scholarly journals Simulating the impact of different vaccination policies on the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wan Yang ◽  
Sasikiran Kandula ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Immune Response ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Vaccine Dose ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Mass Vaccination ◽  
List Type ◽  
Good Strategy ◽  
The Impact

PurposeTo analyze potential COVID-19 epidemic outcomes in New York City under different SARS-CoV-2 virus circulation scenarios and vaccine rollout policies from early Jan 2021 to end of June 2021.Key findingsIn anticipation of the potential arrival and dominance of the more infectious SARS-CoV-2 variant:Mass-vaccination would be critical to mitigating epidemic severity (26-52% reduction in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, compared to no vaccination, provided the new UK variant supplants currently circulating variants).Prioritizing key risk groups for earlier vaccination would lead to greater reductions in hospitalizations and deaths than infections. Thus, in general this would be a good strategy.Current vaccination prioritization policy is suboptimal. To avert more hospitalizations and deaths, mass-vaccination of all individuals 65 years or older should be done as soon as possible. For groups listed in the same phase, 65+ year-olds should be given first priority ahead of others.Available vaccine doses should be given to the next priority groups as soon as possible without awaiting hesitant up-stream groups.While efficacy of vaccination off-protocol is unknown, provided immune response following a first vaccine dose persists, delaying the 2nd vaccine dose by ∼1 month (i.e. administer the two doses 8 weeks apart) can substantially reduce infections, hospitalizations, and deaths compared to the 3-week apart regimen. Across all scenarios tested here, delaying the 2nd vaccine dose leads to the largest reduction in severe epidemic outcomes (e.g. hospitalizations and deaths). Therefore, to protect as many people as possible, this strategy should be considered if rapid increases in infections, hospitalization or deaths and/or shortages in vaccines were to occur.

scholarly journals 4099 Principles of Statistical Education for Translational Scientists in the Age of Rigor, Reproducibility, and Reporting

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (s1) ◽  
pp. 50-51
Author(s):  
Emilia Bagiella ◽  
Paul Christos ◽  
Mimi Kim ◽  
Shing Lee ◽  
Roger Vaughan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Flipped Classroom ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Deep Understanding ◽  
List Type ◽  
Scientific Rigor ◽  
City Area ◽  
The Impact

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: To describe principles, best practices, and techniques recommended to instill deep understanding of the application and interpretation of statistical techniques and statistical inference among translational scientists and trainees, that best support the concepts of scientific Rigor, Reproducibility and Reporting. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Each of the six New York City Area Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Research Design (BERD) resources have strong educational programs, novel curricular components, and creative strategies, implemented by award winning educators. To capitalize on shared knowledge, innovation, and resources, the six teams formed the New York City Area BERD Collaborative (NYC-ABC) comprised of BERD resources from Mt. Sinai, Cornell, Einstein, Columbia, Rockefeller, and NYU. The collaborative suggests principles, concepts, tools and approaches to support the concepts of scientific Rigor, Reproducibility and Reporting in translational science. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Principles: Value of team science approach and including biostatisticians early and often.Carefully designing experiments to reduce bias and increase precision.Trainees’ focus is often on “statistical significance” and the p-value. Consequences of data dredging/p-hacking, and the impact of sample size and other factors on statistical significance.Emphasizing the effect size and answering the scientific hypothesis when reporting results.Statistical code used to produce results should be well annotated and raw data posted online to enhance reproducibility. Approaches: Incorporate effective multiple modalities (i.e. didactic, demonstrative, hands on workshops, applications, and tools).Approach from “the drivers’ seat” perspective, rather than strictly mathematical.Endorse flipped classroom approachDISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Like any complex discipline, biostatistical education can be approached from several dimensions, but it remains essential to focus on fundamental goals of science. We remind our trainees that the goal of science is to create knowledge, not to “find significance”. Deep understanding of inferential methods and proper interpretation of results are key. CONFLICT OF INTEREST DESCRIPTION: None.

The Impact of Customer Loyalty and Restaurant Sanitation Grades on Revisit Intention and the Importance of Narrative Information: The Case of New York Restaurant Sanitation Grading System

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Gyung Kim ◽  
Hyunjoo Yang ◽  
Anna S. Mattila
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Customer Loyalty ◽  
York City ◽  
Letter Grades ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Revisit Intentions ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loyal Customers

New York City launched a restaurant sanitation letter grade system in 2010. We evaluate the impact of customer loyalty on restaurant revisit intentions after exposure to a sanitation grade alone, and after exposure to a sanitation grade plus narrative information about sanitation violations (e.g., presence of rats). We use a 2 (loyalty: high or low) × 4 (sanitation grade: A, B, C, or pending) between-subjects full factorial design to test the hypotheses using data from 547 participants recruited from Amazon MTurk who reside in the New York City area. Our study yields three findings. First, loyal customers exhibit higher intentions to revisit restaurants than non-loyal customers, regardless of sanitation letter grades. Second, the difference in revisit intentions between loyal and non-loyal customers is higher when sanitation grades are poorer. Finally, loyal customers are less sensitive to narrative information about sanitation violations.

scholarly journals The Impact of Covid‐19 on Certified Nursing Assistants in New York City: A Cross‐Sectional Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (S2) ◽  
pp. 41-42
Author(s):  
Sanjay Pinto ◽  
Madeline Sterling ◽  
Faith Wiggins ◽  
Rebecca Hall ◽  
Chenjuan Ma
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Nursing Assistants ◽  
Certified Nursing Assistants ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact

Abstract 718: The Impact of COVID-19 on breast oncology care practices during the pandemic in New York City: A single center retrospective study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danielle Seidman ◽  
Brittney S. Zimmerman ◽  
Lauren Margetich ◽  
Serena Tharakan ◽  
Natalie Berger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Retrospective Study ◽  
York City ◽  
Single Center ◽  
Oncology Care ◽  
Care Practices ◽  
The Impact

Outcomes for hospitalized cancer patients with COVID-19 during the height of pandemic in New York City.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 10572-10572
Author(s):  
Amelia Sawyers ◽  
Margaret Chou ◽  
Paul Johannet ◽  
Nicholas Gulati ◽  
Yingzhi Qian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
York City ◽  
Measurable Disease ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
History Of Cancer ◽  
Active Cancer

10572 Background: Several reports have suggested that cancer patients are at increased risk for contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and suffering worse coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. However, little is known about the impact of cancer status on presentation and outcome. Here, we report on the association between cancer status and survival in hospitalized patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the height of pandemic in New York City. Methods: Of the 6,724 patients who were hospitalized at NYU Langone Health (3/16/20 - 7/31/20) and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 580 had either active cancer (n = 221) or a history of cancer (n = 359). Patients were classified as having active malignancy if they either received treatment within six months of their COVID-19 diagnosis or they had measurable disease documented at the time of their hospitalization. Patients were categorized as having a history of cancer if there was no evidence of measurable disease or there were no treatments administered within six months of their COVID-19 diagnosis. We compared the baseline clinicodemographic characteristics and hospital courses of the two groups, and the relationship between cancer status and the rate of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), use of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and all-cause mortality. Results: There was no differences between the two groups in their baseline laboratory results associated with COVID-19 infection, incidence of venous thromboembolism, or incidence of severe COVID-19. Active cancer status was not associated with the rate of ICU admission ( P = 0.307) or use of IMV ( P = 0.236), but was significantly associated with worse all-cause mortality in both univariate and multivariate analysis with ORs of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.04-2.09; P = 0.028) and 1.71 (95% CI: 1.12-2.63; P = 0.014), respectively. Conclusions: Active cancer patients had worse survival outcomes compared to patients with a history of cancer despite similar COVID-19 disease characteristics in the two groups. Our data suggest that cancer care should continue with minimal interruptions during the pandemic to bring about response and remission as soon as possible. Additionally, these findings support the growing body of evidence that malignancy portends worse COVID-19 prognosis, and demonstrate that the risk may even apply to those without active disease.

Abstract MP30: The Health and Economic Impact of a Sugar Sweetened Beverage Tax in New York City: A Modeling Study

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 141 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel D Bu ◽  
Stella S Yi ◽  
Heesun Eom ◽  
Rienna Russo ◽  
Brandon Bellows ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
New York City ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
York City ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Health Improvement ◽  
The Impact

Background: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are currently the single largest source of added sugar in the US diet, and consumption in New York City (NYC) remains high. Evidence suggests that a high sugar consumption increases the risk of coronary heart disease. To date, excise taxes on SSB have been implemented in several US jurisdictions. While reductions in SSB consumption have been reported in several places where the SSB tax was implemented, it is unclear what the long term health and economic impact an SSB tax could have within the demographically and socioeconomically diverse NYC. In addition, the impact of varying tax structures remains unknown. Objective: To project the cardiovascular health outcomes and cost-savings of variations on the penny-per-ounce SSB tax structure (simulating a half-penny to two-penny range) using a validated microsimulation model of cardiovascular disease. Methods: The Simulations for Health Improvement and Equity (SHINE) CVD Model was used to estimate the lifetime direct medical costs (2019 USD) and effectiveness of SSB tax from a healthcare sector perspective. Population demographics and health profiles were estimated using data from the 2013-2014 NYC Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. CVD risk factor trajectories and risk of incident CVD events were derived from six pooled prospective U.S. cohorts. Policy effects and price elasticity were derived from recent meta-analyses. SSB tax was modeled to directly affect incidence rates of CVD events and was derived from variations of the penny-per-ounce tax scheme. Costs were discounted at 3%. Results: Compared to the non-policy situation, the SHINE CVD model projected that an SSB tax would prevent 29,341 (95% CI: 11,747-46,935) coronary heart disease (CHD) events at a half penny-per-ounce rate, 37,034 (95% CI: 19,336-54,732), at one penny-per-ounce, and 68,846 CHD events (95% CI: 51,306- 86,386) at a two-pennies-per-ounce rate over the simulated lifetimes of the NYC population. Total cost savings over this time period ranged from $662 million (95% CI $584-$741 million), $714 million (95% CI: $620-$808 million), and $1.03 billion (95% CI $0.92 - $1.16 billion), or $13.5 million/year, $14.6 million/year, $21.0 million/year for half-penny, one-penny, and two-pennies-per-ounce taxes respectively. Conclusion: Using a computer simulation model, we showed how different increments of the penny-per-ounce SSB tax could result in substantial benefits within the NYC population in terms of CVD outcomes and overall health care cost savings. Results from the SHINE CVD model may inform the ongoing policymaking efforts.

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