Price linkages between Australian housing and stock markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 305-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Te Lee ◽  
Chyi Lin Lee ◽  
Ming-Long Lee ◽  
Chien-Ya Liao
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Test Framework ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Toda And Yamamoto ◽  
Capital Switching

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the linkages between Australian house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. Specifically, it investigated whether there is a capital switching effect between house prices and stock prices. Design/methodology/approach This study examined the linkages between house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. To accommodate the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC), a sub-period analysis was undertaken. To assess the impact of investor structure, the tests were also performed for small cap stocks and large cap stocks individually. Findings The empirical results reveal a negative lead–lag relationship between house prices and stock prices in Australia, suggesting the existence of capital switching activities between housing and stocks. The impact of the GFC on the lead–lag relationship between house prices and stock prices is also documented. Before the crisis, a causality transmission was running from house prices to stock prices, whilst stock prices appeared to lead house prices after the crisis. The capital switching activities between housing and stocks are more evident for small cap stocks. Originality/value This study is the first to examine the linkages between house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. This is the first study to explore the impacts of the GFC on the lead–lag relationship between the two asset prices under the capital switching framework. This study is also the first to provide empirical evidence regarding the existence of capital switching activities between housing and stocks. In addition, the impact of investor structure on the interrelationship between the two asset prices is examined for the first time under the capital switching framework.

Macroeconomic factors and stock prices in the food and drink industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 121 (7) ◽  
pp. 1627-1641
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková ◽  
Daniel Stavárek ◽  
Tomáš Pražák ◽  
Marie Ligocká
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Food And Drink ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate and evaluate the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals on stock prices of selected food and drink industry stocks during the period of 2005–2015, which saw the global financial crisis and its aftermath. Design/methodology/approach The paper employed correlation analysis and the Johansen cointegration test with the vector error correction mechanism for EU companies operating in the food and drink industry. The paper tested the effects of GDP, inflation and interest rates (IR) on the stock prices of companies from Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Spain and the UK. Findings Based on the results, the authors can see that GDP has a generally positive effect on stock price development. In contrast, the relationship between stock prices and inflation and IR is negative in most cases. Originality/value Despite the fact that a majority of empirical research on companies in the food and drink sector was performed using the microeconomic approach, this paper used the macroeconomic approach and clearly demonstrated the effects of selected macro-variables on stock prices in selected EU markets. Macroeconomic factors shape the company’s performance and could potentially lead to persistent changes in supply and demand conditions in food and drink markets.

House prices and credit cycles: the case of Cyprus

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 539-550
Author(s):  
Dario Pontiggia ◽  
Petros Stavrou Sivitanides
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess whether the rapid accumulation of bank deposits before the global financial crisis and their subsequent drastic reduction was the main driving force of the Cyprus house price cycle over the period 2006–2015.Design/methodology/approachTo this aim we estimate a three-equation model in which house prices are determined by housing loans, among other factors, and housing loans are determined by bank deposits. All equations are estimated using partial adjustment model specifications.FindingsOur findings indicate that housing loans, which capture the effect of credit availability on housing demand, had the smallest effect on house prices, thus providing little support to our proposition of a deposits-driven cycle in house prices.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of the study is the use of the housing loan stock instead of the actual volume of housing loans in each period due to lack of such data. As a result our econometric estimates may not accurately capture the magnitude of the effect of housing loans on house prices.Practical implicationsThe study has important practical implications for policy makers as it highlights the importance of availability of credit in supporting effective demand for housing during periods of economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the key role of house price increases in combination with the collateral effect in driving the house price cycle.Originality/valueThis is among the few studies internationally and the first study in Cyprus that attempts to link econometrically the credit and house price cycles that were caused by the global financial crisis.

Uneven US housing recovery is vulnerable to many risks

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Washington Dc ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Housing Recovery ◽  
Mortgage Rates ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Private Homes

Subject US housing outlook Significance US housing starts are growing at a rate of around 1.2 million private homes per year, double the pace during the worst of the global financial crisis but far below the rate of 2 million homes a year in 2004-05. House prices are still growing steadily though, passing the pre-crisis peak late last year and gaining around 5% since then. Impacts San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, Dallas and Denver prices are over 20% higher than the pre-crisis peak, making them vulnerable to correction. New York, Washington DC, Chicago, Miami and Tampa are earlier in the cycle; prices remain at least 20% below the pre-crisis peak. The foreclosure rate is below 0.60% in every state but could turn around quickly if political instability or mortgage rates rise rapidly.

scholarly journals A time-varying approach to analysing fiscal policy and asset prices in South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste ◽  
Kanyane Matlou
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Marked Change ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to study the interplay of fiscal policy and asset prices in a time-varying fashion. Design/methodology/approach – Using South African data since 1966, the authors are able to study the dynamic shocks of both fiscal policy and asset prices on asset prices and fiscal policy based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. This enables the authors to isolate specific periods in time to understand the size and sign of the shocks. Findings – The results seem to suggest that at least two regimes exist in which expansionary fiscal policy affected asset prices. From the 1970s until 1990, fiscal expansions were associated with declining house and slightly increased stock prices. The majority of the first decade of 2000 had asset prices increasing when fiscal policy expanded. On the other hand, increasing asset prices reduced deficits for the majority of the sample period, while the recent financial crises had a marked change on the way asset prices affect fiscal policy. Originality/value – This is the first attempt in the literature of fiscal policy and asset prices to use a TVP-VAR model to not only analyse the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices, but also the feedback from asset prices to fiscal policy over time.

scholarly journals Alternative measures for predicting financial distress in the case of Malaysian Islamic banks: assessing the impact of global financial crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1827-1845
Author(s):  
Mehmet Asutay ◽  
Jaizah Othman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Alternative Funding ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The global financial crisis of 2008 still has an impact on the financial systems around the world, for which funding liquidity has been mentioned as one of the main concerns during that period. This study aims to consider the impact of and extent to which the funding structure of Islamic banks along with deposit structure, macroeconomic variables, other bank-specific variables, including alternative funding mix variables (in terms of funding structure measured as financing/deposit ratio), could play a part in explaining the financial conditions and predicting the failures and performances of Islamic banks in the case of Malaysia under the distress created by the global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Multivariate logit model was used with a sample including 17 full-fledged Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period from December 2005 to September 2010 by using quarterly data. Findings This study found that the funding mix variable (financing/deposit ratio), the composition of deposits, alternative bank-specific variables and alternative funding mix variables are statistically significant. In contrast, none of the macroeconomic variables is found to have a significant impact on bank liquidity. In the final models, the variables that showed significant performance were selected as explanatory variables. The results of McFadden R-squared for both selected models showed an excellent fit to predict the Islamic banks’ performance. Originality/value This empirical study contributes to the literature in two ways: to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the role of the funding structures of Islamic banks in determining their performance; and it also examines the effect of deposit composition (the mudharabah and non-mudharabah deposits) on Islamic banks’ performance.

Money laundering and financial stability: does adverse publicity matter?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahriye Basaran-Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Money Laundering ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reputational Risk ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Already suffering reputational damage from the global financial crisis, banks face a further loss of trust due to their poor money laundering (ML) compliance practices. As confidence-driven institutions, the loss of reputation stemming from inadequate compliance with regulations and policies labels banks as facilitators of crime and destroys public trust both in the bank itself, peer banks and the wider banking system. Considering the links between financial stability and adverse publicity about banks, this paper aims to critically examine the implications of ML-specific bank information on financial stability. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts a content analysis and a theoretical discussion by critically evaluating the role of bank compliance information on stability with references to recent case studies. Findings This paper establishes that availability of information regarding a bank involved in or facilitating ML might pose a threat to financial stability if bank counterparties cut their ties with the bank in question and when bank stakeholders show a strong and sudden negative reaction to adverse publicity. Though recent ML scandals have not caused immediate instability, general loss of confidence associated with reputational risk have had a destabilising effect on affected banks’ capital and liquidity. Originality/value There has been surprisingly little discussion to date on the impact of publicly available bank information on financial stability and public confidence within the ML compliance framework. This paper approaches the issue of publicly available banking compliance information solely through the prism of public confidence and reputational risk and its impact on macro-stability by examining recent ML scandals.

Likely winners and losers in upcoming COVID-19 economic crisis – lessons learned from the GFC

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Čadil ◽  
Marek Beránek ◽  
Vladimír Kovář
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shock Impact ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent efforts to contain it have started economic downturn that may even surpass the global financial crisis (GFC). The purpose of this study is to uncover the features of enterprises’ resilience during and after an external shock such as the GFC might be helpful in predicting the shock impact on enterprises and setting proper policy measures for the upcoming COVID-19 crisis. Design/methodology/approach The authors analysed the impact of the GFC on the entrepreneurial population in/of the Czech Republic using marginal effects method on a large random sample of 4,478 enterprises. In this analysis, the authors defined two groups of enterprises – “winners” and “losers” – based on the company’s dissolution and performance indicators. Findings The GFC struck the enterprise population asymmetrically in terms of the enterprises’ characteristics but also in terms of time. Micro and small size companies are the most vulnerable to external shocks such as the GFC. Technological level plays an important role in the recovery phase, especially in the case of manufacturing micro enterprises. Research limitations/implications Although there are differences between the GFC and the COVID-19 crisis, the GFC was the only comparable shock in modern history in its global nature, depth and unpredicted occurrence. It can be expected that the impact on enterprises can be partly similar. Practical implications Government support of micro size companies should be the priority in the upcoming COVID-19 crisis. Supporting the innovation and technology progress might accelerate the recovery phase after the crisis especially in micro companies as well. Originality/value This paper presents interesting insights into the impact of external shocks such as the GFC or COVID-19 on enterprises. It uncovers typical features of “winners” or “losers” of such shocks.

Managing risk in mergers and acquisitions activity: beyond ‘good’ and ‘bad’ management

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alnoor Bhimani ◽  
Mthuli Ncube ◽  
Prabhu Sivabalan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Agency Conflicts ◽  
Complex Behaviour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to assess the impact of the presence/absence of risk management practices on the risk of merger and acquisition (M&A) failure. Design/methodology/approach – An agency theoretic perspective is adopted, along with a mixed-methods approach to study managerial complexity beyond simply “good” and “bad”. The focus is on an agency conflicts. Findings – The authors first present an integrated framework that classifies managerial behaviour and risk management, where M&A bids can become vehicles for maximising managerial benefits rather than shareholder value. The authors proceed to consider M&A activity that benefits both managers and shareholders in the presence of risk management strategies. Research limitations/implications – The paper highlights the benefits of multiple paradigms and research paths that address dimensions captured by an agency theoretic perspective. Practical implications – The authors regard this paper as having particular significance in that the global financial crisis has impacted M&A activities and objectives, shifting the employment and related risks faced by managers. Originality/value – The paper suggests future research paths to advance the understanding of the complex behaviour of managers involved in M&A activities that go beyond the classification of “good” and “bad” managers.

scholarly journals Investigating dynamic capabilities, agility and knowledge management within EMNEs-longitudinal evidence from Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 1708-1728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay Pereira ◽  
Kamel Mellahi ◽  
Yama Temouri ◽  
Swetketu Patnaik ◽  
Mohammad Roohanifar
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Dynamic Capabilities ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emerging Market Multinationals ◽  
Technological Performance ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to analyse the impact of dynamic capability (DC) of emerging market multinationals (EMNEs) on their firm technological performance by teasing out the concepts of agility and knowledge management (KM) through DC. Design/methodology/approach Evidence from this study is contextualised on EMNEs that operate in the UK, Germany and France. This study examines the investment in intangible assets which EMNEs use to develop their DC over the period 2005-2016 and how this leads to increased firm technological performance. Findings Results show that higher investments in DC allow EMNEs to be more agile and gain competencies through KM and thereby sustain competitiveness in the three leading European countries. This research also identifies which EMNE groupings show greater technological performance and how such EMNE groupings are able to translate dynamic capabilities into greater technological performance compared to others over time. In summary, the role of DC during of the global financial crisis was also examined, where they are required to be more agile. Originality/value This paper sheds light on a novel way and motivation of successful EMNEs in using developed host countries as a location for generating DC through agility and KM.

scholarly journals Shareholder empowerment, steps forward and steps back

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-196
Author(s):  
Saad Almohammed Alrayes
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Fiduciary Duty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Shareholder Engagement ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The global financial crisis of 2007-2008 prompted a significant debate on corporate governance and shareholder empowerment. A question arises as to whether shareholders ought to be further empowered to have a greater influence over the companies’ activities. Yet, it is not self-evident that shareholder empowerment ensures better-run companies’ corporate activities. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to critically examine, identify and explain the corporate regulation forms and control collectively to evaluate the effectiveness of shareholder empowerment fully. Design/methodology/approach To do so, this paper sets out a comparative analysis approach between two jurisdictions, the UK and Delaware in the USA. The paper further addresses by undertaking three case studies; Barclays Plc which illustrated the Comply or Explain role, AVIVA (2012) that concentrated on the impact of the shareholder revolt, and the case of Hills Stores Co. v. Bozic (2000), which involved a claim brought by shareholders on the grounds of a breach of fiduciary duty. Findings This paper argues that the shareholder empowerment theoretically provides an effective means through which corporate activities can be regulated. However, to do this, account must be taken that a distinction should be made between long-term and short-term investors to encourage shareholder engagement by responsible long-term investors. Furthermore, the shareholders can exercise their powers effectively and influence the Board’s decision to award executive compensation. Originality/value This paper offered two distinct contributions: assessing whether in times of crisis shareholder empowerment represents a way to regulate corporate activities and by assessing the distinction between the perception of shareholder empowerment and the reality in practice.

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