Macroeconomic factors and stock prices in the food and drink industry

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate and evaluate the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals on stock prices of selected food and drink industry stocks during the period of 2005–2015, which saw the global financial crisis and its aftermath. Design/methodology/approach The paper employed correlation analysis and the Johansen cointegration test with the vector error correction mechanism for EU companies operating in the food and drink industry. The paper tested the effects of GDP, inflation and interest rates (IR) on the stock prices of companies from Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Spain and the UK. Findings Based on the results, the authors can see that GDP has a generally positive effect on stock price development. In contrast, the relationship between stock prices and inflation and IR is negative in most cases. Originality/value Despite the fact that a majority of empirical research on companies in the food and drink sector was performed using the microeconomic approach, this paper used the macroeconomic approach and clearly demonstrated the effects of selected macro-variables on stock prices in selected EU markets. Macroeconomic factors shape the company’s performance and could potentially lead to persistent changes in supply and demand conditions in food and drink markets.

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Price linkages between Australian housing and stock markets

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis ◽

10.1108/ijhma-05-2016-0037 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 305-323 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Ming-Te Lee ◽

Chyi Lin Lee ◽

Ming-Long Lee ◽

Chien-Ya Liao

Keyword(s):

Stock Prices ◽

Asset Prices ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

House Prices ◽

Content Type ◽

Test Framework ◽

The Global Financial Crisis ◽

The Impact ◽

Toda And Yamamoto ◽

Capital Switching

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the linkages between Australian house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. Specifically, it investigated whether there is a capital switching effect between house prices and stock prices. Design/methodology/approach This study examined the linkages between house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. To accommodate the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC), a sub-period analysis was undertaken. To assess the impact of investor structure, the tests were also performed for small cap stocks and large cap stocks individually. Findings The empirical results reveal a negative lead–lag relationship between house prices and stock prices in Australia, suggesting the existence of capital switching activities between housing and stocks. The impact of the GFC on the lead–lag relationship between house prices and stock prices is also documented. Before the crisis, a causality transmission was running from house prices to stock prices, whilst stock prices appeared to lead house prices after the crisis. The capital switching activities between housing and stocks are more evident for small cap stocks. Originality/value This study is the first to examine the linkages between house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. This is the first study to explore the impacts of the GFC on the lead–lag relationship between the two asset prices under the capital switching framework. This study is also the first to provide empirical evidence regarding the existence of capital switching activities between housing and stocks. In addition, the impact of investor structure on the interrelationship between the two asset prices is examined for the first time under the capital switching framework.

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SENSITIVITAS FAKTOR EKONOMI MAKRO DAN MIKRO DALAM MEMPREDIKSI VOLATILITAS HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN SEKTOR INDUSTRI FOOD & BEVERAGES

JIAFE (Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Fakultas Ekonomi) ◽

10.34204/jiafe.v4i1.1080 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 85-100

Author(s):

Abdul Kohar ◽

Nurmala Ahmar ◽

Suratno Suratno

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Stock Price ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Price Volatility ◽

Share Price ◽

Macroeconomic Factors ◽

Stock Price Volatility ◽

The Impact

The movement of macroeconomic factors can be used to predict the movement of the stock price, but different researchers are using different macroeconomic factors because there is still no consensus among them which macroeconomic factors that have an influence on stock prices. This study aimed to analyze and test the impact of macroeconomics factors which consisting of inflation, interest rates, exchange rate, and microeconomy factors, consisting of asset growth, growth earnings and sales growth to the volatility of stock prices on food and beverages companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange between 2011 and 2015 period. The study measure the sensitivity of inflation and interest rates and stock price volatility by regressing each variable with a share price which will produce the sensitivity value of each variable. A total of 66 samples are tested by using the classic assumption as the precondition for regression analysis techniques (multiple regressions). The results showed that inflation is partially affect the stock price volatility, Indonesia Interest Rate (SBI) is partially effect on stock price volatility, and exchange rate and microeconomics are partially no effect on stock price volatility.

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Optimal feedback control of stock prices under credit risk dynamics

Annals of Operations Research ◽

10.1007/s10479-021-04002-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jinghai Shao ◽

Sovan Mitra ◽

Andreas Karathanasopoulos

Keyword(s):

Credit Risk ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Stock Price ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Optimal Feedback Control ◽

Dynamic Programming Principle ◽

Price Model ◽

Managerial Control ◽

Optimal Feedback ◽

The Impact

AbstractIn this paper we provide a stock price model that explicitly incorporates credit risk, under a stochastic optimal control system. The stock price model also incorporates the managerial control of credit risk through a control policy in the stochastic system. We provide explicit conditions on the existence of optimal feedback controls for the stock price model with credit risk. We prove the continuity of the value function, and then prove the dynamic programming principle for our system. Finally, we prove the Viscosity Solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. This paper is particularly relevant to industry, as the impact of credit risk upon stock prices has been prominent since the commencement of the Global Financial Crisis.

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Market reactions to the inclusion of people with disabilities

Equality Diversity and Inclusion An International Journal ◽

10.1108/edi-01-2021-0025 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Claudia Araceli Hernández González

Keyword(s):

Event Study ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Stock Price ◽

Abnormal Returns ◽

People With Disabilities ◽

Market Reactions ◽

Content Type ◽

Study Methodology ◽

Research Advance ◽

The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to provide evidence of market reactions to organizations' inclusion of people with disabilities. Cases from financial journals in 1989–2014 were used to analyze the impact of actions taken by organizations to include or discriminate people with disabilities in terms of the companies' stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThis research is conducted as an event study where the disclosure of information on an organization's actions toward people with disabilities is expected to impact the organization's stock price. The window of the event was set as (−1, +1) days. Stock prices were analyzed to detect abnormal returns during this period.FindingsResults support the hypotheses that investors value inclusion and reject discrimination. Furthermore, the impact of negative actions is immediate, whereas the impact of positive actions requires at least an additional day to influence the firm's stock price. Some differences among the categories were found; for instance, employment and customer events were significantly more important to a firm's stock price than philanthropic actions. It was observed that philanthropic events produce negative abnormal returns on average.Originality/valueThe event study methodology provides a different perspective to practices in organizations regarding people with disabilities. Moreover, the findings in this research advance the literature by highlighting that organizations should consider policies and practices that include people with disabilities.

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Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, dan BI-Rate terhadap Harga Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia

Jurnal MAPS (Manajemen dan Perbankan Syariah) ◽

10.32483/maps.v4i2.50 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 47-56

Author(s):

Fifi Afiyanti Tripuspitorini

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Stock Price ◽

Partial Least Square ◽

Least Square ◽

Stock Index ◽

Macroeconomic Factors ◽

Negative Effect ◽

Monthly Period

Islamic investment is experiencing an upward trend from year to year. Many investors are starting to look at Islamic stocks. One of the Islamic stocks in Indonesia is the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI). Investors must have many careful considerations to invest. One of the factors that may influence stock prices is macroeconomic factors. This study aims to determine how macroeconomic variables in the form of inflation, the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar, and Bank Indonesia interest rates can affect the ISSI stock price. This study uses a quantitative data approach. The data is obtained from the Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) in the monthly period January 2016 to December 2018.Meanwhile, data analysis used Partial Least Square (PLS) with the help of WarpPLS. The results showed that inflation and the rupiah exchange rate had no effect on the ISSI stock price. while the BI rate has a significant negative effect on the ISSI stock price.

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Assessing The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis On GCC Countries

Journal of Business & Economics Research (JBER) ◽

10.19030/jber.v8i2.682 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Hisham H. Abdelbaki

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

The United States ◽

Font Size ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Gcc Countries ◽

The World ◽

The Global Financial Crisis ◽

The Impact

No doubt, the international financial crisis that started in the United States of America will cast its effects on all countries of the world, developed and developing. Yet these effects vary from one country to another for several reasons. The GCC countries would not escape these negative effects of this severe crisis. The negative effects of the crisis on gulf countries come from many aspects: first, decrease in price of oil on whose revenues the development programs in these countries depend; second, decrease in the value of US$ and the subsequent decrease in the assets owned by these countries in US$; third, a case of economic stagnation will prevail in the world with effects starting to appear. It is obvious that this would be reflected on the real sector in the economies causing a series of negative effects through decrease of the world demand for exports of GCC countries of oil, petrochemicals and aluminum.  Lastly, increased inflation rates with decreased interest rates will result in a decrease in real interest with an accompanying decrease in incentives for saving and consequently investment and economic development. The main aim of the research is to assess the economic effects of the global financial crisis on GCC countries. The paper results are that the big reserves of foreign currencies achieved by the GCC countries in the past few years have helped increase their ability to bear the effects of the financial effects on one hand and their ability to adopt expansionary policies through pumping liquidity to absorb the regressive effects of the crisis on the other. The paper recommends the necessity of taking precautionary procedures for the effects which will result from the expansionary policies effective in GCC countries.

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The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Central Banking

The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking ◽

10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190626198.013.6 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 170-192

Author(s):

Alex Cukierman

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Financial Stability ◽

Inflation Targeting ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

The United States ◽

Central Banking ◽

The Global Financial Crisis ◽

The Impact ◽

Regulatory Reforms

This chapter describes the impacts of the global financial crisis on monetary policy and institutions. It argues that during the crisis, financial stability took precedence over traditional inflation targeting and discusses the emergence of unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), forex market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. It describes the interaction between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and QE, and proposals, such as raising the inflation target, to alleviate the ZLB constraint. The chapter discusses the consequences of the relative passivity of fiscal policies, “helicopter money,” and 100 percent reserve requirement. The crisis triggered regulatory reforms in which central banks’ objectives were expanded to encompass macroprudential regulation. The chapter evaluates recent regulatory reforms in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom. It presents data on new net credit formation during the crisis and discusses implications for exit policies.

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Alternative measures for predicting financial distress in the case of Malaysian Islamic banks: assessing the impact of global financial crisis

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research ◽

10.1108/jiabr-12-2019-0223 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 1827-1845

Author(s):

Mehmet Asutay ◽

Jaizah Othman

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Islamic Banks ◽

Content Type ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Alternative Funding ◽

The Global Financial Crisis ◽

The Impact

Purpose The global financial crisis of 2008 still has an impact on the financial systems around the world, for which funding liquidity has been mentioned as one of the main concerns during that period. This study aims to consider the impact of and extent to which the funding structure of Islamic banks along with deposit structure, macroeconomic variables, other bank-specific variables, including alternative funding mix variables (in terms of funding structure measured as financing/deposit ratio), could play a part in explaining the financial conditions and predicting the failures and performances of Islamic banks in the case of Malaysia under the distress created by the global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Multivariate logit model was used with a sample including 17 full-fledged Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period from December 2005 to September 2010 by using quarterly data. Findings This study found that the funding mix variable (financing/deposit ratio), the composition of deposits, alternative bank-specific variables and alternative funding mix variables are statistically significant. In contrast, none of the macroeconomic variables is found to have a significant impact on bank liquidity. In the final models, the variables that showed significant performance were selected as explanatory variables. The results of McFadden R-squared for both selected models showed an excellent fit to predict the Islamic banks’ performance. Originality/value This empirical study contributes to the literature in two ways: to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the role of the funding structures of Islamic banks in determining their performance; and it also examines the effect of deposit composition (the mudharabah and non-mudharabah deposits) on Islamic banks’ performance.

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Money laundering and financial stability: does adverse publicity matter?

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance ◽

10.1108/jfrc-09-2021-0075 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Bahriye Basaran-Brooks

Keyword(s):

Money Laundering ◽

Financial Stability ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Banking System ◽

Public Confidence ◽

Content Type ◽

Reputational Risk ◽

The Global Financial Crisis ◽

The Impact

Purpose Already suffering reputational damage from the global financial crisis, banks face a further loss of trust due to their poor money laundering (ML) compliance practices. As confidence-driven institutions, the loss of reputation stemming from inadequate compliance with regulations and policies labels banks as facilitators of crime and destroys public trust both in the bank itself, peer banks and the wider banking system. Considering the links between financial stability and adverse publicity about banks, this paper aims to critically examine the implications of ML-specific bank information on financial stability. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts a content analysis and a theoretical discussion by critically evaluating the role of bank compliance information on stability with references to recent case studies. Findings This paper establishes that availability of information regarding a bank involved in or facilitating ML might pose a threat to financial stability if bank counterparties cut their ties with the bank in question and when bank stakeholders show a strong and sudden negative reaction to adverse publicity. Though recent ML scandals have not caused immediate instability, general loss of confidence associated with reputational risk have had a destabilising effect on affected banks’ capital and liquidity. Originality/value There has been surprisingly little discussion to date on the impact of publicly available bank information on financial stability and public confidence within the ML compliance framework. This paper approaches the issue of publicly available banking compliance information solely through the prism of public confidence and reputational risk and its impact on macro-stability by examining recent ML scandals.

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Dynamic implications of GDP, interest rates, taxes, income, foreign direct investments, housing prices on property NPLs

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis ◽

10.1108/ijhma-07-2021-0078 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Kuen-Wei Tham ◽

Rosli Said ◽

Yasmin Mohd Adnan

Keyword(s):

Interest Rates ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Housing Prices ◽

Economic Environment ◽

Macroeconomic Factors ◽

Content Type ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

Long Run ◽

First Time

Purpose The study on how macroeconomic factors affect non-performing loans (NPLs) have not been focussed on property loans, which had been amongst the largest contributor of NPLs in many countries. At the same time, whilst there are many studies that focusses on NPLs during the recession and financial crises, not many studies focus on how macroeconomic factors affect property NPLs in a recovering economic environment. The purpose of this study seeks to fill the gap by analysing the relationships between gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, income, foreign direct investments (FDI), housing prices and taxes on property NPLs with Malaysia as a case study in which NPLs rose for the first time after declining for almost a decade since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. This study aims to understand the dynamics and direction of causation in relationships. Design/methodology/approach The author uses the auto regressive distribution lag analysis between the independent variables of GDP, interest rates, housing prices, service taxes, percapita income and FDI affecting the dependent variable of property NPLs from 2009 to 2017, during a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time in almost a decade of decline. Findings This study found that interest rates, housing prices, income, GDP and service taxes were found to possess long cause effects and long run elasticity with NPLs. At the same time, interest rates were found to implicate property NPLs significantly in longer periods, followed by GDP, housing prices, service taxes and income. FDIs were found to be insignificantly negative in implicating property NPLs in the long run. Research limitations/implications This paper allows policymakers to understand the dynamic implications of crucial macroeconomic factors in affecting NPLs so that appropriate strategic monetary policies could be formulated towards addressing them. More focus shall be given to addressing the long term implications of these factors on NPLs. Practical implications Appropriate strategic monetary policy making can be channelled towards addressing these factors via understanding the short and long term implications of macroeconomic variables on property NPLs. Policymakers can take note of the long cause effects and long run elasticity of average interest rates, housing prices, income levels, GDP and service taxes with property NPLs so that appropriate long term policies can be addressed to control the rise of property NPLs in the country. At the same time, priority should be given towards strengthening of the GDP of the country due to its strongest impact in long term effects with reduction of NPLs in the country. Social implications The insights from the present study suggest policymakers interested in bringing stability in the real estate finance system need to account for the various macroeconomic variables found in this study. Originality/value The paper is novel on at least two dimensions. First, this study involves focussing on a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time after a decade of decline since recovering from the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. At the same time, this study focusses on property NPLs, which is unique in nature compared to general NPLs. This study had enabled policymakers to better understand the dynamic implications of several macroeconomic variables affecting property NPLs and assist them in strategic monetary policy making.

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