scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of SARS-COV-2 in China: impact of public health interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenbao Wang ◽  
Yiqin Chen ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
Ping Cai ◽  
Ye He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Actual Growth ◽  
Global Threat ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCOVID-19 has become a global pandemic. However, the impact of the public health interventions in China needs to be evaluated. We established a SEIRD model to simulate the transmission trend of China. In addition, the reduction of the reproductive number was estimated under the current forty public health interventions policies. Furthermore, the infection curve, daily transmission replication curve, and the trend of cumulative confirmed cases were used to evaluate the effects of the public health interventions. Our results showed that the SEIRD curve model we established had a good fit and the basic reproductive number is 3.38 (95% CI, 3.25–3.48). The SEIRD curve show a small difference between the simulated number of cases and the actual number; the correlation index (H2) is 0.934, and the reproductive number (R) has been reduced from 3.38 to 0.5 under the current forty public health interventions policies of China. The actual growth curve of new cases, the virus infection curve, and the daily transmission replication curve were significantly going down under the current public health interventions. Our results suggest that the current public health interventions of China are effective and should be maintained until COVID-19 is no longer considered a global threat.

scholarly journals Effective mitigation strategy in early stage of COVID-19 pandemic in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yue Yu ◽  
Chen Xu ◽  
Hu-Wen Wang ◽  
Rui-Jie Chang ◽  
Yin-Qiao Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Epidemic Control ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Global Pandemic

Abstract In the past five months, success in control the national epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been witnessed in China. The implementation of public health measures accounts for the success which include different interventions in the early or later stages of the outbreak. It is clear that although not all measures were universally effective worldwide, their achievements have been significant. More solidarity is needed to deal with this global pandemic with more learning and understanding. Understanding which of the public health interventions implemented in China were effective may provide ideas for international epidemic control.

scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana and the impact of public health interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia K. Ofori ◽  
Jessica S. Schwind ◽  
Kelly L. Sullivan ◽  
Benjamin J Cowling ◽  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
National Level ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Case Count ◽  
Lower Case ◽  
The Impact

The study characterized the transmission of COVID-19 in Ghana by estimating the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) and exploring the effect of various public health interventions at the national and regional levels. The median Rt for Ghana and six out of sixteen regions dropped from greater than 1 in March 2020 to less than 1 in September but increased above 1 in January 2021. The relaxation of movement restrictions and religious gatherings were not associated with increased Rt in the regions with lower case burdens. However, Rt increased in most regions after schools were reopened in January 2021. In a regression analysis, we estimated that the per-capita cumulative case count increased with population size. Findings indicated the public health interventions reduced the Rt at the national level while at the regional levels, the Rt fluctuated, and the extent of fluctuation varied across regions.

Abstract 314: The Impact of City-Level Public Health Interventions on Increased Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

Circulation ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 140 (Suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey L Blewer ◽  
Andrew F Ho ◽  
Nur Shahidah Binte Ahamad ◽  
Alexander E White ◽  
Pin Pin Pek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation ◽  
Sudden Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Healthcare Facility ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (B-CPR) may increase a victim’s chance of survival from sudden cardiac arrest (SCA), but B-CPR rates are low in many communities. Few studies have examined the association of city-wide public health interventions on B-CPR. Objectives: We sought to assess whether there is variation in B-CPR by intervention and location of arrest. We hypothesized that implementation of dispatch-assisted CPR (DA-CPR), CPR/AED training, and a first responder mobile application (myResponder) would increase B-CPR by two-fold. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of adult, non-traumatic SCAs from the Singapore registry (4/2010-12/2016). Interventions included DA-CPR (7/2012 - present), CPR/AED training (04/2014 - present), and myResponder (4/2015 - present). Using logistic regression, we modeled the likelihood of receiving B-CPR by increased number of interventions over time. We examined these effects together, in the home, and public accounting for patient-level confounding. Results: From 2010-2016, the Singapore registry contained 12,546 SCA events. Excluding pediatric, EMS witnessed, and healthcare facility arrests, 7,476 were analyzed. Of these, mean age was 66±15 and 68% were male. B-CPR was administered in 45% of the events and varied by location (home: 43% v public: 52%). With implementation of DA-CPR, likelihood of B-CPR increased (OR: 3.5 (2.9-4.2) p<0.01) compared to no intervention; with implementation of CPR/AED training, likelihood of B-CPR increased compared to no intervention (OR: 5.8 (4.8-7.0), p<0.01). Lastly, implementation of myResponder resulted in a 7.09 increased likelihood of B-CPR compared to no intervention (OR: 7.1 (5.9-8.4), p<0.01). Variation was seen when examining likelihood of B-CPR by all interventions compared to no intervention, in the home (OR: 8.7 (7.0-10.7)) and the public (OR: 4.0 (2.9-5.6)). Survival increased, corresponding to the increase in B-CPR. Conclusion: City-level public health interventions increased the likelihood of layperson B-CPR, while variation was seen in the home and public. Understanding the impact of public health interventions may shed light on strategies to increase B-CPR and inform targeted initiatives to improve survival from SCA.

scholarly journals Evolution of disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic: patterns and determinants

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Blanca Gallego
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEpidemic models are being used by governments to inform public health strategies to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. They simulate potential scenarios by manipulating model parameters that control processes of disease transmission and recovery. However, the validity of these parameters is challenged by the uncertainty of the impact of public health interventions on disease transmission, and the forecasting accuracy of these models is rarely investigated during an outbreak. We fitted a stochastic transmission model on reported cases, recoveries and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection across 101 countries. The dynamics of disease transmission was represented in terms of the daily effective reproduction number ($$R_t$$ R t ). The relationship between public health interventions and $$R_t$$ R t was explored, firstly using a hierarchical clustering algorithm on initial $$R_t$$ R t patterns, and secondly computing the time-lagged cross correlation among the daily number of policies implemented, $$R_t$$ R t , and daily incidence counts in subsequent months. The impact of updating $$R_t$$ R t every time a prediction is made on the forecasting accuracy of the model was investigated. We identified 5 groups of countries with distinct transmission patterns during the first 6 months of the pandemic. Early adoption of social distancing measures and a shorter gap between interventions were associated with a reduction on the duration of outbreaks. The lagged correlation analysis revealed that increased policy volume was associated with lower future $$R_t$$ R t (75 days lag), while a lower $$R_t$$ R t was associated with lower future policy volume (102 days lag). Lastly, the outbreak prediction accuracy of the model using dynamically updated $$R_t$$ R t produced an average AUROC of 0.72 (0.708, 0.723) compared to 0.56 (0.555, 0.568) when $$R_t$$ R t was kept constant. Monitoring the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t during an epidemic is an important complementary piece of information to reported daily counts, recoveries and deaths, since it provides an early signal of the efficacy of containment measures. Using updated $$R_t$$ R t values produces significantly better predictions of future outbreaks. Our results found variation in the effect of early public health interventions on the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t over time and across countries, which could not be explained solely by the timing and number of the adopted interventions.

The Impact of Public Health Interventions on Delaying and Mitigating against Replacement by SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianhong Wu ◽  
Francesca Scarabel ◽  
Bushra Majeed ◽  
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi ◽  
James Orbinski
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Syphilis epidemiology and public health interventions in Western Australia from 1991 to 2009

Sexual Health ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kellie S. H. Kwan ◽  
Carolien M. Giele ◽  
Heath S. Greville ◽  
Carole A. Reeve ◽  
P. Heather Lyttle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
Aboriginal People ◽  
Congenital Syphilis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Sex With Men ◽  
Notification Data ◽  
The Impact

Objectives To describe the epidemiology of congenital and infectious syphilis during 1991–2009, examine the impact of public health interventions and discuss the feasibility of syphilis elimination among Aboriginal people in Western Australia (WA). Methods: WA congenital and infectious syphilis notification data in 1991–2009 and national infectious syphilis notification data in 2005–2009 were analysed by Aboriginality, region of residence, and demographic and behavioural characteristics. Syphilis public health interventions in WA from 1991–2009 were also reviewed. Results: During 1991–2009, there were six notifications of congenital syphilis (50% Aboriginal) and 1441 infectious syphilis notifications (61% Aboriginal). During 1991–2005, 88% of notifications were Aboriginal, with several outbreaks identified in remote WA. During 2006–2009, 62% of notifications were non-Aboriginal, with an outbreak in metropolitan men who have sex with men. The Aboriginal : non-Aboriginal rate ratio decreased from 173 : 1 (1991–2005) to 15 : 1 (2006–2009). Conclusions: These data demonstrate that although the epidemiology of syphilis in WA has changed over time, the infection has remained endemic among Aboriginal people in non-metropolitan areas. Given the continued public health interventions targeted at this population, the limited success in eliminating syphilis in the United States and the unique geographical and socioeconomic features of WA, the elimination of syphilis seems unlikely in this state.

The Economics of Infectious Diseases

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharina Hauck
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Health System Strengthening ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Research Needs ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Economics can make immensely valuable contributions to our understanding of infectious disease transmission and the design of effective policy responses. The one unique characteristic of infectious diseases makes it also particularly complicated to analyze: the fact that it is transmitted from person to person. It explains why individuals’ behavior and externalities are a central topic for the economics of infectious diseases. Many public health interventions are built on the assumption that individuals are altruistic and consider the benefits and costs of their actions to others. This would imply that even infected individuals demand prevention, which stands in conflict with the economic theory of rational behavior. Empirical evidence is conflicting for infected individuals. For healthy individuals, evidence suggests that the demand for prevention is affected by real or perceived risk of infection. However, studies are plagued by underreporting of preventive behavior and non-random selection into testing. Some empirical studies have shown that the impact of prevention interventions could be far greater than one case prevented, resulting in significant externalities. Therefore, economic evaluations need to build on dynamic transmission models in order to correctly estimate these externalities. Future research needs are significant. Economic research needs to improve our understanding of the role of human behavior in disease transmission; support the better integration of economic and epidemiological modeling, evaluation of large-scale public health interventions with quasi-experimental methods, design of optimal subsidies for tackling the global threat of antimicrobial resistance, refocusing the research agenda toward underresearched diseases; and most importantly to assure that progress translates into saved lives on the ground by advising on effective health system strengthening.

scholarly journals Impact of Public Health Interventions on Seasonal Influenza Activity During the COVID-19 Outbreak in Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyunju Lee ◽  
Heeyoung Lee ◽  
Kyoung-Ho Song ◽  
Eu Suk Kim ◽  
Jeong Su Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Influenza B ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
National Response ◽  
Influenza Activity ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was introduced in Korea early with a large outbreak in mid-February. We reviewed the public health interventions used during the COVID-19 outbreak and describe the impact on seasonal influenza activity in Korea. Methods National response strategies, public health interventions and daily COVID-19–confirmed cases in Korea were reviewed during the pandemic. National influenza surveillance data were compared between 7 sequential seasons. Characteristics of each season, including rate of influenza-like illness (ILI), duration of epidemic, date of termination of epidemic, distribution of influenza virus strain, and hospitalization, were analyzed. Results After various public health interventions including enforced public education on hand hygiene, cough etiquette, staying at home with respiratory symptoms, universal mask use in public places, refrain from nonessential social activities, and school closures the duration of the influenza epidemic in 2019/2020 decreased by 6–12 weeks and the influenza activity peak rated 49.8 ILIs/1000 visits compared to 71.9–86.2 ILIs/1000 visits in previous seasons. During the period of enforced social distancing from weeks 9–17 of 2020, influenza hospitalization cases were 11.9–26.9-fold lower compared with previous seasons. During the 2019/2020 season, influenza B accounted for only 4%, in contrast to previous seasons in which influenza B accounted for 26.6–54.9% of all cases. Conclusions Efforts to activate a high-level national response not only led to a decrease in COVID-19 but also a substantial decrease in seasonal influenza activity. Interventions applied to control COVID-19 may serve as useful strategies for prevention and control of influenza in upcoming seasons.

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