A Mathematical Model for Stability Analysis of Covid like Epidemic/Endemic/Pandemic

Health Authorities ◽

Public Health Authorities ◽

The transmission and spread of infectious disease like Covid-19 occurs through horizontal and vertical mode. The causative pathogens for such kind of disease may be bacterium, protozoa, virus or toxin. The infectious diseases like AIDS, SARS, MARS, Polio Plague, Bubonic Plague and Covid-19 have destroyed the social and economic structure of world population. The world scientific community adopts different mechanisms to model and analyze the population dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. Mathematical Modelling is the most effective tool to take the informed decision about the containment, control and eradication of the pandemic. The main focus of Government and public health authorities is to design the strategy in destabilizing the spread and impact of the infections. A series of models-SIR, SEIR, SEIRD, SEAIHCRD, SAUQAR has been under study to combat the Covid-19 since its inception. An effort has been made to design the model based on reproduction number, endemic equilibrium and disease-free equilibrium to curtail the impact of Covid-19 through stability analysis methods- Hurwitz stability criteria, Lyapunov Method and Linear Stability Analysis

Discernment between deliberate and natural infectious disease outbreaks

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268806007011 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 135 (3) ◽

pp. 353-371 ◽

Cited By ~ 34

Author(s):

Z. F. DEMBEK ◽

M. G. KORTEPETER ◽

J. A. PAVLIN

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Infectious Disease ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Historical Events ◽

Accidental Release ◽

Health Authorities ◽

Public Health Authorities ◽

Outbreak Investigations

Public health authorities should be vigilant to the potential for outbreaks deliberately caused by biological agents (bioterrorism). Such events require a rapid response and incorporation of non-traditional partners for disease investigation and outbreak control. The astute application of infectious disease epidemiological principles can promote an enhanced index of suspicion for such events. We discuss epidemiological indicators that should be considered during outbreak investigations, and also examine their application during bioterrorism incidents, an accidental release of an agent, outbreaks of infections that were alleged to have been deliberately initiated, and a model scenario. The Grunow & Finke epidemiological assessment tool is used to examine these historical events and the model scenario. The results received from this analysis, coupled with an understanding of epidemiological clues to unnatural events, and knowledge of how to manage such events, can aid in the improved response and resolution of epidemics.

The Impact of Organisational Characteristics of Staff and Facility on Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Care Homes: a Systematic Review

10.21203/rs.3.rs-861018/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ann Liljas ◽

Lenke Morath ◽

Bo Burström ◽

Pär Schön ◽

Janne Agerholm

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Systematic Review ◽

Older People ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Care Homes ◽

Facility Design ◽

Facility Size ◽

The Impact ◽

Nurse Aides

Abstract Background: Infectious disease outbreaks are common in care homes, often with substantial impact on the rates of infection and mortality of the residents, who primarily are older people vulnerable to infections. There is growing evidence that organisational characteristics of staff and facility might play a role in infection outbreaks however such evidence have not previously been systematically reviewed. Therefore, this systematic review aims to examine the impact of facility and staff characteristics on the risk of infectious disease outbreaks in care homes.Methods: Five databases were searched. Studies considered for inclusion were of any design reporting on an outbreak of any infectious disease in one or more care homes providing care for primarily older people with original data on: facility size, facility location (urban/rural), facility design, use of temporary hired staff, staff compartmentalizing, residence of staff, and/or nursing aides hours per resident. Retrieved studies were screened, assessed for quality, and analysed employing a narrative synthesis.Results: Sixteen studies (8 cohort studies, 6 cross-sectional studies, 2 case-control) were included from the search which generated 10,424 unique records. COVID-19 was the most commonly reported cause of outbreak (n=11). The other studies focused on influenza, respiratory and gastrointestinal outbreaks. Most studies reported on the impact of facility size (n=11) followed by facility design (n=4), use of temporary hired staff (n=3), facility location (n=2), staff compartmentalizing (n=2), nurse aides hours (n=2) and residence of staff (n=1). Findings suggest that urban location and larger facility size may be associated with greater risks of an infectious outbreak. Additionally, the risk of a larger outbreak seems lower in larger facilities. Whilst staff compartmentalizing may be associated with lower risk of an outbreak, staff residing in highly infected areas may be associated with greater risk of outbreak. The influence of facility design, use of temporary staff, and nurse aides hours remains unclear.Conclusions: This systematic review suggests that larger facilities have greater risks of infectious outbreaks, yet the risk of a larger outbreak seems lower in larger facilities. Due to lack of robust findings the impact of facility and staff characteristics on infectious outbreaks remain largely unknown.PROSPERO: CRD42020213585

Mental health services for infectious disease outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review

Psychological Medicine ◽

10.1017/s0033291720003888 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 50 (15) ◽

pp. 2498-2513

Author(s):

Jing-Li Yue ◽

Wei Yan ◽

Yan-Kun Sun ◽

Kai Yuan ◽

Si-Zhen Su ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mental Health ◽

Infectious Disease ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Mental Illnesses ◽

Stepped Care ◽

Research Database ◽

The Public ◽

Culturally Adapted ◽

AbstractThe upsurge in the number of people affected by the COVID-19 is likely to lead to increased rates of emotional trauma and mental illnesses. This article systematically reviewed the available data on the benefits of interventions to reduce adverse mental health sequelae of infectious disease outbreaks, and to offer guidance for mental health service responses to infectious disease pandemic. PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, PsycINFO, WHO Global Research Database on infectious disease, and the preprint server medRxiv were searched. Of 4278 reports identified, 32 were included in this review. Most articles of psychological interventions were implemented to address the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, followed by Ebola, SARS, and MERS for multiple vulnerable populations. Increasing mental health literacy of the public is vital to prevent the mental health crisis under the COVID-19 pandemic. Group-based cognitive behavioral therapy, psychological first aid, community-based psychosocial arts program, and other culturally adapted interventions were reported as being effective against the mental health impacts of COVID-19, Ebola, and SARS. Culturally-adapted, cost-effective, and accessible strategies integrated into the public health emergency response and established medical systems at the local and national levels are likely to be an effective option to enhance mental health response capacity for the current and for future infectious disease outbreaks. Tele-mental healthcare services were key central components of stepped care for both infectious disease outbreak management and routine support; however, the usefulness and limitations of remote health delivery should also be recognized.

Risk Communication and Crisis Communication in Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Germany: What Is Being Done, and What Needs to be Done

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness ◽

10.1017/dmp.2014.36 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 206-211 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Petra Dickmann ◽

Nadine Biedenkopf ◽

Sam Keeping ◽

Markus Eickmann ◽

Stephan Becker

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Infectious Disease ◽

Risk Communication ◽

Crisis Communication ◽

Contextual Information ◽

International Health ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

World Health ◽

Health Authorities ◽

Public Health Authorities

AbstractObjectiveRisk communication plays a central role in the management of infectious disease. The World Health Organization's 2005 International Health Regulations have highlighted the need for countries to strengthen their capacities in this area to ensure effective responses to public health emergencies. We surveyed laboratories, hospitals, and public health institutions in Germany to detail the current situation regarding risk communication and crisis management and to identify which areas require further development.MethodsA mixed methods approach was adopted. An initial questionnaire was distributed to relevant persons in laboratories and hospitals, and semistructured interviews were conducted with selected participants. Representatives from state public health authorities, federal agencies, and media also were interviewed to add additional contextual information to the questionnaire responses.ResultsBased on the responses received, the universal sense among key stakeholders was that risk communication and crisis communication measures must be improved. Collaborative working was a consistent theme, with participants suggesting that a partnering strategy could help to improve performance. This approach could be achieved through better coordination between groups, for example, through a knowledge-sharing policy.ConclusionsMore research is needed on how such collaboration might be implemented, along with a general conceptual framework for risk communication to underpin the overall strategy. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-6)

LIFE HISTORIES OFFER A CLUE TO THE FUTURE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE ON CORAL REEFS

The ANZIAM Journal ◽

10.1017/s1446181112000314 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 54 (1-2) ◽

pp. 64-73

Author(s):

L. YAKOB ◽

P. J. MUMBY

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Coral Reefs ◽

Life Histories ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Infection Model ◽

Demographic Rates ◽

Caribbean Coral Reefs ◽

AbstractIncreased frequency and severity of stressors associated with climate change are drastically altering ecosystems. Caribbean coral reefs differ markedly from just 30 years ago, with much restructuring attributable to infectious disease outbreaks. Using a classic epidemiological approach, we demonstrate how density-dependent demographic rates serve as a mechanism for intrinsic coral resilience to population perturbations arising from disturbances such as disease. We explore the impact of allowing infection status to influence demographic rates and ascertain outbreak thresholds that are corroborated by epizootic patterns observed in the field. We discuss how our threshold calculations may provide metrics of coral epizootic early warning systems. Integrating our infection model with equations describing the interspecific competition for space between coral and macroalgae, we provide new mechanistic understanding of the influence that coral life history dynamism and infectious disease have on the changing face of these threatened ecosystems.

The Impact of and Government Planning and Responses to Pandemics for People with Disability: A Rapid Review

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18126505 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (12) ◽

pp. 6505

Author(s):

Adyya Gupta ◽

Anne Kavanagh ◽

George Disney

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

General Population ◽

Grey Literature ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Rapid Review ◽

Risk Of Infection ◽

People With Disability ◽

The Government ◽

Objective—To collate evidence on (1) the risk of infection for people with disability during infectious disease outbreaks and/or pandemics and (2) government responses and pandemic plans for people with disability. Methods—Through two rapid reviews, relevant peer-reviewed studies and grey literature published from 2002 onwards in the English language were identified. Data were synthesised narratively. Results—Aim 1: Of the 680 studies, two studies were included in the review. No grey literature was eligible for inclusion. The evidence regarding risk was inconclusive. Aim 2: Of the 50 studies, three peer-review studies, along with four government reports were included. The literature largely reported on measures being taken to maximise the prevention of transmission of COVID-19 for the general population, with only a few programs including people with disability. Conclusion—Overall, there is inconclusive evidence on the risk of infection for people with disability during infectious disease outbreaks and/or pandemics and the government preparedness and planning for disease outbreaks and/or pandemics largely exclude people with disability. From a population health perspective, during disease outbreaks and pandemics, including the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the general population, it is important for governments to include people with disability in their pandemic planning and response.

The impact of unplanned school closure on children’s social contact: Rapid evidence review

10.31219/osf.io/2txsr ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Samantha Brooks ◽

Louise Smith ◽

Rebecca Webster ◽

Dale Weston ◽

Lisa Woodland ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Infectious Disease ◽

Relevant Literature ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Social Contact ◽

School Closure ◽

School Closures ◽

Spread Of Infection ◽

Background Emergency school closures are often used as public health interventions during infectious disease outbreaks in an attempt to minimise the spread of infection. However, if children continue to mix with others outside the home during the closures, these measures are unlikely to be effective. ObjectivesThis review aimed to summarise existing literature on children’s activities and contacts made outside the home during unplanned school closures.MethodsWe searched four databases from inception to February 2020 for relevant literature. Main findings were extracted. Results3,343 citations were screened and 19 included in the review. Activities and social contacts appeared to decrease during closures but contact was still common. All studies reported children leaving the house or being looked after by non-household members. There was some evidence that older child age and parental disagreement with closure were predictive of children leaving the house, and mixed evidence regarding the relationship between infection status and leaving the home. Parental agreement with closure was generally high, but some parents disagreed due to perceived low risk of infection and practical issues regarding childcare and financial impact. ConclusionsEvidence suggests that many children continue to leave the house and mix with others during school closures despite public health recommendations to avoid social contact. This review of behaviour during unplanned school closures could be used to improve infectious disease modelling.

The impact of unplanned school closure on children’s social contact: Rapid evidence review

10.1101/2020.03.17.20037457 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Samantha K. Brooks ◽

Louise E. Smith ◽

Rebecca K. Webster ◽

Dale Weston ◽

Lisa Woodland ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Infectious Disease ◽

Relevant Literature ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Social Contact ◽

School Closure ◽

School Closures ◽

Spread Of Infection ◽

AbstractBackgroundEmergency school closures are often used as public health interventions during infectious disease outbreaks in an attempt to minimise the spread of infection. However, if children continue to mix with others outside the home during the closures, these measures are unlikely to be effective.ObjectivesThis review aimed to summarise existing literature on children’s activities and contacts made outside the home during unplanned school closures.MethodsWe searched four databases from inception to February 2020 for relevant literature. Main findings were extracted.Results3,343 citations were screened and 19 included in the review. Activities and social contacts appeared to decrease during closures but contact was still common. All studies reported children leaving the house or being looked after by non-household members. There was some evidence that older child age and parental disagreement with closure were predictive of children leaving the house, and mixed evidence regarding the relationship between infection status and leaving the home. Parental agreement with closure was generally high, but some parents disagreed due to perceived low risk of infection and practical issues regarding childcare and financial impact.ConclusionsEvidence suggests that many children continue to leave the house and mix with others during school closures despite public health recommendations to avoid social contact. This review of behaviour during unplanned school closures could be used to improve infectious disease modelling.

Smiles behind the masks: A systematic review and narrative synthesis exploring how family members of seriously ill or dying patients are supported during infectious disease outbreaks

Palliative Medicine ◽

10.1177/02692163211029515 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 026921632110295

Author(s):

Melissa J Bloomer ◽

Catherine Walshe

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Systematic Review ◽

Family Members ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Control Measures ◽

Narrative Synthesis ◽

Dying Patients ◽

The Impact ◽

Seriously Ill

Background: Infection control measures during infectious disease outbreaks can have significant impacts on seriously ill and dying patients, their family, the patient-family connection, coping, grief and bereavement. Aim: To explore how family members of patients who are seriously ill or who die during infectious disease outbreaks are supported and cared for during serious illness, before and after patient death and the factors that influence family presence around the time of death. Design: Systematic review and narrative synthesis. Data sources: CINAHL, Medline, APA PsycInfo and Embase were searched from inception to June 2020. Forward and backward searching of included papers were also undertaken. Records were independently assessed against inclusion criteria. Included papers were assessed for quality, but none were excluded. Findings: Key findings from 14 papers include the importance of communication and information sharing, as well as new ways of using virtual communication. Restrictive visiting practices were understood, but the impact of these restrictions on family experience cannot be underestimated, causing distress and suffering. Consistent advice and information were critical, such as explaining personal protective equipment, which family found constraining and staff experienced as affecting interpersonal communication. Cultural expectations of family caregiving were challenged during infectious disease outbreaks. Conclusion: Learning from previous infectious disease outbreaks about how family are supported can be translated to the current COVID-19 pandemic and future infectious disease outbreaks. Consistent, culturally sensitive and tailored plans should be clearly communicated to family members, including when any restrictions may be amended or additional supports provided when someone is dying.

On the relationships between COVID-19 and extended urbanization

Dialogues in Human Geography ◽

10.1177/2043820620934209 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 213-216 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Creighton Connolly ◽

S Harris Ali ◽

Roger Keil

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

Emerging Infectious Disease ◽

Ecological Relationships ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship

This commentary focuses on the relationship between extensive forms of urbanization and emerging infectious disease, using empirical examples from the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, it examines the role of shifting urban-ecological relationships, infrastructures, and governance dynamics in both giving rise to, and mitigating, the impact of infectious disease outbreaks.