scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana and the impact of public health interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia K. Ofori ◽  
Jessica S. Schwind ◽  
Kelly L. Sullivan ◽  
Benjamin J Cowling ◽  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
National Level ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Case Count ◽  
Lower Case ◽  
The Impact

The study characterized the transmission of COVID-19 in Ghana by estimating the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) and exploring the effect of various public health interventions at the national and regional levels. The median Rt for Ghana and six out of sixteen regions dropped from greater than 1 in March 2020 to less than 1 in September but increased above 1 in January 2021. The relaxation of movement restrictions and religious gatherings were not associated with increased Rt in the regions with lower case burdens. However, Rt increased in most regions after schools were reopened in January 2021. In a regression analysis, we estimated that the per-capita cumulative case count increased with population size. Findings indicated the public health interventions reduced the Rt at the national level while at the regional levels, the Rt fluctuated, and the extent of fluctuation varied across regions.

scholarly journals Evolution of disease transmission rate during the course of SARS-COV-2: Patterns and determinants

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Blanca Gallego
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Region Of Interest ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Impact

Abstract To date, many studies have argued the potential impact of public health interventions on flattening the epidemic curve of SARS-CoV-2. Most of them have focused on simulating the impact of interventions in a region of interest by manipulating contact patterns and key transmission parameters to reflect different scenarios. Our study looks into the evolution of the daily effective reproduction number during the epidemic via a stochastic transmission model. We found this measure (although model-dependent) provides an early signal of the efficacy of containment measures. This epidemiological parameter when updated in real-time can also provide better predictions of future outbreaks. Our results found a substantial variation in the effect of public health interventions on the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 transmission over time and across countries, that could not be explained solely by the timing and number of the adopted interventions. This suggests that further knowledge about the idiosyncrasy of their implementation and effectiveness is required. Although sustained containment measures have successfully lowered growth in disease transmission, more than half of the 101 studied countries failed to maintain the effective reproduction number close to or below 1. This resulted in continued growth in reported cases. Finally, we were able to predict with reasonable accuracy which countries would experience outbreaks in the next 30 days.

scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of SARS-COV-2 in China: impact of public health interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenbao Wang ◽  
Yiqin Chen ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
Ping Cai ◽  
Ye He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Actual Growth ◽  
Global Threat ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCOVID-19 has become a global pandemic. However, the impact of the public health interventions in China needs to be evaluated. We established a SEIRD model to simulate the transmission trend of China. In addition, the reduction of the reproductive number was estimated under the current forty public health interventions policies. Furthermore, the infection curve, daily transmission replication curve, and the trend of cumulative confirmed cases were used to evaluate the effects of the public health interventions. Our results showed that the SEIRD curve model we established had a good fit and the basic reproductive number is 3.38 (95% CI, 3.25–3.48). The SEIRD curve show a small difference between the simulated number of cases and the actual number; the correlation index (H2) is 0.934, and the reproductive number (R) has been reduced from 3.38 to 0.5 under the current forty public health interventions policies of China. The actual growth curve of new cases, the virus infection curve, and the daily transmission replication curve were significantly going down under the current public health interventions. Our results suggest that the current public health interventions of China are effective and should be maintained until COVID-19 is no longer considered a global threat.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Australia: Epidemiology Report 27: Fortnightly reporting period ending 11 October 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
New South ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Daily Average ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Case Count

Nationally, there was a continuing downward trend in notifications of COVID-19. The daily average number of cases for this reporting period was 14 compared to an average of 23 cases per day in the previous fortnight. There were 192 cases of COVID-19 and no deaths this fortnight, bringing the cumulative case count to 27,344 and 892 deaths. While the majority of cases in this reporting period were from Victoria (60%; 116/192), this represents a continued decrease in cases in this state resulting from the public health interventions. During this fortnight, 66% of all cases (127/192) were reported as locally acquired, with the majority reported from Victoria (108/127). The highest proportion of overseas-acquired cases were reported in New South Wales (75%; 38/51), followed by Western Australia (22%; 11/51). Although testing rates declined, they remain high at 9.2 tests per week per 1,000 persons. There was variability in the testing rate by jurisdiction, with testing rates depending on the epidemic context. The overall positivity rate for the reporting period was 0.05%, with Victoria reporting a positivity rate of 0.08% for this reporting period. In all other jurisdictions the positivity rate was ≤ 0.06%.

Abstract 314: The Impact of City-Level Public Health Interventions on Increased Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

Circulation ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 140 (Suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey L Blewer ◽  
Andrew F Ho ◽  
Nur Shahidah Binte Ahamad ◽  
Alexander E White ◽  
Pin Pin Pek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation ◽  
Sudden Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Healthcare Facility ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (B-CPR) may increase a victim’s chance of survival from sudden cardiac arrest (SCA), but B-CPR rates are low in many communities. Few studies have examined the association of city-wide public health interventions on B-CPR. Objectives: We sought to assess whether there is variation in B-CPR by intervention and location of arrest. We hypothesized that implementation of dispatch-assisted CPR (DA-CPR), CPR/AED training, and a first responder mobile application (myResponder) would increase B-CPR by two-fold. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of adult, non-traumatic SCAs from the Singapore registry (4/2010-12/2016). Interventions included DA-CPR (7/2012 - present), CPR/AED training (04/2014 - present), and myResponder (4/2015 - present). Using logistic regression, we modeled the likelihood of receiving B-CPR by increased number of interventions over time. We examined these effects together, in the home, and public accounting for patient-level confounding. Results: From 2010-2016, the Singapore registry contained 12,546 SCA events. Excluding pediatric, EMS witnessed, and healthcare facility arrests, 7,476 were analyzed. Of these, mean age was 66±15 and 68% were male. B-CPR was administered in 45% of the events and varied by location (home: 43% v public: 52%). With implementation of DA-CPR, likelihood of B-CPR increased (OR: 3.5 (2.9-4.2) p<0.01) compared to no intervention; with implementation of CPR/AED training, likelihood of B-CPR increased compared to no intervention (OR: 5.8 (4.8-7.0), p<0.01). Lastly, implementation of myResponder resulted in a 7.09 increased likelihood of B-CPR compared to no intervention (OR: 7.1 (5.9-8.4), p<0.01). Variation was seen when examining likelihood of B-CPR by all interventions compared to no intervention, in the home (OR: 8.7 (7.0-10.7)) and the public (OR: 4.0 (2.9-5.6)). Survival increased, corresponding to the increase in B-CPR. Conclusion: City-level public health interventions increased the likelihood of layperson B-CPR, while variation was seen in the home and public. Understanding the impact of public health interventions may shed light on strategies to increase B-CPR and inform targeted initiatives to improve survival from SCA.

scholarly journals Evolution of disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic: patterns and determinants

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Blanca Gallego
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEpidemic models are being used by governments to inform public health strategies to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. They simulate potential scenarios by manipulating model parameters that control processes of disease transmission and recovery. However, the validity of these parameters is challenged by the uncertainty of the impact of public health interventions on disease transmission, and the forecasting accuracy of these models is rarely investigated during an outbreak. We fitted a stochastic transmission model on reported cases, recoveries and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection across 101 countries. The dynamics of disease transmission was represented in terms of the daily effective reproduction number ($$R_t$$ R t ). The relationship between public health interventions and $$R_t$$ R t was explored, firstly using a hierarchical clustering algorithm on initial $$R_t$$ R t patterns, and secondly computing the time-lagged cross correlation among the daily number of policies implemented, $$R_t$$ R t , and daily incidence counts in subsequent months. The impact of updating $$R_t$$ R t every time a prediction is made on the forecasting accuracy of the model was investigated. We identified 5 groups of countries with distinct transmission patterns during the first 6 months of the pandemic. Early adoption of social distancing measures and a shorter gap between interventions were associated with a reduction on the duration of outbreaks. The lagged correlation analysis revealed that increased policy volume was associated with lower future $$R_t$$ R t (75 days lag), while a lower $$R_t$$ R t was associated with lower future policy volume (102 days lag). Lastly, the outbreak prediction accuracy of the model using dynamically updated $$R_t$$ R t produced an average AUROC of 0.72 (0.708, 0.723) compared to 0.56 (0.555, 0.568) when $$R_t$$ R t was kept constant. Monitoring the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t during an epidemic is an important complementary piece of information to reported daily counts, recoveries and deaths, since it provides an early signal of the efficacy of containment measures. Using updated $$R_t$$ R t values produces significantly better predictions of future outbreaks. Our results found variation in the effect of early public health interventions on the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t over time and across countries, which could not be explained solely by the timing and number of the adopted interventions.

The Impact of Public Health Interventions on Delaying and Mitigating against Replacement by SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianhong Wu ◽  
Francesca Scarabel ◽  
Bushra Majeed ◽  
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi ◽  
James Orbinski
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Syphilis epidemiology and public health interventions in Western Australia from 1991 to 2009

Sexual Health ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kellie S. H. Kwan ◽  
Carolien M. Giele ◽  
Heath S. Greville ◽  
Carole A. Reeve ◽  
P. Heather Lyttle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
Aboriginal People ◽  
Congenital Syphilis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Sex With Men ◽  
Notification Data ◽  
The Impact

Objectives To describe the epidemiology of congenital and infectious syphilis during 1991–2009, examine the impact of public health interventions and discuss the feasibility of syphilis elimination among Aboriginal people in Western Australia (WA). Methods: WA congenital and infectious syphilis notification data in 1991–2009 and national infectious syphilis notification data in 2005–2009 were analysed by Aboriginality, region of residence, and demographic and behavioural characteristics. Syphilis public health interventions in WA from 1991–2009 were also reviewed. Results: During 1991–2009, there were six notifications of congenital syphilis (50% Aboriginal) and 1441 infectious syphilis notifications (61% Aboriginal). During 1991–2005, 88% of notifications were Aboriginal, with several outbreaks identified in remote WA. During 2006–2009, 62% of notifications were non-Aboriginal, with an outbreak in metropolitan men who have sex with men. The Aboriginal : non-Aboriginal rate ratio decreased from 173 : 1 (1991–2005) to 15 : 1 (2006–2009). Conclusions: These data demonstrate that although the epidemiology of syphilis in WA has changed over time, the infection has remained endemic among Aboriginal people in non-metropolitan areas. Given the continued public health interventions targeted at this population, the limited success in eliminating syphilis in the United States and the unique geographical and socioeconomic features of WA, the elimination of syphilis seems unlikely in this state.

scholarly journals A window of opportunity for intensifying testing and tracing efforts to prevent new COVID-19 outbreaks due to more transmissible variants

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (7/8) ◽  
pp. 329-338
Author(s):  
Jianhong Wu ◽  
Francesca Scarabel ◽  
Zachary McCarthy ◽  
Yanyu Xiao ◽  
Nicholas H Ogden
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Large Outbreak ◽  
Restrictive Measures

Background: When public health interventions are being loosened after several days of decline in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, it is of critical importance to identify potential strategies to ease restrictions while mitigating a new wave of more transmissible variants of concern (VOCs). We estimated the necessary enhancements to public health interventions for a partial reopening of the economy while avoiding the worst consequences of a new outbreak, associated with more transmissible VOCs. Methods: We used a transmission dynamics model to quantify conditions that combined public health interventions must meet to reopen the economy without a large outbreak. These conditions are those that maintain the control reproduction number below unity, while accounting for an increase in transmissibility due to VOC. Results: We identified combinations of the proportion of individuals exposed to the virus who are traced and quarantined before becoming infectious, the proportion of symptomatic individuals confirmed and isolated, and individual daily contact rates needed to ensure the control reproduction number remains below unity. Conclusion: Our analysis indicates that the success of restrictive measures including lockdown and stay-at-home orders, as reflected by a reduction in number of cases, provides a narrow window of opportunity to intensify case detection and contact tracing efforts to prevent a new wave associated with circulation of more transmissible VOCs.

Can We Promote Public Health and Generate Return on Our Investment?

Pained ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 99-102
Author(s):  
Michael D. Stein ◽  
Sandro Galea
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Teenage Pregnancy ◽  
Return On Investment ◽  
National Level ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Sweetened Beverages ◽  
Curative Care ◽  
Improve Health

This chapter looks at how the country’s health investment remains resolutely focused on curative care. Perhaps people spend more on cure than they do on prevention because they believe keeping people healthy is too expensive. But is this true? An analysis set out to assess the return on investment for high-income countries that adopt efforts to improve health. The authors found that the median return on investment for public health interventions was 14 to 1—that is, for every dollar invested, it yields the same dollar back and another 14. They also found that the more these interventions were established at the wider, national level, the higher the return, rising up to about 40 to 1 for the best investments. These interventions include vaccination programs, taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages, building better cities to reduce falls, and early youth interventions to limit teenage pregnancy and delinquency. In other words, these are classic efforts to promote the public’s health by shaping the conditions in which people live.

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