scholarly journals Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Kissler ◽  
Christine Tedijanto ◽  
Marc Lipsitch ◽  
Yonatan H. Grad
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Critical Care ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Healthcare Resources ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
Appropriate Care ◽  
Care Capacity

AbstractThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is straining healthcare resources worldwide, prompting social distancing measures to reduce transmission intensity. The amount of social distancing needed to curb the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the context of seasonally varying transmission remains unclear. Using a mathematical model, we assessed that one-time interventions will be insufficient to maintain COVID-19 prevalence within the critical care capacity of the United States. Seasonal variation in transmission will facilitate epidemic control during the summer months but could lead to an intense resurgence in the autumn. Intermittent distancing measures can maintain control of the epidemic, but without other interventions, these measures may be necessary into 2022. Increasing critical care capacity could reduce the duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic while ensuring that critically ill patients receive appropriate care.SummaryOne-time distancing results in a fall COVID-19 peak. Intermittent efforts require greater hospital capacity and surveillance.

scholarly journals Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 368 (6493) ◽  
pp. 860-868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Kissler ◽  
Christine Tedijanto ◽  
Edward Goldstein ◽  
Yonatan H. Grad ◽  
Marc Lipsitch
Keyword(s):  
Critical Care ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Serological Studies ◽  
Cross Immunity ◽  
Care Capacity ◽  
Pandemic Wave

It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

scholarly journals Increase in searches for erectile dysfunction during winter: seasonal variation evidence from Google Trends in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Belén Mora Garijo ◽  
Jonathan E. Katz ◽  
Aubrey Greer ◽  
Mia Gonzalgo ◽  
Alejandro García López ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
United States ◽  
Erectile Dysfunction ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Kidney Stones ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
The United States ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Internet Search ◽  
Search Volume

AbstractSeveral diseases associated with erectile dysfunction (ED), such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and coronary artery disease (CAD), are known to have seasonal variation, with increased incidence during winter months. However, no literature exists on whether this chronological-seasonal evolution is also present within ED symptomatology. We hypothesized ED would follow the seasonal pattern of its lifestyle-influenced comorbid conditions and exhibit increased incidence during winter months. In order to investigate the seasonal variation of ED in the United States between 2009 and 2019, Internet search query data were obtained using Google Trends. Normalized search volume was determined during the winter and summer seasons for ED, other diseases known to be significantly associated with ED (T2DM and CAD), kidney stones (positive control), and prostate cancer (negative control). There were significantly more internet search queries for ED during the winter than during the summer (p = 0.001). CAD and T2DM also had significantly increased search volume during winter months compared to summer months (p < 0.001 and p = 0.011, respectively). By contrast, searches for kidney stones were significantly increased in the summer than in the winter (p < 0.001). There was no significant seasonal variation in the relative search frequency for prostate cancer (p = 0.75). In conclusion, Google Trends internet search data across a ten-year period in the United States suggested a seasonal variation in ED, which implies an increase in ED during winter. This novel finding in ED epidemiology may help increase awareness of ED’s associated lifestyle risk factors, which may facilitate early medical evaluation and treatment for those at risk of both ED and cardiovascular disease.

Regionalization of Critical Care in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharon Leung ◽  
Stephen M. Pastores ◽  
John M. Oropello ◽  
Craig M. Lilly ◽  
Samuel M. Galvagno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Critical Care ◽  
The United States

Impacts of Social Distancing on Pedestrian Behavior and Risk Perception

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 1302-1306
Author(s):  
Kyra B. Phillips ◽  
Kelly N. Byrne ◽  
Branden S. Kolarik ◽  
Audra K. Krake ◽  
Young C. Bui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Pedestrian Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Over Time

Since COVID-19 transmission accelerated in the United States in March 2020, guidelines have recommended that individuals wear masks and limit close contact by remaining at least six feet away from others, even while outdoors. Such behavior is important to help slow the spread of the global pandemic; however, it may require pedestrians to make critical decisions about entering a roadway in order to avoid others, potentially creating hazardous situations for both themselves and for drivers. In this survey study, we found that while overall patterns of self-reported pedestrian activity remained largely consistent over time, participants indicated increased willingness to enter active roadways when encountering unmasked pedestrians since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Participants also rated the risks of encountering unmasked pedestrians as greater than those associated with entering a street, though the perceived risk of passing an unmasked pedestrian on the sidewalk decreased over time.

scholarly journals Seasonal Variation in Incidence of Pediatric Medulloblastoma in the United States, 1995–2001

2006 ◽  
Vol 163 (suppl_11) ◽  
pp. S102-S102
Author(s):  
S Hoffman ◽  
J M Propp ◽  
B J McCarthy ◽  
R T Campbell ◽  
F G Davis
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pediatric Medulloblastoma

scholarly journals Advances in the Management of Sepsis and the Understanding of Key Immunologic Defects

2011 ◽  
Vol 115 (6) ◽  
pp. 1349-1362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee P. Skrupky ◽  
Paul W. Kerby ◽  
Richard S. Hotchkiss
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Critical Care ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Operating Room ◽  
The United States ◽  
Difficult Problem ◽  
Treatment Algorithms ◽  
New Treatment ◽  
Overall Mortality

Anesthesiologists are increasingly confronting the difficult problem of caring for patients with sepsis in the operating room and in the intensive care unit. Sepsis occurs in more than 750,000 patients in the United States annually and is responsible for more than 210,000 deaths. Approximately 40% of all intensive care unit patients have sepsis on admission to the intensive care unit or experience sepsis during their stay in the intensive care unit. There have been significant advances in the understanding of the pathophysiology of the disorder and its treatment. Although deaths attributable to sepsis remain stubbornly high, new treatment algorithms have led to a reduction in overall mortality. Thus, it is important for anesthesiologists and critical care practitioners to be aware of these new therapeutic regimens. The goal of this review is to include practical points on important advances in the treatment of sepsis and provide a vision of future immunotherapeutic approaches.

scholarly journals Correcting misperceptions of exponential coronavirus growth increases support for social distancing

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (28) ◽  
pp. 16264-16266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joris Lammers ◽  
Jan Crusius ◽  
Anne Gast
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Statistical Literacy ◽  
Social Distancing

The most effective way to stem the spread of a pandemic such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is social distancing, but the introduction of such measures is hampered by the fact that a sizeable part of the population fails to see their need. Three studies conducted during the mass spreading of the virus in the United States toward the end of March 2020 show that this results partially from people’s misperception of the virus’s exponential growth in linear terms and that overcoming this bias increases support for social distancing. Study 1 shows that American participants mistakenly perceive the virus’s exponential growth in linear terms (conservatives more so than liberals). Studies 2 and 3 show that instructing people to avoid the exponential growth bias significantly increases perceptions of the virus’s growth and thereby increases support for social distancing. Together, these results show the importance of statistical literacy to recruit support for fighting pandemics such as the coronavirus.

scholarly journals Diverse local epidemics reveal the distinct effects of population density, demographics, climate, depletion of susceptibles, and intervention in the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niayesh Afshordi ◽  
Benjamin Holder ◽  
Mohammad Bahrami ◽  
Daniel Lichtblau
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Density ◽  
The United States ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics and settlement, as well as the dynamic factors of climate, susceptible depletion, and intervention, on the spread of localized epidemics will be vital for mounting an effective response. We consider the entire set of local epidemics in the United States; a broad selection of demographic, population density, and climate factors; and local mobility data, tracking social distancing interventions, to determine the key factors driving the spread and containment of the virus. Assuming first a linear model for the rate of exponential growth (or decay) in cases/mortality, we find that population-weighted density, humidity, and median age dominate the dynamics of growth and decline, once interventions are accounted for. A focus on distinct metropolitan areas suggests that some locales benefited from the timing of a nearly simultaneous nationwide shutdown, and/or the regional climate conditions in mid-March; while others suffered significant outbreaks prior to intervention. Using a first-principles model of the infection spread, we then develop predictions for the impact of the relaxation of social distancing and local climate conditions. A few regions, where a significant fraction of the population was infected, show evidence that the epidemic has partially resolved via depletion of the susceptible population (i.e., “herd immunity”), while most regions in the United States remain overwhelmingly susceptible. These results will be important for optimal management of intervention strategies, which can be facilitated using our online dashboard.

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