Expect the Unexpected: Risk Measurement and Management in Commercial Real Estate

Author(s):  
Craig Furfine

In early December 2013, Roxann Biller, Associate at the Chicago-based private equity firm Delta Quantitative Real Estate Capital, was asked to assess the risk associated with the firm's first potential overseas investment. Haifu Sentā Gendaino (HSG) was a large multi-tenant logistics property located in the Gaikando area of Tokyo. High-quality tenants currently occupied the property, so at first glance the risks of investing in the property seemed minimal. However, Biller knew that she had to consider the potential drawbacks. This would mean gaining a better understanding of each tenant, trying to forecast the future condition of the Tokyo logistics market, and considering what new risks her firm would face because the property's cash flows were in a foreign currency.

Author(s):  
Craig Furfine

Wildcat Capital Investors is a small real estate private equity company. Its MBA intern, Jessica Zaski, is asked to develop a financial model for the purchase of Financial Commons, a 90,000 square foot office building in suburban Chicago. By simple metrics, the property seems to be a good value, but with credit conditions tight, Jessica must consider whether outside investors would be comfortable with the risks of investing in the midst of a severe commercial real estate downturn. Wildcat is designed to give students exposure to both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of investing in commercial real estate through a private equity structure. Beyond the numbers, the case allows for a discussion of the process of finding suitable real estate investments. The importance of the simultaneous negotiations that Wildcat must have with the seller, the lender, and the outside investor can be emphasized.By working through the financial models, students will take a given set of assumptions and analyze the cash flows expected to be received by the equity partners of Financial Commons. With a given deal structure, the students can then model the cash flow to both outside equity investors and Wildcat, learning the mechanics of private equity. The model will allow students to investigate how the variations in the underlying assumptions affect returns to the property and to the investors.


Author(s):  
Craig Furfine

With interest rates near all-time lows in late 2015, Stanley Cirano knew it was an opportune time to consider the financing on his portfolio of commercial real estate. Cirano Properties was the general partner on three separate private equity investments of retail shopping centers in suburban Chicago. The first, Brookline Road Shopping Center, had been acquired in 2006 and had been managed through the financial crisis and real estate downturn. The property was performing well and Cirano wondered whether it made sense to refinance or sell. The second property, Columbus Festival Plaza, had been acquired in a 2010 bankruptcy auction. Although the property had needed a good amount of capital improvements, Cirano was proud of the growth in net operating income he had been able to generate. The final property, Deerwood Acres, had been developed by Cirano himself after acquiring the property in 2013 from the previous owner, who had been operating a go-cart track and drive-in theater on the land. Cirano expected great things from the property, though his lease-up had been slower than anticipated. Although the three properties had different levels of performance and presented different management issues, they all shared the fact that they were all significantly financed, in part, with debt. As the properties were acquired at different times, Cirano had simply selected what seemed like reasonable financing at the time. With his concern that interest rates would soon be rising, Cirano thought it made sense to take a holistic view of his portfolio, consider what debt options were available to him, and make a sound strategic decision on the financing of all his assets at the same time.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme ◽  
Michel Baroni ◽  
Fabrice Barthélémy ◽  
Mahdi Mokrane

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the impact of lease duration and lease break options on the optimal holding period for a real estate asset or portfolio. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a Monte Carlo simulation framework to simulate a real estate asset’s cash flows in which lease structures (rent, indexation pattern, overall lease duration and break options) are explicitly taken into account. The authors assume that a tenant exercises his/her option to break a lease if the rent paid is higher than the market rental value (MRV) of similar properties. The authors also model vacancy duration stochastically. Finally, capital values and MRVs, assumed to be correlated, are simulated using specific stochastic processes. The authors derive the optimal holding period for the asset as the value that maximizes its discounted value. Findings – The authors demonstrate that, consistent with existing capital markets literature and real estate business practice, break options in leases can dramatically alter optimal holding periods for real estate assets and, by extension, portfolios. The paper shows that, everything else being equal, shorter lease durations, higher MRV volatility, increasing negative rental reversion, higher vacancy duration, more break options, all tend to decrease the optimal holding period of a real estate asset. The converse is also true. Practical implications – Practitioners are offered insights as well as a practical methodology for determining the ex-ante optimal holding period for an asset or a portfolio based on a number of market and asset-specific parameters including the lease structure. Originality/value – The originality of the paper derives from its taking an explicit modelling approach to lease duration and lease breaks as additional sources of asset-specific risk alongside market risk. This is critical in real estate portfolio management because such specific risk is usually difficult to diversify.


2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 376-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel B. Aalbers

Geographers have started studying residential (housing) and commercial real estate (offices, retail, leisure) at the intersection of financial and urban geographies to understand how the built environment – chunky and spatially fixed – has been turned into a (quasi-)financial asset – ‘unitized’ and liquid – through a range of regulatory and socio-technical changes and constructions. The financialization of real estate is not limited to the rise in household debt, mortgage securitization and international investment in office markets, but increasingly also affects rental housing: private equity, hedge funds and REITs buy up large portfolios of social and private rented housing, while housing associations use derivatives and other financial instruments. This report surveys the most recent research on finance, real estate and housing.


2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-150
Author(s):  
Yu Liu ◽  
Jonathan A. Wiley

Corporate investors pay significantly higher prices for industrial acquisitions (by an estimated 10%), but sell at market prices that are no different from other investors. The findings implicate informational disadvantages since it is only inexperienced corporations who overpay. Overpayment is more severe for high-quality assets and those sought after by users. Prices are significantly higher when both buyer and seller are corporate investors, indicating different approaches to valuation. Inclusiveness of the control group is an important caveat when measuring clientele effects. Overall, this study contributes to our understanding of investor clientele effects in the market for commercial real estate ownership.


Author(s):  
Jacob S Sagi

Abstract In stark contrast with liquid asset returns, commercial real estate idiosyncratic return means and variances do not scale with the holding period, even after accounting for all cash flow-relevant events. This puzzling phenomenon survives controlling for vintage effects, systematic risk heterogeneity, and a host of other explanations. To explain the findings, I derive an equilibrium search-based asset-pricing model that, when calibrated, provides an excellent fit to transactions data. A structural model of transaction risk seems crucial to understanding real estate price dynamics. These insights extend to other highly illiquid asset classes, such as private equity and residential real estate.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 327-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Saiz

PurposeDigital and information technologies (IT) are becoming silently pervasive in old-fashioned real estate markets. This paper focuses on three important avenues for the diffusion of IT in commercial real estate: online brokerage and sales, the commoditization of space and Fintech in mortgage and equity funding. We describe the main new markets and products created by this IT revolution. The focus is on the pioneering US market, with some attention devoted to the specific firms and institutions taking these innovations into the mainstream. We also carefully analyze the economic underpinnings from which the new technologies can expect to generate cash flows, thus becoming viable—or not. Finally, we discuss their likely impact on established players in the commercial real estate arena.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the author chooses to focus on three separate arenas where the IT revolution—sometimes referred to as Proptech, as applied to real estate—is having discernible impacts: sales and brokerage, space commoditization and online finance platforms. The author invites the reader to think seriously about the economic fundamentals that may—or may not—sustain new business models in Proptech. Real estate economists and investors alike need to be critical of new business models, especially when they are being aggressively marketed by their promoters. Trying to avoid any hype, the author provides thoughts about the likely impact of the innovations on their markets, guided by economic and finance theory, and previous experience.FindingsThe author evaluates the evolution of commercial real estate brokerage. While innovations will, no doubt, have an impact on the ways in which we buy and lease commercial properties, the lessons from the housing market should make us skeptical about the possibility of the new technologies dramatically facilitating disintermediation in this market. In fact, new oligopolies seem to be emerging with regard to market data provision.Practical implicationsProptech will change some aspects of the real estate industry, but not others!Originality/valueAs change pervades the property industry, only a relatively few research pieces are illustrating or—more importantly—providing insights about the likely economic and financial impacts of IT penetration. Similarly, only a few papers have so far addressed the economic viability of the alternative business models of tech startups targeting real estate markets and transactions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (11) ◽  
pp. 1101-1112
Author(s):  
Bin Mei ◽  
Wenbo Wu ◽  
Wenjing Yao

Using data from the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF), we examine market integration of commercial real estate and timberland–farmland assets via the Fama–MacBeth two-step approach under the intertemporal capital asset pricing framework. In addition, we study the information transition dynamics between those markets via the vector error correction model (VECM). We find evidence of market segregation and one-way information flow from the timberland–farmland market to the commercial real estate market. We conclude that commercial real estate and timberland–farmland assets are driven by different market fundamentals and that lagged timberland–farmland returns can help predict current commercial real estate returns. The only exception is during market downturns when commercial real estate and timberland–farmland markets are somewhat integrated and driven by some factors that are not specified in this study.


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