Energy landscape analysis elucidates the multistability of ecological communities across environmental gradient
AbstractCompositional multistability is widely observed in multispecies ecological communities. Since differences in community composition often lead to differences in community function, understanding compositional multistability is essential to comprehend the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecosystems. In community assembly studies, it has long been recognized that the order and timing of species migration and extinction influence structure and function of communities. The study of multistability in ecology has focused on the change in dynamical stability across environmental gradients, and was developed mainly for low-dimensional systems. As a result, methodologies for studying the compositional stability of empirical multispecies communities is not well developed. Here, we show that models previously used in ecology can be analyzed from a new perspective - the energy landscape - to unveil compositional stability of multispecies communities in observational data. To show that our method can be applicable to real-world ecological communities, we simulated the assembly dynamics driven by population level processes, and show that results were mostly robust to different simulation conditions. Our method reliably captured the change of the overall compositional stability of multispecies communities over environmental change, and indicated a small fraction of community compositions that may be a channel for transition between stable states. When applied to mouse gut microbiota, our method showed the presence of two alternative states with change in age, and suggested the multiple mechanism by which aging impairs the compositional stability of the mouse gut microbiota. Our method will be a practical tool to study the compositional stability of multispecies communities in a changing world, and will facilitate empirical studies that integrate the concept of multistability developed in different fields of ecology in the past decades.