Internet-based health survey on loneliness and sleep-related problems among the working-age population in Japan during COVID-19

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been linked to a rise in loneliness. Loneliness is associated with sleep-related problems, which in turn can be a risk factor for various psychiatric disorders. However, it is unclear whether loneliness is linked to sleep-related problems during the pandemic. Here, we studied the association between loneliness and sleep-related problems during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan. Methods A total of 33,302 individuals who indicated they were employed were surveyed online. The survey responses of 27,036 participants were analyzed. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses. Results Of those analyzed, 2,750 (10.2%) experienced feelings of loneliness. Further, sleep-related problems were significantly more common among those who felt lonely both in the short term (more than 3 days) and the long term (more than 3 months). The OR was much weaker after adjusting for factors related to interpersonal connections, such as family and friendships, than after adjusting for factors related to socioeconomic status. Conclusions Loneliness may be a risk factor for sleep-related problems in the COVID-19 pandemic. Having connections with family and friends may have a moderating effect on the occurrence of sleep-related problems. Keywords Loneliness, sleep, COVID-19

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Predicting Incidence of Long-term Care Insurance Certification in Japan with the Kihon Checklist for Frailty Screening Tool: Analysis of Local Government Survey Data

10.21203/rs.3.rs-60249/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kumiko Ito ◽

Hisashi Kawai ◽

Harukazu Tsuruta ◽

Shuichi Obuchi

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Local Government ◽

Long Term Care ◽

Multiple Logistic Regression ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Care ◽

Specificity And Sensitivity ◽

Long Term Care Insurance ◽

Level 1

Abstract Background: Predicting incidence of long-term care insurance (LTCI) certification in the short term is of increasing importance in Japan. The present study examined whether the Kihon Checklist (KCL) can be used to predict incidence of LTCI certification (care level 1 or higher) in the short term among older Japanese persons.Methods: In 2015, the local government in Tokyo, Japan, distributed the KCL to all individuals older than 65 years who had not been certified as having a disability or who had already been certified as requiring support level 1–2 according to LTCI system. We also collected LTCI certification data within the 3 months after collecting the KCL data. The data of 17785 respondents were analyzed. First, we selected KCL items strongly associated with incidence of LTCI certification, using stepwise forward-selection multiple logistic regression. Second, we conducted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses for three conditions (1: Selected KCL items, 2: The main 20 KCL items (nos. 1–20), 3: All 25 KCL items). Third, we estimated specificity and sensitivity for each condition.Results: During a 3-month follow-up, 81 (0.5%) individuals required new LTCI certification. Eight KCL items were selected by multiple logistic regression as predictive of certification. The area under the ROC curve in the three conditions was 0.92–0.93, and specificity and sensitivity for all conditions were greater than 80%.Conclusions: Three KCL conditions predicted short-term incidence of LTCI certification. This suggests that KCL items may be used to screen for the risk of incident LTCI certification.

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Predicting incidence of long-term care insurance certification in Japan with the Kihon Checklist for frailty screening tool: analysis of local government survey data

BMC Geriatrics ◽

10.1186/s12877-020-01968-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Kumiko Ito ◽

Hisashi Kawai ◽

Harukazu Tsuruta ◽

Shuichi Obuchi

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Local Government ◽

Long Term Care ◽

Multiple Logistic Regression ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Care ◽

Specificity And Sensitivity ◽

Long Term Care Insurance ◽

Level 1

Abstract Background Predicting incidence of long-term care insurance (LTCI) certification in the short term is of increasing importance in Japan. The present study examined whether the Kihon Checklist (KCL) can be used to predict incidence of LTCI certification (care level 1 or higher) in the short term among older Japanese persons. Methods In 2015, the local government in Tokyo, Japan, distributed the KCL to all individuals older than 65 years who had not been certified as having a disability or who had already been certified as requiring support level 1–2 according to LTCI system. We also collected LTCI certification data within the 3 months after collecting the KCL data. The data of 17,785 respondents were analyzed. First, we selected KCL items strongly associated with incidence of LTCI certification, using stepwise forward-selection multiple logistic regression. Second, we conducted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses for three conditions (1: Selected KCL items, 2: The main 20 KCL items (nos. 1–20), 3: All 25 KCL items). Third, we estimated specificity and sensitivity for each condition. Results During a 3-month follow-up, 81 (0.5%) individuals required new LTCI certification. Eight KCL items were selected by multiple logistic regression as predictive of certification. The area under the ROC curve in the three conditions was 0.92–0.93, and specificity and sensitivity for all conditions were greater than 80%. Conclusions Three KCL conditions predicted short-term incidence of LTCI certification. This suggests that KCL items may be used to screen for the risk of incident LTCI certification.

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Predicting Incidence of Long-term Care Insurance Certification in Japan with the Kihon Checklist for Frailty Screening Tool: Analysis of Local Government Survey Data

10.21203/rs.3.rs-60249/v3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kumiko Ito ◽

Hisashi Kawai ◽

Harukazu Tsuruta ◽

Shuichi Obuchi

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Local Government ◽

Long Term Care ◽

Multiple Logistic Regression ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Care ◽

Specificity And Sensitivity ◽

Long Term Care Insurance ◽

Level 1

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Russia's falling population cannot meet labour needs

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db265439 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

Structural Changes ◽

Labour Force ◽

Short Term ◽

Federal Funds ◽

Content Type ◽

Working Age ◽

Social Transfers ◽

Working Age Population ◽

Digital Gap

Significance Demographic decline now appears inevitable, leading to a smaller, less productive working-age population. In addition to short-term disruptions caused by pandemic-related restrictions, lasting structural changes in the labour market are becoming evident, prompted by shifts in consumption patterns, rising demand for higher-skilled labour and greater remote working. Impacts Higher long-term unemployment will increase the need for social transfers, putting a further strain on federal funds. The ageing labour force will need retraining to shore up productivity levels. Greater remote working will increase the digital gap between higher- and lower-paid workers.

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Predicting Incidence of Long-term Care Insurance Certification in Japan with the Kihon Checklist for Frailty Screening Tool: Analysis of Local Government Survey Data

10.21203/rs.3.rs-60249/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kumiko Ito ◽

Hisashi Kawai ◽

Harukazu Tsuruta ◽

Shuichi Obuchi

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Local Government ◽

Long Term Care ◽

Multiple Logistic Regression ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Care ◽

Specificity And Sensitivity ◽

Long Term Care Insurance ◽

Level 1

Abstract Background Predicting incidence of long-term care insurance (LTCI) certification in the short term is of increasing importance in Japan. The present study examined whether the Kihon Checklist (KCL) can be used to predict incidence of LTCI certification (care level 1 or higher) in the short term among older Japanese persons. Methods In 2015, the local government in Tokyo, Japan, distributed the KCL to all individuals older than 65 years who had not been certified as having a disability or who had already been certified as requiring support level 1–2 according to LTCI system. We also collected LTCI certification data within the 3 months after collecting the KCL data. The data of 17785 respondents were analyzed. First, we selected KCL items strongly associated with incidence of LTCI certification, using stepwise forward-selection multiple logistic regression. Second, we conducted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses for three conditions (1: Selected KCL items, 2: The main 20 KCL items (nos. 1–20), 3: All 25 KCL items). Third, we estimated specificity and sensitivity for each condition. Results During a 3-month follow-up, 81 (0.5%) individuals required new LTCI certification. Eight KCL items were selected by multiple logistic regression as predictive of certification. The area under the ROC curve in the three conditions was 0.92–0.93, and specificity and sensitivity for all conditions were greater than 80%. Conclusions Three KCL conditions predicted short-term incidence of LTCI certification. This suggests that KCL items may be used to screen for the risk of incident LTCI certification.

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Pension Reform in Russia: Assessing the Susceptibility of GDP Production to a Shift in the Number of the Working-Age Population

Economics and Management ◽

10.35854/1998-1627-2019-9-80-86 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 80-86

Author(s):

T. P. Skufina ◽

S. V. Baranov

Keyword(s):

Pension Reform ◽

Fixed Capital ◽

Economic Effects ◽

Pension Scheme ◽

Retirement Age ◽

Working Age ◽

Working Age Population ◽

Long Term Forecasting ◽

The Impact

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.

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Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13095024 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 5024

Author(s):

Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽

María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽

José Luis Miralles-Quirós

Keyword(s):

Risk Factor ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Oil Price ◽

Short Term ◽

Environmental Indices ◽

Long Run ◽

Green Investment ◽

Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

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An Insight on the Use of Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis to Estimate Association between Risk Factor and Disease Occurrence

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/15.1.22 ◽

1986 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

pp. 22-29 ◽

Cited By ~ 34

Author(s):

J. LEE

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Risk Factor ◽

Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Multiple Logistic Regression ◽

Disease Occurrence

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Returning home to die: Circular labour migration and mortality in South Africa 1

Scandinavian Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1080/14034950701355619 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 35 (69_suppl) ◽

pp. 35-44 ◽

Cited By ~ 119

Author(s):

Samuel J. Clark ◽

Mark A. Collinson ◽

Kathleen Kahn ◽

Kyle Drullinger ◽

Stephen M. Tollman

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Terminal Illness ◽

Event History Analysis ◽

Historical Period ◽

Short Term ◽

History Analysis ◽

Working Age

Aim: To examine the hypothesis that circular labour migrants who become seriously ill while living away from home return to their rural homes to convalesce and possibly to die. Methods: Drawing on longitudinal data collected by the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system in rural northeastern South Africa between 1995 and 2004, discrete time event history analysis is used to estimate the likelihood of dying for residents, short-term returning migrants, and long-term returning migrants controlling for sex, age, and historical period. Results: The annual odds of dying for short-term returning migrants are generally 1.1 to 1.9 times (depending on period, sex, and age) higher than those of residents and long-term returning migrants, and these differences are generally highly statistically significant. Further supporting the hypothesis is the fact that the proportion of HIV/TB deaths among short-term returning migrants increases dramatically as time progresses, and short-term returning migrants account for an increasing proportion of all HIV/TB deaths. Conclusions: This evidence strongly suggests that increasing numbers of circular labour migrants of prime working age are becoming ill in the urban areas where they work and coming home to be cared for and eventually to die in the rural areas where their families live. This shifts the burden of caring for them in their terminal illness to their families and the rural healthcare system with significant consequences for the distribution and allocation of health care resources.

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Predictive Value of Technical Throwing Skills on Nomination Status in Youth and Long-Term Career Attainment in Handball

Sports Medicine - Open ◽

10.1186/s40798-021-00397-5 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Till Koopmann ◽

Franziska Lath ◽

Dirk Büsch ◽

Jörg Schorer

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

National Level ◽

Age Groups ◽

Age Group ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

Chi Square ◽

Career Attainment ◽

Future Performance ◽

Younger Age

Abstract Background Research on talent in sports aims to identify predictors of future performance. This study retrospectively investigated 1) relationships between young handball field players’ technical throwing skills and (a) their potential nomination to youth national teams and (b) their long-term career attainment 10 years later, and 2) associations between nomination status and career attainment. Results Results from retrospectively predicting nomination status and career attainment using logistic regression analyses show that technical throwing skills were partly able to explain players’ nomination status (Nagelkerke R2: females 9.2%, males 13.1%) and career attainment (Nagelkerke R2: 9.8% for female players). Here, variables throwing velocity and time on exercise showed statistically significant effects. In addition, nomination status and career attainment were shown to be associated using chi-square tests (w of .37 and .23 for female and male players, respectively) and nomination status as a predictor increased the prediction of career attainment remarkably (Nagelkerke R2: females 20.3%, males 12.7%). Conclusions Given these results, basic technical throwing skills may serve rather as a prerequisite in this age group on national level, emphasizing its importance already on lower levels and in younger age groups. Furthermore, advantages from entering the national TID system early especially for females are discussed.

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