Global Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Flux Inferred from TanSat XCO2 Retrievals

TanSat is China’s first greenhouse gases observing satellite. In recent years, substantial progresses have been achieved on retrieving column-averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction (XCO2). However, relatively few attempts have been made to estimate terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using TanSat XCO2 retrievals. In this study, based on the GEOS-Chem 4D-Var data assimilation system, we infer the global NEE from April 2017 to March 2018 using TanSat XCO2. The inversion estimates global NEE at −3.46 PgC yr-1, evidently higher than prior estimate and giving rise to an improved estimate of global atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Regionally, our inversion greatly increases the carbon uptakes in northern mid-to-high latitudes and significantly enhances the carbon releases in tropical and southern lands, especially in Africa and India peninsula. The increase of posterior sinks in northern lands is mainly attributed to the decreased carbon release during the nongrowing season, and the decrease of carbon uptakes in tropical and southern lands basically occurs throughout the year. Evaluations against independent CO2 observations and comparison with previous estimates indicate that although the land sinks in the northern middle latitudes and southern temperate regions are improved to a certain extent, they are obviously overestimated in northern high latitudes and underestimated in tropical lands (mainly northern Africa), respectively. These results suggest that TanSat XCO2 retrievals may have systematic negative biases in northern high latitudes and large positive biases over northern Africa, and further efforts are required to remove bias in these regions for better estimates of global and regional NEE.

Updated Global Fuel Exploitation Inventory (GFEI) for methane emissions from the oil, gas, and coal sectors: evaluation with inversions of atmospheric methane observations

We present an updated version of the Global Fuel Exploitation Inventory (GFEI) for methane emissions and evaluate it with results from global inversions of atmospheric methane observations from satellite (GOSAT) and in situ platforms (GLOBALVIEWplus). GFEI allocates methane emissions from oil, gas, and coal sectors and subsectors to a 0.1° × 0.1° grid by using the national emissions reported by individual countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and mapping them to infrastructure locations. Our updated GFEI v2 gives annual emissions for 2010–2019 that incorporate the most recent UNFCCC national reports, new oil/gas well locations, and improved spatial distribution of emissions for Canada, Mexico, and China. Russia's oil/gas emissions decrease by 83 % in its latest UNFCCC report while Nigerian emissions increase sevenfold, reflecting changes in assumed emission factors. Global gas emissions in GFEI v2 show little net change from 2010 to 2019 while oil emissions decrease and coal emissions slightly increase. Global emissions in GFEI v2 are lower than the EDGAR v6 and IEA inventories for all sectors though there is considerable variability in the comparison for individual countries. GFEI v2 estimates higher emissions by country than the Climate TRACE inventory with notable exceptions in Russia, the US, and the Middle East. Inversion results using GFEI as a prior estimate confirm the lower Russian emissions in the latest UNFCCC report but Nigerian emissions are too high. Oil/gas emissions are generally underestimated by the national inventories for the highest emitting countries including the US, Venezuela, Uzbekistan, Canada, and Turkmenistan. Offshore emissions in GFEI tend to be overestimated. Our updated GFEI v2 provides a platform for future evaluation of national emission inventories reported to the UNFCCC using the newer generation of satellite instruments such as TROPOMI with improved coverage and spatial resolution. It responds to recent aspirations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to integrate top-down and bottom-up information into the construction of national emission inventories.

Global distribution of methane emissions: a comparative inverse analysis of observations from the TROPOMI and GOSAT satellite instruments

We evaluate the global atmospheric methane column retrievals from the new TROPOMI satellite instrument and apply them to a global inversion of methane sources for 2019 at 2∘ × 2.5∘ horizontal resolution. We compare the results to an inversion using the sparser but more mature GOSAT satellite retrievals and to a joint inversion using both TROPOMI and GOSAT. Validation of TROPOMI and GOSAT with TCCON ground-based measurements of methane columns, after correcting for retrieval differences in prior vertical profiles and averaging kernels using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, shows global biases of −2.7 ppbv for TROPOMI and −1.0 ppbv for GOSAT and regional biases of 6.7 ppbv for TROPOMI and 2.9 ppbv for GOSAT. Intercomparison of TROPOMI and GOSAT shows larger regional discrepancies exceeding 20 ppbv, mostly over regions with low surface albedo in the shortwave infrared where the TROPOMI retrieval may be biased. Our inversion uses an analytical solution to the Bayesian inference of methane sources, thus providing an explicit characterization of error statistics and information content together with the solution. TROPOMI has ∼ 100 times more observations than GOSAT, but error correlation on the 2∘ × 2.5∘ scale of the inversion and large spatial inhomogeneity in the number of observations make it less useful than GOSAT for quantifying emissions at that scale. Finer-scale regional inversions would take better advantage of the TROPOMI data density. The TROPOMI and GOSAT inversions show consistent downward adjustments of global oil–gas emissions relative to a prior estimate based on national inventory reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change but consistent increases in the south-central US and in Venezuela. Global emissions from livestock (the largest anthropogenic source) are adjusted upward by TROPOMI and GOSAT relative to the EDGAR v4.3.2 prior estimate. We find large artifacts in the TROPOMI inversion over southeast China, where seasonal rice emissions are particularly high but in phase with extensive cloudiness and where coal emissions may be misallocated. Future advances in the TROPOMI retrieval together with finer-scale inversions and improved accounting of error correlations should enable improved exploitation of TROPOMI observations to quantify and attribute methane emissions on the global scale.

Effect of the protection zone in a diffusive ratio-dependent predator–prey model with fear and Allee effect

In this paper, we study the influence of a protection zone for the prey on a diffusive predator–prey model with fear factor and Allee effect. The prior estimate, global existence, nonexistence of nonconstant positive solutions and bifurcation from semitrivial solutions are well discussed. We show the existence of a critical patch value $\lambda ^{D}_{1}(\Omega _{0})$ λ 1 D ( Ω 0 ) of the protection zone, described by the principal eigenvalue of the Laplacian operator over $\Omega _{0}$ Ω 0 with Neumann boundary conditions. When the mortality rate of the predator $\mu \geq d_{2}\lambda ^{D}_{1}(\Omega _{0})$ μ ≥ d 2 λ 1 D ( Ω 0 ) , we show that the semitrivial solutions $(1,0)$ ( 1 , 0 ) and $(\theta,0)$ ( θ , 0 ) are unstable and there is no bifurcation occurring along respective semitrivial branches.

Improved method of estimating temperatures at meteor peak heights

For 2 decades, meteor radars have been routinely used to monitor atmospheric temperature around 90 km altitude. A common method, based on a temperature gradient model, is to use the height dependence of meteor decay time to obtain a height-averaged temperature in the peak meteor region. Traditionally this is done by fitting a linear regression model in the scattered plot of log⁡10(1/τ) and height, where τ is the half-amplitude decay time of the received signal. However, this method was found to be consistently biasing the slope estimate. The consequence of such a bias is that it produces a systematic offset in the estimated temperature, thus requiring calibration with other co-located measurements. The main reason for such a biasing effect is thought to be due to the failure of the classical regression model to take into account the measurement error in τ and the observed height. This is further complicated by the presence of various geophysical effects in the data, as well as observational limitation in the measuring instruments. To incorporate various error terms in the statistical model, an appropriate regression analysis for these data is the errors-in-variables model. An initial estimate of the slope parameter is obtained by assuming symmetric error variances in normalised height and log⁡10(1/τ). This solution is found to be a good prior estimate for the core of this bivariate distribution. Further improvement is achieved by defining density contours of this bivariate distribution and restricting the data selection process within higher contour levels. With this solution, meteor radar temperatures can be obtained independently without needing any external calibration procedure. When compared with co-located lidar measurements, the systematic offset in the estimated temperature is shown to have reduced to 5 % or better on average.

Trading mental effort for confidence in the metacognitive control of value-based decision-making

Why do we sometimes opt for actions or items that we do not value the most? Under current neurocomputational theories, such preference reversals are typically interpreted in terms of errors that arise from the unreliable signaling of value to brain decision systems. But, an alternative explanation is that people may change their mind because they are reassessing the value of alternative options while pondering the decision. So, why do we carefully ponder some decisions, but not others? In this work, we derive a computational model of the metacognitive control of decisions or MCD. In brief, we assume that fast and automatic processes first provide initial (and largely uncertain) representations of options' values, yielding prior estimates of decision difficulty. These uncertain value representations are then refined by deploying cognitive (e.g., attentional, mnesic) resources, the allocation of which is controlled by an effort-confidence tradeoff. Importantly, the anticipated benefit of allocating resources varies in a decision-by-decision manner according to the prior estimate of decision difficulty. The ensuing MCD model predicts response time, subjective feeling of effort, choice confidence, changes of mind, and choice-induced preference change and certainty gain. We test these predictions in a systematic manner, using a dedicated behavioral paradigm. Our results provide a quantitative link between mental effort, choice confidence, and preference reversals, which could inform interpretations of related neuroimaging findings.

Global distribution of methane emissions: a comparative inverse analysis of observations from the TROPOMI and GOSAT satellite instruments

We evaluate the global atmospheric methane column retrievals from the new TROPOMI satellite instrument and apply them to a global inversion of methane sources for 2019 at 2° × 2.5° horizontal resolution. We compare the results to an inversion using the sparser but more mature GOSAT satellite retrievals, as well as a joint inversion using both TROPOMI and GOSAT. Validation of TROPOMI and GOSAT with TCCON ground-based measurements of methane columns, after correcting for retrieval differences in prior vertical profiles and averaging kernels using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, shows global biases of −2.7 ppbv for TROPOMI and −1.0 ppbv for GOSAT, and regional biases of 6.7 ppbv for TROPOMI and 2.9 ppbv for GOSAT. Intercomparison of TROPOMI and GOSAT shows larger regional discrepancies exceeding 20 ppbv, mostly over regions with low surface albedo in the shortwave infrared where the TROPOMI retrieval may be biased. Our inversion uses an analytical solution to the Bayesian optimization of methane sources, thus providing an explicit characterization of error statistics and information content together with the solution. TROPOMI has ~100 times more observations than GOSAT but error correlation on the 2° × 2.5° scale of the inversion and large spatial variations of the number of observations make it less useful than GOSAT for quantifying emissions at that resolution. Finer-scale regional inversions would take better advantage of the TROPOMI data density. The TROPOMI and GOSAT inversions show consistent downward adjustments of global oil/gas emissions relative to a prior estimate based on national inventory reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but consistent increases in the south-central US and in Venezuela. Global emissions from livestock (the largest anthropogenic source) are adjusted upward by TROPOMI and GOSAT relative to the EDGAR v4.3.2 prior estimate. We find large artifacts in the TROPOMI inversion over Southeast China, where seasonal rice emissions are particularly high but in phase with extensive cloudiness, and where coal emissions may be misallocated. Future advances in the TROPOMI retrieval together with finer-scale inversions and improved accounting of error correlations should enable improved exploitation of TROPOMI observations to quantify and attribute methane emissions on the global scale.

Urban methane emission estimate using measurements obtained by MUCCnet (Munich Urban Carbon Column network)

<p>In 2019, we established the Munich Urban Carbon Column network (MUCCnet) [1] that measures the column-averaged concentration gradients of CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub> and CO using the differential column methodology (DCM, [2]). The network consists of five ground-based FTIR spectrometers (EM27/SUN from Bruker [3]), which are deployed both on the outskirts of Munich and in the city center. The distance between each outer spectrometer and the center station is approximately 10 km. Each spectrometer is protected by one of our fully automated enclosure systems [4], allowing us to run the network permanently. In addition, data are available from three one-month measurement campaigns in Munich between 2017 and 2019, each using five to six spectrometers.</p><p>To quantify urban methane emissions, we developed a Bayesian inverse modeling approach that was tested first in Indianapolis using campaign data from 2016 [5]. After adapting the modeling framework to the Munich case, we are able to use the large amount of data gathered by MUCCnet to quantify the methane emissions of the third largest city in Germany in detail. The framework takes the spatially resolved emission inventory TNO-GHGco (1 km x 1 km) as a prior estimate and refines it through the Bayesian inversion of the EM27/SUN observations. Our long-term dataset and continuous operation will provide new insights into Munich’s urban carbon cycle and will allow us to evaluate climate protection measures in the future.</p><p>Thanks to the automation, we were also able to continue the measurements during the COVID-19 lockdowns in Germany, resulting in a unique dataset that allows us to verify and improve our model.</p><p>[1] Dietrich, F., Chen, J., Voggenreiter, B., Aigner, P., Nachtigall, N., and Reger, B.: Munich permanent urban greenhouse gas column observing network, Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2020-300, accepted, 2020.</p><p>[2] Chen, J., Viatte, C., Hedelius, J. K., Jones, T., Franklin, J. E., Parker, H., Gottlieb, E. W., Wennberg, P. O., Dubey, M. K., and Wofsy, S. C.: Differential column measurements using compact solar-tracking spectrometers, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8479–8498, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8479-2016, 2016. </p><p>[3] Gisi, M., Hase, F., Dohe, S., Blumenstock, T., Simon, A., and Keens, A.: XCO<sub>2</sub>-measurements with a tabletop FTS using solar absorption spectroscopy, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 5, 2969–2980, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-5-2969-2012, 2012.</p><p>[4] Heinle, L. and Chen, J.: Automated enclosure and protection system for compact solar-tracking spectrometers, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2173–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2173-2018, 2018.</p><p>[5] Jones, T. S., Franklin, J. E., Chen, J., Dietrich, F., Hajny, K. D., Paetzold, J. C., Wenzel, A., Gately, C., Gottlieb, E., Parker, H., Dubey, M., Hase, F., Shepson, P. B., Mielke, L. H., and Wofsy, S. C.: Assessing Urban Methane Emissions using Column Observing Portable FTIR Spectrometers and a Novel Bayesian Inversion Framework, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1262, in review, 2021.</p>

Modelling carbon fluxes from New Zealand’s pastoral agriculture

<p>Grasslands cover half of New Zealand’s land area, with much of it consisting of pastoral agriculture systems of varying intensity. Carbon fluxes from grazed pasture are thus a crucial part of the national carbon budget. We have used Biome-BGCMuSo v6 to model national CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes from grasslands, calibrated with eddy covariance measurements at grazed farms at various sites around the country. We discuss the challenges of scaling up site measurements to the national level and modelling the diversity of New Zealand's pastoral sector. Model outputs will subsequently be used as a prior estimate of CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes in an atmospheric inversion to obtain a total carbon budget for New Zealand as part of the CarbonWatch-NZ project.</p>

Two Bregman Projection Methods for Solving Variational Inequality Problems in Hilbert Spaces with Applications to Signal Processing

Studying Bregman distance iterative methods for solving optimization problems has become an important and very interesting topic because of the numerous applications of the Bregman distance techniques. These applications are based on the type of convex functions associated with the Bregman distance. In this paper, two different extragraident methods were proposed for studying pseudomonotone variational inequality problems using Bregman distance in real Hilbert spaces. The first algorithm uses a fixed stepsize which depends on a prior estimate of the Lipschitz constant of the cost operator. The second algorithm uses a self-adaptive stepsize which does not require prior estimate of the Lipschitz constant of the cost operator. Some convergence results were proved for approximating the solutions of pseudomonotone variational inequality problem under standard assumptions. Moreso, some numerical experiments were also given to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithms using different convex functions such as the Shannon entropy and the Burg entropy. In addition, an application of the result to a signal processing problem is also presented.