scholarly journals COVID-19 clusters in schools: frequency, size, and transmission rates from crowdsourced exposure reports

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Tupper ◽  
Shraddha Pai ◽  
Caroline Colijn ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Size ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Variable Rate ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
The Us ◽  
Variable Transmission ◽  
Index Cases

The role of schools in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, with some claiming they are an important driver of the pandemic and others arguing that transmission in schools is negligible. School cluster reports that have been collected in various jurisdictions are a source of data about transmission in schools. These reports consist of the name of a school, a date, and the number of students known to be infected. We provide a simple model for the frequency and size of clusters in this data, based on random arrivals of index cases at schools who then infect their classmates with a highly variable rate, fitting the overdispersion evident in the data. We fit our model to reports for several jurisdictions in the US and Canada, providing estimates of mean and dispersion for cluster size, whilst factoring in imperfect ascertainment. Our parameter estimates are robust to variations in ascertainment fraction. We use these estimates in three ways: i) to explore how uneven the distribution of cases is among different clusters in different jurisdictions (that is, what fraction of cases are in the 20% largest clusters), ii) to estimate how long it will be until we see a cluster a given size in jurisdiction, and iii) to determine the distribution of instantaneous transmission rate β among different index case. We show how these latter distribution can be used in simulations of school transmission where we explore the effect of different interventions, in the context of highly variable transmission rates.

scholarly journals Decline in global transmission rates of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ethan Romero-Severson ◽  
Nick Hengartner ◽  
Grant Meadors ◽  
Ruian Ke
Keyword(s):  
Particle Filtering ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Initial Growth ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Case Count ◽  
Slow Decline ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Variable Transmission

AbstractOur method uses a hybrid deterministic and stochastic formalism that allows for time variable transmission rates and detection probabilities. The model was fit using iterated particle filtering to case count and death count time series from 51 countries. We found evidence for a declining transmission rate in 42 of the 51 examined countries. Of those 42 countries 34 have significant evidence for subcritical transmission rates, although the decline in new cases are relatively slow compared to the initial growth rates. This suggests that global scale social distancing efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19 are effective although they need to be strengthened in many regions and maintained in others to avoid further resurgence of COVID-19. The slow decline also suggests alternative strategies to control the virus are needed before social distancing efforts are partially relaxed.

scholarly journals Role of children in household transmission of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
pp. archdischild-2020-319910 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jieun Kim ◽  
Young June Choe ◽  
Jin Lee ◽  
Young Joon Park ◽  
Ok Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Clinical Findings ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Secondary Case ◽  
Household Transmission ◽  
Household Members ◽  
Index Cases

ObjectiveTransmissibility of COVID-19 by children in the household is not clear. Herein, we describe children’s role in household transmission of COVID-19.Design and settingAll paediatric COVID-19 index cases and their household members reported from 20 January to 6 April 2020 in South Korea were reviewed. The secondary attack rate (SAR) from child index case to household secondary case was calculated. Epidemiological and clinical findings of child index case-household secondary case pair was assessed.ResultsA total of 107 paediatric COVID-19 index cases and 248 of their household members were identified. One pair of paediatric index-secondary household case was identified, giving a household SAR of 0.5% (95% CI 0.0% to 2.6%). The index case was self-quarantined at home after international travel, stayed in her room, but shared a meal table with the secondary case.ConclusionThe SAR from children to household members was low in the setting of social distancing, underscoring the importance of rigorous contact tracing and early isolation in limiting transmission within households.

scholarly journals Detection of intra-familial transmission of shigella infection using conventional serotyping and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis

2005 ◽  
Vol 134 (3) ◽  
pp. 605-611 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. KHAN ◽  
K. A. TALUKDER ◽  
S. HUQ ◽  
D. MONDAL ◽  
M. A. MALEK ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gel Electrophoresis ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Shigella Flexneri ◽  
Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis ◽  
Familial Transmission ◽  
Pulsed Field ◽  
Asymptomatic Carriage ◽  
Family Contact ◽  
Index Cases

Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) is commonly used in molecular epidemiology. However, this technique has never been used in studying intra-family spread of enteric diseases in Bangladesh. Our objective was to evaluate the intra-familial transmission of shigella infection using PFGE. Children of either sex, less than 10 years old, who were family contacts of shigella-infected index cases were the study population. PFGE was applied if the same serotypes/sub-serotypes of shigella were isolated from both the index case and the family contact children. In total, 227 index cases were studied. Shigella was isolated from 61 (27%) contact children on day 1 of enrolment, among which Shigella flexneri (41%) and S. boydii (41%) were dominant, followed by S. dysenteriae (10%), S. sonnei (3%), and shigella-like organisms (5%). Seventeen (28%) of the asymptomatic infections in contact children were caused by the same serotype of shigella as that found in the index case. The intra-familial shigella transmission rate was 8% (17/227). Of the 227 contact children, eight (4%) developed diarrhoea during a 10-day follow-up and shigella was isolated from five (2%) of these children, and three of them (S. flexneri 3a, 1b, and 3a) were identical to the strains from their respective index cases. Compared to children without asymptomatic carriage of shigella (2/166), the risk (odds ratio) of developing diarrhoea for the children with asymptomatic carriage of shigella identical to their cases (3/17) was 9·0 (95% CI 1·5–49·0, P=0·01). The attributable risk for symptomatic shigella infection by intra-familial transmission was 50%. Results of this study demonstrated that intra-familial transmission of shigella carries a higher risk for diarrhoea.

scholarly journals Household SARS-CoV-2 transmission and children: a network prospective study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoni Soriano-Arandes ◽  
Anna Gatell ◽  
Pepe Serrano ◽  
Mireia Biosca ◽  
Ferran Campillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
School Interventions ◽  
Household Transmission ◽  
Household Members ◽  
School Period ◽  
Index Cases

Abstract Background The role of children in household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains uncertain. Here, we describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of children with COVID-19 in Catalonia (Spain) and investigate the dynamics of household transmission. Methods Prospective, observational, multicenter study performed during summer and school periods (1 July-31 October, 2020), in which epidemiological and clinical features, and viral transmission dynamics were analyzed in COVID-19 patients <16 years. A pediatric index case was established when a child was the first individual infected within a household. Secondary cases were defined when another household member tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 before the child. The secondary attack rate (SAR) was calculated, and logistic regression was used to assess associations between transmission risk factors and SARS-CoV-2 infections. Results The study included 1040 COVID-19 patients <16 years. Almost half (47.2%) were asymptomatic, 10.8% had comorbidities, and 2.6% required hospitalization. No deaths were reported. Viral transmission was common among household members (62.3%). More than 70% (756/1040) of pediatric cases were secondary to an adult, whereas 7.7% (80/1040) were index cases. The SAR was significantly lower in households with COVID-19 pediatric index cases during the school period relative to summer (p=0.02), and when compared to adults (p=0.006). No individual or environmental risk factors associated with the SAR were identified. Conclusions Children are unlikely to cause household COVID-19 clusters or be major drivers of the pandemic even if attending school. Interventions aimed at children are expected to have a small impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

scholarly journals State-level COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Mobility and Policy Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifei Wang ◽  
Hao (Michael) Peng ◽  
Long Sha ◽  
Zheyuan Liu ◽  
Pengyu Hong
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trend Forecasting ◽  
Calibration Step

AbstractThe importance of pandemic forecast cannot be overemphasized. We propose an interpretable machine learning approach for forecasting pandemic transmission rates by utilizing local mobility statistics and government policies. A calibration step is introduced to deal with time-varying relationships between transmission rates and predictors. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach is able to make accurate two-week ahead predictions of the state-level COVID-19 infection trends in the US. Moreover, the models trained by our approach offer insights into the spread of COVID-19, such as the association between the baseline transmission rate and the state-level demographics, the effectiveness of local policies in reducing COVID-19 infections, and so on. This work provides a good understanding of COVID-19 evolution with respect to state-level characteristics and can potentially inform local policymakers in devising customized response strategies.

scholarly journals A meta-analysis on the role of children in SARS-CoV-2 in household transmission clusters

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanshan Zhu ◽  
Conor J Bloxham ◽  
Katina D Hulme ◽  
Jane E Sinclair ◽  
Zhen Wei Marcus Tong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Risk Ratio ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Household Contacts ◽  
Household Transmission ◽  
Potential Vaccine ◽  
Index Cases

Abstract The role of children in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains highly controversial. To address this issue, we performed a meta-analysis of the published literature on household SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters (n=213 from 12 countries). Only 8 (3.8%) transmission clusters were identified as having a paediatric index case. Asymptomatic index cases were associated with a lower secondary attack in contacts than symptomatic index cases (estimate risk ratio [RR], 0.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.09-0.29). To determine the susceptibility of children to household infections the secondary attack rate (SAR) in paediatric household contacts was assessed. The secondary attack rate in paediatric household contacts was lower than in adult household contacts (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42-0.91). These data have important implications for the ongoing management of the COVID-19 pandemic, including potential vaccine prioritization strategies.

scholarly journals A meta-analysis on the role of children in SARS-CoV-2 in household transmission clusters

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanshan Zhu ◽  
Conor J. Bloxham ◽  
Katina D. Hulme ◽  
Jane E. Sinclair ◽  
Zhen Wei Marcus Tong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Family Member ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Household Contacts ◽  
Household Transmission ◽  
Potential Vaccine ◽  
Index Cases

ABSTRACTThe role of children in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains highly controversial. To address this issue, we performed a meta-analysis of the published literature on household SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters (n=213 from 12 countries). Only 8 (3.8%) transmission clusters were identified as having a paediatric index case. Asymptomatic index cases were associated with a lower secondary attack in contacts than symptomatic index cases (estimate risk ratio [RR], 0.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.09-0.29). To determine the susceptibility of children to household infections the secondary attack rate (SAR) in paediatric household contacts was assessed. The secondary attack rate in paediatric household contacts was lower than in adult household contacts (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42-0.91). These data have important implications for the ongoing management of the COVID-19 pandemic, including potential vaccine prioritization strategies.40-word summaryIn household transmission clusters of SARS-CoV-2 children are unlikely to be the index case. Children are also less likely than adults to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 from a family member.

Scripturalizing and the Second Amendment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosamond C. Rodman
Keyword(s):  
White Women ◽  
White Children ◽  
The Bible ◽  
Second Amendment ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Status ◽  
Us Constitution ◽  
Half Decade

Expanding beyond the text of the Bible, this chapter explores instead a piece of political scripture, namely the Second Amendment of the US Constitution. Over the last half-decade, the Second Amendment has come to enjoy the status of a kind of scripture-within-scripture. Vaulted to a much more prominent status than it had held in the first 150 years or so of its existence, and having undergone a remarkable shift in what most Americans think it means, the Second Amendment provides an opportunity to examine the linguistic, racial, and gendered modes by which these changes were effected, paying particular attention to the ways in which white children and white women were conscripted into the role of the masculine, frontier-defending US citizen.

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