scholarly journals The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz U.G. Kraemer ◽  
Chia-Hung Yang ◽  
Bernardo Gutierrez ◽  
Chieh-Hsi Wu ◽  
Brennan Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Travel History ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
State Interventions ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 368 (6490) ◽  
pp. 493-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz U. G. Kraemer ◽  
Chia-Hung Yang ◽  
Bernardo Gutierrez ◽  
Chieh-Hsi Wu ◽  
Brennan Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Travel History ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
State Interventions ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Tourism Impacts, Tourism-Phobia and Gentrification in Historic Centers: The Cases of Málaga (Spain) and Gdansk (Poland)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 408
Author(s):  
Fernando Almeida-García ◽  
Rafael Cortés-Macías ◽  
Krzysztof Parzych
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Research ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Tourism Impacts ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Tourist Accommodation ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Urban Characteristics

This study analyzes the role of residents in urban tourist destinations affected by the increase in tourist flows, which have generated various problems such as tourism, gentrification and the emergence of tourism as a threat to residents. The role of residents in tourist destinations has not been analyzed regularly during the development process of destinations. We study two cases of historic centers in European cities, with the aim of comparing tourism problems, which are common to most European urban destinations. This study was conducted by administering surveys amongst residents of these historic centers (378 in Málaga, Spain, and 380 in Gdansk, Poland). These cities show a similar demographic size and urban characteristics. This is the first comparative research on tourism-phobia and gentrification in destinations, a field of analysis that is still not studied much. We develop specific scales to measure gentrification and tourism-phobia; moreover, we study the impact of some tourist problems that affect residents (noise, dirt, occupation of public spaces, etc.), and we show the spatial distribution of tourism-phobia. The same analysis instruments are used for both cities. The results of this study show that the tourism-phobia situation is different in the analyzed destinations. It is more intense in the case of Málaga than in Gdansk. The two historic centers are especially affected by the processes of increased tourist flows and the growth of new forms of tourist accommodation. The research results show that the residents’ annoyance caused by tourism gentrification is more intense than tourism-phobia. Both case studies highlight the residents’ complaints regarding the inadequate management of problems by public stakeholders and control measures.

scholarly journals Lockdown related travel behavior undermines the containment of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishant Kishore ◽  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Pamela P. Martinez ◽  
Pablo M. De Salazar ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTIn response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented policies of travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public’s response to announcements of lockdowns - defined here as restrictions on both local movement or long distance travel - will determine how effective these kinds of interventions are. Here, we measure the impact of the announcement and implementation of lockdowns on human mobility patterns by analyzing aggregated mobility data from mobile phones. We find that following the announcement of lockdowns, both local and long distance movement increased. To examine how these behavioral responses to lockdown policies may contribute to epidemic spread, we developed a simple agent-based spatial model. We find that travel surges following announcements of lockdowns can increase seeding of the epidemic in rural areas, undermining the goal of the lockdown of preventing disease spread. Appropriate messaging surrounding the announcement of lockdowns and measures to decrease unnecessary travel are important for preventing these unintended consequences of lockdowns.

scholarly journals The impact of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huaiyu Tian ◽  
Yonghong Liu ◽  
Yidan Li ◽  
Chieh-Hsi Wu ◽  
Bin Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
National Emergency ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRespiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) appeared in China during December 2019. Attempting to contain infection, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January and implemented a national emergency response. Here we evaluate the spread and control of the epidemic based on a unique synthesis of data including case reports, human movement and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown slowed the dispersal of infection to other cities by an estimated 2.91 days (95%CI: 2.54-3.29), delaying epidemic growth elsewhere in China. Other cities that implemented control measures pre-emptively reported 33.3% (11.1-44.4%) fewer cases in the first week of their outbreaks (13.0; 7.1-18.8) compared with cities that started control later (20.6; 14.5-26.8). Among interventions investigated here, the most effective were suspending intra-city public transport, closing entertainment venues and banning public gatherings. The national emergency response delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic and, by 19 February (day 50), had averted hundreds of thousands of cases across China.One sentence summaryTravel restrictions and the national emergency response delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China.

scholarly journals Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruiyun Li ◽  
Sen Pei ◽  
Bin Chen ◽  
Yimeng Song ◽  
Tao Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

AbstractBackgroundEstimation of the fraction and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Many mild infections are typically not reported and, depending on their contagiousness, may support stealth transmission and the spread of documented infection.MethodsHere we use observations of reported infection and spread within China in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with the emerging coronavirus, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness.ResultsWe estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%-90%]) prior to the Wuhan travel shutdown (January 23, 2020). Per person, these undocumented infections were 52% as contagious as documented infections ([44%-69%]) and were the source of infection for two-thirds of documented cases. Our estimate of the reproductive number (2.23; [1.77-3.00]) aligns with earlier findings; however, after travel restrictions and control measures were imposed this number falls considerably.ConclusionsA majority of COVID-19 infections were undocumented prior to implementation of control measures on January 23, and these undocumented infections substantially contributed to virus transmission. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of COVID-19 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging. Our findings also indicate that heightened awareness of the outbreak, increased use of personal protective measures, and travel restriction have been associated with reductions of the overall force of infection; however, it is unclear whether this reduction will be sufficient to stem the virus spread.

scholarly journals Medical Capacity Shortages Facilitated the Rapid Dissemination of COVID-19 in Wuhan, New York State, and Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuehao Xu ◽  
Cheng Zhang ◽  
Lixian Qian
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York State ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
York State ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Rapid Dissemination ◽  
City State ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

AbstractDuring the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, every public health system faced the potential challenge of medical capacity shortages. Infections without timely diagnosis or treatment may facilitate the stealth transmission and spread of the virus. Using infection and medical capacity information reported in Wuhan in China, New York State in the United States, and Italy, we developed a dynamic susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model to estimate the impact of medical capacity shortages during the COVID-19 outbreak at the city, state, and country levels. After accounting for the effects of travel restrictions and control measures, we find that the number of infections in Wuhan could have been 39% lower than the actual number if the medical capacity were doubled in this city. Similarly, we find the less shortages in medical capacity in both New York state and Italy, the faster decline in the daily infection numbers and the fewer deaths. This study provides a method for estimating potential shortages and explains how they may dynamically facilitate disease spreading during future pandemics such as COVID-19.

scholarly journals Variation in human mobility and its impact on the risk of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng-Chun Chang ◽  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Yu-An Li ◽  
Cheng-Sheng Lee ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Intercity Travel ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background As COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, understanding how patterns of human mobility and connectivity affect outbreak dynamics, especially before outbreaks establish locally, is critical for informing response efforts. In Taiwan, most cases to date were imported or linked to imported cases. Methods In collaboration with Facebook Data for Good, we characterized changes in movement patterns in Taiwan since February 2020, and built metapopulation models that incorporate human movement data to identify the high risk areas of disease spread and assess the potential effects of local travel restrictions in Taiwan. Results We found that mobility changed with the number of local cases in Taiwan in the past few months. For each city, we identified the most highly connected areas that may serve as sources of importation during an outbreak. We showed that the risk of an outbreak in Taiwan is enhanced if initial infections occur around holidays. Intracity travel reductions have a higher impact on the risk of an outbreak than intercity travel reductions, while intercity travel reductions can narrow the scope of the outbreak and help target resources. The timing, duration, and level of travel reduction together determine the impact of travel reductions on the number of infections, and multiple combinations of these can result in similar impact. Conclusions To prepare for the potential spread within Taiwan, we utilized Facebook’s aggregated and anonymized movement and colocation data to identify cities with higher risk of infection and regional importation. We developed an interactive application that allows users to vary inputs and assumptions and shows the spatial spread of the disease and the impact of intercity and intracity travel reduction under different initial conditions. Our results can be used readily if local transmission occurs in Taiwan after relaxation of border control, providing important insights into future disease surveillance and policies for travel restrictions.

scholarly journals Observing the silent world under COVID-19 with a comprehensive impact analysis based on human mobility

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaobin Wang ◽  
Yun Tong ◽  
Yupeng Fan ◽  
Haimeng Liu ◽  
Jun Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Underdeveloped Countries ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Human World ◽  
Dynamic Relationships ◽  
The Impact

AbstractSince spring 2020, the human world seems to be exceptionally silent due to mobility reduction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To better measure the real-time decline of human mobility and changes in socio-economic activities in a timely manner, we constructed a silent index (SI) based on Google’s mobility data. We systematically investigated the relations between SI, new COVID-19 cases, government policy, and the level of economic development. Results showed a drastic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on increasing SI. The impact of COVID-19 on human mobility varied significantly by country and place. Bi-directional dynamic relationships between SI and the new COVID-19 cases were detected, with a lagging period of one to two weeks. The travel restriction and social policies could immediately affect SI in one week; however, could not effectively sustain in the long run. SI may reflect the disturbing impact of disasters or catastrophic events on the activities related to the global or national economy. Underdeveloped countries are more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Pedestrian Flow Patterns in Urban POIs—An Example from Beijing

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 479
Author(s):  
Yihang Li ◽  
Liyan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Flow Patterns ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Pedestrian Flow ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Functional Categories ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic is a major challenge for society as a whole, and analyzing the impact of the spread of the epidemic and government control measures on the travel patterns of urban residents can provide powerful help for city managers to designate top-level epidemic prevention policies and specific epidemic prevention measures. This study investigates whether it is more appropriate to use groups of POIs with similar pedestrian flow patterns as the unit of study rather than functional categories of POIs. In this study, we analyzed the hour-by-hour pedestrian flow data of key locations in Beijing before, during, and after the strict epidemic prevention and control period, and we found that the pedestrian flow patterns differed greatly in different periods by using a composite clustering index; we interpreted the clustering results from two perspectives: groups of pedestrian flow patterns and functional categories. The results show that depending on the specific stage of epidemic prevention and control, the number of unique pedestrian flow patterns decreased from four before the epidemic to two during the strict control stage and then increased to six during the initial resumption of work. The restrictions on movement are correlated with most of the visitations, and the release of restrictions led to an increase in the variety of unique pedestrian flow patterns compared to that in the pre-restriction period, even though the overall number of visitations decreased, indicating that social restrictions led to differences in the flow patterns of POIs and increased social distance.

scholarly journals Collaboration: the key to investigations of emerging and re-emerging diseases

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-36
Author(s):  
Douglas L. Hatch ◽  
Imam Z. Imam
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Work ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Quality Of Data ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
Extensive Field ◽  
Outbreak Investigations ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Countries need teams of well trained epidemiologists with extensive field experience to work with clinicians and laboratory scientists to conduct prompt and effective outbreak investigations of epidemics. To identify these outbreaks of possible emerging or re-emerging problems, existing surveillance must be strengthened and the quality of data validated routinely. In addition, ministry of health officials and international agencies need an open, collaborative, scientific work environment. The best environment to design effective interventions and control measures to limit the impact of these newly identified problems on the public’s health is one of cooperation and collaboration

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