Intercity Online Car-Hailing Travel Demand Prediction via a Spatiotemporal Transformer Method

Traffic prediction is a critical aspect of many real-world scenarios that requires accurate traffic status predictions, such as travel demand prediction. The emergence of online car-hailing activities has given people greater mobility and makes intercity travel more frequent. The increase in online car-hailing demand has often led to a supply–demand imbalance where there is a mismatch between the immediate availability of car-hailing services and the number of passengers in certain areas. Accurate prediction of online car-hailing demand promotes efficiencies and minimizes resources and time waste. However, many prior related studies often fail to fully utilize spatiotemporal characteristics. With the development of newer deep-learning models, this paper aims to solve online car-hailing problems with an ST-transformer model. The spatiotemporal characteristics of online car-hailing data are analyzed and extracted. The study region is divided into subareas, and the demand for each subarea is summed at a specific time interval. Historical demand of the areas is used to predict future demand. The results of the ST-transformer outperformed other baseline models, namely, VAR, SVR, LSTM, LSTNet, and transformers. The validated results suggest that the ST-transformer is more capable of capturing spatiotemporal characteristics compared to the other models. Additionally, compared to others, the model is less affected by data sparsity.

Exploring the Factors of Intercity Ridesplitting Based on Observed and GIS Data: A Case Study in China

Ridesplitting, a form of ridesourcing in which riders with similar origins and destinations are matched, is an effective mode of sustainable transportation. In recently years, ridesplitting has spread rapidly worldwide and plays an increasingly important role in intercity travel. However, intercity ridesplitting has rarely been studied. In this paper, we use observe intercity ridesplitting data between Yinchuan and Shizuishan in China and building environment data based on a geographic information system (GIS) to analyse temporal, spatial and other characteristics. Then, we divide the study area into grids and explore the contributing factors that affect the intercity ridesplitting matching success rate. Based on these significant factors, we develop a binary logistic regression (BLR) model and predict the intercity ridesplitting matching success rate. The results indicate that morning peak, evening peak, weekends and weekdays, precipitation and snowfall, population density, some types of points of interest (POI), travel time and the advance appointment time are significant factors. In addition, the prediction accuracy of the model is more than 78%, which shows that the factors studied in this paper have good explanatory power. The results of this study can help in understanding the characteristics of intercity ridesplitting and provide a reference for improving the intercity ridesplitting matching success rate.

Modeling Intercity Travel Mode Choice with Data Balance Changes: A Comparative Analysis of Bayesian Logit Model and Artificial Neural Networks

This study conducts a comprehensive comparative analysis of regression-based multinomial models and artificial neural network models in intercity travel mode choices. The four intercity travel modes of airplane, high-speed rail (HSR), train, and express bus were used for analysis. Passengers’ activity data over the process of intercity travel were collected to develop the models. The standard multinomial logit (MNL) regression and Bayesian multinomial logit (BMNL) regression were compared with the radial basis function (RBF) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results show that MLP performs best in terms of predictive accuracy, followed by BMNL and MNL, and RBF is the least accurate. The performances of all models were examined against changes in data balance, and it was found that rebalancing can improve fitting performance while slightly reducing the predictive performance. This comparative study and its parameter estimation shed new light on the comparison of traditional and emerging models in travel behavior studies, and the findings can be used as heuristic guidance for all stakeholders.

Exploring Influencing Factors of Intercity Mode Choice from View of Entire Travel Chain

Exploring the influencing factors of intercity travel mode choice can reveal passengers’ travel decision mechanisms and help traffic departments to develop an effective demand management policy. To investigate these factors, a survey was conducted in Xi’an, China, to collect data about passengers’ travel chains, including airplane, high-speed railway (HSR), train, and express bus. A Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model is developed to identify significant factors and explicate unobserved heterogeneity across observations. The effect of significant factors on intercity travel mode choice is quantitatively assessed by the odds ratio (OR) technique. The results show that the Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model outperforms the traditional Bayesian multinomial logit model, indicating that accommodating the unobserved heterogeneity across observations can improve the model fit. The model estimation results show that ticket purchasing method, comfort, punctuality, and access time are random parameters that have heterogeneous effects on intercity travel mode choice.

Influence of Weather Conditions on the Intercity Travel Mode Choice: A Case of Xi’an

To explore the influence of weather conditions on the choice of the intercity travel mode of travelers, four modes of traveler transportation were studied in Xi'an, China, in March 2019: airplane, high-speed rail, conventional train, and express bus. The individual characteristics of travelers and intercity travel activity data were obtained, and they were matched with the weather characteristics at the departure time of the travelers. The Bayesian multinomial logit regression was employed to explore the relationship between the travel mode choice and weather characteristics. The results showed that temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind, air quality index, and visibility had significant effects on the travel mode selection of travelers, and the addition of these variables could improve the model’s predictive performance. The research results can provide a scientific decision basis for traveler flow transfer and the prediction of traffic modes choice due to the effects of climate change.

Comparison of Intercity Travel Network Structure during Daily Time and Holiday in China

Intercity travel by residents promotes the regathering and dissemination of social and economic factors. Based on big data from Tencent’s location-based service, 346 cities above the prefecture level in China were chosen as study objects, with 2018 as the study time node. To construct the intercity residents’ travel network, complex network analysis and GIS spatial analysis methods were used. Furthermore, when analyzing the structural characteristics and spatial differences of Chinese residents’ intercity travel from different time perspectives (the whole year, daily, Spring Festival travel rush, and special holidays), Gephi network analysis tools and ArcGIS spatial analysis software were used. The following are the major findings: daily and the whole year intercity travel by Chinese residents, as well as intercity travel during special holidays and the Spring Festival, all exhibit the “diamond” structure, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou-Shenzhen, and Chengdu-Chongqing at the core. The distribution of lines in and around the “diamond” is large and concentrated from the perspective of the hierarchical nature of the residents’ intercity travel network. Significant increases in high-intensity population flow lines within the “diamond” can be seen during Spring Festival travel and holidays. The number of cities involved in the inflow line is significantly greater than that involved in the outflow line, as demonstrated by the number of residents in the first point of travel, indicating that there is a difference between the central cities flowing into and out of the network. The first flow of the central city is the most visible during the Spring Festival travel period. Most cities in the resident intercity travel network have relatively low degrees of centrality, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality, and the number of cities with large values of the three is small, and they are concentrated in the apex and interior of the “diamond” structure.

Prinsip Perencanaan dan Kriteria Pengendalian Pengembangan Fasilitas Rest-Area pada Jalan Tol di Indonesia

Stopovers and relaxing facilities are important in intercity travel on toll roads. Long distances travel times in toll roads increase the supply and demand of these facilities in Indonesia. Not only the needs for refueling and resting, but also new support facilities demanded in rest area are often found, such as shopping, restaurant, worship place, and others. This phenomenon has attracted many investors to establish rest area with those complex facilities in term of business profit. To prevent negative impact of development and to protect main function of toll roads, this paper will discuss the planning and development control principles of rest areas located on toll roads in Indonesia. Analysis of components and criteria for rest areas on toll roads are generated by analyzing problems occurred. Site location, site area, accessibility, and main facilities specification are absolute factors, while zoning, circulation, road signage, and site utilities are conditional factors. The planning principles is to guarantee safety, security, and convenience of all activities in and around rest area and toll road. This research describes several criteria and components that should be controlled in order to achieve rest area planning principles that determined by qualitative methods.