scholarly journals Modeling the impact of racial and ethnic disparities on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics

Author(s):  
Kevin C. Ma ◽  
Tigist F. Menkir ◽  
Stephen Kissler ◽  
Yonatan H. Grad ◽  
Marc Lipsitch

AbstractThe impact of variable infection risk by race and ethnicity on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spread is largely unknown. Here, we fit structured compartmental models to seroprevalence data from New York State and analyze how herd immunity thresholds (HITs), final sizes, and epidemic risk changes across racial and ethnic groups. A proportionate mixing model reduced the overall HIT, but more realistic levels of assortative mixing increased the threshold. Across all models, the burden of infection fell disproportionately on minority populations: in an assortative mixing model fit to Long Island census data, 80% of Hispanics or Latinos were infected when the HIT is reached compared to 33% of non-Hispanic whites. Our findings, which are meant to be illustrative and not best estimates, demonstrate how racial and ethnic disparities can impact epidemic trajectories and result in a dis-proportionate distribution of the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin C Ma ◽  
Tigist F Menkir ◽  
Stephen M Kissler ◽  
Yonatan H Grad ◽  
Marc Lipsitch

Background: The impact of variable infection risk by race and ethnicity on the dynamics of SARS CoV-2 spread is largely unknown. Methods: Here, we fit structured compartmental models to seroprevalence data from New York State and analyze how herd immunity thresholds (HITs), final sizes, and epidemic risk changes across groups. Results: A simple model where interactions occur proportionally to contact rates reduced the HIT, but more realistic models of preferential mixing within groups increased the threshold toward the value observed in homogeneous populations. Across all models, the burden of infection fell disproportionately on minority populations: in a model fit to Long Island serosurvey and census data, 81% of Hispanics or Latinos were infected when the HIT was reached compared to 34% of non-Hispanic whites. Conclusions: Our findings, which are meant to be illustrative and not best estimates, demonstrate how racial and ethnic disparities can impact epidemic trajectories and result in unequal distributions of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Funding: K.C.M. was supported by National Science Foundation GRFP grant DGE1745303. Y.H.G. and M.L. were funded by the Morris-Singer Foundation.


PEDIATRICS ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 112 (Supplement_E1) ◽  
pp. e521-e532
Author(s):  
Laura P. Shone ◽  
Andrew W. Dick ◽  
Cindy Brach ◽  
Kim S. Kimminau ◽  
Barbara J. LaClair ◽  
...  

Background. Elimination of racial and ethnic disparities in health has become a major national goal. The State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) has the potential to reduce disparities among the children who enroll if they exhibit the same disparities that have been documented in previous studies of low-income children. To determine the potential impact of SCHIP on racial and ethnic disparities, it is critical to assess baseline levels of health disparities among children enrolling in SCHIP. Objective. To use data from the Child Health Insurance Research Initiative (CHIRI) to 1) describe the sociodemographic profile of new enrollees in SCHIP in Alabama, Florida, Kansas, and New York; 2) determine if there were differences in health insurance and health care experiences among white, black, and Hispanic SCHIP enrollees before enrollment in SCHIP; and 3) explore whether race or ethnicity, controlled for other factors, affected pre-SCHIP access to health coverage and health care. Setting. SCHIP programs in Alabama, Florida, Kansas, and New York, which together include 26% of SCHIP enrollees nationwide. Design. Telephone interview (mailed survey in Alabama) about the child’s health, health insurance, and health care experiences conducted shortly after SCHIP enrollment to assess experience during the time period before SCHIP. Sample. New SCHIP enrollees (0–17.9 years old in Alabama, Kansas, and New York and 11.5–17.9 years old in Florida). Stratified sampling was performed in Kansas and New York, with results weighted to reflect statewide populations of new SCHIP enrollees. Measures. Sociodemographic characteristics including income, education, employment, and other characteristics of the child and the family, race and ethnicity (white non-Hispanic, black non-Hispanic, and Hispanic [any race]), prior health insurance, health care access and utilization, and health status. Analyses. Bivariate analyses were used to compare baseline measures upon enrollment for white, black, and Hispanic SCHIP enrollees. Multivariate analyses were performed to assess health status and health care access measures (prior insurance, presence of a usual source of care (USC), and use of preventive care), controlling for demographic factors described above. Weighted analyses (where appropriate) were performed by using SPSS, STATA, or SUDAAN. Results. Racial and ethnic composition varied across the SCHIP cohorts studied, with black and Hispanic children comprising the following proportion of enrollees, respectively: Alabama, 33% and <1%; Florida, 16% and 26%; Kansas, 12% and 15%; and New York, 24% and 36%. Black and Hispanic children were more likely to reside in single-parent and lower-income families. With some variation by state, children from minority groups were more likely to report poorer health status than were white children. Relative to white children, children from minority groups in Florida and New York were more likely to have been uninsured for the entire year before SCHIP enrollment. In all states, children from minority groups who had prior coverage were more likely to have previously been enrolled in Medicaid than in private health insurance and were less likely to have had employer-sponsored coverage compared with white children. Except in Alabama, there was a difference in having a USC, with children from minority groups less likely to have had a USC before SCHIP enrollment compared with white children. No consistent pattern of health care utilization before SCHIP was noted across states with respect to race or ethnicity. Findings from multivariate analyses, controlling for sociodemographic factors, generally confirmed that black and Hispanic children were more likely to have lacked insurance or a USC before enrollment in SCHIP and to have poorer health status compared with white children. Conclusions. SCHIP is enrolling substantial numbers of racial and ethnic minority children. There are baseline racial and ethnic disparities among new enrollees in SCHIP, with black and Hispanic children faring worse than white children on many sociodemographic and health system measures, and there are differences among states in the prevalence and magnitude of these disparities. After controlling for sociodemographic factors, these disparities persisted. Implications for Monitoring and Improving SCHIP. SCHIP has the potential to play a critical role in efforts to eliminate racial and ethnic disparities in health among the children it serves. However, study findings indicate that programmatic efforts are necessary to ensure that disparities are not perpetuated. Program effectiveness and outcomes should be monitored by race and ethnicity to ensure equity in access, use, and outcomes across all racial and ethnic groups. Assessing the health characteristics and needs of new SCHIP enrollees can provide a benchmark for evaluating the program’s impact on eliminating racial and ethnic disparities in health and inform service delivery enhancements.


2020 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 9-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Holtgrave ◽  
Meredith A. Barranco ◽  
James M. Tesoriero ◽  
Debra S. Blog ◽  
Eli S. Rosenberg

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (7) ◽  
pp. 1119-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Corl ◽  
Mitchell Levy ◽  
Gary Phillips ◽  
Kathleen Terry ◽  
Marcus Friedrich ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (9) ◽  
pp. 767-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica C. Kaye ◽  
Courtney A. Gushue ◽  
Samantha DeMarsh ◽  
Jonathan Jerkins ◽  
Chen Li ◽  
...  

Background: Racial and ethnic disparities in the provision of end-of-life care are well described in the adult oncology literature. However, the impact of racial and ethnic disparities at end of life in the context of pediatric oncology remains poorly understood. Objective: To investigate associations between end-of-life experiences and race/ethnicity for pediatric patients with cancer. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 321 children with cancer enrolled on a palliative care service at an urban pediatric cancer who died between 2011 and 2015. Results: Compared to white patients, black patients were more likely to receive cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR; odds ratio [OR]: 4.109, confidence interval [CI]: 1.432-11.790, P = .009) and underwent 3.136 (CI: 1.433-6.869, P = .004) CPR events for every 1 white patient CPR event. The remainder of variables related to treatment and end-of-life care were not significantly correlated with race. Hispanic patients were less likely to receive cancer-directed therapy within 28 days prior to death (OR: 0.493, CI: 0.247-0.982, P = .044) as compared to non-Hispanic patients, yet they were more likely to report a goal of cure over comfort as compared to non-Hispanic patients (OR: 3.094, CI: 1.043-9.174, P = .042). The remainder of variables were not found to be significantly correlated with ethnicity. Conclusions: Race and ethnicity influenced select end-of-life variables for pediatric palliative oncology patients treated at a large urban pediatric cancer center. Further multicenter investigation is needed to ascertain the impact of racial/ethnic disparities on end-of-life experiences of children with cancer.


Author(s):  
Dayton G. Thorpe ◽  
Kelsey Lyberger

AbstractWe apply a model developed by The COVID-19 Response Team [S. Flaxman, S. Mishra, A. Gandy, et al., “Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries,” tech. rep., Imperial College London, 2020.] to estimate the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. Across the United States we estimate as of April 18, 2020 the fraction of the population infected was 4.6% [3.6%, 5.8%], 21 times the portion of the population with a positive test result. Excluding New York state, which we estimate accounts for over half of infections in the United States, we estimate an infection rate of 2.3% [2.1%, 2.8%].We include the timing of each state’s implementation of interventions including encouraging social distancing, closing schools, banning public events, and a lockdown / stay-at-home order. We assume fatalities are reported correctly and infer the number and timing of infections based on the infection fatality rate measured in populations that were tested universally for SARS-CoV-2. Underreporting of deaths would drive our estimates to be too low. Reporting of deaths on the wrong day could drive errors in either direction. This model does not include effects of herd immunity; in states where the estimated infection rate is very high - namely, New York - our estimates may be too high.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Chen ◽  
Wei Hou ◽  
Sina Rashidian ◽  
Yu Wang ◽  
Xia Zhao ◽  
...  

AbstractOpioid overdose related deaths have increased dramatically in recent years. Combating the opioid epidemic requires better understanding of the epidemiology of opioid poisoning (OP). To discover trends and patterns of opioid poisoning and the demographic and regional disparities, we analyzed large scale patient visits data in New York State (NYS). Demographic, spatial, temporal and correlation analyses were performed for all OP patients extracted from the claims data in the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) from 2010 to 2016, along with Decennial US Census and American Community Survey zip code level data. 58,481 patients with at least one OP diagnosis and a valid NYS zip code address were included. Main outcome and measures include OP patient counts and rates per 100,000 population, patient level factors (gender, age, race and ethnicity, residential zip code), and zip code level social demographic factors. The results showed that the OP rate increased by 364.6%, and by 741.5% for the age group > 65 years. There were wide disparities among groups by race and ethnicity on rates and age distributions of OP. Heroin and non-heroin based OP rates demonstrated distinct temporal trends as well as major geospatial variation. The findings highlighted strong demographic disparity of OP patients, evolving patterns and substantial geospatial variation.


2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 694-699 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas W. Villelli ◽  
Hong Yan ◽  
Jian Zou ◽  
Nicholas M. Barbaro

OBJECTIVESeveral similarities exist between the Massachusetts health care reform law of 2006 and the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The authors’ prior neurosurgical research showed a decrease in uninsured surgeries without a significant change in surgical volume after the Massachusetts reform. An analysis of the payer-mix status and the age of spine surgery patients, before and after the policy, should provide insight into the future impact of the ACA on spine surgery in the US.METHODSUsing the Massachusetts State Inpatient Database and spine ICD-9-CM procedure codes, the authors obtained demographic information on patients undergoing spine surgery between 2001 and 2012. Payer-mix status was assigned as Medicare, Medicaid, private insurance, uninsured, or other, which included government-funded programs and workers’ compensation. A comparison of the payer-mix status and patient age, both before and after the policy, was performed. The New York State data were used as a control.RESULTSThe authors analyzed 81,821 spine surgeries performed in Massachusetts and 248,757 in New York. After 2008, there was a decrease in uninsured and private insurance spine surgeries, with a subsequent increase in the Medicare and “other” categories for Massachusetts. Medicaid case numbers did not change. This correlated to an increase in surgeries performed in the age group of patients 65–84 years old, with a decrease in surgeries for those 18–44 years old. New York showed an increase in all insurance categories and all adult age groups.CONCLUSIONSAfter the Massachusetts reform, spine surgery decreased in private insurance and uninsured categories, with the majority of these surgeries transitioning to Medicare. Moreover, individuals who were younger than 65 years did not show an increase in spine surgeries, despite having greater access to health insurance. In a health care system that requires insurance, the decrease in private insurance is primarily due to an increasing elderly population. The Massachusetts model continues to show that this type of policy is not causing extreme shifts in the payer mix, and suggests that spine surgery will continue to thrive in the current US health care system.


2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (7) ◽  
pp. 993-1017
Author(s):  
Min Zhan ◽  
Xiaoling Xiang ◽  
William Elliott

This study examines the association between educational loans and college graduation rates, with a focus on differences by race and ethnicity. Data come from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Results from the event history analyses indicate that educational loans are positively related to college graduation rates, but only up to a point (about US$19,753). Although this nonlinear relationship holds true among White, Black, and Hispanic students, there are differences in the level of loans where its effect turns negative on graduate rates. There is little evidence overall that educational loans reduce racial and ethnic disparities in college graduation.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document