scholarly journals Variational-LSTM Autoencoder to forecast the spread of coronavirus across the globe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed R. Ibrahim ◽  
James Haworth ◽  
Aldo Lipani ◽  
Nilufer Aslam ◽  
Tao Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Data ◽  
Public Information ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
School Closing ◽  
Public Events ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Spatio Temporal

AbstractModelling the spread of coronavirus globally while learning trends at global and country levels remains crucial for tackling the pandemic. We introduce a novel variational LSTM-Autoencoder model to predict the spread of coronavirus for each country across the globe. This deep spatio-temporal model does not only rely on historical data of the virus spread but also includes factors related to urban characteristics represented in locational and demographic data (such as population density, urban population, and fertility rate), an index that represent the governmental measures and response amid toward mitigating the outbreak (includes 13 measures such as: 1) school closing, 2) workplace closing, 3) cancelling public events, 4) close public transport, 5) public information campaigns, 6) restrictions on internal movements, 7) international travel controls, 8) fiscal measures, 9) monetary measures, 10) emergency investment in health care, 11) investment in vaccines, 12) virus testing framework, and 13) contact tracing). In addition, the introduced method learns to generate graph to adjust the spatial dependences among different countries while forecasting the spread. We trained two models for short and long-term forecasts. The first one is trained to output one step in future with three previous timestamps of all features across the globe, whereas the second model is trained to output 10 steps in future. Overall, the trained models show high validation for forecasting the spread for each country for short and long-term forecasts, which makes the introduce method a useful tool to assist decision and policymaking for the different corners of the globe.

scholarly journals Variational-LSTM autoencoder to forecast the spread of coronavirus across the globe

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0246120
Author(s):  
Mohamed R. Ibrahim ◽  
James Haworth ◽  
Aldo Lipani ◽  
Nilufer Aslam ◽  
Tao Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Data ◽  
Public Information ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
School Closing ◽  
Public Events ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Modelling the spread of coronavirus globally while learning trends at global and country levels remains crucial for tackling the pandemic. We introduce a novel variational-LSTM Autoencoder model to predict the spread of coronavirus for each country across the globe. This deep Spatio-temporal model does not only rely on historical data of the virus spread but also includes factors related to urban characteristics represented in locational and demographic data (such as population density, urban population, and fertility rate), an index that represents the governmental measures and response amid toward mitigating the outbreak (includes 13 measures such as: 1) school closing, 2) workplace closing, 3) cancelling public events, 4) close public transport, 5) public information campaigns, 6) restrictions on internal movements, 7) international travel controls, 8) fiscal measures, 9) monetary measures, 10) emergency investment in health care, 11) investment in vaccines, 12) virus testing framework, and 13) contact tracing). In addition, the introduced method learns to generate a graph to adjust the spatial dependences among different countries while forecasting the spread. We trained two models for short and long-term forecasts. The first one is trained to output one step in future with three previous timestamps of all features across the globe, whereas the second model is trained to output 10 steps in future. Overall, the trained models show high validation for forecasting the spread for each country for short and long-term forecasts, which makes the introduce method a useful tool to assist decision and policymaking for the different corners of the globe.

scholarly journals The impact of lockdown measures on COVID-19: a worldwide comparison

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
DI Papadopoulos ◽  
I Donkov ◽  
K Charitopoulos ◽  
S Bishara
Keyword(s):  
Public Information ◽  
Reproductive Rate ◽  
International Travel ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Early Introduction ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

AbstractObjectiveWe aimed to determine which aspects of the COVID-19 national response are independent predictors of COVID-19 mortality and case numbers.DesignComparative observational study between nations using publicly available data.SettingWorldwide Participants Covid-19 patientsInterventionsStringency of 11 lockdown policies recorded by the Blavatnik School of Government database and earliness of each policy relative to first recorded national casesMain outcome measuresAssociation with log10 National deaths (LogD) and log10 National cases (LogC) on the 29th April 2020 corrected for predictive demographic variablesResultsEarly introduction was associated with reduced mortality (n=137) and case numbers (n=150) for every policy aside from testing policy, contact tracing and workplace closure. Maximum policy stringency was only found to be associated with reduced mortality (p=0·003) or case numbers (p=0·010) for international travel restrictions. A multivariate model, generated using demographic parameters (r2=0·72 for LogD and r2=0·74 for LogC), was used to assess the timing of each policy. Early introduction of first measure (significance p=0·048, regression coefficient β=-0·004, 95% confidence interval 0 to -0·008), early international travel restrictions (p=0·042, β=-0·005, -0·001 to - 0·009) and early public information (p=0·021, β=-0·005, -0·001 to -0·009) were associated with reduced LogC. Early introduction of first measure (p=0·003, β=-0·007, -0·003 to -0·011), early international travel restrictions (p=0·003, β=-0·008, -0·004 to-0·012), early public information (p=0·003, β=-0·007, 0·003 to -0·011), early generalised workplace closure (p=0·031, β=-0·012, -0·002 to -0·022) and early generalised school closure (p=0·050, β=-0·012, 0 to -0·024) were associated with reduced LogC.ConclusionsAt this stage in the pandemic, early institution of public information, international travel restrictions, and workplace closure are associated with reduced COVID-19 mortality and maintaining these policies may help control the pandemic.What is already known on this topicThe COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly throughout the world and presented vast healthcare, economic and political challenges. Many nations have recently passed the peak of their infection rate, and are weighing up relaxation of lockdown strategies. Though the effect of individual lockdown policies can be estimated by modelling, little is known about the impact of individual policies on population case numbers or mortality through comparison of differing strategies between nations. A PubMed search was carried out on the 14/5/20 using keywords including “novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia”, “2019-nCoV”, “Sars-Cov-2”, “Covid-19”, “lockdown”,” policy”, “social distancing”, “isolation”, “quarantine” and “contact tracing” returned 258 studies in total. Following scanning of the above results, we found 19 studies that have examined the effect of lockdown within a region, which have demonstrated a reduction in case numbers after the introduction of a lockdown. There are no previous studies that have compared the effectiveness of government lockdowns between nations to determine the effectiveness of specific policies.What this study addsThis study examines the corollary between government policy and COVID-19 case numbers and mortality, correct as of the 29th of April 2020, for every nation that there is available date within the Blavatnik School of Government database on COVID-19 policy. The study demonstrates that early generalised school closure, early generalised workplace closure, early restriction of international travel and early public information campaigns are independently associated with reduced national COVID-19 mortality. The maximum stringency of individual lockdown policies were not associated with reduced case numbers or mortality. Early reintroduction of these policies may be most effective in a relapse of the pandemic, though, school closure, workplace closure and restriction of international travel carry heavy politico-economic implications. There was no measurable effect of maximum stringency of lockdown policy on outcome at this point in time, indicating that early timing of lockdown introduction is of greater importance than its stringency, provided that the resultant viral reproductive rate is less than 1.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal associations of air pollutant concentrations, GP respiratory consultations and respiratory inhaler prescriptions: a 5-year study of primary care in the borough of Lambeth, South London

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Ashworth ◽  
◽  
Antonis Analitis ◽  
David Whitney ◽  
Evangelia Samoli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Respiratory Morbidity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Although the associations of outdoor air pollution exposure with mortality and hospital admissions are well established, few previous studies have reported on primary care clinical and prescribing data. We assessed the associations of short and long-term pollutant exposures with General Practitioner respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions. Methods Daily primary care data, for 2009–2013, were obtained from Lambeth DataNet (LDN), an anonymised dataset containing coded data from all patients (1.2 million) registered at general practices in Lambeth, an inner-city south London borough. Counts of respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions by day and Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence were constructed. We developed models for predicting daily PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and O3 per LSOA. We used spatio-temporal mixed effects zero inflated negative binomial models to investigate the simultaneous short- and long-term effects of exposure to pollutants on the number of events. Results The mean concentrations of NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and O3 over the study period were 50.7, 21.2, 15.6, and 49.9 μg/m3 respectively, with all pollutants except NO2 having much larger temporal rather than spatial variability. Following short-term exposure increases to PM10, NO2 and PM2.5 the number of consultations and inhaler prescriptions were found to increase, especially for PM10 exposure in children which was associated with increases in daily respiratory consultations of 3.4% and inhaler prescriptions of 0.8%, per PM10 interquartile range (IQR) increase. Associations further increased after adjustment for weekly average exposures, rising to 6.1 and 1.2%, respectively, for weekly average PM10 exposure. In contrast, a short-term increase in O3 exposure was associated with decreased number of respiratory consultations. No association was found between long-term exposures to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 and number of respiratory consultations. Long-term exposure to NO2 was associated with an increase (8%) in preventer inhaler prescriptions only. Conclusions We found increases in the daily number of GP respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions following short-term increases in exposure to NO2, PM10 and PM2.5. These associations are more pronounced in children and persist for at least a week. The association with long term exposure to NO2 and preventer inhaler prescriptions indicates likely increased chronic respiratory morbidity.

scholarly journals Is Flexible Cystoscopy Necessary in the Investigation of Non-visible Haematuria?

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. e7-e12
Author(s):  
Jennifer Nowers ◽  
Mark Kitchen ◽  
Sneha Rathod ◽  
Sharbathana Nageswaren ◽  
Caroline Lipski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Diagnosis ◽  
Care Service ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Public Information ◽  
University Teaching ◽  
Detection Rates ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Flexible Cystoscopy ◽  
Muscle Invasive ◽  
Age Range

Background: Historic evidence suggests up to 16% (approximately) of non-visible haematuria (NVH) referrals result in Urological cancer diagnosis. The majority are bladder cancers, for which flexible cystoscopy is regarded the “gold standard” diagnostic procedure. Recent changes to suspected cancer referral guidelines, public information campaigns and reduced smoking prevalence may have changed this percentage. We retrospectively calculated cancer detection rates from NVH referrals to assess whether flexible cystoscopy,an invasive and morbid procedure, remains necessary.Patients and methods: All patients referred to our University teaching hospital on a suspected (“two-week”) cancer pathway with NVH over a 16-week period were included. Clinical and demographic data were collected for a series of 200 patients (96 male, age range 27–92, median 68).Results: Only eight patients had urological malignancy found (two renal and six bladder cancers). Both renal, and four bladder cancers, were identified on imaging prior to flexible cystoscopy. Only two bladder cancers were therefore detected by cystoscopy; one low-risk non-muscle invasive (patient has already been discharged) and one in a patient that was unfit for treatment (died of heart failure). Only seven (3.5%) of the patients were offered the option of not undergoing flexible cystoscopy.Conclusion: Our analyses suggest that flexible cystoscopy is rarely of benefit in patients with NVH. We suggest that patients should be given an accurate risk of bladder cancer diagnosis during the consent process. We advocate that flexible cystoscopy can be avoided for the majority of NVH referrals, particularly in patients without strong risk factors for urothelial cell carcinoma. Avoidance of flexible cystoscopy would reduce patient risks from procedural morbidity, reduce risks of acquiring coronavirus from hospital attendance, and there could be huge reductions in financial and service delivery demands in an overstretched secondary-care service.

scholarly journals Thailand Performance and Best Management Practices that saved lives against Covid-19: a comparison against ten critical countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 119-154
Author(s):  
Jonas Gomes da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Best Management Practices ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Cultural Practices ◽  
Public Information ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Best Management ◽  
Innovative Products ◽  
Start Ups

After 265 days, since the first reported case of Covid-19, the world has reported the lost of almost one million (969.018) precious lives (WORLDOMETERS, 2020). The pandemic is a challenge for all countries, most of them eager to learn from nations that are successful against the virus. In addition, an international survey, published on April/20, by Silva (2020, p. 600), concluded that although no country is prepared to face epidemics and pandemics (NTI, JHU, and EIU, 2019), among the 16 countries investigated, Thailand, Finland, Australia, South Korea, Denmark, and Sweden are cases that Brazil could study so as not to repeat the scenarios of China, USA, Italy, and Spain. Thus, this study investigates the performance and the best management practices adopted in Thailand to save lives against Covid-19, during the first 180 days facing the pandemic. The research is useful for academy, government policymakers and authorities. It is descriptive, with the application of an online questionnaire, bibliographic and documentary research, involving the study of official sites, articles, reports, manuals, and other technical documents. A new indicator was developed (Fatality Total Index), which allowed to identify that among 20 nations with the highest number of fatal cases, the ten most critical are 1st) Mexico; 2nd) Peru; 3rd) Italy; 4th) Ecuador; 5th) Iran; 6th) Chile; 7th) UK; 8th) Belgium; 9th) Colombia; and 10th) Brazil. Some conclusions are: first) Thailand`s FTI180 is the very low, indicating that this country has learned from the lessons of the past, reason by which is the best at saving lives against the Covid-19; Third) for 86 respondents living in Thailand, wear mask, not shake hands, not hug in public, wash hands, and not wearing shoes in the house, were the five most decisive cultural practices that saved lives; Fourth) For 96 respondents living in Thailand, the ten main policy measures adopted by Thailand Government that saved lives against the Covid-19 are: first) international travel control; 2nd) public event cancellations; 3rd) schools closures; 4th) restriction on internal movement; 5th) workplaces closures; 6th) public information campaigns; 7th) effective public-private collaboration; 8th) increase the medical and personal equipment capacity; 9th) support the expansion of testing system, and 10th) wage subsidies for workers; Fifth) to save lives against Covid-19, 28 innovative products or services were identified in Thailand, with majority led by Corporations, Universities, followed by Public Sector, Start Ups, and Others.

scholarly journals How Vietnam is saving lives against Covid-19?

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 738-767
Author(s):  
Jonas Gomes da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Cultural Practices ◽  
Public Information ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
The Public ◽  
Innovative Products ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Start Ups

It complements Silva (2020b) research, which showed that among 108 well-evaluated countries, the top benchmark nations against Covid-19 are Vietnam, Taiwan, and Thailand. For example, on April 16, 2021 around 3,011,574 lives were officially lost by Covid-19, while Taiwan, Vietnam, and Thailand reported respectively only 11, 35, and 97 fatal cases (WORLDOMETERS, 2021). So, this article main aim is to investigate the Vietnam performance and the management practices used to save lives against Covid19. The research uses an online questionnaire, is descriptive with documentary and bibliographic approaches to identify management practices, including Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) adopted against a pandemic. Also the Fatality Total Index (SILVA, 2020b p. 563) was used to compare Vietnam's performance with 43 semifinalist countries. Some results are: 1) 200 NPIs were identified across the world against coronavirus; 2) Among the 44 countries, Vietnam showed the second best performance, after Taiwan; 3) among 107 respondents living in Vietnam, only 5.61% don´t believe that cultural practices are decisive for the low rate of Covid-19 death, while most (94.39%) believe in that. From the group that believe, the most decisive cultural practices were: wear a mask, wash hands, not shake hands, not hug in public and few religious assembly; 4) for 106 respondents living in Vietnam, the ten main policy measures adopted by the National Government that saved lives against the virus are: international travel control, public information campaigns, schools closures, public event cancellations, integration with mass media, restriction on internal movement, effective public-private collaboration, increase the medical and personal equipment capacity, public transport reduction and combat fake news. At the final, ten golden lessons are provided, from 340 policies, measures, programs, projects, innovative products/services identified, with the majority led by the Public Sector (73.5%), followed by Corporations (8.5%), Others (6.5%), Start ups (6.2%), and Universities (5.3%).

scholarly journals Ten golden lessons from Republic of China (Taiwan), the best country to save lives during 300 days battle against Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 425-474
Author(s):  
Jonas Gomes da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Best Management Practices ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Public Information ◽  
National Government ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Unit Structure ◽  
Innovative Products ◽  
One Year

Almost 1.81 million lives were officially lost by Covid-19 (WORLDOMETERS, 2020) until last 31thDecember 2020. It was one year with intense global battle against the pandemic, with most countries eagle to learn from benchmark nations able to save lives. A new methodology developed by Silva (2020b), with fifteen phases, showed that among 108 well-evaluated countries, the top six benchmark countries are from Asia with emphasis on Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand. To complement Silva (2020b) study, this article aims to investigate the performance and the best management practices adopted in Taiwan to save lives, during the first 300 days facing the pandemic. The research is descriptive, uses an online questionnaire with bibliographic and documentary approaches. The Fatality Total Index (FTI) developed by Silva (2020b p. 563) was used to compare Taiwan performance against 43 finalist countries. Some results are: 1) Taiwan`s FTI300 is the lowest (0,0020), confirming that the National Government has learned from the past, and is able to integrate and support main actors of the nation to prevent, prepare and fight against the Covid-19; 2) for 109 respondents living in Taiwan, the ten main policy measures adopted by the National Government that saved lives against the virus are: international travel control (78%), effective public-private collaboration (61%), public information campaigns (52%), integration with mass media (51%), increase the medical and personal equipment capacity (49%), combat fake news (47%), public event cancellations (45%), improve intensive care unit structure (28%), support the expansion of the testing system (20%), and schools closures (16%). At the final, ten golden lessons are described, most of them from the 225 policies, measures, programs, projects, strategies, and innovative products or services identified in Taiwan, with the majority led by Public Sector (56%), Corporations (29%), followed by Others (6%), Start Up (4%) and Universities (4%).

THE WELL-BEING OF MIGRANT WORKERS DURING THE PANDEMIC: RUSSIAN CASE

2021 ◽  
pp. 74-82
Author(s):  
Mikhail B. Denisenko ◽  
◽  
Vladimir I. Mukomel ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Well Being ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Labor Migrants ◽  
International Transport ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
To Come ◽  
Work And Life

This report is devoted to the analysis of the situation of labor migrants in Russia, as well as migrants who were unable to come to Russia after the borders were closed. In what types of economic activity has the decline in employment become particularly painful for migrants? What is their financial situation? How ready are they to leave Russia if transport links are restored? What are their immediate and long-term plans related to work and life in Russia? The second focus of the study is on potential migrants who were unable to enter Russia after international transport links were severed. What is their economic situation at home? How quickly are they going to go to Russia in case of the removal of restrictions on international travel? To what extent will their arrival deter the fear of a coronavirus pandemic? What are their short — and long-term plans for staying in Russia? This report is based on an online survey of 2,695 foreign citizens, as well as a telephone survey (CATI) of 300 migrant workers in the Moscow megalopolis conducted in the first half of June 2020.

scholarly journals The First 100 Days of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Control in Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Quang Thai ◽  
Maia A Rabaa ◽  
Duong Huy Luong ◽  
Dang Quang Tan ◽  
Tran Dai Quang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Mass Communication ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Early Introduction ◽  
The Government

Abstract Background One hundred days after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in Vietnam on 23 January, 270 cases were confirmed, with no deaths. We describe the control measures used by the government and their relationship with imported and domestically acquired case numbers, with the aim of identifying the measures associated with successful SARS-CoV-2 control. Methods Clinical and demographic data on the first 270 SARS-CoV-2 infected cases and the timing and nature of government control measures, including numbers of tests and quarantined individuals, were analyzed. Apple and Google mobility data provided proxies for population movement. Serial intervals were calculated from 33 infector-infectee pairs and used to estimate the proportion of presymptomatic transmission events and time-varying reproduction numbers. Results A national lockdown was implemented between 1 and 22 April. Around 200 000 people were quarantined and 266 122 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests conducted. Population mobility decreased progressively before lockdown. In total, 60% (163/270) of cases were imported; 43% (89/208) of resolved infections remained asymptomatic for the duration of infection. The serial interval was 3.24 days, and 27.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.7%-40.0%) of transmissions occurred presymptomatically. Limited transmission amounted to a maximum reproduction number of 1.15 (95% CI, .·37–2.·36). No community transmission has been detected since 15 April. Conclusions Vietnam has controlled SARS-CoV-2 spread through the early introduction of mass communication, meticulous contact tracing with strict quarantine, and international travel restrictions. The value of these interventions is supported by the high proportion of asymptomatic and imported cases, and evidence for substantial presymptomatic transmission.

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