Development of a time-variant causal model of human error in construction with dynamic Bayesian network

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhangming Ma ◽  
Heap-Yih Chong ◽  
Pin-Chao Liao
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Dynamic Causal Model

Purpose Human error is among the leading causes of construction-based accidents. Previous studies on the factors affecting human error are rather vague from the perspective of complex and changeable working environments. The purpose of this paper is to develop a dynamic causal model of human errors to improve safety management in the construction industry. A theoretical model is developed and tested through a case study. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors defined the causal relationship between construction and human errors based on the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) was then developed by connecting time-variant causal relationships of human errors. Next, prediction, sensitivity analysis and diagnostic analysis of DBN were applied to demonstrate the function of this model. Finally, a case study of elevator installation was presented to verify the feasibility and applicability of the proposed approach in a construction work environment. Findings The results of the proposed model were closer to those of practice than previous static models, and the features of the systematization and dynamics are more efficient in adapting toward increasingly complex and changeable environments. Originality/value This research integrated CREAM as the theoretical foundation for a novel time-variant causal model of human errors in construction. Practically, this model highlights the hazards that potentially trigger human error occurrences, facilitating the implementation of proactive safety strategy and safety measures in advance.

Towards Chinese smart manufacturing ecosystem in the context of the one belt one road initiative

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafif Al-Sayed ◽  
Jianhua Yang
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Structured Interview ◽  
Industrial Clusters ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Smart Manufacturing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Regional Collaboration

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically China’s determined thrust to attain a high level of technological innovation and the factors affecting moving towards a smart and sophisticated manufacturing ecosystem in conjunction with the Belt and Road Initiative (OBOR). Design/methodology/approach This research provides empirical determination of the factors affecting moving towards smart manufacturing ecosystems in China. The method is based on combining two approaches: semi-structured interview and questionnaire-based with academics, experts and managers in various Chinese industrial sectors. The results are based on the multivariate analysis of the collected data. A case study of the current manufacturing ecosystem was also analyzed, in order to understand the present state as well as the potential for China’s competitive edge in the developed OBOR countries. Findings The results illustrate the importance of the infrastructure dimension comprising variables related to ecosystems, industrial clusters and Internet of Things IoT and other advanced technologies. A case study of the city of Shenzhen’s transformation into a smart cluster for innovative manufacturing points out how China’s OBOR initiative for regional collaboration will further transform the regional smart clusters into an ultra-large innovation based smart ecosystem. Originality/value This research is the first to study China’ policies towards playing a prominent role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution 4IR in the context of the OBOR initiative, through empirically defining the factors affecting moving towards a knowledge-intensive smart manufacturing ecosystem where the added value is mostly innovation based.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Safety Analysis of High Speed and Conventional Lines Using Bayesian Networks

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zacarias Grande Andrade ◽  
Enrique Castillo Ron ◽  
Alan O'Connor ◽  
Maria Nogal
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Driver Behavior ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Safety Analysis ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
Maintenance Costs ◽  
Railway Line ◽  
Probabilistic Safety

A Bayesian network approach is presented for probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) of railway lines. The idea consists of identifying and reproducing all the elements that the train encounters when circulating along a railway line, such as light and speed limit signals, tunnel or viaduct entries or exits, cuttings and embankments, acoustic sounds received in the cabin, curves, switches, etc. In addition, since the human error is very relevant for safety evaluation, the automatic train protection (ATP) systems and the driver behavior and its time evolution are modelled and taken into account to determine the probabilities of human errors. The nodes of the Bayesian network, their links and the associated probability tables are automatically constructed based on the line data that need to be carefully given. The conditional probability tables are reproduced by closed formulas, which facilitate the modelling and the sensitivity analysis. A sorted list of the most dangerous elements in the line is obtained, which permits making decisions about the line safety and programming maintenance operations in order to optimize them and reduce the maintenance costs substantially. The proposed methodology is illustrated by its application to several cases that include real lines such as the Palencia-Santander and the Dublin-Belfast lines.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2016.3428

Capture and evaluation of innovative ideas in early stages of product development

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 908-927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Madzík
Keyword(s):  
Product Development ◽  
Innovation Process ◽  
Kano Model ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Structured Analysis ◽  
Idea Evaluation

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a structured procedure for the capture and evaluation of innovative ideas in the early stages of product development. The procedure is designed to take account of internal and external factors affecting the value of innovative ideas. Design/methodology/approach The proposed procedure is based on divergent and convergent approaches to innovation. Ideas are generated and captured using targeted questions and subsequently evaluated using modifications of the Kano model and failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Idea evaluation considers four criteria – delight, originality, market share potential and simplicity – which are used to compute an “idea priority number”. Findings A case study looking at innovations in swimming goggles verified the validity of the proposed procedure. The procedure also supports fact-based decision making and applies a structured perspective to the innovation process that makes it easier to manage. Research limitations/implications The case study made use of a pilot survey in which 32 customers participated. Although the case study was only intended as a demonstration of the method’s use, such a sample size could lead to unreliable results in certain cases. Originality/value Applications of standard or expanded FMEA do not add value to a product because the main purpose of the approach is to prevent failure. The proposed inversion of FMEA logic combined with customer view via the Kano model offers a method for the structured analysis of product innovations. No similar approach to the evaluation of innovations has so far appeared in the literature.

scholarly journals Simulation of the effect of COVID-19 outbreak on the development of branchless banking in Iran: case study of Resalat Qard–al-Hasan Bank

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vahid Shahabi ◽  
Adel Azar ◽  
Farshad Faezy Razi ◽  
Mir Feyz Fallah Shams
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Job Rotation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Global Challenge ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Incentive Policies ◽  
Positive Factor ◽  
Number Of Branches

PurposeCOVID-19 has become a global challenge with a significant rate of prevalence, and it has exerted devastating consequences in epidemic, economic and social terms. Therefore, a number of studies have already been, or are now being, conducted on the detrimental effects of the virus. In this respect, a question may arise: Is there any possibility to turn the threat of the virus outbreak into an opportunity in some sectors such as the banking industry? In this research, the effects of COVID-19 outbreak as an intervening element on the acceptance of branchless banking were studied.Design/methodology/approachIn this research, the factors affecting the acceptance and development of branchless banking in Iran at the time of COVID-19 outbreak were identified by systematically studying the theoretical framework, conducting further research and interviewing the experts; then, a causal loop diagram of the problem in the proposed case study and the flow rate model were presented.FindingsThe simulation results showed that banking transactions and a bank's financial resources would increase by implementing the package policy of reducing the number of branches, promoting incentive policies and increasing the budget rate of the bank in Information Technology (IT). Further, by promoting customers' acceptance of new technologies, the spread of COVID-19 can be viewed as a positive factor, or even a catalyst, in the acceptance and development of branchless banking in Iran.Originality/valueBased on the proposed model, the difficulties faced by individuals during the spread of COVID-19 could act as justifiable incentives to boost appropriate organizational preparations for making changes to the classic working processes. Processes such as telecommuting, job rotation and so on are among these changes.

Facilities maintenance employees’ priority of safety management practices

Facilities ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (5/6) ◽  
pp. 319-334
Author(s):  
Saharani bin Jaafar ◽  
Weng Wai Choong ◽  
Abdul Hakim bin Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Safety Communication ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Management Level ◽  
Promotion Policies ◽  
Level Of Satisfaction

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the facilities maintenance employees’ priority on safety management practices and relationship to safety performance. The study aims to increase the safety performance among the facilities maintenance contractor by implementing safety management practices. Design/methodology/approach The data were collected by distributing questionnaire forms to the employees of selected facilities maintenance contractors representing general workers, technicians and executive- and the management-level employees. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, t-test, one-way analysis of variance, Pearson correlation and multiple regressions. Findings The descriptive results revealed that the employee priority on safety management practices is fairly “low”. The correlation and regression analyses tested and satisfied that management commitment, workers involvement in safety, safety training, safety communication and feedback, safety rules and procedures, and safety promotion policies significantly and strongly correlate with the degree and level of satisfaction to the safety performance. Research limitations/implications This research focuses only on facilities maintenance contractors working in the Klang Valley, Malaysia. It is possible that respondents from other areas or states may allow comparisons across different locations. Practical implications There are many factors affecting safety performance. By implementing safety management practices, high safety performance can be achieved in the facilities maintenance organisations in Malaysia. Originality/value This paper presents empirical findings on the relationship between employee priority on safety management practices elements and safety performance.

An econometric analysis of the factors affecting consumers' bread waste and consumption behaviour: a case study of Isparta province, Turkey

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Sarica ◽  
Vecdi Demircan ◽  
Aybike Erturk ◽  
Nilay Arslantas
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Monthly Income ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Consumption Behaviour ◽  
Underlying Causes

PurposeThe purpose of the research is to identify the various factors affecting bread wastage and bread consumption of consumers in Isparta, Turkey.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the categorical regression (CATREG) model to estimate the driving forces of bread waste and consumption. The study concentrates on data obtained from 384 respondents speaking for the same number of households placed in the province of Isparta in Turkey.FindingsThe results indicate that both models are statistically significant at the 1% level. Parents' profession, storage method, type of bread consumed, daily bread expenditure, monthly income and the idea of “bread is cheap” are the most important variables affecting bread wastage. Regarding bread consumption, parents' profession, fathers' education level, monthly income, inadequate control in bakeries, household size and the idea of “bread makes people fat” are found to play significant roles.Practical implicationsThe results could be helpful to develop influential policies on healthy eating and aiming plans to reduce bread consumption to healthy levels and prevent bread waste.Social implicationsThis research contributes to knowledge regarding the underlying causes of the bread consumption and wastage of Turkish consumers in the light of the data analysis for Isparta province.Originality/valueThis paper contains unique and original understandings concerning bread consumption and wastage attitudes and determinants for consumers from Isparta, Turkey. The novel findings of this research have conduced to a better understanding of the key factors that affect bread consumption and waste. The paper also applies an econometric analysis using a CATREG model to analyse the factors influencing consumers' bread waste and consumption behaviour in Isparta province, Turkey.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Gas Leakage from School Laboratories Based on the Bayesian Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Zhang ◽  
Xiaofeng Hu ◽  
Yiping Bai ◽  
Jiansong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Personal Safety ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Management Level ◽  
Gas Leakage ◽  
Quantitative Calculation ◽  
Unsafe Behavior ◽  
School Laboratory ◽  
Gas Leaks

In recent years, concerns about the safety of laboratories have been caused by several serious accidents in school laboratories. Gas leaks in the laboratory are often difficult to detect and cause serious consequences. In this study, a comprehensive model based on the Bayesian network is established for the assessment of the gas leaks evolution process and consequences in school laboratories. The model can quantitatively evaluate the factors affecting the probability and consequences of gas leakage. The results show that a model is an effective tool for assessing the risk of gas leakage. Among the various factors, the unsafe behavior of personnel has the greatest impact on the probability of gas leakage, and the concentration of toxic and harmful gases is the main factor affecting the consequences of accidents. Since the probability distribution of each node is obtained based on the experience of experts, there is a deviation in the quantitative calculation of the probability of gas leakage and consequences, but does not affect the risk analysis. This study could quantitatively assess the probability and consequences of gas leakage in the laboratory, and identify vulnerabilities, which helps improve the safety management level of gas in the school laboratory and reducing the possibility of gas leakage posing a threat to personal safety.

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