Simulation and Analysis of Animal Movement Paths using Numerus Model Builder

ABSTRACTAnimal movement paths are represented by point-location time series called relocation data. How well such paths can be simulated, when the rules governing movement depend on the internal state of individuals and environmental factors (both local and, when memory is involved, global) remains an open question. To answer this, we formulate and test models able to capture the essential statistics of multiphase versions of such paths (viz., movement-phase-specific step-length and turning-angle means, variances, auto-correlation, and cross correlation values), as well as broad scale movement patterns. The latter may include patchy coverage of the landscape, as well as the existence of home-range boundaries and gravitational centers-of-movement (e.g., centered around nests). Here we present a Numerus Model Builder implementation of two kinds of models: a high-frequency, multi-mode, biased, correlated random walk designed to simulate real movement data at a scale that permits simulation and identification of path segments that range from minutes to days; and a model that uses statistics extracted from relocation data—either empirical or simulated—to construct movement modes and phases at subhourly to daily scales. We evaluate how well our derived statistical movement model captures patterns produced by our more detailed simulation model as a way to evaluate how well derived statistical movement models may capture patterns occurring in empirical data.