Rip current occurrence probability at selected recreational beaches along Pahang coastline

Purpose Pahang beaches draw more than thousand visitors throughout the year. From the year 2006 to 2018, more than 30 drowning and near-drowning cases were recorded mainly from rip currents. Rip currents are defined as unexpected currents that carried beachgoers away to seaward direction more than approximately 50 m from shore. The prediction of rip current development is very important for the protection of human life. This study aims to conduct preliminary survey and field works to identify rip current hazards. Design/methodology/approach The output would be an early warning preventative mitigation to public in Pahang. Beach state model, dimensionless fall velocity, littoral environment observation and relative tidal range were recorded for five recreational beaches during two different months (March and April 2018). The morphodynamic parameters such sediment fall velocity, sediment grain size and beach slope are then analysed using software PROFILER. Classification of risks was done based on beach morphodynamic model. The morphodynamics are classified as low tide bar rip, barred and low tide terrace associated with rip current, bar dissipative, reflective, non-bar dissipative, low tide terrace and ultra-dissipative. Findings Result shows three out of five recreational beaches may develop high-risk rip currents. During the first month of the survey, Batu Hitam (BH) was recorded the only one recreational beach that may develop high-risk rip current followed by Teluk Cempedak (TC) and Kempadang (KEM) as middle-risk rip current beaches, while Balok (BA) and Sepat (SEP) as low-risk rip current beaches. Different during second month of the survey, BA, BH and SEP were recorded as high-risk rip current beaches while TC and KEM as low-risk rip current beaches. Originality/value The results are consistent with beach incidents (drowning and near-drowning) reported.

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A Bayesian network approach to modelling rip-current drownings and shore-break wave injuries

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-21-2075-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (7) ◽

pp. 2075-2091

Author(s):

Elias de Korte ◽

Bruno Castelle ◽

Eric Tellier

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Network ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Surf Zone ◽

High Energy ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Tidal Range ◽

Boreal Summer ◽

Rip Current ◽

Rip Currents ◽

Awareness Campaigns

Abstract. A Bayesian network (BN) approach is used to model and predict shore-break-related injuries and rip-current drowning incidents based on detailed environmental conditions (wave, tide, weather, beach morphology) on the high-energy Gironde coast, southwest France. Six years (2011–2017) of boreal summer (15 June–15 September) surf zone injuries (SZIs) were analysed, comprising 442 (fatal and non-fatal) drownings caused by rip currents and 715 injuries caused by shore-break waves. Environmental conditions at the time of the SZIs were used to train two separate Bayesian networks (BNs), one for rip-current drownings and the other one for shore-break wave injuries. Each BN included two so-called “hidden” exposure and hazard variables, which are not observed yet interact with several of the observed (environmental) variables, which in turn limit the number of BN edges. Both BNs were tested for varying complexity using K-fold cross-validation based on multiple performance metrics. Results show a poor to fair predictive ability of the models according to the different metrics. Shore-break-related injuries appear more predictable than rip-current drowning incidents using the selected predictors within a BN, as the shore-break BN systematically performed better than the rip-current BN. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to address the influence of environmental data variables and their interactions on exposure, hazard and resulting life risk. Most of our findings are in line with earlier SZI and physical hazard-based work; that is, more SZIs are observed for warm sunny days with light winds; long-period waves, with specifically more shore-break-related injuries at high tide and for steep beach profiles; and more rip-current drownings near low tide with near-shore-normal wave incidence and strongly alongshore non-uniform surf zone morphology. The BNs also provided fresh insight, showing that rip-current drowning risk is approximately equally distributed between exposure (variance reduction Vr=14.4 %) and hazard (Vr=17.4 %), while exposure of water user to shore-break waves is much more important (Vr=23.5 %) than the hazard (Vr=10.9 %). Large surf is found to decrease beachgoer exposure to shore-break hazard, while this is not observed for rip currents. Rapid change in tide elevation during days with large tidal range was also found to result in more drowning incidents. We advocate that such BNs, providing a better understanding of hazard, exposure and life risk, can be developed to improve public safety awareness campaigns, in parallel with the development of more skilful risk predictors to anticipate high-life-risk days.

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Variables influencing preferences for stocks (high risk investment) vis-à-vis fixed deposits (low-risk investment)

International Journal of Law and Management ◽

10.1108/ijlma-07-2013-0032 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 56 (4) ◽

pp. 333-343 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Sangeeta Arora ◽

Kanika Marwaha

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Service Providers ◽

Weighted Average ◽

Important Variable ◽

Low Risk ◽

Individual Investors ◽

Content Type ◽

Significant Difference ◽

The Individual ◽

Risk Investment

Purpose – The paper, an exploratory attempt, aims to analyze the perception of individual investors of stock market of Punjab towards investing in stocks vis-à-vis fixed deposits. For the purpose, the most and least influencing variables affecting the decisions of individual stock investors to invest in stocks and fixed deposits were gauged and the comparison for such variables influencing their preferences was conducted. Design/methodology/approach – A pre-tested, well-structured questionnaire which was administered personally and the responses of 241 respondents were analyzed. The responses have been analyzed with the help of weighted average scores method used to identify the most and least influencing variables and paired sample t-test is applied to the data to identify if there exists any significant difference in the variables influencing the investment preferences for stocks (high-risk investment) vis-à-vis fixed deposits (low- and medium-risk investment). Findings – High returns was found as the most important variable while investing in stocks and stability of income as the most important variable while investing in fixed deposits. Religious reason is the only variable found as the least influencing variable for individual investors in Punjab while investing in both avenues, i.e. stocks and fixed deposits. Statistically significant difference exists in perception of individual investors for 22 variables towards the preference for stocks vis-à-vis fixed deposits. Practical implications – The current research will be helpful for financial service providers in understanding the investment preferences of the individual stock investors on the basis of variables influencing such preferences and suggest them investment options as per their perceptions and needs. Originality/value – This paper is a first of its kind to empirically compare the variables influencing the preferences for high-risk investments vis-à-vis low-risk investments of individual investors of Punjab, India and contributes to the understanding of the investor behaviour.

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Kidney Failure Risk Equation and Cost of Care in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology ◽

10.2215/cjn.06770521 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. CJN.06770521 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Bhanu Prasad ◽

Meric Osman ◽

Maryam Jafari ◽

Lexis Gordon ◽

Navdeep Tangri ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Prescription Drugs ◽

Kidney Failure ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Low Risk ◽

Content Type ◽

Physician Visits ◽

Risk Equation ◽

Risk Of Progression ◽

Risk Patients

Background and objectivesPatients with CKD exhibit heterogeneity in their rates of progression to kidney failure. The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) has been shown to accurately estimate progression to kidney failure in adults with CKD. Our objective was to determine health care utilization patterns of patients on the basis of their risk of progression.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults with CKD and eGFR of 15–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 enrolled in multidisciplinary CKD clinics in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada. Data were collected from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2012 and followed for 5 years (December 31, 2017). We stratified patients by eGFR and risk of progression and compared the number and cost of hospital admissions, physician visits, and prescription drugs.ResultsIn total, 1003 adults were included in the study. Within the eGFR of 15–29 ml/min per 1.73 m2 group, the costs of hospital admissions, physician visits, and drug dispensations over the 5-year study period comparing high-risk patients with low-risk patients were (Canadian dollars) $89,265 versus $48,374 (P=0.008), $23,423 versus $11,231 (P<0.001), and $21,853 versus $16,757 (P=0.01), respectively. Within the eGFR of 30–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 group, the costs of hospital admissions, physician visits, and prescription drugs were $55,944 versus $36,740 (P=0.10), $13,414 versus $10,370 (P=0.08), and $20,394 versus $14,902 (P=0.02) in high-risk patients in comparison with low-risk patients, respectively, for progression to kidney failure.ConclusionsIn patients with CKD and eGFR of 15–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 followed in multidisciplinary clinics, the costs of hospital admissions, physician visits, and drugs were higher for patients at higher risk of progression to kidney failure by the KFRE compared with patients in the low-risk category. The high-risk group of patients with CKD and eGFR of 15–29 ml/min per 1.73 m2 had stronger association with hospitalizations costs, physician visits, and drug utilizations.

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Asymmetric return response to expected risk: policy implications

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance ◽

10.1108/jfrc-01-2018-0004 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 27 (3) ◽

pp. 345-356

Author(s):

Mehmet F. Dicle ◽

Kendra Reed

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Research Effort ◽

Circuit Breaker ◽

Low Risk ◽

Policy Implications ◽

Investor Behavior ◽

Circuit Breakers ◽

Content Type ◽

Changes In Risk ◽

The Difference

Purpose As investors’ fear has an impact on their risk-return tradeoff, this fear leaves markets susceptible to sudden and large fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to suggest regulators to amend their precautionary methods to recognize the difference in investor behavior for high-risk periods versus low-risk periods. Design/methodology/approach The authors empirically show the difference in investor response to changes in expected risk as a function of level of risk. They then show different return patterns for high-risk and low-risk days. Their approach is implemented to evaluate whether investors’ reaction is the same to changes in risk during high-risk versus low-risk periods. Findings The results indicate that the negative return response to incremental increases in risk is significantly higher for periods of high versus low expected risk, with high defined as risk levels above long-run normal. Research limitations/implications Investors’ increased response to changes in risk exposes financial markets to higher likelihood of sudden and larger fluctuations during high-risk periods. Regulator-imposed circuit breakers are designed to protect markets against such market crashes. However, circuit breakers are not designed to account for investor behavior changes. The results show that circuit breakers should be different for high- versus low-risk periods. Practical implications A circuit breaker that is designed to protect investors against large drops should be amended to have a lower threshold during high-risk periods. Originality/value The contribution is, to the authors’ knowledge, the first research effort to evaluate the effects of differences in investor behavior on investor reactions and regulator imposed fail-safes. During the times of extreme market risk, the proposed changes may enable circuit breakers function their intended purposes.

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Low-risk investment strategy: sector bets or stock bets?

Managerial Finance ◽

10.1108/mf-09-2021-0415 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Shilpa Peswani ◽

Mayank Joshipura

Keyword(s):

Asset Pricing ◽

High Risk ◽

Investment Strategy ◽

Low Risk ◽

Investment Strategies ◽

Stock Level ◽

Content Type ◽

Risk Effect ◽

Value Effect ◽

Risk Investment

PurposeThe portfolio of low-risk stocks outperforms the portfolio of high-risk stocks and market portfolios on a risk-adjusted basis. This phenomenon is called the low-risk effect. There are several economic and behavioral explanations for the existence and persistence of such an effect. However, it is still unclear whether specific sector orientation drives the low-risk effect. The study seeks to answer the following important questions in Indian equity markets: (a) Whether sector bets or stock bets mainly drive the low-risk effect? (b) Is it a mere proxy for the well-known value effect? (c) Does the low-risk effect prevail in long-only portfolios?Design/methodology/approachThe study is based on all the listed stocks on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India from December 1994 to September 2018. It classifies them into 11 Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors to construct stock-level and sector-level BAB (Betting Against Beta) and long-only low-risk portfolios. It follows the study of Asness et al. (2014) to construct various BAB portfolios. It applies Fama–French (FF) three-factor and Fama–French–Carhart (FFC) four-factor asset pricing models in addition to Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to examine the strength of BAB, sector-level BAB, stock-level BAB and long-only low-beta portfolios.FindingsBoth sector- and stock-level bets contribute to the return of the low-risk investing strategy, but the stock-level effect is dominant. Only betting on safe sectors or industries will not earn economically significant alpha. The low-risk effect is unique and not a value effect in disguise. Both long-short and long-only portfolios within sectors and industry groups deliver positive excess returns. Consumer staples, financial, materials and healthcare sectors mainly contribute to the returns of the low-risk effect in India. This study offers empirical evidence against the Samuelson (1998) micro-efficient market given the strong performance of the stock-level low-risk effect.Practical implicationsThe superior performance of the low-risk investment strategies at both stock and sector levels offers investors an opportunity to strategically invest in stocks from the right sectors and earn high risk-adjusted returns with lower drawdowns over an entire market cycle. Besides, it paves the way for stock exchanges and index manufacturers to launch sector-specific low-volatility indices for relevant sectors. Passive funds can launch index funds and exchange-traded funds by tracking these indices. Active fund managers can espouse sector-specific low-risk investment strategies based on the results of this and similar other studies.Originality/valueThe study is the first of its kind. It offers insights into the portfolio characteristics and performance of the long-short and the long-only variant of low-risk portfolios within sectors and industry groups. It decomposes the low-risk effect into sector-level and stock-level effects.

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Webrooming or showrooming? The moderating effect of product attributes

Journal of Research in Interactive Marketing ◽

10.1108/jrim-08-2020-0161 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Yan Guo ◽

Min Zhang ◽

Valerie Lynette Wang

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Perceived Risk ◽

Single Channel ◽

Simultaneous Equation ◽

Low Risk ◽

Shopping Behavior ◽

Equation Modeling ◽

Product Attributes ◽

Content Type ◽

Consumer Responses

PurposeThis study examines consumers' channel attitudes and choices leading to webrooming and showrooming, and how product attributes (informational vs experiential and perceived risk) moderate the effects of channel attitudes.Design/methodology/approachA research framework is built upon the heterogeneity of channel attitudes, the lack of intrachannel lock-in and interchannel synergy. A questionnaire-based survey yields 868 multi-channel consumer responses in China. Simultaneous equation modeling and STATA 12.0 are used to test the hypotheses.FindingsConsumers webroom when buying high-risk informational products (e.g. personal computers or mobile phones). They webroom as well as showroom for high-risk experiential products (e.g. clothing or cosmetics). Moreover, a single channel is preferred to webrooming or showrooming for purchasing low-risk informational (e.g. books or stationery) and low-risk experiential (e.g. snacks or toys) products. The results also show that webrooming is more frequently used than showrooming by consumers.Research limitations/implicationsThis study extends current understanding on multi-channel and omnichannel shopping behavior and highlights the role of product attributes in customer journey mapping.Practical implicationsThis study offers retailers and other downstream firms a fresh perspective on multi-channel customer experience management and channel design.Originality/valueThis study offers a clear explanation on the commonalities and differences between webrooming and showrooming.

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A Bayesian network approach to modelling rip current drownings and shore-break wave injuries

10.5194/nhess-2021-36 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Elias de Korte ◽

Bruno Castelle ◽

Eric Tellier

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Network ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Surf Zone ◽

High Energy ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Tidal Range ◽

Boreal Summer ◽

Rip Current ◽

Rip Currents ◽

Awareness Campaigns

Abstract. A Bayesian network (BN) approach is used to model and predict shore-break related injuries and rip-current drowning incidents based on detailed environmental conditions (wave, tide, weather, beach morphology) on the high-energy Gironde coast, southwest France. Six years (2011–2017) of boreal summer (15 June–15 September) surf zone injuries (SZIs) were analysed, comprising 442 (fatal and non-fatal) drownings caused by rip currents and 715 injuries caused by shore-break waves. Environmental conditions at the time of the SZIs were used to train two separate Bayesian networks (BNs), one for rip current drownings and the other one for shore-break wave injuries, each one with a hidden hazard and exposure variables. Both BNs were tested for varying complexity using K-fold cross-validation based on multiple performance metrics. Validation (prediction) results slightly improve predictions of SZIs with a poor to fair skill based on a combination of different metrics. Shore-break related injuries appear more predictable than rip current drowning incidents as the shore-break BN systematically performed better than the rip current BN. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to address the influence of environmental data variables and their interactions on exposure, hazard and resulting life risk. Most of our findings are in line with earlier SZI and physical hazard-based work, that is, that more SZIs are observed for warm sunny days with light winds, long-period waves, with specifically more shore-break related injuries at high tide and for steep beach profiles, and more rip current drownings near low tide with near shore-normal wave incidence and strongly alongshore non-uniform surf zone morphology. The BNs also provided fresh insight, showing that rip current drowning risk is approximately equally distributed between exposure (variance reduction Vr = 14.4 %) and hazard (Vr = 17.4 %), while exposure of water user to shore-break waves is much more important (Vr = 23.5 %) than the hazard (Vr = 10.9 %). Large surf is found to decrease beachgoer exposure to shore-break hazard, while this is not observed for rip currents. Rapid change in tide elevation during days with large tidal range was also found to result in more drowning incidents, presumably because it favors the rapid onset of rip current activity and can therefore surprise unsuspecting bathers. We advocate that such BNs, providing a better understanding of hazard, exposure and life risk, can be developed to improve public safety awareness campaigns, in parallel with the development of more skillful risk predictors to anticipate high life-risk days.

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Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: How Radical Lymphadenectomy Should be Performed?

Swiss Surgery ◽

10.1024/1023-9332.9.2.63 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 63-68

Author(s):

Schweizer ◽

Seifert ◽

Gemsenjäger

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma ◽

Thyroid Carcinoma ◽

Low Risk ◽

Papillary Thyroid ◽

Sentinel Nodes ◽

Fand Sich ◽

Radical Lymphadenectomy ◽

N Status

Fragestellung: Die Bedeutung von Lymphknotenbefall bei papillärem Schilddrüsenkarzinom und die optimale Lymphknotenchirurgie werden kontrovers beurteilt. Methodik: Retrospektive Langzeitstudie eines Operateurs (n = 159), prospektive Dokumentation, Nachkontrolle 1-27 (x = 8) Jahre, Untersuchung mit Bezug auf Lymphknotenbefall. Resultate: Staging. Bei 42 Patienten wurde wegen makroskopischem Lymphknotenbefall (cN1) eine therapeutische Lymphadenektomie durchgeführt, mit pN1 Status bei 41 (98%) Patienten. Unter 117 Patienten ohne Anhalt für Lymphknotenbefall (cN0) fand sich okkulter Befall bei 5/29 (17%) Patienten mit elektiver (prophylaktischer) Lymphadenektomie, und bei 2/88 (2.3%) Patienten ohne Lymphadenektomie (metachroner Befall) (p < 0.005). Lymphknotenrezidive traten (1-5 Jahre nach kurativer Primärtherapie) bei 5/42 (12%) pN1 und bei 3/114 (2.6%) cN0, pN0 Tumoren auf (p = 0009). Das 20-Jahres-Überleben war bei TNM I + II (low risk) Patienten 100%, d.h. unabhängig vom N Status; pN1 vs. pN0, cN0 beeinflusste das Überleben ungünstig bei high risk (>= 45-jährige) Patienten (50% vs. 86%; p = 0.03). Diskussion: Der makroskopische intraoperative Lymphknotenbefund (cN) hat Bedeutung: - Befall ist meistens richtig positiv (pN1) und erfordert eine ausreichend radikale, d.h. systematische, kompartiment-orientierte Lymphadenektomie (Mikrodissektion) zur Verhütung von - kurablem oder gefährlichem - Rezidiv. - Okkulter Befall bei unauffälligen Lymphknoten führt selten zum klinischen Rezidiv und beeinflusst das Überleben nicht. Wir empfehlen eine weniger radikale (sampling), nur zentrale prophylaktische Lymphadenektomie, ohne Risiko von chirurgischer Morbidität. Ein empfindlicherer Nachweis von okkultem Befund (Immunhistochemie, Schnellschnitt von sampling Gewebe oder sentinel nodes) erscheint nicht rational. Bei pN0, cN0 Befund kommen Verzicht auf 131I Prophylaxe und eine weniger intensive Nachsorge in Frage.

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