China’s outward FDI efficiency along the Belt and Road

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 455-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaobin Fan ◽  
Ruohan Zhang ◽  
Xiaotong Liu ◽  
Lin Pan
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Financial Barriers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Road ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate the China’s outward FDI efficiency and it determinants in 69 countries along the Belt and Road over the period of 2003-2013. Design/methodology/approach This paper defines the extent of the Belt and Road in terms of geographical boundaries, justifying the application of the stochastic frontier gravity model to the FDI analysis, and then constructing a frontier regression model to assess the China’s outward FDI efficiency and it determinants in countries along the Belt and Road. Findings Regarding the core gravity parameter estimates, China’s outward FDI was highly consistent with the gravity model. As far as policy parameters are concerned, China’s outward FDI was significantly restricted by some man-made barriers in host countries. According to the estimated FDI efficiency scores, China has huge outward FDI potential in countries along the Belt and Road. In general, China’s outward FDI efficiency demonstrated a consistent uptrend from the perspectives of both FDI flows and stocks over the period of 2003-2013. Although China’s outward FDI performance indicated a very uneven pattern across different countries and periods, there were no significant performance differences between the Road and Belt. Practical implications The Belt and Road initiative can be largely beneficial to China’s outward FDI, but the specific framework of cooperation should be designed on the basis of determinants of China’s outward FDI. The regional cooperation with the Road countries should mainly focus on the removal of business barriers and financial barriers. The regional cooperation with the Belt countries should mainly concern the improvement of local intellectual property protection, the reduction of local tax burden, and removal of business barriers and financial barriers. Originality/value To the authors’ best knowledge, no existing literature has specifically examined the efficiency of China’s outward FDI in the countries along the Belt and Road and its determinants.

scholarly journals Trade and Infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Gravity Analysis Based on Revealed Trade Preferences

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Cristina Di Stefano ◽  
P. Lelio Iapadre ◽  
Ilaria Salvati
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Multilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Entire Network ◽  
The Belt And Road

This paper aims at investigating whether and how the intensity of trade between a pair of countries changes when they experience improvements in their infrastructural systems. We carry out our analysis considering countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a project specifically designed to promote infrastructural connectivity and therefore boost trade among the countries involved. Our empirical strategy relies on a particular specification of the gravity model, in which the dependent variable consists in an index of revealed trade preferences, calculated by comparing the actual value of trade flows between two countries with their expected value, proportional to the two countries’ total trade. Such methodology allows us to estimate bilateral trade intensity without resorting to the traditional “size” variables of the gravity model, taking the entire network of multilateral trade into account. We then study the possible impact of an improvement in infrastructure on a ‘gravity-adjusted’ measure of trade preferences, given by the residuals of our first estimations. Our results indicate that bilateral preferences among BRI countries will intensify inasmuch as they succeed in coordinating their infrastructural projects.

Viewpoint – could the belt and road initiative be derailed? An analysis of impediments to completion

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Enderwick
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Relative Significance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Belt And Road

Purpose The continuation of China’s belt and road initiative (BRI) is assumed in most analyses. Yet, recent events have created significant reputational damage for China and Chinese businesses. With a trade war evolving into a hegemonic struggle, there are a number of potential developments that could derail the BRI. This paper aims to provide a contemporary review of the factors that could negatively impact its continuation, and what China has done to mitigate the risks. Design/methodology/approach A descriptive paper that groups possible disruptive factors into three groups: internal weaknesses of the BRI and its design; those related to China’s implementation of the BRI and external concerns and pressures. Findings China has actively reviewed and refined the BRI to reduce its perceived weaknesses and increase its attractiveness to potential participants, focussing on debt dependency, transparency and governance. However, this has occurred at the same time as growing concerns regarding China’s international assertiveness, the hegemonic challenge and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Research limitations/implications These changes are occurring within an extremely dynamic environment and any analysis at one point in time is subject to considerable limitations. However, the paper brings together a range of disparate perspectives in a structured manner. Originality/value The classification of possible threats to the BRI is original and provides insights into the relative significance of the diverse challenges that China faces. The paper concludes that while China’s operational focus on the mechanics of the BRI process is necessary, it may not be sufficient to ensure its continuing development. The paper identifies the next step which is conceptualisation of these ideas and of the BRI. Some guidance as to how this might be done is provided.

scholarly journals Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koffi Dumor ◽  
Li Yao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Neural Network Analysis ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) under the auspices of the Chinese government was created as a regional integration and development model between China and her trade partners. Arguments have been raised as to whether this initiative will be beneficial to participating countries in the long run. We set to examine how to estimate this trade initiative by comparing the relative estimation powers of the traditional gravity model with the neural network analysis using detailed bilateral trade exports data from 1990 to 2017. The results show that neural networks are better than the gravity model approach in learning and clarifying international trade estimation. The neural networks with fixed country effects showed a more accurate estimation compared to a baseline model with country-year fixed effects, as in the OLS estimator and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood. On the other hand, the analysis indicated that more than 50% of the 6 participating East African countries in the BRI were able to attain their predicted targets. Kenya achieved an 80% (4 of 5) target. Drawing from the lessons of the BRI and the use of neural network model, it will serve as an important reference point by which other international trade interventions could be measured and compared.

Time lag analysis of FDI spillover effect

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 629-650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilin Zhang ◽  
Zhenyu Cheng ◽  
Qingsong He
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Technical Efficiency ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fdi Spillovers ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

Purpose For the developing countries involving in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with China as the main source of foreign development investment (FDI) and development as the top priority, it appears to attract more and more attention on how to make the best use of China’s outward foreign development investment. However, the contradictory evidence in the previous studies of FDI spillover effect and the remarkable time-lag feature of spillovers motivate us to analyze the mechanism of FDI spillover effect. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach The mechanism of FDI spillovers and the unavoidable lag effect in this process are empirically analyzed. Based on the panel data from the Belt and Road developing countries (BRDCs) and China’s direct investments (CDIs) from 2003 to 2017, the authors establish a panel vector autoregressive model, employing impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, together with Granger causality test. Findings Results suggest a dynamic interactive causality mechanism. First, CDI promotes the economic growth of BRDCs through technical efficiency, human capital and institutional transition with combined lags of five, nine and eight years. Second, improvements in the technical efficiency and institutional quality promote economic growth by facilitating the human capital with integrated delays of six and eight years. Third, China’s investment directly affects the economic growth of BRDCs, with a time lag of six years. The average time lag is about eight years. Originality/value Based on the analysis on the mechanism and time lag of FDI spillovers, the authors have shown that many previous articles using one-year lagged FDI to examine the spillover effect have systematic biases, which contributes to the research on the FDI spillover mechanism. It provides new views for host countries on how to make more effective use of FDI, especially for BRDCs using CDIs.

scholarly journals China’s Belt and Road Initiative and large-scale outbound investment

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shen Kunrong ◽  
Jin Gang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Chinese Enterprises ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cultural Exchanges ◽  
Institutional Differences ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Enterprise Investment ◽  
The Belt And Road

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively examine the influence of formal and informal institutional differences on enterprise investment margin, mode and result. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on 2,440 micro samples of large-scale outbound investment from 609 Chinese enterprises from the years 2005 to 2016. Findings The study has found that formal institutional differences have little impact on investment scale, but significantly affect investment diversification. In order to avoid the management risks brought by formal institutional differences, enterprises tend to a full ownership structure. However, the choice between greenfield investment and cross-border mergers and acquisitions is not affected by formal institutional differences. In contrast, the impact of informal institutional differences is more extensive. Both formal and informal institutional differences significantly increase the probability of investment failure. Further research found that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) bridges the formal institutional differences. Originality/value The study concludes that developing the BRI, especially cultural exchanges with countries alongside the Belt and Road, will help enterprises to “go global” faster and better.

Summit moves China's OBOR towards internationalisation

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Multilateral Development Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Belt One Road ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Regional Organisations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Belt And Road

Subject The future of China's One Belt One Road initiative. Significance China convened the first summit of the Belt and Road Initiative (previously known as 'One Belt One Road', OBOR) on May 14-15. With this major diplomatic event, President Xi Jinping aimed to showcase and buttress international support for his central foreign policy initiative, the success of which will hinge on the participation of other countries, regional organisations and international financial institutions. Their contribution, or lack thereof, will affect the nature of OBOR and determine the impact of the Chinese initiative on Asia’s infrastructure connectivity and economic system, as well as on the international order. Impacts Cooperation between China and multilateral development banks may increase the number of OBOR projects with competitive procurement. Plans for OBOR’s corridors may be altered to accommodate competing visions for Asia’s connectivity, such as Russia’s. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may more formally align its mandate with OBOR’s.

Beijing’s ambitions and assertiveness will grow

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Senior Leadership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
The World ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

Significance The senior leadership seeks to defend its position within China, first and foremost by preserving and strengthening the power of the Party through which it rules. China’s growing wealth and power create new opportunities for the Party to bolster its power -- and give rise to new threats that could undermine it. Impacts China’s ambitions centre on itself; they do not involve remaking the world in China’s image. China’s interests converge with other states' on climate change and economic cooperation; disputes concern how gains and costs are shared. China’s pursuit of its self-interest may sometimes have positive spill-overs, such as when it shares innovations, freely or otherwise. Despite controversies and setbacks, the Belt and Road will provide infrastructure critical for economic development globally. Beijing, long a practitioner of commercial espionage, is becoming bolder in its use of cyber operations to pursue its foreign policy agenda.

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