An examination of house price bubble in the real estate sector: the case of a small island economy – Fiji

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsin Khan ◽  
Rup Singh ◽  
Arvind Patel ◽  
Devendra Kumar Jain
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
House Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Bubble ◽  
House Price Bubble

Purpose This paper aims to assess the equilibrium house price in the city of Suva (Fiji) and to analyse the house price bubble in the Fiji housing market. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts a time series approach to determine the presence of house price bubbles in Fiji over the period from 1988 to 2018. Findings The findings suggest that real income, land cost, building material price, inflation rate, volatility, household size and wealth have a positive impact on house prices, whereas user cost of capital and political disturbances have a negative impact. The findings further indicate that the Fijis’ housing market does not constitute any house price bubble. Practical implications This paper draws policy implications for a small developing state (Fiji) and other similar economies. Originality/value The price bubble in the Fiji housing market is analysed for the first time. This paper develops a comprehensive empirical approach to assess the equilibrium-housing price in Fiji.

scholarly journals ARIMA modelling of Lithuanian house price index

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arvydas Jadevicius ◽  
Simon Huston
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Market Price ◽  
House Price ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Series Modelling ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Modelling Approach

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate Lithuanian house price changes. Its twin motivations are the importance of information on future house price movements to sector stakeholders and the limited number of related Lithuanian property market studies. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs ARIMA modelling approach. It assesses whether past is a good predictor of the future. It then examines issues relating to an application of this univariate time-series modelling technique in a forecasting context. Findings – As the results of the study suggest, ARIMA is a useful technique to assess broad market price changes. Government and central bank can use ARIMA modelling approach to forecast national house price inflation. Developers can employ this methodology to drive successful house-building programme. Investor can incorporate forecasts from ARIMA models into investment strategy for timing purposes. Research limitations/implications – Certainly, there are number of limitations attached to this particular modelling approach. Firm predictions about house price movements are also a challenge, as well as more research needs to be done in establishing a dynamic interrelationship between macro variables and the Lithuanian housing market. Originality/value – Although the research focused on Lithuania, the findings extend to global housing market. ARIMA house price modelling provides insights for a spectrum of stakeholders. The use of this modelling approach can be employed to improve monetary policy oversight, facilitate planning for infrastructure or social housing as a countercyclical policy and mitigate risk for investors. What is more, a greater appreciation of Lithuania housing market can act as a bellwether for real estate markets in other trade-exposed small country economies.

Assessing Dutch housing cycle and near-term market prospects

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-270
Author(s):  
Arvydas Jadevicius ◽  
Peter van Gool
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dutch Housing ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Uk

Purpose This study is a practice undertaking examining three main concerns that currently dominate Dutch housing market debate: how long is the cycle, will the current house price inflation continue and is housing market in a bubble. With national house prices reaching record highs across all major cities, future market prospects became a topic of significant debate among policymakers, investors and the populace. Design/methodology/approach A triangulation of well-established academic methods is used to perform investigation. The models include Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, volatility autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH approximation) and right tail augmented Dickey–Fuller (Rtadf) test (bubble screening technique). Findings Interestingly, over the years from 1985 to 2019 research period, filtering extracts only one Dutch national housing cycle. This is a somewhat distinct characteristic compared to other advanced Western economies (inter alia the UK and the USA) where markets tend to experience 8- to 10-year gyrations. Volatility and Rtadf test suggest that current house prices in most Dutch cities are in excess of historical averages and statistical thresholds. House price levels in Almere, Amsterdam, The Hague, Groningen, Rotterdam and Utrecht are of particular concern. Originality/value Retail investors should therefore be cautious as they are entering the market at the time of elevated housing values. For institutional investors, those investing in long-term, housing in key Dutch metropolitan areas, even if values decline, is still an attractive investment conduit.

Good Inflation, Bad Inflation: The Housing Boom, Economic Growth and the Disaggregation of Inflationary Preferences in the UK and Ireland

2009 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 461-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Hay
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
House Price ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Mortgage Interest ◽  
Price Bubble ◽  
Housing Boom ◽  
Time Inconsistent ◽  
The Uk ◽  
House Price Bubble

This article presents a comparative analysis of the determinants, sustenance and broader macroeconomic consequences of the ultimately unsustainable housing boom in Ireland and the UK in recent years. It examines, in particular, the role played by ostensibly depoliticised monetary policy in both contexts in the development of a house price bubble that has served to fuel consumer-led growth. It assesses the viability, sustainability and reproducibility of the private debt-financed consumer boom that house price inflation has generated. In the process it draws attention to the increasingly differentiated character of both government inflationary preferences and counter-inflationary performance—with the shift to official measures of inflation that exclude mortgage interest repayments and, in the UK at least, to the covert re-politicisation of monetary policy. It concludes by suggesting that governments may well not have time-inconsistent inflationary preferences so much as sectorally specific inflationary preferences. This might be summarised in terms of the aphorism: ‘retail price inflation bad, house price inflation good’.

Macroeconomic drivers of London house prices

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 539-551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petros Stavrou Sivitanides
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to validate and quantify the effect of key macroeconomic drivers on London house prices using annual data over the period 1983–2016. Design/methodology/approach Within this context, the authors estimate alternative error-correction and partial-adjustment models (PAMs), which have been widely used in the empirical literature in modelling the slow adjustments of house prices to demand and supply shocks. Findings The results verify the existence of a strong long-term relationship between London house prices and key macroeconomic variables, such as UK GDP, London population and housing completions. A key finding of the study relevant to the debate on the causes of the housing affordability crisis is that the results provide little evidence in support of the argument that user demand, which is captured in the author’s model by Greater London population, may have had a diminished role in driving house price inflation in London. Practical implications The practical and policy implications of the results are that increased homebuilding activity in London will undoubtedly help limit house price increases. Also, any potential reduction of immigration and economic growth due to Brexit will also have a similar effect. Originality/value The originality of this research lies in the use of annual data that may better capture the long-term effect of macroeconomic drivers on house prices and the estimation of such effects through both error-correction and partial-adjustment models.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of House Price Bubble: A Case Study of Beijing Housing Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Dong Chen ◽  
Christopher Gan ◽  
Baiding Hu ◽  
David A. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
House Price ◽  
Price Bubble ◽  
House Price Bubble

The Impact of the Business Environment on the Formalization of Informal Firms. The Case of Kosovo

Südosteuropa ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 505-529
Author(s):  
Kujtim Zylfijaj ◽  
Dimitar Nikoloski ◽  
Nadine Tournois
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Characteristics Analysis ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe research presented here investigates the impact of the business environment on the formalization of informal firms, using firm-level data for 243 informal firms in Kosovo. The findings indicate that business-environment variables such as limited access to financing, the cost of financing, the unavailability of subsidies, tax rates, and corruption have a significant negative impact on the formalization of informal firms. In addition, firm-level characteristics analysis suggests that the age of the firm also exercises a significant negative impact, whereas sales volume exerts a significant positive impact on the formalization of informal firms. These findings have important policy implications and suggest that the abolition of barriers preventing access to financing, as well as tax reforms and a consistent struggle against corruption may have a positive influence on the formalization of informal firms. On the other hand, firm owners should consider formalization to be a means to help them have greater opportunities for survival and growth.

scholarly journals The role and significance of planning in the determination of house prices in Australia: Recent policy debates

2021 ◽  
pp. 0308518X2198894
Author(s):  
Peter Phibbs ◽  
Nicole Gurran
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Urban Housing ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Depth Analysis

On the world stage, Australian cities have been punching above their weight in global indexes of housing prices, sparking heated debates about the causes of and remedies for, sustained house price inflation. This paper examines the evidence base underpinning such debates, and the policy claims made by key commentators and stakeholders. With reference to the wider context of Australia’s housing market over a 20 year period, as well as an in depth analysis of a research paper by Australia’s central Reserve Bank, we show how economic theories commonly position land use planning as a primary driver of new supply constraints but overlook other explanations for housing market behavior. In doing so, we offer an alternative understanding of urban housing markets and land use planning interventions as a basis for more effective policy intervention in Australian and other world cities.

Vendors’ team performance in software outsourcing projects

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Qu ◽  
Lishan Shen ◽  
Xiaona Bao
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Transfer ◽  
Team Performance ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Project Success ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Coordination Mechanism ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Software Outsourcing

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study how the software outsourcing teams, namely, vendors, transfer effective knowledge to enhance team performance; it reports on a study of transactive memory system (TMS) theory and makes deep analyses and discussions about the influence of the cooperative behaviors of TMS on software outsourcing team’s performance under the framework of three behavioral characteristics dimensions – specialization, credibility and coordination. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is an empirical study based on investigation interviews to 28 software outsourcing teams and data of questionnaire surveys on 124 software outsourcing teams; structural equation model is used to test the data we collected. Findings – This paper finds that both credibility and coordination have a significantly positive impact on knowledge transfer and project success, whereas specialization has a significant negative impact on project success. The results of data analysis show that TMS is an effective coordination mechanism. Originality/value – The conclusion of the study can help us understand the coordination mechanism of knowledge transfer in software outsourcing team and provide theoretical support and paradigm reference for vendors in China to accumulate knowledge and improve the success rate of projects in the context of software project development.

Entrepreneurship in regions: differentiated impacts of the socio cultural and gender types

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Mancilla ◽  
José Ernesto Amorós
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Fear Of Failure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reference Models ◽  
Cultural Aspects ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Secondary City

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the differentiated impact of factors that influence the propensity to entrepreneur in a sample of people in Chile. A distinction is made between individuals that live in primary cities and secondary cities. The differentiating factors are socio‐cultural aspects (reference models – positive examples of entrepreneurs – and perception of social fear of failure) and the gender of the individual. Design/methodology/approach For the research data from the survey used in Chile by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor for the years 2010 and 2011 were used. A logit model was used to determine the differentiated impact of the analysed factors and interactions were done using the method proposed by Corneliâen and Sonderhof (2009). Findings These showed that the fact that an individual lives in a secondary city decreases his entrepreneurship probability. The positive impact that the reference models have is weaker in women. Contrary to what was expected, the negative impact of the fear of failure perception is weaker in women. Practical implications These results have the implications to suggest focused public policies and differentiations that consider the socio‐cultural, territorial (focused in cities) and gender aspects. Originality/value The research contributes by giving empirical evidence of the existence of the negative impact of living in a secondary city and of differentiated effects of socio‐cultural factors from the gender perspective.

A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of housing market: a role of financial crises in developed economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ali Raza ◽  
Nida Shah ◽  
Muhammad Tahir Suleman ◽  
Md Al Mamun
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
House Price ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After

Purpose This study aims to examine the house price fluctuations in G7 countries by using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) for the years 1970–2019. The study examined the market efficiency between the short-term and long-term in the full sample period, before and after the global financial crisis period. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the MF-DFA to analyze house price fluctuations. Findings The findings confirmed that the housing market series are multifractal. Furthermore, all the markets showed long-term persistence in both the short and long-term. The USA is identified as the most persistent house market in the short run and Japan in the long run. Moreover, in terms of efficiency, Canada is identified as the most efficient house market in the long run and the UK in the short run. Finally, the result of before and after the financial crisis period is consistent with the full sample result. Originality/value The contribution of this study in the literature is fourfold. This is the first study that has examined the house prices efficiency by using the MF-DFA technique given by Kantelhardt et al. (2002). Previously, the house market prices and efficiency has been investigated using generalized Hurst exponent (Liu et al., 2019), Quantile Regression Approach (Chae and Bera, 2019; Tiwari et al., 2019) but no study to the best of the knowledge has been done that has used the MF-DFA technique on the housing market. Second, this is the first study that has focused on the house markets of G7 countries. Third, this study explores the house market efficiency by dividing the market into two periods i.e. before and after the financial crisis. The study strives to investigate if the financial crisis determines the change in the degree of market efficiency or not. Finally, the study gives valuable insights to the investors that will help them in their investment decisions.

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