scholarly journals HAS COUNTRYWIDE LOCKDOWN WORKED AS A FEASIBLE MEASURE IN BENDING THE COVID-19 CURVE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khondoker Nazmoon Nabi ◽  
Md. Robiul Islam
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Compelling Evidence ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters

AbstractIn the absence of any effective vaccine and clinically proven treatment, experts thought that strict lockdown measures could be an effective way to slow down the spread of novel coronavirus. Despite the strict lockdown measures in several developing countries, the number of newly infected cases is getting unbridled as time progresses. This anomaly ignites questions about the effectiveness of the prolonged strict confinement measures. In light of the above view, with an aim to find the answer to this question, trends of four epidemiological parameters: growth factor of daily reported COVID-19 cases, daily incidence proportion, daily cumulative index and effective reproduction number in five developing countries named Bangladesh, Brazil, Chile, Pakistan and South Africa have been analysed meticulously considering the different phases of their national lockdowns. Any compelling evidence has not been found in favor of countrywide lockdown effectiveness in the above-mentioned countries. Numerical results illustrate that stringent nationwide lockdown measures have failed bringing the epidemic threshold (Re) of COVID-19 under unity. In addition, citizens of the aforementioned countries have been struggling with catastrophic socio-economic consequences due to prolonged confinement measures. Our study suggests that a new policy should be proposed for developing countries to battle against future disease outbreaks ensuring a perfect balance between saving lives and confirming livelihoods.

scholarly journals Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Katsushi Kagaya ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Ecological Modelling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters

AbstractBackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December, 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread around the world. Despite the scarcity of publicly available data, scientists around the world have made strides in estimating the magnitude of the epidemic, the basic reproduction number, and transmission patterns. Accumulating evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of the infected individuals with the novel coronavirus show little if any symptoms, which highlights the need to reassess the transmission potential of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory–confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government–chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019–2020 reached values at 3.49 (95%CrI: 3.39–3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95%CrI: 0.81–0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 1906634 (95%CrI: 1373500–2651124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95%CrI: 13.5–26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time–delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03%–0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08–0.17%), respectively, estimates that are several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China during January-February, 2020 using an ecological modelling approach. The power of this approach lies in the ability to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems.

scholarly journals Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractAn outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ∼11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.

scholarly journals The vaccination against COVID-19 in Morocco: a success story in progress

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Success Story ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 is a respiratory sickness that may spread between persons. It is caused by a novel coronavirus that produces an outbreak in Wuhan, China and spread all over the world to become a pandemic. From the appearance of the first case of the new coronavirus in Morocco, Moroccan authorities has spared no effort to promote the health of Moroccans, ahead of that of the country’s economy. On 22 January 2021, 2 million doses, of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine were delivered to Morocco, with a view to vaccinating 1 million Moroccans in a first phase. On 28 January, the campaign started and the King of Morocco was the 1st Moroccan to be vaccinated against the coronavirus. On 27 February 2021, Morocco has received 1 million doses from the Chinese laboratory Sinopharm and 6 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine allowing Morocco to vaccinate several audiences and the general public over the age of 60, and the most vulnerable. Thereafter, the COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people in 31 March 2021 were 115.89 in Israel, 84.01 in the United Arab Emirates, 52.53 in the United Kingdom, 44.93 in the United States, 45.04 in Bahrain, 21.66 in Morocco, 16.44 in Germany, 8.32 in China, 4.72 in India, and 0.44 in South Africa. Also, the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in 01 April 2021 were 55.51% in Israel, 22.12% in the United Arab Emirates, 20.08% in Chile, 16.77% in USA, 15.25% in Serbia, 15.14%in Bahrain, 10.21% in Morocco, 8.94% in Hungary, 8.23% in Turkey, 7.29% in UK, 3.07% in Russia, 2.39% in Brazil, 1.70% in Uruguay, 0.70% in India, and 0.45% in South Africa. This allows Morocco to figure in the top 10 countries fully vaccinated against COVID-19 despite the lack of resources and belonging to developing countries. Finally, our study gives an example to other countries to benefit from the Moroccan experience. Nevertheless, vaccination is only one element of a comprehensive COVID-19 strategy, it must be accompanied by measures to reduce circulating infection and keep them low.

The Transnational Location of Two Leading Evangelical Churches in the Global South

Pneuma ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 390-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Offutt
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Global South ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Personal Networks ◽  
Evangelical Churches ◽  
Pentecostal Churches ◽  
Multiple Levels ◽  
Patterns Of Interaction

AbstractReligion remains critically important in the Global South even as globalization intensifies. As international political and economic structures evolve, transnational religions shift societal locations within countries. These shifts cause changes within religions themselves, altering patterns of interaction that may in turn have political and economic consequences. By examining Iglesia Josue in El Salvador and Rhema Bible Church in South Africa, this article shows that the current leading Pentecostal churches and actors in developing countries are often located in upper-middle-class neighborhoods. Strong institutional and personal networks that stretch across borders transnationally embed such churches at multiple levels. The transnational orientation of leading churches has important implications for the rest of the in-country Pentecostal community.

Evaluating government's communication strategy of the 16 Days of Activism campaign for No Violence Against Women and Children in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 219-241
Author(s):  
Mutambuli J. Hadji
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Violence Against Women ◽  
Diffusion Of Innovation ◽  
School Curriculum ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Gender Based Violence ◽  
Women And Children ◽  
Gender Based

This article aims to evaluate government's communication strategy and citizens' awareness of the 16 Days of Activism for No Violence against Women and Children campaign in Soshanguve, South Africa. The study applied the diffusion of innovation theory because of its ability to assess how communities receive communication about the campaign from various media. Survey method was used to collect data, which was analysed using descriptive statistics. It was found out that mass media and other communication channels were main sources of campaign messages, which help the community to know how to address gender-based violence issues. Notably, this study found that females were more likely to know about the campaign than males. This article recommends that this campaign should be visible throughout the year and there should be more campaigns targeting men, and school curriculum, which educate pupils about the social and economic consequences of GBV.

Critical Insight into the Attributes of Emerging Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in India and Across the World

Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-56
Author(s):  
Gaurav M. Doshi ◽  
Hemen S. Ved ◽  
Ami P. Thakkar
Keyword(s):  
Review Article ◽  
World Health ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Human Contact ◽  
The World ◽  
Critical Insight ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Old Drugs

The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently announced the spread of novel coronavirus (nCoV) globally and has declared it a pandemic. The probable source of transmission of the virus, which is from animal to human and human to human contact, has been established. As per the statistics reported by the WHO on 11th April 2020, data has shown that more than sixteen lakh confirmed cases have been identified globally. The reported cases related to nCoV in India have been rising substantially. The review article discusses the characteristics of nCoV in detail with the probability of potentially effective old drugs that may inhibit the virus. The research may further emphasize and draw the attention of the world towards the development of an effective vaccine as well as alternative therapies. Moreover, the article will help to bridge the gap between the new researchers since it’s the current thrust area of research.

scholarly journals Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Yang ◽  
Valentina Marziano ◽  
Xiaowei Deng ◽  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Synergetic Effect ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
One Year ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractCOVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

scholarly journals Synthesis and immunological evaluation of synthetic peptide based anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingyu Zhao ◽  
Yanan Gao ◽  
Min Xiao ◽  
Xuefei Huang ◽  
Xuanjun Wu
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Peptide ◽  
Spike Protein ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Vaccine Candidates ◽  
Peptide Epitopes ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Immunological Evaluation

For prevention of the coronavirus disease 2019 caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, an effective vaccine is critical. Herein, several potential peptide epitopes from the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 have...

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