Asymmetric return response to expected risk: policy implications

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-356
Author(s):  
Mehmet F. Dicle ◽  
Kendra Reed
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Circuit Breaker ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Investor Behavior ◽  
Circuit Breakers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Difference

Purpose As investors’ fear has an impact on their risk-return tradeoff, this fear leaves markets susceptible to sudden and large fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to suggest regulators to amend their precautionary methods to recognize the difference in investor behavior for high-risk periods versus low-risk periods. Design/methodology/approach The authors empirically show the difference in investor response to changes in expected risk as a function of level of risk. They then show different return patterns for high-risk and low-risk days. Their approach is implemented to evaluate whether investors’ reaction is the same to changes in risk during high-risk versus low-risk periods. Findings The results indicate that the negative return response to incremental increases in risk is significantly higher for periods of high versus low expected risk, with high defined as risk levels above long-run normal. Research limitations/implications Investors’ increased response to changes in risk exposes financial markets to higher likelihood of sudden and larger fluctuations during high-risk periods. Regulator-imposed circuit breakers are designed to protect markets against such market crashes. However, circuit breakers are not designed to account for investor behavior changes. The results show that circuit breakers should be different for high- versus low-risk periods. Practical implications A circuit breaker that is designed to protect investors against large drops should be amended to have a lower threshold during high-risk periods. Originality/value The contribution is, to the authors’ knowledge, the first research effort to evaluate the effects of differences in investor behavior on investor reactions and regulator imposed fail-safes. During the times of extreme market risk, the proposed changes may enable circuit breakers function their intended purposes.

scholarly journals Different Effects of Lifestyle Intervention in High- and Low-Risk Prediabetes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Fritsche ◽  
Robert Wagner ◽  
Martin Heni ◽  
Kostantinos Kantartzis ◽  
Jürgen Machann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Lifestyle Intervention ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Liver Fat ◽  
Liver Fat Content ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Prevention Of Diabetes

Lifestyle intervention (LI) can prevent type 2 diabetes, but response to LI varies depending on risk subphenotypes. We tested if prediabetic individuals with low risk benefit from conventional LI and individuals with high risk benefit from an intensification of LI in a multi-center randomized controlled intervention over 12 months with 2 years follow up. 1105 prediabetic individuals based on ADA glucose criteria were stratified into a high- and low-risk phenotype, based on previously described thresholds of insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity and liver fat content. Low-risk individuals were randomly assigned to conventional LI according to the DPP protocol or control (1:1), high-risk individuals to conventional or intensified LI with doubling of required exercise (1:1). A total of 908 (82%) participants completed the study. In high-risk individuals, the difference between conventional and intensified LI in post-challenge glucose change was -0.29 mmol/l [CI:-0.54;-0.04], p=0.025. Liver fat (-1.34 percentage points [CI:-2.17;-0.50], p=0.002) and cardiovascular risk (-1.82[CI:-3.13-0.50],p=0.007) underwent larger reductions with intensified than with conventional LI. During a follow up of 3 years, intensified compared to conventional LI had a higher probability to normalize glucose tolerance (p=0.008). In conclusion, it is possible in high-risk individuals with prediabetes to improve glycemic and cardiometabolic outcomes by intensification of LI. Individualized, risk-phenotype-based LI may be beneficial for the prevention of diabetes.

scholarly journals Different Effects of Lifestyle Intervention in High- and Low-Risk Prediabetes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Fritsche ◽  
Robert Wagner ◽  
Martin Heni ◽  
Kostantinos Kantartzis ◽  
Jürgen Machann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Lifestyle Intervention ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Liver Fat ◽  
Liver Fat Content ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Prevention Of Diabetes

Lifestyle intervention (LI) can prevent type 2 diabetes, but response to LI varies depending on risk subphenotypes. We tested if prediabetic individuals with low risk benefit from conventional LI and individuals with high risk benefit from an intensification of LI in a multi-center randomized controlled intervention over 12 months with 2 years follow up. 1105 prediabetic individuals based on ADA glucose criteria were stratified into a high- and low-risk phenotype, based on previously described thresholds of insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity and liver fat content. Low-risk individuals were randomly assigned to conventional LI according to the DPP protocol or control (1:1), high-risk individuals to conventional or intensified LI with doubling of required exercise (1:1). A total of 908 (82%) participants completed the study. In high-risk individuals, the difference between conventional and intensified LI in post-challenge glucose change was -0.29 mmol/l [CI:-0.54;-0.04], p=0.025. Liver fat (-1.34 percentage points [CI:-2.17;-0.50], p=0.002) and cardiovascular risk (-1.82[CI:-3.13-0.50],p=0.007) underwent larger reductions with intensified than with conventional LI. During a follow up of 3 years, intensified compared to conventional LI had a higher probability to normalize glucose tolerance (p=0.008). In conclusion, it is possible in high-risk individuals with prediabetes to improve glycemic and cardiometabolic outcomes by intensification of LI. Individualized, risk-phenotype-based LI may be beneficial for the prevention of diabetes.

scholarly journals Different Effects of Lifestyle Intervention in High- and Low-Risk Prediabetes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Fritsche ◽  
Robert Wagner ◽  
Martin Heni ◽  
Kostantinos Kantartzis ◽  
Jürgen Machann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Lifestyle Intervention ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Liver Fat ◽  
Liver Fat Content ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Prevention Of Diabetes

Lifestyle intervention (LI) can prevent type 2 diabetes, but response to LI varies depending on risk subphenotypes. We tested if prediabetic individuals with low risk benefit from conventional LI and individuals with high risk benefit from an intensification of LI in a multi-center randomized controlled intervention over 12 months with 2 years follow up. 1105 prediabetic individuals based on ADA glucose criteria were stratified into a high- and low-risk phenotype, based on previously described thresholds of insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity and liver fat content. Low-risk individuals were randomly assigned to conventional LI according to the DPP protocol or control (1:1), high-risk individuals to conventional or intensified LI with doubling of required exercise (1:1). A total of 908 (82%) participants completed the study. In high-risk individuals, the difference between conventional and intensified LI in post-challenge glucose change was -0.29 mmol/l [CI:-0.54;-0.04], p=0.025. Liver fat (-1.34 percentage points [CI:-2.17;-0.50], p=0.002) and cardiovascular risk (-1.82[CI:-3.13-0.50],p=0.007) underwent larger reductions with intensified than with conventional LI. During a follow up of 3 years, intensified compared to conventional LI had a higher probability to normalize glucose tolerance (p=0.008). In conclusion, it is possible in high-risk individuals with prediabetes to improve glycemic and cardiometabolic outcomes by intensification of LI. Individualized, risk-phenotype-based LI may be beneficial for the prevention of diabetes.

Variables influencing preferences for stocks (high risk investment) vis-à-vis fixed deposits (low-risk investment)

2014 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 333-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangeeta Arora ◽  
Kanika Marwaha
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Important Variable ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Risk Investment

Purpose – The paper, an exploratory attempt, aims to analyze the perception of individual investors of stock market of Punjab towards investing in stocks vis-à-vis fixed deposits. For the purpose, the most and least influencing variables affecting the decisions of individual stock investors to invest in stocks and fixed deposits were gauged and the comparison for such variables influencing their preferences was conducted. Design/methodology/approach – A pre-tested, well-structured questionnaire which was administered personally and the responses of 241 respondents were analyzed. The responses have been analyzed with the help of weighted average scores method used to identify the most and least influencing variables and paired sample t-test is applied to the data to identify if there exists any significant difference in the variables influencing the investment preferences for stocks (high-risk investment) vis-à-vis fixed deposits (low- and medium-risk investment). Findings – High returns was found as the most important variable while investing in stocks and stability of income as the most important variable while investing in fixed deposits. Religious reason is the only variable found as the least influencing variable for individual investors in Punjab while investing in both avenues, i.e. stocks and fixed deposits. Statistically significant difference exists in perception of individual investors for 22 variables towards the preference for stocks vis-à-vis fixed deposits. Practical implications – The current research will be helpful for financial service providers in understanding the investment preferences of the individual stock investors on the basis of variables influencing such preferences and suggest them investment options as per their perceptions and needs. Originality/value – This paper is a first of its kind to empirically compare the variables influencing the preferences for high-risk investments vis-à-vis low-risk investments of individual investors of Punjab, India and contributes to the understanding of the investor behaviour.

scholarly journals Experimental Investigation of the Prestrike Characteristics of a Double-Break Vacuum Circuit Breaker under DC Voltages

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3217
Author(s):  
Yun Geng ◽  
Xiaofei Yao ◽  
Jinlong Dong ◽  
Xue Liu ◽  
Yingsan Geng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Investigation ◽  
Direct Current ◽  
Experimental Work ◽  
Low Voltage ◽  
Circuit Breaker ◽  
Circuit Breakers ◽  
Vacuum Circuit Breaker ◽  
In Series ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Single Break

The prestrike phenomenon in vacuum circuit breakers (VCBs) is interesting but complicated. Previous studies mainly focus on the prestrike phenomenon in single-break VCBs. However, experimental work on prestrike characteristics of double-break VCBs cannot be found in literature. This paper aims to experimentally determine the probabilistic characteristics of prestrike gaps in a double-break VCB consisting of two commercial vacuum interrupters (VIs) in series under direct current (DC) voltages. As a benchmark, single-break prestrike gaps were measured by short-circuiting one of the VIs in a double break. The experimental results show that the 50% prestrike gap d50 of each VI in a double break, which is calculated with the complementary Weibull distribution, was significantly reduced by 25% to 72.7% compared with that in a single break. Due to the voltage-sharing effect in the double-break VCB, scatters in prestrike gaps of each VI in a double break was smaller than that in a single break. However, without the sharing-voltage effect, d50 of the low-voltage side in the double break was 65% higher than that of the same VI in the single break, which could be caused by the asynchronous property of mechanical actuators, the difference of the inherent prestrike characteristics of each VI and the unequal voltage-sharing ratio of VIs.

scholarly journals Kidney Failure Risk Equation and Cost of Care in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

2021 ◽  
pp. CJN.06770521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhanu Prasad ◽  
Meric Osman ◽  
Maryam Jafari ◽  
Lexis Gordon ◽  
Navdeep Tangri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prescription Drugs ◽  
Kidney Failure ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Physician Visits ◽  
Risk Equation ◽  
Risk Of Progression ◽  
Risk Patients

Background and objectivesPatients with CKD exhibit heterogeneity in their rates of progression to kidney failure. The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) has been shown to accurately estimate progression to kidney failure in adults with CKD. Our objective was to determine health care utilization patterns of patients on the basis of their risk of progression.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults with CKD and eGFR of 15–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 enrolled in multidisciplinary CKD clinics in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada. Data were collected from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2012 and followed for 5 years (December 31, 2017). We stratified patients by eGFR and risk of progression and compared the number and cost of hospital admissions, physician visits, and prescription drugs.ResultsIn total, 1003 adults were included in the study. Within the eGFR of 15–29 ml/min per 1.73 m2 group, the costs of hospital admissions, physician visits, and drug dispensations over the 5-year study period comparing high-risk patients with low-risk patients were (Canadian dollars) $89,265 versus $48,374 (P=0.008), $23,423 versus $11,231 (P<0.001), and $21,853 versus $16,757 (P=0.01), respectively. Within the eGFR of 30–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 group, the costs of hospital admissions, physician visits, and prescription drugs were $55,944 versus $36,740 (P=0.10), $13,414 versus $10,370 (P=0.08), and $20,394 versus $14,902 (P=0.02) in high-risk patients in comparison with low-risk patients, respectively, for progression to kidney failure.ConclusionsIn patients with CKD and eGFR of 15–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 followed in multidisciplinary clinics, the costs of hospital admissions, physician visits, and drugs were higher for patients at higher risk of progression to kidney failure by the KFRE compared with patients in the low-risk category. The high-risk group of patients with CKD and eGFR of 15–29 ml/min per 1.73 m2 had stronger association with hospitalizations costs, physician visits, and drug utilizations.

scholarly journals Research on the Difference Mechanism of High Voltage Circuit Breaker’s Opening/Closing Coil Current

2021 ◽  
Vol 261 ◽  
pp. 01014
Author(s):  
Yi Su ◽  
Yufeng Lu ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Xiajin Rao
Keyword(s):  
High Voltage ◽  
Circuit Breaker ◽  
Structural Difference ◽  
Circuit Breakers ◽  
Coil Current ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Operating Mechanism ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Protection And Control ◽  
And Control

High voltage circuit breakers are important protection and control equipment for the power grid. The defects and faults of the circuit breaker seriously affect the safety and stability of the power system. As the key component of the operating mechanism of the circuit breaker, the opening/closing coils contain a large amount of information about the operating status of the mechanism. In order to investigate the cause of the difference in the current waveforms, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the circuit breaker opening/closing coil current based on the actual high voltage circuit breaker, and distinguishes the characteristics of the current caused by the environmental difference and Structural difference. At the same time, the characteristics of coil current changes under four different types of mechanism defects are analyzed. These results lay the foundation for status evaluation of high voltage circuit breakers based on opening/closing coil current.

scholarly journals Behavioral finance: the analysis of investor behavior based on belief and feeling and the investor rationality towards LQ 45 stocks

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 292-298
Author(s):  
Etty Indriani ◽  
Cahyani Tunggal Sari
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Investor Behavior ◽  
Average Return ◽  
High Return ◽  
The Relationship

This research analyzes behavioral finance, especially the behavior of investors in Yogyakarta, Indonesia Region. The performance of investor behavior is examined based on the LQ 45 stocks return on Indonesia Stock Exchange and questionnaires that are spread out to five securities agents in Yogyakarta.The performance of LQ 45 stocks return is compared to the questionnaire analysis in the “Belief” part at the first and second stages. The first result shows that LQ 45 stocks are profitable. It can be seen from the average return of the stocks that it has positive value and is statistically identical with the LQ 45 index return. This result is in line with the investors’ opinion that LQ 45 stocks are profitable. The second result shows that most of LQ 45 stocks are profitable and give high return. But, this result is also contrary to the opinion of investors towards traditional finance paradigm that investors still believe “high risk – high return, low risk – low return”. Although most of LQ 45 stocks are considered as low risk stocks, many investors prefer to choose LQ 45 stocks. It means that the traditional finance paradigm has weakness. It is proven that investors sometimes act irrationally.The third and fourth stages of the study are aimed to analyze the relationship between feeling and belief towards frequency of transaction each day based on the questionnaire using regression analysis. The result shows that there is significant relationship between feeling and frequency of transaction each day.

scholarly journals Pentraxin-3 Levels Relate to the Wells Score and Prognosis in Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haotian Yang ◽  
Jun Zhang ◽  
Ying Huan ◽  
Yawei Xu ◽  
Rong Guo
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Acute Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Recurrent Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Wells Score ◽  
The Difference

Objective. To investigate the value of the PTX-3 test in evaluating the prognosis of acute pulmonary embolism (APE). Method. 117 APE patients were selected and divided into two groups according to plasma PTX-3 levels, including the group in which PTX−3≥3.0 ng/mL (n=42) and the group in which PTX−3<3.0 ng/mL (n=75). Patients were stratified into high-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk groups according to the Wells scores, and the PTX-3 levels were compared among the groups. Patients had been followed-up as well. Results. According to the Wells scores, 11 patients were classified as high-risk (9.4%) and 68 were medium-risk (58.1%), while 38 were low-risk (32.5%). The PTX-3 levels in different risk groups were statistically different (all P<0.05). During the follow-up period, 6 deaths occurred in the group with elevated PTX-3 (≥3.0 ng/mL), while 2 deaths occurred in the group with nonelevated PTX-3 (<3.0 ng/mL). The difference between the two groups was statistically significant (P<0.01). 13 patients were hospitalized due to recurrent pulmonary embolism, of which 12 were in the group with elevated PTX-3 (≥3.0 ng/mL), while 1 patient was in the group with nonelevated PTX-3 (<3.0 ng/mL). The difference was statistically significant (P<0.01). Conclusion. The plasma PTX-3 level in APE patients is correlated with PE risk stratification. There is a significant correlation between PTX-3 levels and PE-related cardiac deaths, as well as the prognosis of recurrent PE. PTX-3 can be used as a clinical indicator of PE prognosis.

Detection of multidrug-resistant, gene-related proteins for postoperative individualized chemotherapy of gastric cancer.

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 156-156
Author(s):  
Pengfei Yu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Adjuvant Chemotherapy ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Topo Ii

156 Background: Postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy was beneficial for some patients,however, it may increase the treatment burden and reduce the immunity of other patients. Screening appropriate patients based on molecular markers for individualized adjuvant chemotherapy was necessary. Methods: Between June 2002 to June 2004, 119 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy were retrospectively analyzed. 61 patients had adjuvant chemotherapy based on platinum and 5-FU for 4 to 6 cycles. ToPo II negative, MRP positive and GST-π positive were regarded as three risk factors which may be associated with chemotherapy resistance and poor prognosis. Patients were divided into two groups: high-risk group (≥2 risk factors) and the low-risk group (<2 risk factors), and the tumor recurrence and patients’ survival time of the two groups were analyzed. Results: The average recurrence time of the low-risk group was significantly longer than that of the high-risk group (21.29 ± 11.10 VS 15.16 ± 8.05 months ,p<0.01).The 3-year and 5-year survival rate of the high-risk group was 57.4% and 42.6%, however, it had no significant difference compared to 66.2% and 58.5% of the low-risk group (P> 0.05). In the high-risk group, the 3-year survival rate of patients with/without chemotherapy were 62.1% and 52.0%, 5-year survival rates were 44.8% and 40.0%, but the difference was not statistically significant (P> 0.05). In the low-risk group, the 3-year survival rate of patients with/without chemotherapy were 81.2% and 51.5%, 5-year survival rates were 71.9% and 45.5%, and the difference was statistically significant (p<0.05). Conclusions: Combined determination of MDR-related proteins ToPo II, MRP and GST-π may be prospectively valuable for optimizing the chemotherapy regimes, and further predicting the outcomes of gastric cancer patients.

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