo ◽  
Holly K. Kindsvater ◽  
John D. Reynolds ◽  
Nicholas K. Dulvy
Keyword(s):  
Reproductive Output ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Intrinsic Rate ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Age At Maturity ◽  
Demographic Parameter ◽  
Average Lifespan

AbstractThe maximum intrinsic rate of population increase rmax is a commonly estimated demographic parameter used in assessments of extinction risk. In teleosts, rmax can be calculated using an estimate of spawners per spawner, but for chondrichthyans, most studies have used annual reproductive output b instead. This is problematic as it effectively assumes all juveniles survive to maturity. Here, we propose an updated rmax equation that uses a simple mortality estimator which also accounts for survival to maturity: the reciprocal of average lifespan. For 94 chondrichthyans, we now estimate that rmax values are on average 10% lower than previously published. Our updated rmax estimates are lower than previously published for species that mature later relative to maximum age and those with high annual fecundity. The most extreme discrepancies in rmax values occur in species with low age at maturity and low annual reproductive output. Our results indicate that chondrichthyans that mature relatively later in life, and to a lesser extent those that are highly fecund, are less resilient to fishing than previously thought.

scholarly journals Maximum intrinsic rate of population increase in sharks, rays, and chimaeras: the importance of survival to maturity

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (8) ◽  
pp. 1159-1163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián A. Pardo ◽  
Holly K. Kindsvater ◽  
John D. Reynolds ◽  
Nicholas K. Dulvy
Keyword(s):  
Life Span ◽  
Reproductive Output ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Intrinsic Rate ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Age At Maturity ◽  
Average Life ◽  
Demographic Parameter ◽  
Average Life Span

The maximum intrinsic rate of population increase (rmax) is a commonly estimated demographic parameter used in assessments of extinction risk. In teleosts, rmax can be calculated using an estimate of spawners per spawner, but for chondrichthyans, most studies have used annual reproductive output (b) instead. This is problematic as it effectively assumes all juveniles survive to maturity. Here, we propose an updated rmax equation that uses a simple mortality estimator that also accounts for survival to maturity: the reciprocal of average life-span. For 94 chondrichthyans, we now estimate that rmax values are on average 10% lower than previously published. Our updated rmax estimates are lower than previously published for species that mature later relative to maximum age and those with high annual fecundity. The most extreme discrepancies in rmax values occur in species with low age at maturity and low annual reproductive output. Our results indicate that chondrichthyans that mature relatively later in life, and to a lesser extent those that are highly fecund, are less resilient to fishing than previously thought.

scholarly journals Diagnosing the dangerous demography of manta rays using life history theory

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas K Dulvy ◽  
Sebastián A. Pardo ◽  
Colin A. Simpfendorfer ◽  
John K. Carlson
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Life History Theory ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Somatic Growth ◽  
Intrinsic Rate ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Demographic Information ◽  
Age At Maturity ◽  
Manta Ray

The directed harvest and global trade in the gill plates of mantas, and other mobulid rays, has led to increased fishing pressure and steep population declines in some locations. The slow life history, particularly of the manta rays, is cited as a key reason why such species have little capacity to withstand directed fisheries. Here, we place their life history and demography in the context of other sharks and rays. Despite the limited availability of data, we use life history theory and comparative analysis to develop plausible ranges of somatic growth rate, annual pup production and age at maturity to estimate risk of extinction (maximum intrinsic rate of population increase rmax) using a variant of the classic Euler-Lotka model. Manta ray rmax is most sensitive to the length of the reproductive cycle, and the median rmax of 0.11 year-1(CI: 0.089-0.137) is one of the lowest known of the 106 sharks and rays for which we have comparable demographic information. In common with other unprotected, unmanaged, high-value large-bodied species with low or very low productivity, manta rays are unlikely to sustain unmonitored, unregulated exploitation and may face increasing local and regional extinction risk.

scholarly journals Diagnosing the dangerous demography of manta rays using life history theory

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas K Dulvy ◽  
Sebastián A. Pardo ◽  
Colin A. Simpfendorfer ◽  
John K. Carlson
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Life History Theory ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Somatic Growth ◽  
Intrinsic Rate ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Demographic Information ◽  
Age At Maturity ◽  
Manta Ray

The directed harvest and global trade in the gill plates of mantas, and other mobulid rays, has led to increased fishing pressure and steep population declines in some locations. The slow life history, particularly of the manta rays, is cited as a key reason why such species have little capacity to withstand directed fisheries. Here, we place their life history and demography in the context of other sharks and rays. Despite the limited availability of data, we use life history theory and comparative analysis to develop plausible ranges of somatic growth rate, annual pup production and age at maturity to estimate risk of extinction (maximum intrinsic rate of population increase rmax) using a variant of the classic Euler-Lotka model. Manta ray rmax is most sensitive to the length of the reproductive cycle, and the median rmax of 0.11 year-1(CI: 0.089-0.137) is one of the lowest known of the 106 sharks and rays for which we have comparable demographic information. In common with other unprotected, unmanaged, high-value large-bodied species with low or very low productivity, manta rays are unlikely to sustain unmonitored, unregulated exploitation and may face increasing local and regional extinction risk.

scholarly journals Quantifying the known unknowns: estimating maximum intrinsic rate of population increase in the face of uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 953-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián A Pardo ◽  
Andrew B Cooper ◽  
John D Reynolds ◽  
Nicholas K Dulvy
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Reproductive Output ◽  
Intrinsic Rate ◽  
Biological Information ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Age At Maturity ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Life History Parameters

Abstract Sensitivity to overfishing is often estimated using simple models that depend upon life history parameters, especially for species lacking detailed biological information. Yet, there has been little exploration of how uncertainty in life history parameters can influence demographic parameter estimates and therefore fisheries management options. We estimate the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase (rmax) for ten coastal carcharhiniform shark populations using an unstructured life history model that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in life history parameters. We evaluate how the two directly estimated parameters, age at maturity αmat and annual reproductive output b, most influenced rmax estimates. Uncertainty in age at maturity values was low, but resulted in moderate uncertainty in rmax estimates. The model was sensitive to uncertainty in annual reproductive output for the least fecund species with fewer than 5 female offspring per year, which is not unusual for large elasmobranchs, marine mammals, and seabirds. Managers and policy makers should be careful to restrict mortality on species with very low annual reproductive output <2 females per year. We recommend elasmobranch biologists to measure frequency distributions of litter sizes (rather than just a range) as well as improving estimates of natural mortality of data-poor elasmobranchs.

scholarly journals Body mass, temperature, and depth shape the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase in sharks and rays

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián A. Pardo ◽  
Nicholas K. Dulvy
Keyword(s):  
Body Mass ◽  
Deep Sea ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Intrinsic Rate ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Theoretic Approach ◽  
Mass Scaling ◽  
Mass Temperature ◽  
Recovery Potential

AbstractAn important challenge in ecology is to understand variation in species’ maximum intrinsic rate of population increase,rmax, not least becausermaxunderpins our understanding of the limits of fishing, recovery potential, and ultimately extinction risk. Across many vertebrates, terrestrial and aquatic, body mass and environmental temperature across important correlatesrmaxacross species. In sharks and rays, specifically,rmaxis known be lower in larger species, but also in deep-sea ones. We use an information-theoretic approach that accounts for phylogenetic relatedness to evaluate the relative importance of body mass, temperature and depth onrmax. We show that both temperature and depth have separate effects on shark and rayrmaxestimates, such that species living in deeper waters have lowerrmax. Furthermore, temperature also correlates with changes in the mass scaling coefficient, suggesting that as body size increases, decreases inrmaxare much steeper for species in warmer waters. These findings suggest that there (as-yet understood) depth-related processes that limit the maximum rate at which populations can grow in deep sea sharks and rays. While the deep ocean is associated with colder temperatures, other factors that are independent of temperature, such as food availability and physiological constraints, may influence the lowrmaxobserved in deep sea sharks and rays. Our study lays the foundation for predicting the intrinsic limit of fishing, recovery potential, and extinction risk species based on easily accessible environmental information such as temperature and depth, particularly for data-poor species.

Plant Resistance in Some Modern Soybean Varieties May Favor Population Growth and Modify the Stylet Penetration of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricélia F Almeida ◽  
Clébson S Tavares ◽  
Euires O Araújo ◽  
Marcelo C Picanço ◽  
Eugênio E Oliveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Bemisia Tabaci ◽  
Intrinsic Rate ◽  
Reproductive Rate ◽  
Genetically Engineered ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Net Reproductive Rate ◽  
Bt Toxin ◽  
Demographic Performance

Abstract Complaints of severe damage by whiteflies in soybean fields containing genetically engineered (GE) varieties led us to investigate the role of transgenic soybean varieties expressing resistance to some insects (Cry1Ac Bt toxin) and to herbicide (glyphosate) on the population growth and feeding behavior of Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) MEAM1 (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae). In the laboratory, the whiteflies reared on the GE Bt soybeans had a net reproductive rate (R0) 100% higher and intrinsic rate of population increase (rm) 15% higher than those reared on non-GE soybeans. The increased demographic performance was associated with a higher lifetime fecundity. In electrical penetration graphs, the whiteflies reared on the GE soybeans had fewer probes and spent 50% less time before reaching the phloem phase from the beginning of the first successful probe, indicating a higher risk of transmission of whitefly-borne viruses. Data from Neotropical fields showed a higher population density of B. tabaci on two soybean varieties expressing glyphosate resistance and Cry1Ac Bt toxin. These results indicate that some GE soybean varieties expressing insect and herbicide resistances can be more susceptible to whiteflies than non-GE ones or those only expressing herbicide resistance. Most likely, these differences are related to varietal features that increase host-plant susceptibility to whiteflies. Appropriate pest management may be needed to deal with whiteflies in soybean fields, especially in warm regions, and breeders may want to consider the issue when developing new soybean varieties.

Potential Rates of Increase of a Harbour Porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) Population Subjected to Incidental Mortality in Commercial Fisheries

1991 ◽  
Vol 48 (12) ◽  
pp. 2429-2435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas H. Woodley ◽  
Andrew J. Read
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Maine ◽  
Intrinsic Rate ◽  
Frequency Equation ◽  
Harbour Porpoise ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Intrinsic Rate Of Increase ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Phocoena Phocoena ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Incidental Mortality

We estimated the potential intrinsic rate of increase (r) of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) population in the Bay of Fundy and Gulf of Maine using empirical data on reproductive rates (mx) and several hypothetical survival (Ix) schedules. Schedules of Ix, to maximum ages of 12 and 15 yr, were calculated from two potential natural mortality (nx) schedules combined with several schedules of incidental mortality (hx) estimates. The most realistic results were obtained when nx of non-calves were calculated from Caugley's (1966. Ecology 47: 906–918) smoothed age-frequency equation for Himalayan thar (Hemitragus jemlahicus) and applied in conjunction with a range of calf natural mortality estimates, this model indicates that harbour porpoises have a limited capacity for population increase, and populations are unlikely to sustain even moderate levels of incidental mortality (4% of the population per year). Extending the maximum age used in the models from 12 to 15 yr does little to increase estimates of r for the harbour porpoise population, and hence their susceptibility to incidental mortality.

scholarly journals Comparison of Field Population Growths of Three Cereal Aphid Species on Winter Wheat

2011 ◽  
Vol 39 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 61-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Jarošík ◽  
A. Honěk ◽  
A. Tichopád
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Rhopalosiphum Padi ◽  
Intrinsic Rate ◽  
Aphid Species ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Intrinsic Rate Of Increase ◽  
Cereal Aphid ◽  
Metopolophium Dirhodum ◽  
Aphid Density ◽  
Rate Of Increase

Population growths of three aphid species colonising winter wheat stands, Metopolophium dirhodum, Rhopalosiphum padi and Sitobion avenae, were analysed by regression method. The calculations were based on counts in 268 winter wheat plots at 3 or 7 day intervals over 10 (leaves) or 6 (ears) years. The population dynamics of a particular species differed widely between years. Density independent exponential growth of the population was most common, but its rate differed significantly between species, and for S. avenae also between populations on leaves and ears, on which the populations grew fastest. Field estimates of the intrinsic rate of increase derived from the exponential growths ranged between 0.010–0.026 in M. dirhodum, 0.0071–0.011 in R. padi, and between 0.00078–0.0061 and 0.0015–0.13 in S. avenae on leaves and ears, respectively. In the populations with the most vigorous population growth, S. avenae on ears and M. dirhodum on leaves, the rate of population increase significantly decreased with increasing aphid density.  

scholarly journals Breeding biology and population increase of the Endangered Bermuda Petrel Pterodroma cahow

2012 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
JEREMY MADEIROS ◽  
NICHOLAS CARLILE ◽  
DAVID PRIDDEL
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Breeding Success ◽  
Reproductive Output ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Storm Damage ◽  
Breeding Phenology ◽  
North East ◽  
Rate Of Increase

SummaryThe Bermuda Petrel Pterodroma cahow was thought to have become extinct early in the 17th century due to a combination of hunting by human colonists and predation by introduced rats, cats, dogs and pigs. However, single individuals were found on four occasions during the first half of the 20th century, and in 1951 a small population was discovered breeding on several rocky islets in north-east Bermuda. Recovery actions began in 1962 when the population numbered just 18 pairs, dispersed among five small islets. Although rats extirpated one of these five colonies in 1967, the population has grown steadily to 56 breeding pairs in 2000. We investigated the breeding phenology, productivity and population size of the Bermuda Petrel between 2000/2001 and 2007/2008. Each year, the birds began arriving in Bermuda around mid-October. They departed on a pre-breeding exodus between 19 November and 14 December, returning after 32–56 days to lay a single egg between 31 December and 31 January. Eggs hatched from 16 February to 26 March after a mean (± SD) incubation period of 53 ± 2 days, and young fledged from 15 May to 25 June after a mean fledging period of 91 ± 5 days. Between 2000/2001 and 2007/2008, reproductive output ranged from 29 to 40 fledglings per annum. Mean annual breeding success (62%) was reasonably high relative to other Procellariiformes, largely due to the provision of artificial (concrete) nesting burrows. In 2008, the population numbered 85 breeding pairs. Monitoring since 1961 indicates the population has been increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every 22 years. This rate of increase, together with the increased incidence of storm damage, is making it progressively more impracticable to construct sufficient concrete burrows on the current nesting islets to accommodate all breeding pairs. The vulnerability of these sites to accelerating storm damage and erosion as a result of anthropomorphic climate change is now the greatest threat to the Bermuda Petrel.

Plausible bounds for maximum rate of increase in magpie geese (Anseranas semipalmata): implications for harvest

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry W. Brook ◽  
Peter J. Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Intrinsic Rate ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Sustainable Harvest ◽  
Precautionary Approach ◽  
Conservation Implications ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Prior Estimate ◽  
Over Exploitation

We used improved information on fecundity and credible estimates of survival to define the plausible bounds of maximum intrinsic rate of population increase (r m) in magpie geese and explored the management and conservation implications, given current estimates of off-take. We considered previous estimates of r m (0.78, based on time-series analysis of aerial count data) and the corresponding predicted maximum sustainable harvest rates (30–39% per annum) to be excessive, thereby risking poor management decisions. In contrast, our estimate of the maximum plausible range of r m (0.11–0.28) is substantially lower than the previous estimate, and suggests maximum harvest rates of no more than 5–14% of total population size per annum. We consider that it would be unwise to adopt the prior estimate of r m for management policy because it would risk over-exploitation. Our results embody a more precautionary approach to assessing maximum sustainable yield for magpie geese in northern Australia, and are not confounded by migration. The move from a simple empirical model to a partially mechanistic one reflects a significant improvement in understanding, but must nevertheless be viewed as part of an ongoing process of model refinement and testing.

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