Momentum anomaly: evidence from the Indian stock market

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Supriya Maheshwari ◽  
Raj Singh Dhankar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the profitability of momentum strategies in the Indian stock market. This study further evaluates whether the momentum effect is a manifestation of size, value or an illiquidity effect. Design/methodology/approach Monthly stock return data of 470 BSE listed stocks over the sample period from January 1997 to March 2013 were used to create extreme portfolios (winner and loser). The returns of extreme portfolios were evaluated using t-statistics and a risk-adjusted measure. Further checks were imposed by controlling for other potential sources of risk including size, value and illiquidity. Findings The study provides support in favor of momentum profitability in the Indian stock market. In contrast to the literature, momentum profitability is driven by winning stocks, and hence, buying past winning stocks generates higher returns than shorting loosing stocks in the Indian stock market. Strong momentum profits were observed even after controlling for size, value and trading volume of stocks. This suggests that the momentum effect in the Indian stock market is not a manifestation of small size effect, value effect or an illiquidity effect. Practical implications From the practitioner’s perspective, the study indicates that a momentum-based investment strategy in the short run is still persistent and can generate potential profits in the Indian stock market. Originality/value There is little empirical evidence on the momentum profitability, especially in the Indian stock market. The study contributes toward the literature by analyzing the momentum profitability even after controlling for size, value and an illiquidity effect. Some aspects of the momentum effect were observed to be dissimilar from those observed in literature for the USA and other countries. Such findings justify the need for testing the momentum profitability in stock markets other than the USA.

Conditional multifactor asset pricing model and market anomalies

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saumya Ranjan Dash ◽  
Jitendra Mahakud
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Size Effect ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Market Anomalies ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the firm-specific anomaly effect and to identify market anomalies that account for the cross-sectional regularity in the Indian stock market. The paper also examines the cross-sectional return predictability of market anomalies after making the firm-specific raw return risk adjusted with respect to the systematic risk factors in the unconditional and conditional multifactor specifications. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs first step time series regression approach to drive the risk-adjusted return of individual firms. For examining the predictability of firm characteristics on the risk-adjusted return, the panel data estimation technique has been used. Findings – There is a weak anomaly effect in the Indian stock market. The choice of a five-factor model (FFM) in its unconditional and conditional specifications is able to capture the book-to-market equity, liquidity and medium-term momentum effect. The size, market leverage and short-run momentum effect are found to be persistent in the Indian stock market even with the alternative conditional specifications of the FFM. The results also suggest that it is naï argue for disappearing size effect in the cross-sectional regularity. Research limitations/implications – Constrained upon the data availability, certain market anomalies and conditioning variables cannot be included in the analysis. Practical implications – Considering the practitioners' prospective, the results indicate that the profitable investment strategy with respect to the small size effect is still persistent and warrants close-ended mutual fund investment portfolio strategy for enhancing the long-term profitability. The short-run momentum effect can generate potential profits given a short-term investment horizon. Originality/value – This paper provides the first-ever empirical evidence from an emerging stock market towards the use of alternative conditional multifactor models for the complete explanation of market anomalies. In an attempt to analyze the anomaly effect in the Indian stock market, this paper provides further evidence towards the long-short hedge portfolio return variations in terms of a wide set of market anomalies that have been documented in prior literature.

Risk-Managed Momentum: An Evidence from Indian Stock Market

2021 ◽  
pp. 231971452110230
Author(s):  
Simarjeet Singh ◽  
Nidhi Walia ◽  
Pradiptarathi Panda ◽  
Sanjay Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Relative Momentum ◽  
Extended Time ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
Time Frames

Relative momentum strategies yield large and substantial profits in the Indian Stock Market. Nevertheless, relative momentum profits are negatively skewed and prone to occasional severe losses. By taking into consideration 450 stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange, the present study predicts the timing of these huge momentum losses and proposes a simple risk-managed momentum approach to avoid these losses. The proposed risk-managed momentum approach not only doubles the adjusted Sharpe ratio but also results in significant improvements in downside risks. In contrast to relative momentum payoffs, risk-managed momentum payoffs remain substantial even in extended time frames. The study’s findings are particularly relevant for asset management companies, fund houses and financial academicians working in the area of asset anomalies.

Intensity of shock transmission amid US-BRICS markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 311-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Lakshmi ◽  
S. Visalakshmi ◽  
Kavitha Shanmugam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the intensity of transmission of shocks from USA to BRICS countries in the long-run and short-run deviations and swiftness of recovery during US subprime mortgage crisis. This analysis enables the authors to explore the evolving patterns of relationships between these markets and examine whether their co-movements altered either in response to international shocks that originated in advanced markets like USA or due to their domestic fluctuations. Design/methodology/approach – Employing data of daily stock market indices (open and close) of BRICS countries for the period January 2, 2001 to May 31, 2012, this paper examines the interactions and characteristics of price movements of BRICS with US market by applying co-integration tests, vector error correction model and Granger causality relationship. The daily stock market indices data are derived from respective stock exchange web sites. Findings – The results exhibit that both long-run co-integration relationships and short-run Granger causality relationships exist between the stock markets of US-BRICS. Furthermore, this nexus is amplified in the short-run during 2007-2009, when the subprime mortgage financial crisis in the USA cropped up. This finding lends support to the prominence of developed (US) market links in the proliferation of persistent co-movements of BRICS stock markets. Research limitations/implications – The findings imply an increasing degree of global market integration due to quick dissemination of global shocks originating from developed market like USA, and swift recovery which can be attributed to the increased resilience, consistent with the moderated level of domestically driven risk in the BRICS markets. In spite of their similarities, long-run and short-run interdependences with the US stock market exhibit differences among the BRICS. This can be attributed to the regional heterogeneity in long-run risk and return co-movements with the USA. Practical implications – Changes from the US index easily affect these stock markets in the short-run, which implies that the US index may act as a leading indicator for investing funds in BRICS markets. Originality/value – This study would enable the authors to understand whether BRICS economies actually remain resilient to adverse developments in USA and could serve as alternative investment destinations for global portfolio diversification.

An empirical study on the dynamic relationship between oil prices and Indian stock market

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarak Nath Sahu ◽  
Kalpataru Bandopadhyay ◽  
Debasish Mondal
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationships between oil price shocks and Indian stock market. Design/methodology/approach – The study used daily data for the period starting from January 2001 to March 2013. In this study, Johansen's cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), Granger causality test, impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decompositions (VDCs) test have been applied to exhibit the long-run and short-run relationship between them. Findings – The cointegration result indicates the existence of long-term relationship. Further, the error correction term of VECM shows a long-run causality moves from Indian stock market to oil price but not the vice versa. The results of the Granger causality test under the VECM framework confirm that no short-run causality between the variables exists. The VDCs analysis revealed that the Indian stock markets and crude oil prices are strongly exogenous. Finally, from the IRFs, analysis revealed that a positive shock in oil price has a small but persistence and growing positive impact on Indian stock markets in short run. Originality/value – The study would enhance the understandings of the interaction between oil price volatilities and emerging stock market performances. Further, the study would enable foreign investors who are interested in Indian stock market helps in understanding the conditional relationship between the variables.

Seasonality in Momentum Profits: Evidence from the Indian Stock Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3and4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Supriya Maheshwari ◽  
Raj S. Dhankar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Us ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Indian Stock Market

The paper investigates Indian momentum profitability along with its performance stability round the year using the stock price data from National Stock Exchange (NSE). Results show evidence in favour of momentum profitability over the sample period from 1997 to 2013. Moreover, the momentum performance is not specific to any particular month suggesting no influence of calendar on momentum anomaly in the Indian stock market, though momentum strategies performed differently in different calendar months, with particularly strong negative returns in the month of May. However, no statistically significant difference was observed among the mean monthly momentum returns across calendar months. Contrary to the US market findings, no January or similar April seasonality is observed in the Indian momentum profits suggesting some unique characteristics of Indian momentum profitability. In nutshell, the results from the study suggest support in favour of practical implementation of momentum strategies throughout the year in the Indian stock market.

Unsystematic Risk Explanation to Momentum Profits in Taiwan

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (01) ◽  
pp. 1250006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ching-Ping Wang ◽  
Hung-Hsi Huang ◽  
Kai-Jei Tu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
Better Than

This study investigates the momentum profits and provides a systematic risk as well as time-varying unsystematic risk explanation, adopting the monthly returns in the Taiwan stock market during 2003–2008 periods. Through the regression models including and combining the CAPM, Fama–French three factor model, GARCH(1,1)-M and TGARCH(1,1)-M, the main results are as follows. First, most of the momentum strategies have not significant positive returns. Next, CAPM as well as Fama and French factors could roughly explain momentum returns. Additionally, it may make some profits likely if the time-varying unsystematic risk is further considered in an investment strategy. Moreover, the return volatility for the portfolio of winners is more sensitive to recent news than the losers. Conversely, the return volatility of the loser is more sensitive to distant news and has a larger response to bad news than the winner. Finally, TGARCH-M related models usually perform better than GARCH-M ones; this infers the presence of leverage effect in Taiwan stock market.

Equity market integration: the new emerging economy of Montenegro

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-306
Author(s):  
Vassilios G. Papavassiliou
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Academic Community ◽  
General Nature ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the level of capital market integration between the Montenegrin stock market and a number of European Union (EU) countries and the USA. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use an equity data set at the daily frequency from 12 countries and 4 broad regions, spanning the period from March 2003 to September 2008. They investigate long-run and short-run dynamics using cointegration techniques, Granger causality tests and vector error correction models. Findings – The authors provide evidence for the existence of a long-run equilibrium between Montenegro and the developed countries of Western Europe and the USA. The investigation of short-run dynamics reveals that Montenegro follows an autonomous path, influenced mainly by domestic developments. Originality/value – This is the first study on the Montenegrin stock market which has been neglected by the academic community. Montenegro’s accession in the EU is imminent; thus the study of the level of its integration with the rest of EU countries, before its actual accession, is useful for regulators and policymakers. Various lessons of a more general nature can also be drawn from the analysis of this paper.

The Effect of Global Crises on Momentum Profitability: Evidence from the Indian Stock Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Supriya Maheshwari ◽  
Raj S. Dhankar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Convincing Evidence ◽  
Momentum Strategy ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
International Stock Markets ◽  
Indian Stock Market

There is a plethora of research that suggests profitability of momentum strategies in international stock markets. The current study adds to the existing literature by exploring the same in the Indian stock market over the more recent years. In addition, the study aims to test whether the momentum strategy performs persistently and remains consistent even during financial crises periods, emphasizing on the recent global meltdown of 2008. Eight momentum strategies were investigated with different combinations of formation and holding period and the study adds convincing evidence in favour of Indian momentum profitability. Statistically as well as economically significant momentum returns were observed that remained statistically significant even after risk adjustment. However, the financial crisis induced significant changes in the Indian momentum profitability. The momentum returns were observed to be positively high during pre-crisis period that turn negative during crisis period and again reverse to generate high momentum returns during the post-crisis period. The evidence indicates non-stability of momentum profits wherein momentum strategies crash during the financial crises periods.

Are Indian Investors Return Chasers? An Anatomy of their Trading Behavior

GIS Business ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 32-44
Author(s):  
Martin Bernard ◽  
Malabika Deo
Keyword(s):  
Equity Returns ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Momentum Strategy ◽  
Price Momentum ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
Indian Context ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Monthly Return ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Momentum has remained an unanswered anomaly in finance literature. Researchers have pointed out two arguments, whether the source of prior return anomalies are rational or behavioral. In this paper, we examined return chasing tendency investors and the profitability of probable price momentum strategy in Indian equity market using the monthly return data of equities represented in BSE-500 index encompassing the time period from July 2004 to Jun 2014. Study is an attempt to analyze momentum effect before, during and after the financial crisis of 2007–2009 to check whether investors continue to follow the same strategy during crisis or their behavior undergoes any change. Also study examined the adequacy of rational CAPM models to explain momentum profits. The result evidenced a strong presence of economically and statistically significant momentum profit in Indian stock market equity returns. Therefore return chasing tendency of Indian investors is found to be persistent in the intermediate horizon in Indian context. Closer observation of the results reveals that, Indian investors are winners chasers rather than investor in past losers. Study also confirmed that investors sentiments are volatile according to general market environment and inadequacy of rationalist equilibrium model to explain momentum profits.

Disposition effect at the market level: evidence from Indian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-82
Author(s):  
Sravani Bharandev ◽  
Sapar Narayan Rao
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Disposition Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Abnormal Trading Volume ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test the disposition effect at market level and propose an appropriate reference point for testing disposition at market level. Design/methodology/approach This is an empirical study conducted on 500 index stocks of NSE500 (National Stock Exchange). Winning and losing days for each stock are calculated using 52-week high and low prices as reference points. To test disposition effect, abnormal trading volumes of stocks are regressed on their percentage of winning (losing) days. Further using ANOVA, the difference between mean of percentage of winning (losing) days of high abnormal trading volume deciles and low abnormal trading volume deciles is tested. Findings Results show that a stock’s abnormal trading volume is positively influenced by the percentage of winning days whereas percentage of losing days show no such effect. Findings are consistent even after controlling for volatility and liquidity. ANOVA results show the presence of high percentage of winning days in higher deciles of abnormal trading volumes and no such pattern in case of losing days confirms the presence of disposition effect. Further an ex post analysis indicates that disposition prone investors accumulate losses. Originality/value This is the first study, which proposes the use of 52-week high and low prices as reference points to test the market-level disposition effect. Findings of this study enhance the limited literature available on disposition effect in emerging markets by providing evidence from Indian stock markets.

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