Integrating stated preference methods for property valuations in housing markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 474-486
Author(s):  
Saverio Miccoli ◽  
Fabrizio Finucci ◽  
Rocco Murro

Purpose The study aims to propose an appraisal procedure based on the preferences stated by a sample of potential consumers and producers which makes it possible to obtain the hypothetical demand and supply curves and to estimate the most likely market value and transaction quantities for housing markets with unrevealed prices. Design/methodology/approach The procedure is divided into two steps: the first is aimed at selecting the alternatives that are most likely to meet the market’s preference by applying discrete choice (DC) analysis; the second makes it possible to estimate the potential demand and supply curves for the preferable alternatives singled out through DC analysis by using contingent valuation methods. Findings The results obtained considering only the hypothetical demand or the hypothetical supply differ by an average of 10 per cent from the actual sale price. Conversely, the values detected as the intersection of the hypothetical demand curve and the hypothetical supply curve, fall into variation margins that can be considered fully acceptable in real estate appraisal Originality/value As opposed to the applications performed in international real estate operations where reference is made solely to the potential demand estimate, the described procedure estimates the transaction value as the intersection between the hypothetical demand and supply curves, for the purposes of keeping account of the conditions that generally occur in the real market. Furthermore, it is possible to detect the incidence of the characteristics in market price formation, and to identify the market share of possible alternative assets and estimate the optimal quantity to be produced.

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 754-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria ◽  
Nelson Leitão Paes ◽  
Marcelo Eduardo Alves Silva

Purpose Housing prices in Brazil have displayed an impressive growth in recent years, raising some concerns about the existence of a bubble in housing markets. In this paper, the authors implement an empirical methodology to identify whether or not there is a bubble in housing markets in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach Based on a theoretical model that establish that, in the absence of a bubble, a long-run equilibrium relationship should be observed between the market price of an asset and its dividends. The authors implement two methodologies. First, the authors assess whether there is a cointegration relationship between housing prices and housing rental prices. Second, the authors test whether the price-to-rent ratio is stationary. Findings The authors’ results show that there is evidence of a bubble in housing prices in Brazil. However, given the short span of the data, the authors perform a Monte Carlo simulation and show that the cointegration tests may be biased in small samples. Therefore, the authors should be caution when assessing the results. Research limitations/implications The results obtained from the cointegration analysis can be biased for small samples. Practical implications The information on the excessive increase of the prices of the properties in relation to their fundamental value can help in the decision-making on investment of the economic agents. Social implications These results corroborate the hypothesis that Brazil has an excessive appreciation in housing prices, and, as Silva and Besarria (2018) have suggested, this behavior explains, in part, the fact that the central bank has taken this issue into account when deciding about the stance of monetary policy of Brazil. Originality/value The originality is linked to the use of the Gregory-Hansen method of cointegration in the identification of bubbles and discussion of the limitations of the research through Monte Carlo simulation.


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 575-596
Author(s):  
Jonas Hahn ◽  
Jens Hirsch ◽  
Sven Bienert

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of distinct types of heating technology and their price impact in German residential real estate markets, considering a wide range of other housing market determinants. The authors aim to test and to verify specifically, whether the obsolescence of heating technology leads to a significant price discount and whether higher technological standards (and environmental friendliness) come with a price premium on the market.Design/methodology/approachThe authors create housing market models for rental and sales segments by constructing generalized additive models with explicit multi-layered spatial components. To elaborate a profound and contemporary answer using these models, the authors perform large-sample regression analyses based on more than 400,000 observations covering German residential properties in 2015.FindingsFirst and foremost, the heating system indeed shows significant explanatory importance for measuring housing rents and purchasing price. Second, the authors find that it makes a difference whether clean “green” technologies are implemented or whether “brown” systems with obsolete technology or fossil energy sources is on hand. Ultimately, the authors conclude that while low energy consumption indeed comes with a price premium, this needs to be interpreted together with the property’s heating type, as housing markets seem to outweigh the “green premium” by “brown discounts” if low energy consumption figures are powered by a certain type of heating technology system.Research limitations/implicationsAside of a possible omitted variable bias, the main research limitation is constituted by the integration of asking prices in the analysis, as actual transaction prices are not systematically transparent on national level in Germany. Limitations are discussed at the end of the paper.Practical implicationsThis work supports investors who face the challenge of making environmental- and energy-related decisions as well as appraisers who deliver financial fundamentals for such. Third, the paper supports both asset managers as well as investment strategists in argumentation pro-environmental investments beyond all ecological necessity.Social implicationsThis paper contributes to the current discussion on climate change and the eclectic role of real estate in this context. The authors deliver evidence on pricing effects as a measure of socioeconomic acceptance of progressive heating technology and environmental friendliness as an imperative of twenty-first century societies.Originality/valueThis is the first study on “green premiums” or “brown discounts” that includes heating technology as a potential and distinct driver of value and rents. It is a contemporary contribution and delivers original information on the quantitative impact of contemporary and anachronistic technology in heating to researchers as well as investors and appraisers.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marsela Thanasi (Boçe)

Purpose The approved methodology of property valuation in Albania evaluates the reference property prices based on the average contractual price of properties sold and takes into account only factors such as price, square meters of living and location of property. Simple method is the one used on evaluating the reference price for a group of properties with similar characteristics. The purpose of this study is, by building a hedonistic pricing model for apartments in Tirana, to prove empirically that in addition to location, there are other characteristics that affect the value of apartments. Design/methodology/approach The capital city is chosen as a case study for the construction of a hedonistic pricing model. In the database were included detailed characteristics of 1,421 apartments. Multiple regression analysis was chosen in this model as a method to test hypotheses about the causal relationship between house value Y and independent variables XS, representing the characteristics of the property. Population equation parameters β0, β1, β2 […], βn. were evaluated by the ordinary least squares method. Selection of α-standard is 5 per cent, taking into account the significant number of observations and the degree of regression freedom. Findings Based on this study, it was proved empirically that the characteristics of the apartments as square meters of living, number of rooms, access to parking, furniture, view and surface of living affect their price. As a literature review showed, location is the most important variable that affects the value. Results showed that the marginal effect that the number of rooms has on the apartment value depends on the square meters of living of the apartment. In the same line, the effect of the square meters of living on value depends on the square meters, as the relationship between these variables is nonlinear and depends more on the number of rooms. Research limitations/implications It was impossible to find the information on property sales contracts. That is why this study was oriented toward the market and took into account the properties offered for sale at one of the biggest real estate agency “Çelësi”. More accurate information regarding properties characteristics could be obtained. The information was limited and depended on the best apartment characteristics that potential sellers wanted to advertise. On the other side, contractual sales price is oriented by the reference price, so, the applied methodology has resulted in better evaluations of real estate prices, which reflect the market price. Practical implications This study is conducted as an applicable research. After analyzing the property valuation system in Albania, the study recommends the change of the method used on apartment valuation. Improvement of the property valuation system requires first of all creation of a complete and updated database for all real estate sales. Social implications Property valuation is a very important function of the land administration system which directly affects people’s life. Property evaluation for different purposes like tax evaluation, compensation and expropriation is a process that must be designed using an equal, transparent and well-accepted methodology by all. Promotion of property valuation system development is helpful to various interest groups in society, as it can reduce the risk of investment in this sector and encourages lower rates of interest on loans. Originality/value To the author's knowledge, the hedonic model is not applied on the Albanian housing market, thus providing encouragement to deepen the study in this regard. The study is original and has a very important impact on policymakers to change the actual property valuation methodology to obtain more accurate property values.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alper Ozun ◽  
Hasan Murat Ertugrul ◽  
Yener Coskun

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce an empirical model for house price spillovers between real estate markets. The model is presented by using data from the US-UK and London-New York housing markets over a period of 1975Q1-2016Q1 by employing both static and dynamic methodologies. Design/methodology/approach The research analyzes long-run static and dynamic spillover elasticity coefficients by employing three methods, namely, autoregressive distributed lag, the fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least squares estimator under a Kalman filter approach. The empirical method also investigates dynamic correlation between the house prices by employing the dynamic control correlation method. Findings The paper shows how a dynamic spillover pricing analysis can be applied between real estate markets. On the empirical side, the results show that country-level causality in housing prices is running from the USA to UK, whereas city-level causality is running from London to New York. The model outcomes suggest that real estate portfolios involving US and UK assets require a dynamic risk management approach. Research limitations/implications One of the findings is that the dynamic conditional correlation between the US and the UK housing prices is broken during the crisis period. The paper does not discuss the reasons for that break, which requires further empirical tests by applying Markov switching regime shifts. The timing of the causality between the house prices is not empirically tested. It can be examined empirically by applying methods such as wavelets. Practical implications The authors observed a unidirectional causality from London to New York house prices, which is opposite to the aggregate country-level causality direction. This supports London’s specific power in the real estate markets. London has a leading role in the global urban economies residential housing markets and the behavior of its housing prices has a statistically significant causality impact on the house prices of New York City. Social implications The house price co-integration observed in this research at both country and city levels should be interpreted as a continuity of real estate and financial integration in practice. Originality/value The paper is the first research which applies a dynamic spillover analysis to examine the causality between housing prices in real estate markets. It also provides a long-term empirical evidence for a dynamic causal relationship for the global housing markets.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Alqi Naqellari

In this paper is analyzed the demand and supply side from the perspective of Marxist theory. The supply and demand side is both analyzed with their respective characteristics in capitalism, socialism and in a mixed economy. The possibilities of a macroeconomic equilibrium by considering the following concepts such as commodity, value, price, profit are analyzed. The aim of this paper is: to develop through a non-exhaustive analysis, the common features and differences between macroeconomic models of the aggregate market in the two systems, to build the aggregate market of a macroeconomic model by taking into account these characteristics and to emphasize its importance for the economy. In conclusion, differences between concepts related to macroeconomic equilibrium were identified. A new equilibrium model for the socialist and capitalist model was built. In centralized economies, demand and supply curve lies in a parallel curve with the X-axis, were domestic product is placed. In the market economy model, the demand and supply curve has a positive slope and stretch simultaneously over the market price line. They do not intersect with each other as in the Classical and Keynesian model. This market model applies to the economy. It allows governments, central banks, research institutions, universities, various researchers, etc. to analyze macroeconomic indicators. In this paper, the model is applied to the Albanian economy. In this paper, we used the methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison and description, the method of creating virtual market models, etc.


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harish Kumar Singla

PurposeThis study aims to investigate whether intellectual capital (IC) and its subcomponents enhance value and improve the profitability of real estate (RE) and infrastructure (INF) firms in India. In this study, IC is measured through the value-added intellectual coefficient (VAIC) model. The study further extends the VAIC model by incorporating an additional component of social welfare efficiency (SWE).Design/methodology/approachThe study uses the panel data investigation based on the data of 63 firms (22 RE and 41 INF firms), for a period of 10 years (2008–2017). The dependent variables in the study are return on assets (ROA) and market price to book value ratio (PB), whereas the independent variables are VAIC and its components. The panel is tested for stationarity, heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity problems. Finally, to account for heteroscedasticity and endogeneity, Arellano and Bond's (1991) panel regression estimator with robust estimates are used.FindingsThe findings of the study suggest that IC has a significant influence on the profitability and value of infra firms, whereas capital-employed efficiency (CEE) positively affects the profitability of both RE and INF firms.Originality/valueThe study is an attempt to find the effect of IC and its components on profitability and value of RE and INF firms in India. The author has also extended the VAIC model, which was introduced by Pulic (2000), by adding an additional IC component, i.e. SWE. The study uses Arellano and Bond's (1991) panel regression estimator with robust estimates, which helps produce robust results.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilo Vargas Walteros ◽  
Amalia Novoa Hoyos ◽  
Albert Dario Arias Ardila ◽  
Arnold Steven Peña Ballesteros

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide an estimate of the demand and supply in the housing market in Colombia in a period of high real estate valuation (2005-2016). On the demand side, it evaluates the impact of new housing prices, unemployment, stock market returns, real wages in the retail sector, remittances and mortgage rates. On the supply side, it estimates the influence of the price of new housing, construction costs, time deposit (TD) and mortgage rates. Real estate valuation was analyzed considering foreigners migration and land prices evolution. Design/methodology/approach Ordinary least squares (OLS) was used to estimate housing area with the semilog regression model and also to construct price models. OLS was also used in price models. Since quantities depend on prices and vice versa, a two-stage least squares (2SLS) was implemented. Findings Rising prices in new homes have an “elastic” effect on both demand and even higher effect on supply. Likewise, the real wage index for the retail sector has an elastic effect. On the other hand, the response to interest rates is negative, but statistically significant only on the supply side. Furthermore, the inflow of remittances is “inelastic” and statistically insignificant. Originality/value Housing can sometimes be a Giffen good, this result challenges the traditional neoclassical model, but it can be explained by investment reasons and “bubble” behavior in the housing market. One last influence is the difference between “temporary” and “permanent” migrations. The latter has a statistically significant and perfectly inelastic effect on the price of new homes.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiying Hou ◽  
Hao Wu

PurposeForeign firms entering into the domestic real estate industry and foreign investment control are significant in global hot markets such as Australia. Despite their market impact and policy sensitivity, developer choice is rarely studied. The purpose of this paper is to study domestic and overseas property developers for their motive and preference in response to market growth and market barriers including regulatory constraint.Design/methodology/approachInternational trade theory suggests local and overseas firms can vary significantly for their risk profile when engaging in location-specific development opportunities. Using a comprehensive decision factor system for the residential development process, the authors conducted an experimental survey to collect the prime data to measure stated preference of domestic and overseas developers in the context of the Melbourne residential market.FindingsResults suggest high consistency between the samples of domestic and overseas developers. Possible explanations include vertical integration by innovative contracting, strict regulatory constraint dictates domestic and overseas firms’ preference or sample selection bias. This micro-analysis of developer stated preference highlights their entrepreneurial ability to combine substitution and integration for innovative contractual strategy. This ability to join asset holding and project management enables firm flexibility to mitigate business risk in rapidly globalising capital and factor markets.Practical implicationsThese insights of firm-level decision making contribute to the decision literature of real estate developers and are relevant to the broader literature of industrial economics and international trade. Government may evaluate policy strategies based on the explicit entrepreneur (e.g. developer) preference for their “comparative advantage”.Originality/valueThis paper highlights developer’s ability to jointly consider investment and project management for decision making. It found that other than political cost such as national interest and domestic interest group pressure, domestic and overseas developers in the Melbourne residential market actually think quite alike. It suggests that irrespective of property ownership conditions, market integration occurs in the Melbourne residential sector.


2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Sharam ◽  
Lyndall Bryant

Purpose Digital disruption offers an innovative opportunity to address housing affordability issues through the use of market design theory and two-sided matching markets. The purpose of this paper is to scope a model for how “uberisation” can revolutionise the traditional apartment delivery model in Australia, leading to improved housing affordability. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses semi-structured interviews with operators of online real estate platforms and deliberative developers to examine how the principles of “uberisation”, that is two-sided matching markets, are driving innovation in the apartment supply process. Findings Findings confirm that real estate internet platforms and deliberative developers innovators are informed by the benefits of aggregating demand to reduce development risk, thus enabling apartments to be provided at a substantially lower price than by traditional methods. Research limitations/implications The number of interviews is small reflecting the limited number of market actors currently engaged in the innovations investigated. Originality/value This research is innovative as it introduces theoretical understandings gained from market design theory and applies those concepts to disrupt the apartment development process.


Subject Global property prices. Significance House prices have surged in the last five years, mostly in high-income economies where demand has rebounded after falling in the aftermath of the 2008-09 recession. Adjusted for inflation, house prices rose steadily across the world between 2013 and 2018, raising concerns about the downside risks associated with overvaluations. Impacts Housing markets are difficult to tune; lenient policies aimed at supporting immediate activity will increase longer-run risks. Real estate markets are becoming more synchronised, and more exposed to common downside risks if global financial flows drop. Cities and financial centres in advanced and emerging nations are most exposed as they enjoy more flows of volatile capital.


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