Estimating the efficiency and potential of China's steel products export to countries along the “Belt and Road” under interconnection: An application of extended stochastic frontier gravity model

2022 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 102513
Author(s):  
Jiayue Xu ◽  
Caiwu Lu ◽  
Shunling Ruan ◽  
Neal N. Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

China’s outward FDI efficiency along the Belt and Road

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 455-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaobin Fan ◽  
Ruohan Zhang ◽  
Xiaotong Liu ◽  
Lin Pan
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Financial Barriers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Road ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate the China’s outward FDI efficiency and it determinants in 69 countries along the Belt and Road over the period of 2003-2013. Design/methodology/approach This paper defines the extent of the Belt and Road in terms of geographical boundaries, justifying the application of the stochastic frontier gravity model to the FDI analysis, and then constructing a frontier regression model to assess the China’s outward FDI efficiency and it determinants in countries along the Belt and Road. Findings Regarding the core gravity parameter estimates, China’s outward FDI was highly consistent with the gravity model. As far as policy parameters are concerned, China’s outward FDI was significantly restricted by some man-made barriers in host countries. According to the estimated FDI efficiency scores, China has huge outward FDI potential in countries along the Belt and Road. In general, China’s outward FDI efficiency demonstrated a consistent uptrend from the perspectives of both FDI flows and stocks over the period of 2003-2013. Although China’s outward FDI performance indicated a very uneven pattern across different countries and periods, there were no significant performance differences between the Road and Belt. Practical implications The Belt and Road initiative can be largely beneficial to China’s outward FDI, but the specific framework of cooperation should be designed on the basis of determinants of China’s outward FDI. The regional cooperation with the Road countries should mainly focus on the removal of business barriers and financial barriers. The regional cooperation with the Belt countries should mainly concern the improvement of local intellectual property protection, the reduction of local tax burden, and removal of business barriers and financial barriers. Originality/value To the authors’ best knowledge, no existing literature has specifically examined the efficiency of China’s outward FDI in the countries along the Belt and Road and its determinants.

scholarly journals Trade and Infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Gravity Analysis Based on Revealed Trade Preferences

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Cristina Di Stefano ◽  
P. Lelio Iapadre ◽  
Ilaria Salvati
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Multilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Entire Network ◽  
The Belt And Road

This paper aims at investigating whether and how the intensity of trade between a pair of countries changes when they experience improvements in their infrastructural systems. We carry out our analysis considering countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a project specifically designed to promote infrastructural connectivity and therefore boost trade among the countries involved. Our empirical strategy relies on a particular specification of the gravity model, in which the dependent variable consists in an index of revealed trade preferences, calculated by comparing the actual value of trade flows between two countries with their expected value, proportional to the two countries’ total trade. Such methodology allows us to estimate bilateral trade intensity without resorting to the traditional “size” variables of the gravity model, taking the entire network of multilateral trade into account. We then study the possible impact of an improvement in infrastructure on a ‘gravity-adjusted’ measure of trade preferences, given by the residuals of our first estimations. Our results indicate that bilateral preferences among BRI countries will intensify inasmuch as they succeed in coordinating their infrastructural projects.

scholarly journals Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koffi Dumor ◽  
Li Yao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Neural Network Analysis ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) under the auspices of the Chinese government was created as a regional integration and development model between China and her trade partners. Arguments have been raised as to whether this initiative will be beneficial to participating countries in the long run. We set to examine how to estimate this trade initiative by comparing the relative estimation powers of the traditional gravity model with the neural network analysis using detailed bilateral trade exports data from 1990 to 2017. The results show that neural networks are better than the gravity model approach in learning and clarifying international trade estimation. The neural networks with fixed country effects showed a more accurate estimation compared to a baseline model with country-year fixed effects, as in the OLS estimator and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood. On the other hand, the analysis indicated that more than 50% of the 6 participating East African countries in the BRI were able to attain their predicted targets. Kenya achieved an 80% (4 of 5) target. Drawing from the lessons of the BRI and the use of neural network model, it will serve as an important reference point by which other international trade interventions could be measured and compared.

scholarly journals Factors Influencing Embodied Energy Trade between the Belt and Road Countries: A Gravity Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqi Sun ◽  
Qing Shi
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Energy Flow ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Embodied Energy ◽  
Flow Paths ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Energy Trade ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

Abstract Energy is a basic factor input embodied in the production of goods and services. The rapid growth of trade between Belt and Road countries calls for the study of bilateral embodied energy trade between them. Using the Eora input-output database in 2015, this paper accounts the embodied energy trade between Belt and Road countries, followed by an investigation of the factors influencing the embodied energy trade through a gravity model, which is different from the conventional decomposition analysis. We find that the main bilateral embodied flow paths are from South Korea to China, China to South Korea, Singapore to China, Ukraine to Russia, and Malaysia to Singapore. 5% embodied energy flow paths account for 80% of the total bilateral embodied energy flow volume between Belt and Road countries. The gravity model results indicate that GDP per capita and population are the key drivers of bilateral embodied energy trade, while the industrial share of GDP is negatively related to the trade. Energy intensity, especially that of importing countries, plays a crucial role in reducing the bilateral embodied energy flow. These results are useful in the policymaking of sustainable development for the Belt and Road Initiative.

Does the belt and road initiative stimulate China’s inbound tourist market? An empirical study using the gravity model with a DID method

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueying Huang ◽  
Yuanjun Han ◽  
Xuhong Gong ◽  
Xiangyan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Policy Guidance ◽  
The Belt And Road

This study examines the influence of the Belt and Road Initiative on China’s inbound tourist market, generated from countries and regions along the Belt and Road, using a gravity model with a difference-in-differences method. Panel data for 2008–2016 indicate that the Belt and Road Initiative has direct and significant positive effects on Chinese international tourist-generating markets, but the annual treatment effects are only partly significantly positive. We also examined the heterogeneous effects and mechanism of the Belt and Road Initiative on the inbound tourist market by grouping countries according to the levels of trade openness with China and economic development. The heterogeneous effect tests reveal that China’s international tourist origin countries with low levels of trade openness with China and high levels of economic development benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative. The findings of this study provide policy guidance on expansion for China’s inbound tourism market.

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Determinants of the Belt and Road Initiative: A Maximum Entropy Gravity Model Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 839-854
Author(s):  
Qinshi Huang ◽  
Xigang Zhu ◽  
Chunhui Liu ◽  
Wei Wu ◽  
Fengbao Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
Model Approach

scholarly journals Research on the Export Potential of China’s Equipment Manufacturing Products to Countries Along the Belt and Road

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Pengfei Chu ◽  
Guanxia Xie ◽  
Zhenyun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Trade Openness ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Market Potential ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Equipment Manufacturing ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Develop Market ◽  
The Belt And Road

Based on China’s export trade data of equipment manufacturing to countries along the Belt and Road from 2006 to 2018, this paper uses a stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze the influencing factors and export trade efficiency of China’s export trade. The results indicate that: 1) Larger economic scale and population size, closer geographical distance, common boundaries and a common language can significantly increase China’s exports of equipment manufacturing products to countries along the route. 2) Signing free trade agreements with partners, increasing trade openness, and improving infrastructure construction can significantly improve China’s export trade level, while excessive tariff levels will inhibit export trade efficiency. 3) In recent years, the efficiency of China’s export trade to countries along the Belt and Road has improved, but the overall level is still low, and the efficiency of export trade to different countries varies greatly. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen international trade cooperation, improve conditions for trade development, increase investment in infrastructure construction with countries along the Belt and Road, and adopt targeted strategies for different types of markets to develop market potential.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Impact of the New International Land and Sea Trade Channel on the Development of the Trade Potential of 8 Domestic Provinces and Cities

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03024
Author(s):  
Gu Jijian ◽  
Feng Lipeng ◽  
He Liyan ◽  
Zhong Heng
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Potential Coefficient ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Trade Channel ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Belt And Road

The new international land and sea trade channel is an important part of China’s “The Belt and Road Initiative” going south, with Chongqing as the operating center, and 7 provinces and cities such as Guangxi, Guizhou, and Gansu as key nodes. Gravity Model of Trade is adopted to analyze the issue of trade creation effect and trade transfer effect in the flow of China-ASEAN trade in detail. According to the theoretical trade value calculated by the export gravity model, the actual trade value was divided by the theoretical value to calculate the trade potential coefficient, which has been applied to measure the trade potential of export of 8 provinces and cities to the ten ASEAN countries. It is concluded that trading partners are in different types ranging from “potential remodeling”, “potential expansion” to “great potential”, and heterogeneity tests are performed to prove the self-consistency of the effect measurement. Further, it is proposed that to further develop trade relations, we must develop positive factors to promote export trade, stimulate trade needs of partner countries, and actively develop trade market countermeasures.

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