Increasing temperature threatens an already endangered coastal dune plant

ABSTRACTClimate change has the potential to reduce the abundance and distribution of species and threaten global biodiversity, but it is typically not listed as a threat in classifying species conservation status. This likely occurs because demonstrating climate change as a threat requires data-intensive demographic information. Moreover, the threat from climate change is often studied in specific biomes, such as polar or arid ones. Other biomes, such as coastal ones, have received little attention, despite being currently exposed to substantial climate change effects. We forecast the effect of climate change on the demography and population size of a federally endangered coastal dune plant (Lupinus tidestromii). We use data from a 14-year demographic study across seven extant populations of this endangered plant. Using model selection, we found that survival and fertility measures responded negatively to temperature anomalies. We then produced forecasts based on stochastic individual based population models that account for uncertainty in demographic outcomes. Despite large uncertainties, we predict that all populations will decline if temperatures increase by 1° Celsius. Considering the total number of individuals across all seven populations, the most likely outcome is a population decline of 90%. Moreover, we predict extinction is certain for one of our seven populations. These results demonstrate that climate change will profoundly decrease the current and future population growth rates of this plant, and its chance of persistence. Thus, our study provides the first evidence that climate change is an extinction threat for a plant species classified as endangered under the USA Endangered Species Act.

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Vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise of the 35th biodiversity hotspot, the Forests of East Australia

Environmental Conservation ◽

10.1017/s037689291500020x ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 43 (1) ◽

pp. 79-89 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

C. BELLARD ◽

C. LECLERC ◽

B. D. HOFFMANN ◽

F. COURCHAMP

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Conservation Status ◽

Biodiversity Hotspot ◽

Future Research ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Wet Tropics ◽

Agricultural Areas

SUMMARYThere is an urgent need to understand how climate change, including sea-level rise, is likely to threaten biodiversity and cause secondary effects, such as agro-ecosystem alteration and human displacement. The consequences of climate change, and the resulting sea-level rise within the Forests of East Australia biodiversity hotspot, were modelled and assessed for the 2070–2099 period. Climate change effects were predicted to affectc. 100000 km2, and a rise in sea level an area of 860 km2; this could potentially lead to the displacement of 20600 inhabitants. The two threats were projected to mainly affect natural and agricultural areas. The greatest conservation benefits would be obtained by either maintaining or increasing the conservation status of areas in the northern (Wet Tropics) or southern (Sydney Basin) extremities of the hotspot, as they constitute about half of the area predicted to be affected by climate change, and both areas harbour high species richness. Increasing the connectivity of protected areas for Wet Tropics and Sydney Basin species to enable them to move into new habitat areas is also important. This study provides a basis for future research on the effects on local biodiversity and agriculture.

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Testing for population decline using maximal linkage disequilibrium blocks

10.1101/703595 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Elise Kerdoncuff ◽

Amaury Lambert ◽

Guillaume Achaz

Keyword(s):

Linkage Disequilibrium ◽

Population Genomics ◽

Conservation Status ◽

Population Decline ◽

Species Conservation ◽

Nucleotide Polymorphisms ◽

Single Nucleotide ◽

Wide Range ◽

Large Populations ◽

Species Population

AbstractOnly 6% of known species have a conservation status. Methods that assess conservation statuses are often based on individual counts and are thus too laborious to be generalized to all species. Population genomics methods that infer past variations in population size are easy to use but limited to the relatively distant past. Here we propose a population genomics approach that tests for recent population decline and may be used to assess species conservation statuses. More specifically, we study Maximal Recombination Free (MRF) blocks, that are segments of a sequence alignment inherited from a common ancestor without recombination. MRF blocks are relatively longer in small than in large populations. We use the distribution of MRF block lengths rescaled by their mean to test for recent population decline. However, because MRF blocks are difficult to detect, we also consider Maximal Linkage Disequilibrium (MLD) blocks, which are runs of single nucleotide polymorphisms compatible with a single tree. We develop a new method capable of inferring a very recent decline (e.g. with a detection power of 50% for populations which size was halved to N, 0.05 ×N generations ago) from rescaled MLD block lengths. Our framework could serve as a basis for quantitative tools to assess conservation status in a wide range of species.

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Cold comfort: Arctic seabirds find refugia from climate change and potential competition in marginal ice zones and fjords

AMBIO ◽

10.1007/s13280-021-01650-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Anne-Sophie Bonnet-Lebrun ◽

Thomas Larsen ◽

Thorkell Lindberg Thórarinsson ◽

Yann Kolbeinsson ◽

Morten Frederiksen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Census Data ◽

Foraging Ecology ◽

Cold Water ◽

Conservation Status ◽

Population Decline ◽

Sea Temperature ◽

Species Dominance ◽

Arctic Seabirds ◽

Brunnich’S Guillemot

AbstractClimate change alters species distributions by shifting their fundamental niche in space through time. Such effects may be exacerbated by increased inter-specific competition if climate alters species dominance where competitor ranges overlap. This study used census data, telemetry and stable isotopes to examine the population and foraging ecology of a pair of Arctic and temperate congeners across an extensive zone of sympatry in Iceland, where sea temperatures varied substantially. The abundance of Arctic Brünnich’s guillemot Uria lomvia declined with sea temperature. Accessibility of refugia in cold water currents or fjords helped support higher numbers and reduce rates of population decline. Competition with temperate Common guillemots Uria aalge did not affect abundance, but similarities in foraging ecology were sufficient to cause competition when resources are limiting. Continued warming is likely to lead to further declines of Brünnich’s guillemot, with implications for conservation status and ecosystem services.

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Preventing Philippine Eagle hunting: what are we missing?

Journal of Threatened Taxa ◽

10.11609/jott.2301.8.13.9505-9511 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (13) ◽

pp. 9505 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jayson Ibanez ◽

Anna Mae Sumaya ◽

Giovanne Tampos ◽

Dennis Salvador

Keyword(s):

Conservation Status ◽

Population Decline ◽

Species Conservation ◽

Conservation Education ◽

Wildlife Crime ◽

Community Based ◽

Habitat Monitoring ◽

In The Wild ◽

Clear And Present Danger ◽

Global Population

Two pieces of information are minimally required to conserve endangered raptor species — (i) an estimate of its remaining global population, and (ii) the main factors responsible for its decline. Data suggest that no more than 400 adult pairs of the Critically Endangered Philippine Eagle could remain in the wild. As to what is causing population decline, shooting and hunting continue to be the primary factor while forest habitat loss is another. This paper reflects on the growing incident of human-caused deaths in Philippine Eagles, prominently on Mindanao Island where estimates suggest more than half of the eagle’s wild population exists. By analyzing data from eagle rescues, surveys, and field monitoring through radio and satellite tracking techniques, this paper shows that shooting and trapping is a “clear and present” danger which may potentially drive the population to extinction even when suitable forest habitats still exist. Cases of death within the last decade show that the nature and/or extent of law enforcement, conservation education, and population and habitat monitoring fall short of being effective deterrents to eagle persecution in the wild. We review emerging theories on wildlife crime and cases of community-based species conservation to justify a holistic and grounded approach to preventing eagle poaching as an alternative to the conservation status quo.

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The Current Status of the World’s Primates: Mapping Threats to Understand Priorities for Primate Conservation

International Journal of Primatology ◽

10.1007/s10764-021-00242-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

David Fernández ◽

Daphne Kerhoas ◽

Andrea Dempsey ◽

Josephine Billany ◽

Gráinne McCabe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Conservation Status ◽

Species Conservation ◽

Iucn Red List ◽

Red List ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Current Status ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

The Status ◽

The Impact

AbstractOver the past decades, primate populations have been declining. Four years ago, >60% of species were listed as threatened. As the rate of loss accelerates and new IUCN assessments are being published, we used IUCN Red List assessments and peer-reviewed literature published within the last 5 yr to evaluate the status of primates globally, by region and by taxonomic group. We also examined the main factors affecting a species’ conservation status to determine if we could predict the status of understudied species. We found that 65% of species are in the top three IUCN Red List categories (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered). Globally, the main threats to primates are Biological Resource Use, including Hunting & Logging, and Agriculture. The impact of these threats varied by region and taxon. Our model showed that Malagasy and Asian primates, and those affected by Agriculture, Human Disturbance, and Climate Change were more likely to be considered at risk of extinction. The model’s predictive probability, however, was low. Our literature analysis showed that some threats, especially climate change and disease, affected more species than indicated by the IUCN Red List. As we move into the next decade, we must continue tackling hunting and agricultural expansion but also be vigilant about emerging threats. We must also aim to regularly test the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, evaluating their long-term adoption and their impact on primates; as well as to increase communication between researchers and applied conservationists to ensure IUCN assessments include current and emerging threats.

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Decline of the Endangered Morro Bay Kangaroo Rat in California

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management ◽

10.3996/102014-jfwm-078 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 237-254 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Christopher P. Kofron ◽

Francis X. Villablanca

Keyword(s):

Endangered Species ◽

Habitat Restoration ◽

Conservation Status ◽

Population Decline ◽

Species Conservation ◽

Field Research ◽

Food Plants ◽

Kangaroo Rat ◽

Optimal Habitat ◽

The U.S

AbstractThe Morro Bay kangaroo rat Dipodomys heermanni morroensis occurs in the vicinity of Morro Bay (specifically in and near Los Osos) in western San Luis Obispo County in coastal central California. It was listed as endangered pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Conservation Act in 1970 and subsequently the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 1973. Field research from the late 1950s to the mid-1980s has documented a rapid population decline. Despite many efforts, researchers have not captured the Morro Bay kangaroo rat since 1986, and the last captive individual died in 1993. We review the biology and conservation status of the Morro Bay kangaroo rat, including taxonomy and genetics, soil type and burrows, history of decline, primary causes of decline, breeding in the wild and in captivity, habitat restoration, and threats. In particular, there are two primary causes of decline. First, development (urban, agricultural, and industrial) has resulted in direct loss of habitat. Second, in the absence of fire, the early seral stages of coastal dune scrub (optimal habitat) have matured to later successional stages of vegetation, which are denser and with substantially fewer annual food plants, and which negatively impact the locomotion of kangaroo rats and change the diversity of the small mammal community with a likely increase in competition. In 2016 only pockets of habitat remain, with optimal habitat comprising an estimated 1% of the historical geographic range. Although researchers have not demonstrated predation by domestic cats, it is likely a major threat and we suspect it has contributed to the decline based upon a review of the literature. In 2011 we observed potential signs of the Morro Bay kangaroo rat at two historical areas, which suggests it may be persisting at extremely low densities in a few isolated colonies. In addition, we could not obtain permission to survey on four private properties with potential habitat. In consideration of the vast loss and fragmentation of its habitat, along with the continuing and pervasive threats, the Morro Bay kangaroo rat is clearly conservation-reliant. We believe that without urgent human intervention, the Morro Bay kangaroo rat will soon become extinct if it is not already.

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The Bramble Cay melomys Melomys rubicola (Rodentia : Muridae): a first mammalian extinction caused by human-induced climate change?

Wildlife Research ◽

10.1071/wr16157 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 44 (1) ◽

pp. 9 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Natalie L. Waller ◽

Ian C. Gynther ◽

Alastair B. Freeman ◽

Tyrone H. Lavery ◽

Luke K.-P. Leung

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Captive Breeding ◽

Conservation Status ◽

Population Decline ◽

Food Resource ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Water Levels ◽

Anthropogenic Climate Change

Aims Sea-level rise is one of the most certain consequences of global warming and is predicted to exert significant adverse effects on wildlife in coastal habitats worldwide. Terrestrial fauna inhabiting low-lying islands are likely to suffer the greatest loss to habitat from sea-level rise and other oceanographic impacts stemming from anthropogenic climate change. Bramble Cay (Maizab Kaur), an ~4ha, low elevation sand cay located in Torres Strait, Australia, supports the only known population of the endangered Bramble Cay melomys Melomys rubicola Thomas, 1924. As a result of a decline in this population noted during previous monitoring to 2004, habitat loss due to erosion of the cay and direct mortality from storm surges were implicated as major threats to this species. This study aimed to confirm the current conservation status of the species, to seek information about the key factor or factors responsible for the population decline and to recover any remaining individuals for a captive insurance population. Methods During three survey periods (December 2011, March 2014 and August–September 2014), a total of 1170 small mammal trap-nights, 60 camera trap-nights, 5h of nocturnal searches and 5h of diurnal searches were undertaken on Bramble Cay. Key results All three survey periods failed to detect any Bramble Cay melomys. The island had experienced a recent, severe reduction in vegetation, which is the primary food resource for the Bramble Cay melomys. Herbaceous cover on the cay decreased from 2.16ha in 2004 to 0.065ha in March 2014 before recovering somewhat to 0.19ha in August–September 2014. Conclusions These results demonstrate that this rodent species has now been extirpated on Bramble Cay. The vegetation decline was probably due to ocean inundation resulting from an increased frequency and intensity of weather events producing extreme high water levels and storm surges, in turn caused by anthropogenic climate change. Implications The loss of the Bramble Cay melomys from Bramble Cay probably represents the first documented mammalian extinction due to human-induced climate change. This event highlights the immediate need to mitigate predicted impacts of sea-level rise and ocean inundation on other vulnerable species occurring on low lying islands and in susceptible coastal zones through captive breeding and reintroduction or other targeted measures.

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